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  • 1
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    Bucharest: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies
    Publication Date: 2017-09-30
    Description: Although there is no express requirement in the regulations of the National Bank of Romania, the design, the implementation and the use of rating systems in the management of risks related to exposures of non-banking financial institutions (NFIs) on the basis of good banking practice, is a valuable and indispensable in the efficient administration of risks, especially in the current crisis. In this framework, this study describes the synthetic process of reviewing the scoring system used by IFN. The mechanism for evaluation of scoring system performance combines the indicators of discrimination power with econometric results of studying the functional relationship between risk variables integrated in the model and the credit status (default/ reimbursement) based on logit model. The empirical analysis provides clear evidences that while the discriminatory power related to qualitative component (reputational scoring) respects the requirements of a good ex-ante identification of non reimbursement cases, the power of discrimination of quantitative scoring is only marginally superior to a random model. The added value of the study is completed by highlighting the importance of technical conditions of financing facility for anticipating events of non reimbursement. At the same time, the study tries to highlight the importance of scientific calibration of such a scoring system to perform effectively in the early detection of cases of default.
    Keywords: G23 ; G32 ; ddc:330 ; non-banking financial institutions ; credit risk ; scoring model ; univariate analysis ; multivariate analysis ; ROC curve ; discriminating power
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 2
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    Bucharest: Editura ASE
    Publication Date: 2018-06-22
    Description: The study aims to investigate the impact of credit growth on the Maastricht criteria targeting process in the new member states of the European Union. The methodological framework is based on a two-compenent transmission mechanism represented by the output gap and the nonperforming loans. The empirical analysis consists of a set of simplified econometric models, built by panel estimates using annual data from 2000 to 2011. Statistical results revealed the existence of a reaction of long term interest rates to the developments in sovereign risk premium, determined, in turn, by the impact of the mutual reinforcing between lending rate and output gap on the loan portfolio quality dynamics. Strengthening prudential conduct of monetary policy with a conservative macro-prudential policy is a critical need for increased resilience of nominal convergence to exogenous shocks, given that containing the volatility of economic activity depends in a decisive way, on succeding to maintain credit growth levels close to economic growth potential.
    Keywords: G01 ; G17 ; G21 ; G32 ; G33 ; ddc:330 ; Maastricht criteria ; Lending to private sector ; Output gap ; Nonperforming loans ; Primary budget balance
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: The severity of the global financial crisis has highlighted major structural limits not only at the level of credit institutions' risk management strategies, but also in the financial safety net. There were very few rules at the onset of the international financial crisis, to determine the actions to be taken by the authorities in case of distressed banks. Lender of last resort funding by central banks, deposit guarantee schemes and the prudential regulatory framework, as they were before the crisis, failed to stem the propagation of systemic shock that spread to the entire European banking system, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, in the mid-September 2008. The newly created situation showed that public authorities do not have adequate means to handle the situation of distressed banks on today's globalized markets. When a bank had been under stress, there was the risk of contaminating other financial institutions, including those beyond the borders of a country. During the systemic events, several major banks were in such a situation (Fortis, Lehman Brothers, Icelandic banks, Anglo Irish Bank, Dexia), which indicated that existing mechanisms were not effective, being necessary the design of additional elements, in order to allow a proper management of distressed financial institutions. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanztransaktionssteuer ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Öffentliche Finanzen
    Language: Romanian
    Type: doc-type:report
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