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  • 1
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.
    Keywords: F22 ; O15 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; multiple destinations ; diversion, expectations
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: A growing number of OECD countries are leaning toward adopting quality-selective immigration policies. The underlying assumption behind such policies is that more skill-selection should raise immigrants' average quality (or education level). This view tends to neglect two important dynamic effects: the role of migration networks, which could reduce immigrants' quality, and the responsiveness of education decisions to the prospects of migration. Our model shows that migration networks and immigrants' quality can be positively associated under a set of sufficient conditions regarding the degree of selectivity of immigration policies, the initial pattern of migrants' self-selection on education, and the way time-equivalent migration costs by education level relate to networks. The results imply that the relationship between networks and immigrants' quality should vary with the degree of selectivity of immigration policies at destination. Empirical evidence presented as background motivation for this paper suggests that this is indeed the case.
    Keywords: F22 ; O15 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; migration ; self-selection ; brain drain ; immigration policy ; discrete choice models
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-17
    Description: Household composition is traditionally regarded as exogenous in economic analyses. The migration literature typically assumes that the migration of a household member is not associated with further variations in co-residence choices. We rely on a large Mexican panel survey to provide novel evidence on the correlation between the occurrence of an international migration episode and additional changes in household composition. Migrant households have a 34.5 percent higher probability of receiving a new member within one year after the migration episode. Attrition is significantly higher among migrant households, and we provide suggestive evidence that this is due to the dissolution of the household of origin of the migrant, with all its members left behind joining another household. The endogeneity of co-residence choices has implications for survey-based measurement of migration flows, for the analysis of selection into migration, and for the effects of migration on the individuals left behind.
    Keywords: F22 ; J12 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; household composition ; gender ; remittances
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Kiel und Hamburg: ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Publication Date: 2015-02-17
    Description: The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.
    Keywords: F22 ; O15 ; J61 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:conferenceObject
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  • 5
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: Ecuador experienced an unprecedented wave of international migration since the late 1990s, triggered by a severe economic and financial crisis. This paper gathers individual-level data from Ecuador and the two main destinations of Ecuadorian migrants: the US and Spain. First, we provide a careful description of the main characteristics of migration flows, both in terms of their scale and skill composition. Second, we estimate Mincer regressions for Ecuadorians in the three countries, and attempt to reconcile the features of migration flows with our predictions for earnings by destination. We find that earnings differences can account for the higher share of college graduates among migrants to the US, but fail to explain the larger scale of the flows to Spain. We argue that the puzzle is explained by taking into account that (i) the options to migrate legally to either destination were slim, and (ii) the cost of illegally migrating to Spain was lower than to the US.
    Keywords: O15 ; J61 ; D31 ; ddc:330 ; Migration ; selection ; sorting ; immigration policies ; Internationale Wanderung ; Auswanderung ; Qualifikation ; Ecuador ; Einwanderung ; Einwanderungsrecht ; USA ; Spanien
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-21
    Description: Many destination countries consider implementing points-based migration systems as a way to improve migrants' quality, but our understanding of the actual effects of selective policies is limited. We use data from the ACS 2001-2017 to analyze the overlap in the wage distribution of low- and high-educated recent migrants from different origins after controlling for other observable characteristics. When we randomly match a high- with a low-educated immigrant from the same country, more than one-quarter of time the low-educated immigrant has a higher hourly wage, notwithstanding a statistically significant difference in the mean wage of the two groups for most origins. For 98 out of 114 countries, this synthetic measure of the overlap in the two wage distributions stands above the corresponding figure for natives. We also find that at least 82 percent of the variance in log wages for migrants with a given number of years of schooling is due to differences within rather than across countries. This suggests that heavily relying on education to select immigrants might fail to markedly improve their quality.
    Keywords: F22 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; migration ; selection ; wages ; point-system ; United States
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2016-11-15
    Description: Social networks are known to influence migration decisions, but connections between individuals can hardly be observed. We rely on individual-level surveys conducted by Gallup in 147 countries that provide information on migration intentions and on the existence of distance-one connections for all respondents in each of the potential countries of intended destination. The origin-specific distribution of distance-one connections from Gallup closely mirrors the actual distribution of migrant stocks across countries, and bilateral migration intentions appear to be significantly correlated with actual flows. This unique data source allows estimating origin-specific conditional logit models that shed light on the value of having a friend in a given country on the attractiveness of that destination. The validity of the distributional assumptions that underpin the estimation is tested, and concerns about the threats to identification posed by unobservables are substantially mitigated.
    Keywords: F22 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; networks ; intentions
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2015-12-15
    Description: Destination countries can adopt selective immigration policies to improve migrants' quality. Screening potential migrants on the basis of observable characteristics also influences their self-selection on unobservables. We propose a model that analyzes the effects of selective immigration policies on migrants' quality, measured by their wages at destination. We show that the prevailing pattern of selection on unobservables influences the effect of an increase in selectivity, which can reduce migrants' quality when migrants are positively self-selected on unobservables. We also demonstrate that, in this case, the quality-maximizing share of educated migrants declines with the scale of migration.
    Keywords: F22 ; K37 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; migrants' quality ; self-selection ; selective policies
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2017-06-21
    Description: Demographic factors in migrant-sending countries can influence international migration flows. But when migrants move across borders, they can also influence the pace of demographic transition in their countries of origin. This is because migrants, who predominantly move on a temporary basis, encounter new fertility norms in their host countries and then bring them back home. These new fertility norms can be higher or lower than those in their country of origin. So the new fertility norms that result from migration flows can either accelerate or slow down a demographic transition in migrant-sending countries.
    Keywords: F22 ; K37 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; temporary migration ; return migration ; transfer of norms ; fertility
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 10
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2016-08-27
    Description: The effect of immigration on host and origin countries is mediated by the way migrants take their labor supply decisions. We propose a simple way of integrating the traditional random utility maximization model used to analyze location decisions with a classical labor demand function at destination. Our setup allows us to estimate a general upper bound on the elasticity of the migrant labor supply that we take to the data using the evolution of the numbers and wages of temporary overseas Filipino workers between 1992 and 2009 to different destinations. We find that the migrant labor supply elasticity can be very large. Temporary migrants are very reactive to economic conditions in their potential destinations.
    Keywords: F22 ; J31 ; J38 ; J61 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; labor supply elasticity ; temporary migration ; international migration ; multilateral resistance to migration
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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