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  • 1
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    Warsaw: Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research (TIGER)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-13
    Description: The paper examines the inflation targeting regime in the context of transition economies. Recent years have witnessed an increasing number of central banks in these countries moving towards the implementation of inflation targeting regimes. However, the success of such a regime depends largely on the degree to which certain general requirements are met. As experience in a number of transition economies has shown so far, targeting inflation is not an easy task. The ongoing restructuring process in these economies makes the inflation forecasting process more difficult and introduces an additional source of uncertainty in the system. By unequivocally choosing inflation as a nominal anchor the central banks could face potential dilemmas if, for example, exchange rate appreciated too much under the pressure of massive capital inflows. The paper presents the broad framework in which inflation targeting could operate efficiently and attempts to assess the extent to which such a regime, when applied to transition economies, could fit into this framework.
    Keywords: E52 ; E60 ; ddc:330 ; Inflation Targeting ; Eastern Europe ; Inflationssteuerung ; Systemtransformation ; Osteuropa
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Cardiff: Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
    Publication Date: 2017-07-27
    Description: Public spending devolution in practice is widely seen as more appropriate for addressing varied political aspirations within state boundaries than is tax devolution. A drawback is that devolved public spending may be subject to irresistible upward pressure, as illustrated by 'formula drift' of the United Kingdom devolved administrations. By crowding out the private sector such public spending can exacerbate the problem it was originally intended to alleviate. When taxpayers do not value increases in government output at least as highly as the private goods and services they must forgo to finance them, then the public sector is too large. This paper estimates a three sector Hecksher-Ohlin model of the economy with the greatest relative rise of the public spending ratio in the United Kingdom, Wales. Simulation of the model shows a net gain in emp loyment from a one percent cut in income tax matched by a corresponding reduction in government spending. This result is consistent with the current level of intergovernmental transfers being excessive.
    Keywords: R15 ; R58 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal Devolution ; Small Open Economy Modelling ; Crowding Out
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Cardiff: Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School
    Publication Date: 2014-09-08
    Description: Previous attempts at modelling current observed endogenous financial variables in a macroeconomic model have concentrated on only one observed endogenous variable – namely the short-term rate of interest. The solution method for dealing with more than one observed endogenous variable has thus far been computationally intractable. This paper applies a general search algorithm to a macroeconomic model with an observed interest rate and exchange rate to solve the signal extraction problem. The informational advantage of applying the signal extraction algorithm to all the current observed endogenous variables is examined in terms of the implication for policy from the misperceptions of specific macroeconomic shocks.
    Keywords: E37 ; ddc:330 ; Rational Expectations ; Partial Current Information ; Signal Extraction ; Macroeconomic modelling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Warsaw: Transformation, Integration and Globalization Economic Research (TIGER)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-13
    Description: A combination of cyclical and structural factors has lead to a situation which could threaten financial stability worldwide. As the current financial turmoil is unfolding it becomes clearer that the effects of the initial sub-prime crisis, which originated in the US, are spreading across other asset markets worldwide, increasing the likelihood of a global credit crunch and an economic downturn. In the light of these developments there is a need for the implementation of strategies for action. This paper focuses on structural causes of the current crisis and on policy issues such as enhancing transparency, resolving conflicts of interest, incentives structures in the financial industry and, not least, improving the existing regulatory and supervisory frameworks.
    Keywords: G18 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; Finanzmarkt ; Finanzkrise ; Finanzprodukt ; Unternehmenspublizität ; Aufsichtsbehörde ; Welt
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-06
    Description: The current financial and economic crisis has highlighted the inadequacy of existing institutional and policy arrangements at the EU level. Even before this crisis, the EU economic growth was low, by international standards, revealing deep structural problems across EU countries, especially in the Southern flank. Macroeconomic imbalances have been building up, exposing a stratified EU with divergences in productivity and competitiveness, with rigidity of labour markets, impeding efficient market responses to shocks. The Monetary Union does not have adequate institutional arrangements, which may help it manage a major crisis, such as that of a last-call borrower, depreciation and burden-sharing mechanisms of asymmetric shocks, etc; various sui generis formulas are now being tested. Fiscal reactions vary depending on the level of the debts and on the speed these accumulate; at the same time, these are linked to the size of the budgetary expenditure and fiscal revenues as percentage in the GDP. The sooner the growth picks up, the more acceptable is the downsizing of the certain expenditure and/or the rise of some taxes, so that the ratio between the public debt and the GDP stabilizes (reduces, when it is the case).
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English , Romanian
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 6
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: The emergence of the financial crisis back in 2007 exposed a series of deficiencies in the way the European mechanisms functioned, highlighting the incomplete policy design of the EMU (Economic and Monetary Union). Thus, it became evident that financial integration, financial stability and national responsibility for crisis prevention and management could not be all simultaneously fulfilled. Several factors have been responsible for the deepening of the financial crisis effects in the EU (European Union)/EZ (Euro Zone), namely the one-size fits all monetary policy and the absence of a fiscal institution counterpart to the ECB (European Central Bank), the EZ governance focused on rules-based prevention with limited scope for crisis management, lax banking supervisory standards, the absence of cross-border risk sharing mechanisms and bank nationalism, and the lack of political leadership. Given these flaws, the aims of the EBU (European Banking Union) would largely be twofold: * To strengthen the single market for financial services by ensuring a level playing field for banks. This would require a competitively neutral financial supervision across the EZ (and ideally across the EU). * To break the vicious circle between sovereigns and banks, thus reversing the process of financial fragmentation. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 7
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2013-06-07
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Geldpolitik ; Wechselkurspolitik ; EU-Erweiterung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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