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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: This study aims to present a model for economic evaluation of the expansion of the broadband network for the Brazilian municipalities. This is done taking into account not only the economic return, but also the cost of expanding the network. Return is calculated from three criteria of prioritization: size of population, HDI, and potential market. Once one of these criteria is chosen, the effect on certain variables of interest, such as the effect on the product, access to the poorest population, etc., is estimated. To determine the potential demand of broadband, we estimated model combining two databases: PNAD 2015 and Census 2010. The effect of broadband on municipal GDP was obtained using the panel data model. To evaluate the cost to expand network we the applied the solution of the minimum generating tree from the graph theory. It was observed that the criterion based on the potential market is the alternative that generates greater economic return. Also the results obtained based on the size of the population are close to this one, whereas the prioritization by the municipal HDI is the criterion that presents the worst performance that penalizes the poor and the extremely poor population.
    Keywords: C21 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; backhaul ; graph theory ; minimum spanning tree ; logit regression ; panel data
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of broadband on the GDP taking into account regional differences. This is done by using the econometric model of panel data based on database of 5564 municipalities from 2007 to 2014. In order to incorporate the regional differences we use information derived from cluster analysis that isolates homogeneous groups of municipalities. Simultaneous causality between broadband and GDP is identified through instrumental variable method. Regional differentiated effects of broadband among municipalities were observed. The greatest impact of broadband occurs on those municipalities with the highest income per capita and high urban concentration followed by ones with a strong concentration in the service, commerce and construction sectors. The impact of broadband is also significant in the municipalities linked to the dynamic agricultural sector. In poorer municipalities the effect of broadband also occurs although with less intensity. Finally, we test the hypothesis that the effect of broadband on the output has an "inverted U" form that indicates that the effect rises to a certain level of access, but decreases after it is exceeded. The econometric results do not indicate that this hypothesis can be denied so that the impact is more intense in the intermediate levels of access of broadband.
    Keywords: C21 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; cluster analysis ; K-means ; panel data ; instrumental variable
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: Based on the hypothesis that the rulers of monetary and fiscal policy in Brazil may have been submitted to different regimes, the present study applies Leeper model (1991; 2005) in order to identify the chronology of policy regimes regarding their active and passive character. The policy rules are estimated by the Markov Switching (MS) model in which the regimes are endogenously identified. The results obtained allow us to place that fiscal dominance occurred in 2010 and between 2013 and 2014 while monetary dominance happened in much of 2003 and during the period from 2005 to 2007. The model still seeks to explain why the rate of Inflation during 2015 remained on the rise even though the monetary policy imposed by Central Bank was active.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; active monetary policy ; fiscal dominance ; reaction function ; regime change ; Markov-Switching model
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: The objective of this study is to predict the potential broadband market in Brazil. This task is done by combining information from two national databases: the Demographic Census of 2010 and the National Survey by Household Sample (Pnad) of 2015. The Pnad 2015 is used to estimate the probability of the household accessing internet by broadband technology using a logit regression. The broadband market is predicted using the estimated model with the same covariates found in the Demographic Census 2010. The prediction indicated a potential market of 45 million households, an additional of 6 million households in relation to the current situation. The new size of the broadband market is estimated if there is a 10% increase in the average penetration of broadband services in the main metropolitan regions. In this scenario, it is observed that the new market reaches 50,7 million households.
    Keywords: L51 ; L96 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; internet ; logit regression ; potential market ; prediction
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: Although there is agreement that the effect of broadband expansion on the economy, from an general overview, is positive; not an unanimous voice arguments that this impact be positive on all sectors. By applying a multivariate two way panel data model and estimated by bayesian methodology, this study aims to determine the effect of broadband expansion on the sectors of the economy. In order to take into account the geographical, social and economic differences among municipalities cluster analysis was employed in order to isolate groups of municipalities with approximate characteristics. The results illustrate that the impact of broadband is not positive for all sectors, being positive in the most dynamic and technology-intensive sectors such as the industrial and service sectors; and negative where this does not happen as in agricultural sector.
    Keywords: O57 ; O47 ; L69 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; multivariate model ; panel data ; clustering ; Gibbs sampler
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This study aims to revisit the issue of the sustainability of public indebtedness in Brazil, investigating the evolution of gross debt of public sector, the relationship between its liabilities and assets of the public sector, the future implications of gross debt to net debt and to make forecast of the gross debt of the general government for the next two years. We show that the examination of the concept of net debt (gross debt less public sector assets) can cover up important questions about the public indebtedness.We ask if one can have some idea about the future behavior of net debt based on the present performance of gross debt. In this context, we conducted a Granger causality test between the net (DLGG) and gross debt (DBGG) of the general government. Empirical results show that DBGG Granger cause DLGG.We apply the Dynamic Factorial Model (MFD) to make forecast on the gross debt of public sector and its major components. The results display a strong rise in foreign debt and repurchase agreements. In August 2016 they reach, respectively, 10% and 17% of GDP. The results also show the forecast of the net debt (DLSP). It is shown that DLSP reaches 44% of GDP in August 2016. The GDP also shows sharp drop in economic activity. From September 2015 to August 2016 this variable decreases around 3.5%. Finally, we check the effect the indebtedness on economic growth. The empirical results show that the rise of both the gross and the net debt as a proportion of GDP has a negative effect on the growth rate of the GDP.
    Keywords: H24 ; N46 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; gross and net indebtedness ; economic grow ; Granger causality test ; dynamic factorial model
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The main objective of this article is to verify the impact of both the incarceration rate and the number of police officers over the homicide rates. Overall, our results suggest that the increase in both the incarceration rate and the number of police officers are important do deter homicides. That is, the successful fight against crime can be achieved by incarceration and police officers independently of what happens with other socioeconomic variables.
    Keywords: K42 ; Z18 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; criminality ; homicide ; incarceration rate ; number of police officers
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This article verifies the different effects of legal repression over homicide rates across Brazilian states. We analyze the impacts of two different kinds of legal repression: incapacitation (rate of individuals serving time in jail in relation to 100,000 inhabitants) and deterrence (rate of police officers in relation to 100,000 inhabitants). We use both official homicides rate and the adjusted homicides rate estimated by Cerqueira (2013). Our econometric results suggest that different police strategies can have different impact over the homicide rate, which contradicts the study of Levitt (2004). Furthermore, we find evidence that the new Anti-Drug Law of 2006 had as an unintended consequence the decrease of the impact of incarceration rate over homicide rate.
    Keywords: K42 ; Z18 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; criminality ; homicide ; incarceration rate ; number of police officers
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Although it is a little known fact the Convention no 158 of International Labor Organization (ILO) which prohibits the dismissal of an employee without cause ruled in Brazil from 10 April to 20 November 1996 and thereby providing an excellent opportunity to evaluate the effect of regulation on job market. Using panel data from montly survey of employment we applied a Probit model to check the effects of the introduction of this rule on Brazilian labor market. Our results demonstrate that during the period of validity of the Convention no 158 both the probability of an individual getting a job as the probability of entering the formal labor market suffered negative effect.
    Keywords: J08 ; J88 ; C25 ; ddc:330 ; regulation ; Convention no 158 ; panel data ; probit model
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This paper set up some stylized facts related to migration in Brazil. Two important things should be kept in mind: a) the data came from PNAD 2006; and b) the variable migration is defined as an individual that was born in one state but lives in another one. Changes in the definition of the variable migration or in the dataset are able to change the qualitativeresults. We can summarize our results in the following: 1) young individuals with higher level of education are more prone to migrate; 2) gender and race are important factors related to migration; and 3) distance between regions is a very important variable to explain migration.
    Keywords: J1 ; J11 ; J19 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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