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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The ICT Household Survey aims to collect data on information and communication technologies (ICT) access and use in Brazil. We use this research to elaborate two exercises. The first one applies logistic regression to determine the factors responsible for connecting a domicile to the Internet. The second one estimates a demand model for the Internet applying a multinomial model of discrete choice. The model contemplates four types of connection: DSL with fixed telephone line, TV cable or fiber optic and mobile via modem or 3G and 4G chip. In the case of logistic regression, we verified that socioeconomic variables such as schooling, income and social class are factors that influence whether the household is connected or not. We verified that the higher the level of schooling or income, the greater the effect on the probability of the household be connecting to the Internet. We observe that there is no defined pattern concern to the effect of a variable on the probability of choosing a type of connection. Thus, each variable responds differently depending on each type of connection. This study is the first attempt with disaggregated data of estimation of Internet demand for Brazil. Although it contains certain weaknesses due to the limitations of the database, it is still a valid exercise insofar as it suggests important indications for the construction of a more reliable database for the supporting studies of Internet demand in Brazil.
    Keywords: L51 ; L96 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; internet demand ; logistic regression ; type of connection ; multinomial model
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: The objective of this study is to predict the potential broadband market in Brazil. This task is done by combining information from two national databases: the Demographic Census of 2010 and the National Survey by Household Sample (Pnad) of 2015. The Pnad 2015 is used to estimate the probability of the household accessing internet by broadband technology using a logit regression. The broadband market is predicted using the estimated model with the same covariates found in the Demographic Census 2010. The prediction indicated a potential market of 45 million households, an additional of 6 million households in relation to the current situation. The new size of the broadband market is estimated if there is a 10% increase in the average penetration of broadband services in the main metropolitan regions. In this scenario, it is observed that the new market reaches 50,7 million households.
    Keywords: L51 ; L96 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; internet ; logit regression ; potential market ; prediction
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: This study aims to present a model for economic evaluation of the expansion of the broadband network for the Brazilian municipalities. This is done taking into account not only the economic return, but also the cost of expanding the network. Return is calculated from three criteria of prioritization: size of population, HDI, and potential market. Once one of these criteria is chosen, the effect on certain variables of interest, such as the effect on the product, access to the poorest population, etc., is estimated. To determine the potential demand of broadband, we estimated model combining two databases: PNAD 2015 and Census 2010. The effect of broadband on municipal GDP was obtained using the panel data model. To evaluate the cost to expand network we the applied the solution of the minimum generating tree from the graph theory. It was observed that the criterion based on the potential market is the alternative that generates greater economic return. Also the results obtained based on the size of the population are close to this one, whereas the prioritization by the municipal HDI is the criterion that presents the worst performance that penalizes the poor and the extremely poor population.
    Keywords: C21 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; backhaul ; graph theory ; minimum spanning tree ; logit regression ; panel data
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of broadband on the GDP taking into account regional differences. This is done by using the econometric model of panel data based on database of 5564 municipalities from 2007 to 2014. In order to incorporate the regional differences we use information derived from cluster analysis that isolates homogeneous groups of municipalities. Simultaneous causality between broadband and GDP is identified through instrumental variable method. Regional differentiated effects of broadband among municipalities were observed. The greatest impact of broadband occurs on those municipalities with the highest income per capita and high urban concentration followed by ones with a strong concentration in the service, commerce and construction sectors. The impact of broadband is also significant in the municipalities linked to the dynamic agricultural sector. In poorer municipalities the effect of broadband also occurs although with less intensity. Finally, we test the hypothesis that the effect of broadband on the output has an "inverted U" form that indicates that the effect rises to a certain level of access, but decreases after it is exceeded. The econometric results do not indicate that this hypothesis can be denied so that the impact is more intense in the intermediate levels of access of broadband.
    Keywords: C21 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; cluster analysis ; K-means ; panel data ; instrumental variable
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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