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  • 2005-2009  (12)
  • 1
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    Unknown
    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text argues that the criteria used to define Bolsa Família benefits and the criteria used to establish coverage targets are inconsistent. While individual concession criteria are that beneficiaries should be paid for two years if they do not suffer large upward income mobility, the coverage targets are estimated using a household surveys that interview a cross-section of individuals and thus do not follow them through time. If poor individuals suffer income volatility the two criteria are inconsistent and Bolsa Família will always have an eligible public that outnumbers its coverage targets. The monthly employment survey (PME) follows a four month panel of individuals and its thus used to estimate the income volatility of those whose profile is close to the Bolsa Familia profile. My conclusions are that income volatility is high and that four month longitudinal poverty is about 2/3 higher than one month crosssection poverty. The conclusion is that the methodology used to estimate Bolsa Família coverage targets should be changed.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text argues for higher Personal Income Tax levels. We show that, for all countries for which tax information is available, Brazil is the one in which Personal Income Tax collection as a percentage of the gross tax burden is the lowest. Personal Income Taxes account for about 6% of the Gross Tax Burden, slightly more than 2% of GDP, and slightly more than 4% of family income (according to the PNAD household survey). We show that this is due both to the fact that tax brackets are so high so as to exempt 85% of income earners from paying any income tax and the fact that our highest tax bracket is only 27.5%, which is lower than the maximum tax bracket of almost all countries for which tax information is available. Using Household and Expenditure Surveys, we estimate the Personal Income Tax Concentration Coefficients at between 89 and 92, which show a very progressive tax schedule. We also estimate that families who live on self employment and business income evade or avoid 80% of their personal income tax liabilities but that families who live off employment income evade or avoid only 20%. Finally, we analyze the impact of a series of theoretical changes in Personal Income Tax rules and conclude that they would approximately double Personal Income Tax collection. If the additional revenue were compensated by a reduction in a regressive tax, such as Contribuição para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social (Cofins), so as to hold the total Tax Burden constant, the result would be a 2,3 point fall in the Gini coefficient.
    Keywords: H23 ; H24 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text proposes a methodology for classifying the demographic bonus in education into relative and absolute components. According to this definition, a relative demographic bonus means that school age-population is increasing more slowly than total population, making more resources available, relative to population size, for education. An absolute bonus means that school age population is actually shrinking, making more resources per child available in absolute terms. The definition is operationalized through a decomposition of changes in net enrollment rates. This methodology is then applied to eleven Latin-American countries (Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, and Panama). The results indicate that the only country enjoying an absolute demographic bonus in education in Brazil, although Mexico and Panama are reaping large relative bonuses. Another group of countries is composed by Uruguay, Argentina, Cost Rica, and Ecuador, in which changes in net enrollment rates have been small and population stable, meaning there is nothing to explain or decompose. Finally, a group of principally small countries composed of Bolivia, Venezuela, Honduras, and Guatemala still enjoy only either a small demographic bonus or even no bonus at all. Surprisingly, it was in these countries that the greatest increases in net enrollment rates are observed, suggesting that demographics, while important, are not the only determinant of educational results.
    Keywords: J11 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The purpose of this article is to explain how to use the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) and in particular to explain in detail how to set up the household panel. The PME household panel is an extremely useful analytical instrument that has been sadly underused due to several practical construction difficulties. The main objective of this text is to dispel these difficulties so as to open the household panel to researchers who previously did not know how to set it up. The first part of the text explains how to read the microdata and set up the PME household panel, and includes an explanation of its rotation scheme. Even this simple task becomes relatively complex due to how the PME is organized. The second part of the text deals with individuals and supplies some simple procedures for increasing the percentage of individuals successfully identified in the household panel. These procedures work because identifiable reporting error and identifiable changes in household composition reduce the percentage of individuals identified. Finally, we show how increasing the rate of individual identification improves econometric estimates using as an example labor market insertion.
    Keywords: C23 ; C81 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This article measures the evolution of segregation by skill level among firms in the Brazilian formal labor market from 1996 to 2005. We define segregation as firms having a labor force composition by skill different from the labor market as a whole. We measure segregation using four different indicators for skill level: educational attainment, wages, job tenure, and age. Our main result is that, in contrasts to what has been observed in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, there is a reduction of educational segregation. This is a widespread phenomenon that can be observed in all five of Brazil`s regions.
    Keywords: J21 ; J24 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The effect of school inputs upon educational outcomes has been extensively studies in the literature but there are still no conclusions as to its impacts. This paper presents results that suggest a strong impact of inputs upon age-grade lag for Brazilian primary schools between 1998 and 2005. We use more than one estimation method, but the results we believe are those from a fixed effects model based upon a panel of schools. The data come from the annual School Census from 1998 to 2005 which provides information on a cohort of 132.603 schools; municipal data come from the 2000 Demographic Census. Our most important result is that school inputs have strong positive effects upon educational outcomes, particularly in the case of those schools whose inputs are especially low.
    Keywords: I21 ; ddc:330 ; Bildungsinvestition ; Allgemeinbildende Schule ; Bildungsabschluss ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The following study uses two approaches to judge whether inequality in Brazil is falling fast enough. The first is to compare the variation of the Gini coefficient in Brazil with what was observed in several countries that today belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) - France, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States - while they built their social welfare systems during the last century. The second approach is to calculate for how long Brazil must keep up the fall in the Gini coefficient to attain the same levels of inequality of three OECD countries that can be used as a reference: Canada, Mexico, and the United States. The data indicate that the Gini coefficient in Brazil is falling 0.7 point per year and that this is superior to the rhythm of all the OECD countries analyzed while they built their welfare systems but Spain, whose Gini fell 0.9 point per year during the 1950s. The time needed to attain various benchmarks in inequality are: six years to Mexico, twelve to the United States and 24 to Canadian inequality levels. The general conclusion is that the speed with which inequality is falling is adequate, but the challenge will be to keep inequality falling at the same rate for another two or three decades.
    Keywords: D31 ; N30 ; ddc:330 ; Einkommensverteilung ; Gini-Koeffizient ; Brasilien ; OECD-Staaten
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Our objective is to analyze the gravity of panel attrition in the Brazilian Monthly Employment Survey (PME). There are three types of panel attrition: a) random, that does not produce any selection bias; b) function of observables, whose bias can be corrected through an appropriate re-weighing scheme; and c) function of unobservable variables, whose bias can be corrected through a bivariate probit for discrete variables or a Heckman correction for continuous ones. To test the gravity of panel attrition bias we estimated a transition to unemployment model both with and without attrition bias controls. Our results are that attrition tends to increase during school vacations and that attrition is strongly correlated to geographical mobility. Our conclusion is that while attrition bias does exist, its magnitude is small and its elimination does not substantially change analysis made using the models. In addition, in some cases, since it is not possible to control simultaneously for observable and non-observable attrition bias, in some cases the best procedure is not use on controls at all.
    Keywords: C33 ; C81 ; ddc:330 ; Arbeitsmarktstatistik ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text discusses the Bolsa Família Program, its institutional design, implementation issues, its impacts and possibilities for future evolution. We discuss the institutional division of responsibilities, benefits, conditionalities and federative arrangements. With regards to implementation issues, we discuss the vitally important Single Registry of Beneficiaries, targeting, coverage and the discussion about exit strategies for beneficiary families. We also briefly review the literature on Bolsa Família`s impacts upon inequality, poverty, nutrition, labor supply, and political participation. We conclude that at present Bolsa Família is neither entirely a social protection program nor a program for the generation of opportunities. In the near future, a definition will be necessary because the two objectives are incompatible in a single program.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The objective of this text is to compare various approaches to defining poverty lines. The Cost of Basic Needs approach has been the most widely used method in Brazil and Latin America, there are various alternatives. In addition to the Cost of Basic Needs and Food Energy Intake methods, the text also discusses multidimensional poverty lines, not widely used in Brazil but quite popular in the rest of Latin America. Administrative poverty lines, such as half of a minimum wage or a dollar a day in purchasing power parity terms, are also discussed. Finally, the text also discusses relative and subjective poverty lines, widely used in the European OECD countries. The text's main conclusion is that although some approaches are better than others, this depends on the context. There is no perfect and criticism-proof method for defining who is and who is not poor.
    Keywords: I32 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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