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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text analyzes the evolution of the cognitive abilities of Brazilian youth as measured by Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa). Our results are quite positive. In spite of an increase of youth eligible for the PISA universe and, therefore, a reduction in selectivity, Brazil's average score increased 33 points over the last decade. Brazil's position also improved when compared to that of other countries as its average score increased from 75% to 80% of the average of the original Pisa 2000 country group. In distributive terms, the greatest score increases were observed at the lower tail of the cognitive ability distribution. The upper tail of the mathematics distribution saw its average score increase by nearly 30 points, while at the lower tail the increase was close to 70 points.
    Keywords: I21 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text proposes a methodology for classifying the demographic bonus in education into relative and absolute components. According to this definition, a relative demographic bonus means that school age-population is increasing more slowly than total population, making more resources available, relative to population size, for education. An absolute bonus means that school age population is actually shrinking, making more resources per child available in absolute terms. The definition is operationalized through a decomposition of changes in net enrollment rates. This methodology is then applied to eleven Latin-American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama). The results indicate that the only country enjoying an absolute demographic bonus in education in Brazil, although Mexico and Panama are reaping large relative bonuses. Another group of countries is composed by Uruguay, Argentina, Cost Rica, and Ecuador, in which changes in net enrollment rates have been small and population stable, meaning there is nothing to explain or decompose. Finally, a group of principally small countries composed of Bolivia, Venezuela, Honduras, and Guatemala still enjoy only either a small demographic bonus or even no bonus at all. Surprisingly, it was in these countries that the greatest increases in net enrollment rates are observed, suggesting that demographics, while important, are not the only determinant of educational results.
    Keywords: J11 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Brasilia: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: [Introduction] Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programmes, including the Bolsa Família programme, have been extensively studied over recent years. The books, working papers and articles that have been written on the subject, if placed on top of each other, would pile up very high indeed. What excuse do I have for spending my time writing this one and asking you to spend yours reading it? My excuse is twofold. The first excuse is that, in spite of the aforementioned pile of studies, much about the programme is still not common knowledge. In the different forums in which I have been I have seen that many elementary facts about Bolsa Família are still relatively unknown to audiences beyond (some) Brazilian policymakers and government officials. How did the programme come about? What exactly was the Lula government’s role in its creation? What impact has it had on poverty, inequality, education, health and labour supply? Did it have any significant political effects? What are its contradictions and possibilities for the future? My objective is to give brief and, if possible, conclusive answers to all these questions in a single text. My second excuse is timing. Brazil is at the end of an era. After eight years leading the country away from poverty and towards more equality, President Lula has passed the reins of power to his handpicked successor, the tough Dilma Roussef. Like any end of an era, it is also a time of new beginnings, and President Dilma has already declared that one of her main objectives is not the mere reduction of extreme poverty but its complete eradication. To this end, Bolsa Família will certainly be an important item in the policy toolkit and will consequently face some kind of changes. To tell the story as quickly as possible, I have divided this text into three parts. The first part is purely descriptive, telling the story of Bolsa Família’s origin and going into the details of how it works. The second part tries to put the extensive literature on the programme’s impacts into as few pages as possible. Finally, I argue that, in spite of its success, Bolsa Família must change, and discuss possibilities for the future.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The purpose of this article is to explain how to use the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) and in particular to explain in detail how to set up the household panel. The PME household panel is an extremely useful analytical instrument that has been sadly underused due to several practical construction difficulties. The main objective of this text is to dispel these difficulties so as to open the household panel to researchers who previously did not know how to set it up. The first part of the text explains how to read the microdata and set up the PME household panel, and includes an explanation of its rotation scheme. Even this simple task becomes relatively complex due to how the PME is organized. The second part of the text deals with individuals and supplies some simple procedures for increasing the percentage of individuals successfully identified in the household panel. These procedures work because identifiable reporting error and identifiable changes in household composition reduce the percentage of individuals identified. Finally, we show how increasing the rate of individual identification improves econometric estimates using as an example labor market insertion.
    Keywords: C23 ; C81 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text examines the present monetary transfer setup for children aged 15 or less in Brazil. This setup is today composed of Bolsa Família's variable benefit, the Salário Família, and the child deduction in our Personal Income Tax. We analyze the value of each of the above benefits, as well as their coverage, targeting, and fiscal cost. We conclude that the present system is fragmented, is uncoordinated, excludes 1/3 of our children, and transfers higher values to wealthier children. We propose its substitution by a single Universal Child Benefit. The resources devoted to the present system could fund a R$ 14,62 benefit to all children under 16 in Brazil. The additional budgetary outlay for this benefit to reach R$ 25 - which would leave poor children no worse off than today - would be about R$ 6,4 billion, which amounts to about 0,2% of 2009 GDP.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The following study uses two approaches to judge whether inequality in Brazil is falling fast enough. The first is to compare the variation of the Gini coefficient in Brazil with what was observed in several countries that today belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) - France, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States - while they built their social welfare systems during the last century. The second approach is to calculate for how long Brazil must keep up the fall in the Gini coefficient to attain the same levels of inequality of three OECD countries that can be used as a reference: Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The data indicate that the Gini coefficient in Brazil is falling 0.7 point per year and that this is superior to the rhythm of all the OECD countries analyzed while they built their welfare systems but Spain, whose Gini fell 0.9 point per year during the 1950s. The time needed to attain various benchmarks in inequality are: six years to Mexico, twelve to the United States and 24 to Canadian inequality levels. The general conclusion is that the speed with which inequality is falling is adequate, but the challenge will be to keep inequality falling at the same rate for another two or three decades.
    Keywords: D31 ; N30 ; ddc:330 ; Einkommensverteilung ; Gini-Koeffizient ; Brasilien ; OECD-Staaten
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: Owner-occupied housing and public infrastructure services are a relevant part of the income distribution whose impacts have not yet been adequately studied, at least not from the distributive point of view. This paper suggests a way to find the market value for these services using hedonic prices. While far from new, this methodology is nevertheless useful in assigning values to these services. The paper uses Brazilian data from 1995, 2004, and 2014 to impute rental values for owner occupied housing and the associated infrastructure services. The results are that imputation of housing services considerably reduces inequality and that public infrastructure services have become more progressive as their expansion brings these services to increasingly poorer households.
    Keywords: D31 ; ddc:330 ; hedonic prices ; public infrastructure services ; imputed rent ; income distribution
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: This article estimates the market value of public education by comparing standardized test scores of students in public and private schools. The idea is to assign to the education of each public school student a market value equivalent to the tuition paid by private school students with similar test score results. The implementation requires an expenditure survey, or other database to provide information on tuitions, and standardized test scores available for both private and public schools. This article uses Brazilian test score data, which are particularly good. The main results are not surprising. Pre-school, primary, and secondary education are all highly progressive government transfers. Furthermore, since their market value is superior to public expenditures in each of these educational levels, they are also welfare enhancing. The flip side is that public higher education is both highly regressive and welfare reducing.
    Keywords: I24 ; ddc:330 ; public education ; value of education ; educational proficiency
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Brasilia: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Fortunately, both poverty and extreme poverty have shown a significant decrease in Brazil. According to data from the National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD), poverty dropped over 20 per cent between 2004 and 2013, to about 9 per cent of the Brazillian population. Extreme poverty fell from about 7 per cent to 4 per cent over the same period. Much of this decline was due to the expansion of the labour market and the significant increase in transfers to poor households, through both social security and the Bolsa Família programme (Rocha 2013). [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; poverty profile ; rural ; North ; Northeast ; Brazil
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Our objective is to analyze the gravity of panel attrition in the Brazilian Monthly Employment Survey (PME). There are three types of panel attrition: a) random, that does not produce any selection bias; b) function of observables, whose bias can be corrected through an appropriate re-weighing scheme; and c) function of unobservable variables, whose bias can be corrected through a bivariate probit for discrete variables or a Heckman correction for continuous ones. To test the gravity of panel attrition bias we estimated a transition to unemployment model both with and without attrition bias controls. Our results are that attrition tends to increase during school vacations and that attrition is strongly correlated to geographical mobility. Our conclusion is that while attrition bias does exist, its magnitude is small and its elimination does not substantially change analysis made using the models. In addition, in some cases, since it is not possible to control simultaneously for observable and non-observable attrition bias, in some cases the best procedure is not use on controls at all.
    Keywords: C33 ; C81 ; ddc:330 ; Arbeitsmarktstatistik ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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