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  • Book
    New York : Routledge
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: 321 Seiten : , Diagramme
    ISBN: 9781138731967
    Series Statement: Routledge studies in transport analysis 8
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    University of Münster, CIW - Center for Interdisciplinary Economics Münster
    Publication Date: 2016-12-22
    Description: This paper investigates the impact of urban protests on coup attempts in a sample of 39 Sub- Saharan African countries for the period 1990 to 2007. Widespread public discontent, especially when occurring in urban centers, can act as a trigger of coups d'état in autocratic regimes by opening a window of opportunity for leadership removals by the ruling elite. The main difficulty in testing this relationship is that public revolts are rarely exogenous to coup risk. To address this problem, variation in rainfall is used to create an instrument for urban protests. The results show that rainfall-related popular uprisings in urban areas increase the likelihood of a coup attempt and thus help to solve the collective-action problems associated with coup plots.
    Keywords: C26 ; D74 ; P16 ; ddc:330 ; coup d'état ; public protest ; regime change ; autocracy
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    University of Münster, CIW - Center for Interdisciplinary Economics Münster
    Publication Date: 2016-12-22
    Description: We explore the supply side of the market for suicide bombers. While the strategic edge of suicide attacks for certain terrorist organizations has been thoroughly explored, the motivation of the suppliers remains quite mysterious. Following a review of existing theoretical approaches and empirical findings we develop a model of the supply of suicide bombing, the motivation of which is expressive but time inconsistent. The model implies terrorist organizations to provide a commitment device in exchange for the "services'' of those suicide bombers' that do not suffer from any mental or physical burden of life. By contrast, suicide attackers that do suffer from some sufficiently severe burden of life are not reliant on any commitment device and should therefore be expected to more frequently act as lonesome-wolf attackers.
    Keywords: D74 ; D91 ; F52 ; H56 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
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    Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen Göttingen
    Publication Date: 2017-01-12
    Description: We introduce a simple game-theoretical model that captures the main aspects of the repeated interaction between an issuer and a credit-rating agency. It involves up-front payments of issuer-fees and direct publication of requested ratings. Due to pecuniary injuries for untruthful ratings, the creditrating agency should always report truthfully in the subgame perfect equilibrium. Knowing this, the issuer should never request a rating. Conducting laboratory experiments, we find that behavior significantly deviates from the equilibrium prediction in favor of a cooperative solution: issuers frequently do request ratings, which is often reciprocated with untruthful good ratings.
    Keywords: C70 ; C9 ; G0 ; ddc:330 ; game theory ; laboratory experiments ; rating agencies ; regulation
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Mannheim
    Publication Date: 2017-01-13
    Description: We use a dataset of 615 firms which participated in 114 illegal cartels - convicted by the European Commission between 1999 and 2016 - to investigate the determinants of the duration of a firm's participation in a cartel. Applying a Weibull proportional hazard model with a particular focus on the impact of internal and external time-varying determinants, we find that firms show an increased probability to leave a cartel if prior exits occurred as well as in periods of high demand growth. However, we find a reduced exit probability in situations of prior entries to the cartel or in periods of high interest rates. Additional estimations on the cartel level further suggest that firm exits increase the probability of a cartel breakdown substantially.
    Keywords: C41 ; K21 ; L41 ; ddc:330 ; Survival Analysis ; Cartels ; Duration ; European Union
    Language: English
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    Courant Research Centre Poverty, Equity and Growth Göttingen
    Publication Date: 2017-01-14
    Description: In this paper, we investigate how de facto financial globalization has influenced the labor share in developing countries. Our main argument is the need to distinguish between different types of capital in this context, as different forms of foreign investment have different fixed costs and impacts on the host countries' production process and vary concerning their bargaining power vis-à-vis labor. Assuming an aggregate elasticity of substitution between capital and labor would thus be misleading. Our econometric analysis of the impact of foreign direct vs. portfolio investment in a sample of about 40 developing and transition countries after 1992 supports this claim. Using different panel data techniques to address potential endogeneity problems, we find that FDI has a positive effect on the labor share in developing countries, while the impact of portfolio investment is significantly smaller, and potentially negative. Our results also highlight that de facto foreign investment cannot explain the decline of the labor share in developing countries over the investigated period.
    Keywords: C23 ; E25 ; F21 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; Labor Share ; Globalization ; Income Distribution ; International Capital Flows ; FDI ; Wage Bargaining
    Language: English
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    Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics Erlangen
    Publication Date: 2017-01-14
    Description: This paper describes the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel (AWFP). The AWFP is a dataset on labor market flows and stocks for the universe of German estab-lishments. It contains data on job flows, worker flows, and about wages for each establishment. The AWFP contains this information also for partitions of the labor force according to various employee characteristics and for some subgroups of employees. The AWFP covers the time period 1975-2014. All data are available at an annual and quarterly frequency.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; establishment data ; job flows ; worker flows ; wages ; German administrative data
    Language: English
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    Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Mannheim
    Publication Date: 2017-01-13
    Description: This paper examines how local governments adjust their spending, savings and taxes in response to a temporary revenue windfall generated by a housing boom and how they cope with the inevitable shortfall that appears during the bust. We focus on Spanish local governments given the intensity of the last housing boom-bust experienced there and the large share of construction-related revenues they obtain. We find, first, that just a small share of the boom windfall was saved, with revenues being used primarily to increase spending (above all, current spending) and (to a lesser extent) to cut taxes. Second, we find that the failure to save during the boom is higher in places with less informed voters and more contested elections. Third, we also examine the what happens during the bust, and find that these governments had to cut abruptly their spending (above all, capital), raise taxes, and allow deficits to grow. Finally, in places wit less informed voters and more contested elections local governments had more trouble in adjusting during the bust, and they tend to rely more on spending cuts than on tax increases.
    Keywords: E62 ; H72 ; R5 ; ddc:330 ; tax volatility ; forward-looking behaviour ; voter information
    Language: English
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    Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW) Berlin
    Publication Date: 2017-01-14
    Description: Wie viel Zeit Menschen in ihre Erwerbsarbeit investieren wollen, können und müssen ist nicht nur für den Einzelnen, sondern auch für eine Ökonomie als Ganzes von zentraler Bedeutung. Doch je nach Studie und zugrundeliegendem Datensatz ergibt sich ein heterogenes Bild zur Über- und Unterbeschäftigung in Deutschland. Diesem Phänomen und seinen Ursachen geht der nachfolgende Bericht nach.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:report
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    Kingston (Ontario): Queen's University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2017-01-18
    Description: We consider truncated (or conditional) sum of squares estimation of a parametric model composed of a fractional time series and an additive generalized polynomial trend. Both the memory parameter, which characterizes the behaviour of the stochastic component of the model, and the exponent parameter, which drives the shape of the deterministic component, are considered not only unknown real numbers, but also lying in arbitrarily large (but finite) intervals. Thus, our model captures different forms of nonstationarity and noninvertibility. As in related settings, the proof of consistency (which is a prerequisite for proving asymptotic normality) is challenging due to non-uniform convergence of the objective function over a large admissible parameter space, but, in addition, our framework is substantially more involved due to the competition between stochastic and deterministic components. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality under quite general circumstances, finding that results differ crucially depending on the relative strength of the deterministic and stochastic components.
    Keywords: C22 ; ddc:330 ; Asymptotic normality ; consistency ; deterministic trend ; fractional process ; generalized polynomial trend ; noninvertibility ; nonstationarity ; truncated sum of squares estimation
    Language: English
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    Düsseldorf: Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-19
    Description: The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment. But this decline is much sharper in import-competing than in export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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    Dresden: Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-19
    Description: This paper investigates the effects of international trade in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms where a welfare state redistributes income. We look at a very stylised progressive non-distortionary redistribution scheme. We show that for a given tax rate international trade increases income per capita, but also leads to higher income inequality. Two aspects of income inequality are examined. First, inter-group inequality between managers and workers is considered. Second, intra-group inequality within the group of managers is investigated. For a given tax rate the size of the welfare state and therefore the transfer per capita increases when going from autarky to trade. This second-round effect counteracts the primary increase in inequality, yet cannot outweigh it. Since the redistribution scheme is non-distortionary, it is possible to decrease trade-induced inequality by increasing the tax rate without jeopardising the gains from trade.
    Keywords: D31 ; F12 ; F16 ; H24 ; H25 ; ddc:330 ; International trade ; Income inequality ; Redistribution ; Heterogeneous firms
    Language: English
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-19
    Description: In a small open developing country context, the author considers a three-sector general equilibrium framework and tries to find out the effects of foreign capital inflow on welfare of the country. Comparative-static results show that foreign capital inflow widens the skilled-unskilled wage gap under some reasonable conditions, although it causes an expansion of the foreign enclave and the agricultural sector and contraction of the domestic manufacturing sector. Taking sector specific foreign capital, the author finds that foreign direct investment is beneficial in a small open economy in the absence of tariffs.
    Keywords: D50 ; D60 ; F4 ; F63 ; O11 ; ddc:330 ; foreign capital ; small open economy ; welfare ; tariff ; economic development
    Language: English
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    Göttingen: Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
    Publication Date: 2017-01-19
    Description: According to a growing body of empirical literature, global shocks have become less important for business cycles in industrialized countries and emerging market economies since the mid-1980s. In this paper, we analyze the question of what might have caused a decoupling from the global business cycle: the smaller size of the global shocks or a reduced sensitivity of national business cycles to these shocks? To this end, we employ a large scale hierarchical dynamic factor model that decomposes the growth rates of GDP, consumption, and investment for 106 countries over 1961-2014 into a global, a group-, and a country-specific factor, as well as an idiosyncratic component. The factor loadings and conditional variances are allowed to vary over time according to random walk processes. Instead of assuming that the parameters change, we test for time variation using a Bayesian stochastic model specification search. Our results confirm a reduction in the importance of the global business cycle for the vast majority of our countries. However, the sensitivity of most countries to global or group-specific shocks as measured by the factor loadings has not changed over time. Instead, the magnitude of the global shocks relative to group-specific and country-specific shocks has decreased, resulting in a lower relevance of global shocks for national cycles.
    Keywords: F44 ; C52 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; global business cycle ; dynamic factor model ; time-varying parameter ; stochastic volatility ; model selection
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt am Main: SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
    Publication Date: 2017-01-20
    Description: Studies of cooperation in infinitely repeated matching games focus on homogeneous economies, where full cooperation is efficient and any defection is collectively sanctioned. Here we study heterogeneous economies where occasional defections are part of efficient play, and show how to support those outcomes through contagious punishments
    Keywords: C6 ; C7 ; ddc:330 ; cooperation ; repeated games ; social dilemmas
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt am Main: SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
    Publication Date: 2017-01-20
    Description: People who delay claiming Social Security receive higher lifelong benefits upon retirement. We survey individuals on their willingness to delay claiming later, if they could receive a lump sum in lieu of a higher annuity payment. Using a moment-matching approach, we calibrate a lifecycle model tracking observed claiming patterns under current rules and predict optimal claiming outcomes under the lump sum approach. Our model correctly predicts that early claimers under current rules would delay claiming most when offered actuarially fair lump sums, and for lump sums worth 87% as much, claiming ages would still be higher than at present.
    Keywords: G11 ; G22 ; H55 ; J26 ; J32 ; ddc:330 ; annuity ; delayed retirement ; lifetime income ; pension ; early retirement ; social security
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt am Main: SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
    Publication Date: 2017-01-20
    Description: The international diffusion of technology plays a key role in stimulating global growth and explaining co-movements of international equity returns. Existing empirical evidence suggests that countries are heterogeneous in their attitude toward innovation: Some countries rely more on technology adoption while other countries rely more on internal technology production. European countries that rely more on adoption are also typically characterized by lower fiscal policy exibility and higher labor market rigidity. We develop a two-country model - where both countries rely on R&D and adoption - to study the short-run and long-run effects of aggregate technology and adoption probability shocks on economic growth in the presence of the aforementioned asymmetries. Our framework suggests that an increase in the ability to adopt technology from abroad stimulates economic growth in the country that benefits from higher adoption rates but the beneficial effects also spread to the foreign country. Moreover, it helps explaining the differences in macro quantities and equity returns observed in the international data.
    Keywords: E3 ; F3 ; F4 ; G12 ; ddc:330 ; technology adoption ; R&D investment ; asymmetric tax regimes ; asset prices
    Language: English
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    Münster: Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Institut für Genossenschaftswesen (IfG)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-21
    Description: Genossenschaftsbanken sind de jure zur Mitgliederförderung verpflichtet. Insbesondere in Phasen strategischer Veränderungen, wie etwa im Zuge von Fusionen, darf der Förderauftrag nicht vernachlässigt werden. Überraschenderweise widmet sich die bisherige Literatur dem Förderauftrag im Zusammenhang mit einer Fusion lediglich in wenigen Fällen in direkter und ausführlicher Weise. Oftmals stehen stattdessen andere Aspekte im Vordergrund. Dass der Förderauftrag aber wesentlich durch eine Fusion beeinflusst werden kann, zeigt die vorliegende Literaturstudie unter Verwendung des MemberValue-Konzeptes nach THEURL (2002) auf. Im Zuge einer Fusion kommen mehrere Wirkungskanäle zum Tragen, deren Wirkungsrichtung jedoch nicht immer eindeutig bestimmbar ist (Teil I und Teil II der Literaturstudie). Der Erfolg einer Fusion aus Sicht der Mitglieder bedarf daher einer umfangreichen Berücksichtigung der möglichen Wirkungen, da es sich mit dem Förderauftrag um das einzige Differenzierungsmerkmal zu den Wettbewerbern im Markt handelt. Als Konsequenz dieser Ergebnisse wird ein begleitendes MemberValue-Management während des gesamten Fusionsprozesses als notwendig erachtet (Teil II der Literaturstudie).
    Description: Cooperative banks are required by law to create a value for their members. Particularly in times of strategic changes - especially in a merger - this goal cannot be ignored. Surprisingly, only a few authors deal with this topic and study the role of the member value in case of a merger in detail. Instead, research efforts focus much more on other aspects of a merger. This literature study aims to close this research gap by using THEURL'S concept of a member value. The study shows that mergers have quite an impact on the member value and affect many of its dimensions in a positive or negative way (part I and part II of the literature study). Therefore, cooperative banks should consider all possible effects in their merger plans to remain the member value as a crucial competitive advantage for the future. As a result the merger management should be complemented by a member value management (part II of the literature study).
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Hamburg: Hamburgisches WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-21
    Description: Die Gesamtstudie hatte zum Ziel, die Trias zwischen elterlicher, insbesondere mütterlicher, Erwerbstätigkeit, dem Schulsystem und dem kindlichen Schulerfolg zu untersuchen. Schulerfolg wird in den Hauptschätzungen als höchster erreichter bzw. erwarteter Schulabschluss und in den Sensitivitätsanalysen als Notendurchschnitt spezifiziert. Der erste Projektbericht behandelt den Zusammenhang zwischen elterlicher Erwerbstätigkeit und dem kindlichen Schulerfolg, während im zweiten Bericht der Fokus auf den moderierenden Effekten des Schulsystems liegt. Zudem wurde im zweiten Bericht zum Eltern-Kind-Zusammenhang auch ein Ländervergleich mit Schweden angestellt. Das Quellenverzeichnis für beide Berichte zusammen findet sich ganz am Ende dieser Studie.
    Description: Die Autoren danken dem Bundesministerium für Arbeit und Soziales (BMAS) für die finanzielle Förderung dieser Studie. Die Studie basiert auf Projektbericht 1 vom 5. Mai 2015, Projektbericht 2 vom 30. Oktober 2015 und einer Zusammenfassung beider Berichte vom 1. Dezember 2015 in deutscher und englischer Sprache.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:report
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie
    Publication Date: 2017-01-24
    Description: During the 2016 election to the Student Parliament of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), an experiment on 'The Third Vote' was conducted. The goal was to test an alternative election method based on the idea of internet voting advice applications (VAAs). Under the election method tested, the voters cast no direct votes for candidate parties; rather, they are asked about their preferences on the policy issues as declared in the party manifestos. These embedded referenda measure the degree to which the parties' positions match the policy preferences of the electorate. The parliament seats are then distributed among the parties in proportion to their indices of representativeness: popularity (the average percentage of the population represented on all the issues) and universality (frequency in representing a majority). The Third Vote Experiment reveals that the critical point is the selection of questions: unless they draw sufficient distinctions between the parties, it can cause a malfunction of both the VAA and the VAA-based election method. To solve this problem, this paper develops a model for contrasting as much as possible between the parties by maximizing the total distance between the party policy profiles while simultaneously reducing the number of questions. The guaranteed best solution is obtained by means of an exhaustive search on all the possible combinations of m out of n initial questions. However, since this search is cumbersome, a stepwise removal of questions is proposed. This alternative is shown to offer a good compromise between formal rigor and computational efficiency.
    Keywords: D71 ; ddc:330 ; policy representation ; elections ; theory of voting ; feature selection ; variable selection
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: We study goal setting using a randomized field experiment involving 1092 first-year undergraduate students. Students have private mentor-student meetings during the year. We instructed a random subset of mentors to encourage students to set a course-specific grade goal during one of the mentor-student meetings (goal treatment). A random subset of those mentors was further instructed to challenge students to set more ambitious goals if deemed appropriate (raise treatment). We find that students in the goal treatment perform significantly better as compared to students in the control group, and more so when they performed poorly prior to the experiment. Next, we find that students in the raise treatment do not perform significantly different from the control group. Finally, students who set a goal and are challenged to set a more ambitious goal perform significantly worse than comparable students in the goal treatment.
    Keywords: C93 ; I23 ; ddc:330 ; Goal setting ; motivation ; education ; field experiments
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: Low probability events are overweighted in the pricing of out-of-the-money index puts and single stock calls. This behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, and is linked to equity market sentiment and higher moments of the risk-neutral density. We _nd that our implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure, jointly derived from index and single stock options, explains investors' overweight of tail events well. When employed within a trading strategy, our IV-sentiment measure delivers economically signi_cant results, which are more consistent than the ones produced by the market sentiment factor. Out-of-sample tests on reversal prediction show that our IV-sentiment measure adds value over and above traditional factors in the equity risk premium literature.
    Keywords: G12 ; G14 ; G17 ; ddc:330 ; Sentiment ; implied volatility skew ; equity-risk premium ; reversals ; predictability
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: We test the hypothesis, based on popular and theoretical perspectives, that entrepreneurs are more action-oriented than other occupational groups. We compare their playing strategies in an optimal stopping game using a randomized online experiment among 100s of entrepreneurs, managers and employees. Our experimental results show that entrepreneurs are indeed more action-oriented than others. We theorize that this is driven by their lower levels of loss aversion and higher levels of curiosity. Our empirical test results show that (i) entrepreneurs score indeed higher, on average, than managers and employees on curiosity and lower on loss aversion; (ii) the di fference in action-orientedness between entrepreneurs and others vanishes when controlling for individual curiosity levels and (iii) an alternative treatment that provides subjects with counterfactual information (about what would have happened in case of stopping) increases their willingness to stop. Under some assumptions, the combination of these results leads to the conclusion that the higher action-orientedness of entrepreneurs can be linked to their greater curiosity, but not to their lower level of loss aversion. Hence, we find support for the intuitive idea that (curiosity driven) action-orientedness enhances the identi fication and/or exploitation of opportunities.
    Keywords: L26 ; C93 ; D03 ; ddc:330 ; Entrepreneurs ; Managers ; Employees ; Inaction ; Curiosity ; Loss aversion ; Lab-in-the field experiment
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: We study the impact of early cannabis use on the school to work transition of young men. Our empirical approach accounts for common unobserved confounders that jointly affect selection into cannabis use and the transition from school to work using a multivariate mixed proportional hazard framework in which unobserved heterogeneities are drawn from a discrete mixing distribution. Extended models account for school leavers' option of returning to school rather than starting work as a competing risk. We find that early cannabis use leads young men to accept job offers more quickly and at a lower wage rate compared to otherwise similar males who did not use cannabis. These effects are present only for those who use cannabis for longer than a year before leaving school. Overall, our findings are consistent with a mechanism whereby early non-experimental cannabis use leads to greater impatience in initial labor market decision-making.
    Keywords: C41 ; I12 ; J01 ; ddc:330 ; multivariate duration models ; discrete factors ; cannabis use ; job search ; wages
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: The depreciation of the Hungarian forint in 2009 left Hungarian borrowers with a skyrocketing value of foreign currency debt. The resulting losses worsened debt overhang in to debt-ridden firms and eroded bank capital. Therefore, although Hungarian banks had partially isolated their balance sheets from exchange rate risk by extending FX-denominated loans, the ensuing debt overhang in borrowing firms exposed the banks to elevated credit risk. Firms, households and banks had run up the open FX-positions hoping to profit from low foreign rates in the run-up to Euro adoption. This example of carry trade in emerging Europe motivates our analysis of currency mismatch losses in different sectors in the economy, and the macroconsequences of reallocating losses from the corporate to the banking sector ex post. We develop a small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model that accounts for the implications of domestic currency depreciation for corporate debt overhang and incorporates an active banking sector with financial frictions. The model, calibrated to the Hungarian economy, shows that, in periods of unanticipated depreciation, allocating currency mismatch losses to the banking sector generates a milder recession than if currency mismatch is placed at credit constrained firms. The government can intervene to reduce aggregate losses even further by recapitalizing banks and thus mitigating the effects of currency mismatch losses on credit supply.
    Keywords: E44 ; F41 ; P2 ; ddc:330 ; Debt overhang ; foreign currency debt ; leveraged banks ; small open economy ; Hungary
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: This paper provides technical documentation to a database built up from firm-level sources titled Micro moments database(MMD) that is made available for researchers through Eurostat. The MMD is an internationally harmonized research database of statistical moments collected from linked longitudinal firm-level data in a large selection of EU national statistical offices. The underlying sources for the database are business registers, firm-level surveys on production, usage of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) and innovative activities, as well as recorded information on trade and worker education, all linked at the firm level. The unit of observation in the MMD represents groups of firms within industries and allows research that bridges micro and macro analysis. The paper delineates the type of research questions that uniquely can be addressed with the MMD, and the advantages and disadvantages of using MMD for questions where alternative datasets are available. The paper next presents the methodology underlying construction of the MMD and provides documentation of the rich set of features. Finally, the paper provides descriptive statistics that highlight the unique character of the data and reviews some of the cross-country analytical work already conducted using the MMD.
    Keywords: D2 ; E2 ; F1 ; J2 ; L2 ; O3 ; ddc:330 ; Innovation ; ICT ; Productivity ; Intangible Investment ; linked firm-level datasets
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: We study welfare effects of public short-time compensation (STC) in a model in which firms respond to idiosyncratic profitability shocks by adjusting employment and hours per worker. Introducing STC substantially improves welfare by mitigating distortions caused by public unemployment insurance (UI), but only if firms have access to private insurance. Otherwise firms respond to low profitability by combining layoffs with long hours for remaining workers, rather than by taking up STC. Optimal STC is substantially less generous than UI even when firms have access to private insurance, and equally generous STC is worse than not offering STC at all.
    Keywords: J65 ; ddc:330 ; Short-Time Compensation ; Unemployment Insurance ; Welfare
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute
    Publication Date: 2017-01-25
    Description: We study the economic effects of place-based policies in the housing market taking into account search frictions. Theory indicates that beneficial policies increase house prices, but temporarily reduce sales times of owner-occupied properties. We investigate both effects for a place-based programme that improved public housing in 83 impoverished neighbourhoods throughout the Netherlands. We combine a first-difference approach with a fuzzy regression-discontinuity design to address the fundamental issue that these neighbourhoods are endogenously treated. Place-based policies increase house prices with 3.5 percent and, in line with theory, temporarily reduce sales times with 20 percent. The sales time effect dissipates within 7.5 years. The programme’s welfare benefits to homeowners are sizeable and at least half of the value of investments in public housing.
    Keywords: R30 ; R33 ; R38 ; ddc:330 ; amenities ; housing market ; search frictions ; house price ; sales time ; place-based policies
    Language: English
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    Dresden: Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-26
    Description: In many federal countries, local governments run large deficits, even when fiscal supervision by state authorities is tight. I investigate to which extent party alignment of governments and fiscal supervisors influences budget deficits. The dataset includes 427 German local governments for the period 2000-2004. I exploit a period after a far-reaching institutional reform that entirely re-distributed political powers on both the government level and the fiscal supervisor level. Results do not show that party alignments of governments and supervisors (co-partisanship) drive short-term deficits. Instead, I find that the ideology of partisan governments and supervisors matters: left-wing local governments run higher deficits than their right-wing counterparts; left-wing supervisors tolerate higher deficits than right-wing supervisors. These findings imply that political independence for fiscal supervisors is recommended.
    Keywords: H62 ; H74 ; H77 ; ddc:330 ; Local government ; Budget deficits ; Fiscal supervision ; Partisan cycle
    Language: English
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-26
    Description: Commercial banks across the world have been implementing the Basel III accord, which is the most important international response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Particularly, the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) introduced by the Basel III accord is the first global standard for banking liquidity management. Does this requirement work? And what macroeconomic effects does it produce? In order to address such crucial issues, the author develops a stock-flow consistent (SFC)/agent-based computational economic (ACE) model. As he knows, there is a real danger that the requirement restricts the availability of bank credit and hence reducing economic activity. However, in comparison to the prior works, the author finds that the externality is presented as a positive self-reinforcing feedback process, which causes the macroeconomic conditions to spiral downwards. This dynamic feedback process that hardly can be revealed by the current macroeconomic models based on equilibrium analyses. The results also shed some light on the fact that credit creation substantially affects economic activity and macroeconomic stability, as the fundamental reason leading to the results. Therefore, the bank as the driver of credit creation is crucial in an economy, and meanwhile bank regulations have great potential impacts on entire economy rather than only in the bank sector itself.
    Keywords: E27 ; E44 ; E51 ; E32 ; G01 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; credit creation ; liquidity coverage ratio ; bank regulation ; economic stability ; agentbased macroeconomics ; stock-flow consistency ; business cycle ; crisis
    Language: English
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    Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI
    Publication Date: 2017-01-26
    Description: Informelle Konsultationen sind bedeutend dafür, wie sich Innovationsprojekten in Unternehmen entwickeln. Ob und wer informell eingebunden wird, wird bisher primär ausgehend von bestehenden Beziehungen erklärt. Daneben finden sich Ansätze, die Begegnungen für relevant erklären. Ich werde argumentieren, dass es einer differenzierten Betrachtung dieser Begegnungen bedarf, um zu verstehen, welche Begegnungen zu Konsultationen führen, und welche nicht. Dazu werde ich Begegnungen als soziale Situationen konzipieren. Daran anschließend werde ich eine empirische Untersuchung und die damit gewonnenen Erkenntnisse vorstellen. Ich werde am empirischen Material zeigen, dass sich das Zustandekommen von etwa der Hälfte aller aufgezeichneten Konsultationen maßgeblich auf bestimmte Situationen zurückführen lässt, die ich am Material typisieren kann. Abschließend werde ich zeigen, dass gerade die gelegentlichen Konsultationen von besonderem Wert für die Entwicklung der Innovationsprojekte sind.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Berlin: Freie Universität Berlin
    Publication Date: 2017-01-26
    Description: This paper examines the implications of habit formation in private and public consumption for the Pareto-efficient provision of public goods, based on a two-period model with nonlinear taxation. If the public good supply is time-invariant, the presence of habit formation generally alters the standard rules for public good provision. In contrast, if the public good is a flow-variable such that the government directly decides on the level of the public good in each period, habit formation leads to a modification of the first best Samuelson condition only if the degrees of habituation differ for private and public consumption. Since habit formation affects the incentives to relax the self-selection constraint through public good provision, however, habituation alters the second-best analogue to the Samuelson condition also when the degrees of habituation in private and public consumption coincide.
    Keywords: D60 ; H21 ; H41 ; ddc:330 ; public good provision ; Samuelson condition ; habit formation ; optimal taxation
    Language: English
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-26
    Description: In wenigen Jahren haben abgesehen von Bayern und Sachsen alle Länder die Sätze der Grunderwerbsteuer deutlich erhöht. Es gibt empirische Evidenz, dass die Steuersatz-anhebungen durch Verhaltensreaktionen zu niedrigeren Immobilienumsätzen geführt haben. Durch die gesonderte Berücksichtigung der Grunderwerbsteuer im Länderfinanzausgleich werden negative fiskalische Effekte der Verhaltensreaktionen zum Teil ausgeglichen, so dass ein Anreiz für zusätzliche Steuersatzanhebungen besteht. Die Studie quantifiziert die Effekte von Verhaltensreaktionen und zeigt in verschiedenen Szenarien das Zusammenspiel mit dem Länderfinanzausgleich auf.
    Keywords: H21 ; H77 ; R31 ; ddc:330 ; Länderfinanzausgleich ; Grunderwerbsteuer ; Verhaltensreaktionen
    Language: German
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-28
    Description: This paper sets the background for the Special Issue of the Journal of Empirical Finance on the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. It identifies the channel through which risks in the financial industry leaked into the public sector. It discusses the role of the bank rescues in igniting the sovereign debt crisis and reviews approaches to detect early warning signals to anticipate the buildup of crises. It concludes with a discussion of potential implications of sovereign distress for financial markets.
    Keywords: G01 ; G15 ; G21 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; sovereign debt crisis ; systemic risk ; contagion ; bank bail-outs ; financial regulation
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-28
    Description: Low probability events are overweighted in the pricing of out-of-the-money index puts and single stock calls. We find that this behavioral bias is strongly time-varying, linked to equity market sentiment, and higher moments of the risk-neutral density. An implied volatility (IV) sentiment measure that is jointly derived from index and single stock options explains investors' overweight of tail events the best. Our findings also suggest that IV-sentiment predicts equity markets reversals better than overweight of small probabilities itself. When employed in a trading strategy, IV-sentiment delivers economically significant results, which are more consistent than the ones produced by the market sentiment factor. The joint use of information from the single stock and index option markets seems to explain the forecasting power of IVsentiment. Out-of-sample tests on reversal prediction show that our IV-sentiment measure adds value over and above traditional factors in the equity risk premium literature, especially as an equity-buying signal. This reversals prediction seems to improve time-series and cross-sectional momentum strategies.
    Keywords: G12 ; G14 ; G17 ; ddc:330 ; sentiment ; implied volatility skew ; equity-risk premium ; reversals ; predictability
    Language: English
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-28
    Description: Although there is a wide consensus that rating agencies have frequently failed to predict major crises, the literature on sovereign ratings has so far mostly focused on explaining the rating level rather than explaining the timing of the rating decision. In this paper we aim to fill this gap in the literature. Moreover, we go beyond the previous literature by explicitly differentiating between a decision to assess a country and the actual rating decision. Thereby, we take rational inattention of rating agencies into account that should exist due to the cognitive and informational costs of a reassessment. Exploiting information of rating announcements, we can show that (i) the differentiation between the two decision processes significantly improves the model explaining rating decisions; (ii) rating agencies take many nonfundamental factors in their decision to reassess a country into account; (iii) markets only react to ratings if these ratings supply genuinely new information; and (iv) that developed country get preferential treatment.
    Keywords: C25 ; F34 ; G24 ; ddc:330 ; rating agencies ; sovereign risk ; rational inattention
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University, Center for Financial Studies (CFS)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-28
    Description: This paper investigates whether the overpricing of out-of-the money single stock calls can be explained by Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) cumulative prospect theory (CPT). We argue that these options are overpriced because investors overweight small probability events and overpay for such positively skewed securities, i.e., characteristics of lottery tickets. We match a set of subjective density functions derived from risk-neutral densities, including CPT with the empirical probability distribution of U.S. equity returns. We find that overweighting of small probabilities embedded in CPT explains on average the richness of out-of-the money single stock calls better than other utility functions. The degree that agents overweight small probability events is, however, strongly timevarying and has a horizon effect, which implies that it is less pronounced in options of longer maturity. We also find that time-variation in overweighting of small probabilities is strongly explained by market sentiment, as in Baker and Wurgler (2006).
    Keywords: G02 ; G12 ; ddc:330 ; Cumulative prospect theory ; Market sentiment ; Risk-neutral densities ; Call options
    Language: English
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    Gelsenkirchen: Institut Arbeit und Technik (IAT)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-28
    Description: "Das" Quartier existiert nicht - es geht um mein und dein Quartier. Das Fundament für jede Art von Quartiersentwicklung ist die Quartiersidentität. Das Quartier ist kein Selbstläufer, es braucht Moderation und Unterstützung um Identität und Strukturen herauszubilden. Versorgungssicherheit ist nur eine Seite, für viele ältere Menschen sind eine funktionierende Nachbarschaft und soziale Teilhabe wichtiger als der Supermarkt um die Ecke. Wohnortnahe Unterstützungs-, Teilhabe- und Versorgungsstrukturen können den längeren Verbleib Älterer in der eigenen Wohnung ermöglichen und damit zur Kostenvermeidung ebenso beitragen wie zur ortsnahen Nachfragestabilisierung. QuartiersentwicklerInnen sehen sich häufig einer Vielzahl unterschiedlicher Ansprüche und Erwartungen ausgesetzt, die nicht zu erfüllen sind. Eindeutige Zielvorstellungen und Rückendeckung durch die Kommune erleichtern die Aufgabe.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Freiburg: Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge
    Publication Date: 2017-01-28
    Description: Traditionally, households have been seen as acting as a single unit when it comes to savings. Although this might be correct for some parts of household savings, we question the correctness of the unitary model with respect to non-mandatory retirement savings. Therefore we analyze the intra-household allocation of retirement savings between partners in Germany taking an individualistic approach.First, the decision to save at all is analyzed using a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model, showing that the possession of retirement saving accounts among spouses is positively correlated, hinting at a "crowding-in" of saving accounts. However, this could be only due to some tax reasons. Thus, we analyze additionally the interaction of savings between spouses using three-stage least squares, allowing for endogeneity between the spouse's savings. These results additionally show a "crowding-in" of total retirement savings amounts between spouses, probably due to some "peer effect". The unitary model of household decision making can thus be rejected with respect to retirement savings.
    Keywords: D14 ; D91 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; savings ; intra-household allocation ; retirement ; life-cycle ; unitary model ; savings ; three-stage least squares
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2017-01-31
    Description: In recent years, the German banking sector has overcome major challenges such as the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. This paper analyses a recent development as a particular determinant of the future outlook for the German banking sector. Interest rates are at historically low levels and may remain at these levels for a considerable period of time. Such levels pose a specific challenge to banks which are heavily dependent on interest income, as is the case for most German banks. We consider different interest rate scenarios and analyse the extent to which they cause a further narrowing of the interest rate margin. Our results indicate that a projected decline in this margin will result in no more than 20% of German banks earning a cost of capital of 8% by the end of this decade. This decline is somewhat alleviated by the fact that German banks can apply a special feature of German accounting standards by using hidden and open reserves.
    Keywords: G21 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; German banking sector ; low interest period ; profitability ; hidden and open reserves
    Language: English
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    Elmshorn: Nordakademie
    Publication Date: 2017-01-31
    Description: Wirtschaftsingenieure sind in der Praxis erfolgreich, leisten jedoch aus ihrem Kerngebiet der Integration von Ökonomie und Technologie heraus keine signifikanten Beiträge zum wissenschaftlichen Fortschritt. Angesichts dieser Beobachtung verfolgt die Deutsche Akademie für Technikwissenschaften das Ziel, eine neue Forschungsdisziplin zu gründen, die sich aus einer wissenschaftlich fundierten Vernetzung ökonomischer und technologischer Aspekte in den Integrationsgebieten des Wirtschaftsingenieurwesens speist. Als Grundlage einer solchen Vernetzung der Einzeldisziplinen schlägt der vorliegende Beitrag die Systemtheorie vor und begründet dies.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-31
    Description: The Social Progress Protocol is a proposal formulated by the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC). It is a response to judicial decisions of the European Court of Justice on the relationship between fundamental freedoms and collective social rights. The proposal essentially demands a supplementing of European primary law in a way that gives precedence to fundamental social rights in the event of a conflict of laws. This paper underscores the justification of the goals pursued by the Social Progress Protocol and makes suggestions on how it can be developed further. The suggestion consists of two parts. The first part suggests that it is the ambit of European fundamental freedoms that should be focused on rather than the general prioritizing of collective social rights. The second part recommends that the proposal for an activation of European legislation in matters involving collective bargaining rights be dispensed with.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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    Erlangen: Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: In this paper, we analyze the connection between value added, wages, and labor market ows at the establishment level. For this purpose, we first develop a simple model to illustrate the expected comovement of these variables. For the empirical analysis, we link the new German Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel (AWFP) dataset to the IAB Establishment Panel survey. We show that establishments' hires rates have a positive and separations rates a negative comovement with establishment-specific value added, whereby hires react by more than separations. Our estimation results point towards inefficient separation behavior in some parts of the economy. In addition, we provide evidence that establishments' partial equilibrium reaction is an important driver for aggregate labor market dynamics.
    Keywords: E24 ; E32 ; J64 ; ddc:330 ; labor market flows ; value added ; wages ; administrative data ; establishments
    Language: English
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    Erlangen: Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Institute for Economics
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the establishment level using the new German AWFP dataset spanning from 1975-2014. We find that worker turnover moves more procyclical than job turnover. This procyclical worker churn takes place along the entire employment growth distribution of establishments. We show that these procyclical conditional worker flows result almost exclusively from job-tojob transitions. Growing establishments fuel their employment growth by poaching workers from other establishments as the boom matures. At the same time, non-growing establishments replace these workers by hiring from other establishments and non-employment.
    Keywords: E32 ; J23 ; J63 ; ddc:330 ; job flows ; worker flows ; aggregate fluctuations
    Language: English
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    Berlin: Forschungsinstitut für Bildungs- und Sozialökonomie (FiBS)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-31
    Description: Der Bedarf an Weiterbildung wird in den kommenden Jahren weiter steigen. In einem sich weiter beschleunigenden Wirtschaftsumfeld wird sie auch regelmäßiger bzw. kontinuierlicher stattfinden müssen und es dürften häufiger grundlegendere "berufliche Neuorientierungen" erforderlich werden. Zudem haben 6,5 Mio. Erwerbstätige keine abgeschlossene Berufsausbildung. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Jena: Ernst-Abbe-Hochschule Jena, Fachbereich Betriebswirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: Im Rahmen des Bologna-Prozesses hat die Kultusministerkonferenz im Jahr 2004 beschlossen, dass alle Studiengänge an den deutschen Hochschulen akkreditiert werden müssen. Der Umfang der öffentlichen Diskussion und der juristischen Auseinandersetzungen sowie die Höhe der Kosten machen deutlich, dass eine intensivere Analyse hinsichtlich Sinn und Zweck einer solchen Zwangsakkreditierung angebracht sind. Die folgenden Ausführungen erläutern die zentralen inhaltlichen und empirischen Gesichtspunkte. Als Ergebnis ist festzustellen: Es existieren keinerlei empirisch fundierten Untersuchungen, ob überhaupt und wenn ja inwieweit die Qualität von Studiengängen von deren Akkreditierung beeinflusst wird. Dies gilt ebenfalls für die Behauptung, die Attraktivität von Studiengängen würde durch die Akkreditierung erhöht. Sicher ist hingegen, dass sie zu erheblichen Kosten führt. Darüber hinaus handelt es sich um eine Scheinlösung, die unter Umständen völlig willkürliche und unsystematische inhaltliche Veränderungen in den Studiengängen zur Folge hat. Dies vor allem, weil offensichtlich jeder Versuch, klar zu definieren, was unter Qualität in diesem Kontext zu verstehen ist, scheitern muss. Schließlich ist bemerkenswert, dass die Akkreditierung intern von ihren Befürwortern an den Hochschulen nur noch mit dem Argument verteidigt wird, dass sie im Vergleich zur Aufsicht durch die Kultusministerien das kleinere Übel darstellt. Als hochschulpolitische Konsequenz ergibt sich, dass die in den Bundesländern zum Teil in den Hochschulgesetzen festgeschriebenen verpflichtenden Akkreditierungen aller Studiengänge durch Kann-Vorschriften ersetzt werden sollten, um die Akkreditierung in die Hochschulautonomie fallen zu lassen (= Optionalakkreditierung). Als Mindestanforderung einer rationalen Hochschulpolitik ist die Durchführung einer evidenzbasierten Evaluierung einzufordern, die eine valide empirische Bestandsaufnahme und belastbare Wirkungsanalysen umfasst. Das vorliegende Papier ist die Langfassung der inhaltlichen Argumente der 'Jenaer Erklärung' vom August 2016.
    Keywords: I21 ; I23 ; I28 ; ddc:330 ; Akkreditierung ; Hochschulen ; Fachhochschulen ; Universitäten ; Qualität ; Deutschland ; Akkreditierungsrat ; Akkreditierungskommission ; Bologna-Prozess
    Language: German
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    Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: [Introduction] Inherent in its conception, the smart specialisation approach carries an intrinsic tension between its alleged place-based nature at the meso-level of regions and the fact that it was derived from theoretical premises that derive from the analysis of competition between nations (Foray et al. 2009; 2011). Implicitly, therefore, it presupposes a certain degree of completeness and variety in economic and innovation systems as is commonly assumed in international comparative analysis between nations – debatable as this suggestion may in itself be. Obviously, the actual innovation systems of European regions are often much more fragmented (Capello and Kroll 2016; Isaksen 2014; Kroll 2015; Technopolis et al. 2012; Tödtling and Trippl 2005). At the same time, it borrows concept of exploration and discovery from the analysis of the world of business (Hausman and Rodrik 2003) which cannot easily be transferred to the world of governance, leave alone government. While, possibly, it can most easily be read as promoting the public triggering of such processes where their absence constitutes an obstacle to economic development and their better guidance in others (Landabaso 2012; 2014), this ambition is neither an easy task in practice nor theoretically very well understood to start with. Overall, there has been limited differentiation between processes that are merely discursive and those that amount to actual co-creation and joint discovery. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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    Göttingen: Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
    Publication Date: 2017-02-01
    Description: We analyze human aging, understood as health deficit accumulation, for a panel of European individuals. For that purpose, we use four waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE dataset) and construct a health deficit index. Results from log-linear regressions suggest that, on average, elderly European men and women develop about 2.5 percent more health deficits from one birthday to the next. In non-linear regression (akin to the Gompertz-Makeham model), however, we find much greater rates of aging and large differences between men and women as well as between countries. Interestingly, these differences follow a particular regularity (akin to the compensation effect of mortality). They suggest an age at which average health deficits converge for men and women and across countries.
    Keywords: I10 ; I19 ; ddc:330 ; health ; aging ; health deficit index ; Europe ; gender differences ; compensation law ; human life span
    Language: English
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2017-01-31
    Description: This paper investigates the link between mortgage supply shocks at the banklevel and regional house price growth in the U.S. using micro-level data on mortgage markets from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act for the 1990-2014 period. Our results suggest that bank-specific mortgage supply shocks indeed affect house price growth at the regional level. The larger the idiosyncratic shocks to newly issued mortgages, the stronger is house price growth. We show that the positive link between idiosyncratic mortgage shocks and regional house price growth is very robust and economically meaningful, however not very persistent since it fades out after two years.
    Keywords: E44 ; G21 ; R20 ; ddc:330 ; house prices ; idiosyncratic shocks ; granularity ; credit supply
    Language: English
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    Rostock: Universität Rostock, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: The paper investigates the impacts of demographic change on the financial sustainability of a pay-as-you-go social security system in an economy with unemployment caused by trade unions. Using a simple two-period overlapping generations approach, it can be shown that the trade union behavior with respect to wage setting may have favorable effects on per capita contributions, if labor demand is sufficiently inelastic with respect to the wage rate. In contrast, if firm's labor demand reacts more sensitive to changes in the wage rate, the behavior of the trade union may amplify the imposed burden of demographic change on the social security system.
    Keywords: E24 ; H55 ; J11 ; J51 ; ddc:330 ; demographic change ; PAYG public pensions ; trade unions ; unemployment ; tax burden ; output elasticity of capital ; wage elasticity of labor demand
    Language: English
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    Mannheim: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Modern Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have been proliferating through the entire business sector over recent decades. This increasing digitalization is having a substantial impact on economic activity and is continuously changing the nature of production processes and our day-to-day working life. Since 2002, the ICT Survey carried out by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) has tracked the diffusion and use of ICT in different industries within the German economy. Further surveys were conducted at irregular intervals in 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2015. The survey was designed by ZEW's Research Department Information and Communication Technologies. The data was collected via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) by infas Institute for Applied Social Sciences. The central aim of the survey is twofold: Firstly, a representative picture of the use of ICT by German firms is obtained. Secondly, taking account of a large set of further firm characteristics it should allow an analysis of the consequences of employing ICT and ICT-related projects with respect to different measures of firm performance.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Pay What You Want (PWYW) and Name Your Own Price (NYOP) are customer driven pricing mechanisms that give customers (some) pricing power. Both have been used in service industries with high fixed costs to price discriminate without setting a reference price. Their participatory and innovative nature gives rise to promotional benefits that do not accrue to posted-price sellers. We explore the nature and effects of these benefits and compare PWYW and NYOP using controlled lab experiments. We show that PWYW is a very aggressive strategy that achieves almost full market penetration. It can be profitable if there are promotional benefits and if marginal costs are low. In contrast, NYOP can be used profitably also if marginal costs are high and if there are no such benefits. It reduces price competition and segments the market. In a second experiment, we generate promotional benefits endogenously. We show that PWYW monopolizes the follow-up market but fails to be profitable. NYOP is less successful in penetrating the market but yields much higher profits.
    Keywords: D03 ; D21 ; D22 ; D40 ; L11 ; M31 ; ddc:330 ; Customer-driven pricing mechanisms ; pay what you want ; name your own price ; competitive strategies ; marketing ; laboratory experiment
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Governments often provide their citizens with goods and services that are also supplied in markets: education, housing, nutritional assistance, etc. We analyze the political economy of the public provision of private goods when individuals care about their social image. We show that image concerns motivate richer individuals to vote for the public provision of goods they themselves buy in markets, the reason being that a higher provision level attracts more individuals to the public system, enhancing the social exclusivity of market purchases. In effect, majority voting may lead to a public provision that only a minority of citizens use. Users in the public system may enjoy better provision than users in the private system. We characterize the coalitions that can prevail in a political equilibrium.
    Keywords: H42 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; In-kind provision ; status preferences ; majority voting
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: In markets with quality unobservable to buyers, third-party certification is often the only instrument to increase transparency. While both sellers and buyers have a demand for certification, its role differs fundamentally: sellers use it for signaling, buyers use it for inspection. Seller induced certification leads to more transparency, because it is informative - even if unused. By contrast, buyer induced certification incentivizes certifiers to limit transparency, as this raises demand for inspection. Whenever transparency is socially beneficial, seller certification is preferable. It also yields certifiers larger profits, so that regulating the mode of certification is redundant.
    Keywords: D82 ; G24 ; L15 ; ddc:330 ; Market Transparency ; Certification ; Information and Product Quality ; Asymmetric Information
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: We document experimentally how biased self-assessments affect the outcome of matching markets. In the experiments, we exogenously manipulate the self-confidence of participants regarding their relative performance by employing hard and easy real-effort tasks. We give participants the option to accept early offers when information about their performance has not been revealed, or to wait for the assortative matching based on their actual relative performance. Early offers are accepted more often when the task is hard than when it is easy. We show that the treatment effect works through a shift in beliefs, i.e., underconfident agents are more likely to accept early offers than overconfident agents. The experiment identifies a behavioral determinant of unraveling, namely biased self-assessments, which can lead to penalties for underconfident individuals as well as efficiency losses.
    Keywords: C92 ; D47 ; D83 ; ddc:330 ; Market unraveling ; experiment ; self-confidence ; matching markets
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: In business and politics, gifts are often aimed at influencing the recipient at the expense of third parties. In an experimental study, which removes informational and incentive confounds, subjects strongly respond to small gifts even though they understand the gift giver's intention. Our findings question existing models of social preferences. They point to anthropological and sociological theories about gifts creating an obligation to reciprocate. We capture these effects in a simple extension of existing models. We show that common policy responses (disclosure, size limits) may be ineffective, consistent with our model. Financial incentives are effective but can backfire.
    Keywords: C91 ; D62 ; D73 ; I11 ; ddc:330 ; Gift exchange ; externalities ; lobbyism ; corruption ; reciprocity ; social preferences
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: We analyze how agents' present bias affects optimal contracting in an infinite-horizon employment setting. The principal maximizes profits by offering a menu of contracts to naive agents: a virtual contract - which agents plan to choose in the future - and a real contract which they end up choosing. This virtual contract motivates the agent and allows the principal to keep the agent below his outside option. Moreover, under limited liability, implemented effort can be inefficiently high. With a finite time horizon, the degree of exploitation of agents decreases over the life-cycle. While the baseline model abstracts from moral hazard, we show that the result persists also when allowing for non-contractible effort.
    Keywords: D03 ; D21 ; J31 ; M52 ; ddc:330 ; employment relations ; dynamic contracting ; present bias
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Several countries have recently introduced national capital standards exceeding the internationally coordinated Basel III rules, which is inconsistent with the 'race to the bottom' in capital standards found in the literature. We study regulatory competition when banks are heterogeneous and give loans to firms that produce output in an integrated market. In this setting capital requirements change the pool quality of banks in each country and inflict negative externalities on neighboring jurisdictions by shifting risks to foreign taxpayers and by reducing total credit supply and output. Non-cooperatively set capital standards are higher than coordinated ones and a 'race to the top' occurs when governments care equally about bank profits, taxpayers, and consumers.
    Keywords: G28 ; F36 ; H73 ; ddc:330 ; regulatory competition ; capital requirements ; bank heterogeneity
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Crowdfunding provides innovation in enabling entrepreneurs to contract with consumers before investment. Under aggregate demand uncertainty, this improves screening for valuable projects. Entrepreneurial moral hazard and private cost information threatens this benefit. Crowdfunding's after-markets enable consumers to actively implement deferred payments and thereby manage moral hazard. Popular crowdfunding platforms offer schemes that allow consumers to do so through conditional pledging behavior. Efficiency is sustainable only if expected returns exceed an agency cost associated with the entrepreneurial incentive problems. By reducing demand uncertainty, crowdfunding promotes welfare and complements traditional entrepreneurial financing, which focuses on controlling moral hazard.
    Keywords: D82 ; G32 ; L11 ; M31 ; ddc:330 ; Crowdfunding ; entrepreneurship ; moral hazard ; demand uncertainty
    Language: English
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    München: Collaborative Research Center Transregio 190 - Rationality and Competition
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: We study the 1956 consent decree against the Bell System to investigate whether patents held by a dominant firm are harmful for innovation and if so, whether compulsory licensing can provide an effective remedy. The consent decree settled an antitrust lawsuit that charged Bell with having foreclosed the market for telecommunications equipment. The terms of the decree allowed Bell to remain a vertically integrated monopolist in the telecommunications industry, but as a remedy, Bell had to license all its existing patents royalty-free. Thus, the path-breaking technologies developed by the Bell Laboratories became freely available to all US companies. We show that in the first five years compulsory licensing increased follow-on innovation building on Bell patents by 17%. This effect is driven mainly by young and small companies. Yet, innovation increased only outside the telecommunications equipment industry. The lack of a positive innovation effect in the telecommunications industry suggests that market foreclosure impedes innovation and that compulsory licensing without structural remedies is ineffective in ending it. The increase of follow-on innovation by small and young companies is in line with the hypothesis that patents held by a dominant firm act as a barrier to entry for start-ups. We show that the removal of this barrier increased long-run U.S. innovation, corroborating historical accounts
    Keywords: O30 ; O33 ; O34 ; K21 ; L40 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Mannheim: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Over the last decade, a large body of tax accounting literature on the association between book-tax conformity (BTC)/book-tax differences (BTD) and firms' opportunistic reporting behavior has emerged. Yet, existing empirical evidence on the questions whether increased book-tax conformity actually reduces Earnings Management (EM) and/or Tax Sheltering (TS) and whether book-tax differences are really indicative of such opportunistic reporting behavior is not yet clear. We therefore conduct a meta-analysis aimed at identifying the sources of heterogeneity in primary studies and at providing a consensus estimate with respect to the sign and the statistical significance level for the examined association. Our qualitative literature review reveals that major sources of heterogeneity in the study design include differences in the proxies for EM and TS and in the measures used to determine BTD and BTC. Our meta-regression results show that BTD are indeed indicative of opportunistic reporting behavior, and even more so of EM. These results are, however, weaker for studies that determine BTD only roughly as the difference between book and estimated taxable income instead of using more specific BTD proxies. Moreover, examining actual BTD computed from tax returns instead of only approximating these from financial statements strongly increases the effects. Hence, efforts taken to accurately determine BTD seem to be worth wile when it comes to the explanatory power for opportunistic reporting. Furthermore, our results suggest a negative association between book-tax conformity and EM/TS, which we interpret as an indicator for higher conformity indeed being effective in reducing aggressive reporting.
    Keywords: H20 ; H26 ; K34 ; M41 ; ddc:330 ; book-tax conformity ; book-tax differences ; tax sheltering ; earnings management ; meta-analysis
    Language: English
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    Mannheim: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Over the last decade Germany has boosted renewable energy in power production by means of massive subsidies. The flip side are very high electricity prices which raises concerns that the transition cost towards a renewable energy system will be mainly borne by poor households. In this paper, we combine computable general equilibrium and microsimulation analysis to investigate the cost-effectiveness and incidence of Germany's renewable energy promotion. We find that the regressive effects of renewable energy promotion could be ameliorated by alternative subsidy financing mechanisms which achieve the same level of electricity generation from renewable energy sources.
    Keywords: Q42 ; H23 ; C63 ; ddc:330 ; renewable energy policy ; feed-in tariffs ; CGE ; microsimulation
    Language: English
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    Mannheim: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: Monitoring by institutional investors can act as an important mechanism to promote firm innovation. By investigating Chinese listed firms' patenting between 2002 and 2011, we find that the presence of institutional investors enhances firm innovation. Consistent with the monitoring view, we further find that (1) the effect of institutional investors on firm patenting mainly comes from mutual funds; (2) the effect is more pronounced when market competition is more intense; (3) the effect exists among private- and minor state-owned enterprises, but not among major state-owned enterprises. The above findings are robust when innovation quality is examined.
    Keywords: G20 ; G32 ; O31 ; O32 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; Institutional investor ; Firm innovation ; Patenting ; Mutual funds ; China
    Language: English
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    Mannheim: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: This paper discusses the impact and the appropriateness of tax incentives for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the European Union. First, we provide a survey of implemented tax incentives specifically targeted at SMEs in the 28 EU Member States. Building hereon, we measure the impact of these regimes on the effective tax burdens of targeted companies. We find that SME tax incentives are a commonly used measure among European policy makers. The vast majority of regimes, however, only marginally reduce the tax liability of SMEs. If major reliefs are available, they mostly stem from special tax rates whereas tax credits and special allowance play a minor role. In the second main part of the analysis, we examine the arguments potentially justifying the usage of SME tax incentives. As a main result, small firms per se do not create more jobs and innovations nor do they face insurmountable financing constraints. The existence of market failures commonly associated with SMEs - and possibly warranting the use of SME tax incentives - can therefore not be confirmed. Instead, disproportionate tax compliance costs for small entities constitute the most compelling argument for a special tax treatment. These compliance costs can most appropriately be addressed by administrative reliefs. Special tax rates, tax credits and allowances, in contrast, are not only inefficient but also ineffective in this regard. Instead of improving the neutrality of the overall tax system, the latter are likely to add further distortions and unnecessary complexity. Altogether, the focus of policy-makers should thus shift from providing discriminatory incentives to the design of a generally neutral and simple tax system, which would benefit small as well as large enterprises.
    Keywords: H24 ; H25 ; ddc:330 ; SME ; Tax Policy ; European Union
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt: SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
    Publication Date: 2017-02-07
    Description: The Capital Markets Union-project of the European Commission aims for an increase of market-based debt financing of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), complementing bank lending. In this essay we argue that rather than focussing on pure non-bank lending, a reasonable mix of bank- and market-based financing should be considered. Banks are said to have a comparative advantage in critical lending functions such as credit screening, debtor monitoring and debt renegotiation. All forms of lending require a persistent skin-in-the-game of critical players in order to be effective. The regulator should insist on full disclosure of skin-in-the-game, thereby improving capital allocation and reducing systemic risks.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; SME ; funding ; capital markets ; lending instruments ; banks
    Language: English
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-09
    Description: The author reexamines the Schmalensee effect from a dynamic perspective. Schmalsensee's argument suggesting that high quality can be signaled by high prices is based on the assumption that higher quality necessarily incurs higher production cost. In this paper, the author argues that firms producing high-quality products have a stronger incentive to lower the marginal cost of production cost because they can then sell larger quantities than low-quality firms can. If this dynamic effect is large enough, then the Schmalensee effect degenerates and, thus, low prices signal high quality. This result is different from the Nelson effect relying on the assumption that only the high-quality product can generate repeat purchase, because the result is valid even if low-quality products can also be purchased repeatedly. The author characterizes a separating equilibrium in which a high-quality monopolist invests more to reduce cost and, as a result, charges a lower price. Separation is possible due to a difference in quantities sold in the second period across qualities.
    Keywords: D82 ; L15 ; ddc:330 ; experience good ; quality ; signal ; Schmalensee effect
    Language: English
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    Frankfurt: SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe
    Publication Date: 2017-02-09
    Description: This paper applies the theory of structured finance to the regulation of asset backed securities. We find the current regulation in Europe (Article 405 of the CRR) and the US (Section D of Dodd-Frank Act) to be severely flawed with respect to its key intention: the imposition of a strict loss retention requirement. While nominal retention is always 5%, the true level of loss retention varies across available retention options between zero loss reten- tion and full loss retention at the extreme ends. Based on a standard model of structured finance transactions, we propose a new risk retention metric RM measuring the level of an issuer's skin-in-the-game. The new metric could help to achieve a better implementation of CRR/CRD-IV and DFA, by making disclosure of the RM-number compulsory for all ABS transactions. There are also implications for the operation of rating agencies. On a general level, the RM metric will be instrumental in achieving simplicity and transparency in securitizations (STS).
    Keywords: G2 ; ddc:330 ; structured finance ; ABS ; STS (simple, transparent, and standardized securitizations) ; regulation ; retention ; capital ; Dodd-Frank Act
    Language: English
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-08
    Description: This paper focuses on the effect of uncertainty as reflected by financial market variables on subjective well-being. The analysis is based on Eurobarometer surveys, covering 20 countries over the period from 2000 to 2013. Individuals report lower levels of life satisfaction in times of higher uncertainty approximated by stock market volatility. This effect is heterogeneous across respondents: The probability of being unsatisfied is higher for respondents who are older, less educated, and live in one of the GIIPS countries of the euro area. Furthermore, higher uncertainty in combination with a financial crisis increases the probability of reporting low values of life satisfaction.
    Keywords: D60 ; G01 ; I31 ; ddc:330 ; subjective well-being ; uncertainty ; financial crises
    Language: English