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  • Other Sources  (45)
  • Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics  (45)
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  • Other Sources  (45)
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  • 1
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Description: There is considerable disagreement among analysts about the extent to which the spread of the Asian crisis was based on reasonable changes in expectations about fundamentals versus pure contagion effects resulting from imperfections in the behavior of currency and financial markets. In this paper we focus specifically on the behavior of the foreign exchange market for the five Asian countries. We find little support for the hypothesis that the Asian currency crisis was dominated by panic in the markets such that investors and speculators reacted much more strongly to bad than to good news. While the strongest reactions were to home news, there were also a number of significant cross effects. Almost all of these were of the same sign, suggesting that investors typically assumed that what was good for one country was good for all. Again, there was no systematic evidence of stronger reactions to bad than to good news. The markets may have overreacted in general, pushing currencies below the levels justified by the fundamentals, but, if so, this did not undercut the markets ability to respond to good as well as bad news, nor do these responses appear to have been systematically smaller to good than to bad news. The symptoms of the blind panic that has so often been alleged do not appear in the data.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Description: The Confederate States of America floated two small bond issues in Europe during the American Civil War; cotton bonds that traded primarily in England and junk bonds in Amsterdam. The Confederacy serviced the cotton bonds for the duration of the war and defaulted on the junk bond issue. Evidently the South believed that the cotton bonds provided a financial incentive for England to intervene or give military support. This policy of selective default suggests that reputation spillovers across markets may be smaller than indicated in theoretical models of debt repayment (Cole and Kehoe, 1994).
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Description: Various claims have been made about the causes of the Asian crisis and its spread. Here, we use data on the behavior of capital flows during the crisis to test the strong forms of four such hypotheses, including the dominant role of portfolio investors and hedge funds in initiating and spreading the crisis; moral hazard; and, finally, the role of Japanese banks in spreading the trouble to countries in which they were the largest source of funds. All are falsified as monocausal explanations. For example, portfolio investments that could not have been subject to substantial moral hazard continued to flow into Asia until very shortly before the crisis. Likewise, contrary to common expectations banks were a much larger source of capital outflows during the crisis than were portfolio investors. While falsified in their strongest forms, several of these hypotheses in less strong form should play a role in a more nuanced analysis. It is time to move past simple single-factor approaches in order to produce a more complete, synthetic explanation of this episode.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Keywords: O4 ; E6 ; C1 ; ddc:330 ; growth ; inflation ; non-linearity
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Claremont, CA: Claremont McKenna College, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-02-12
    Description: We examine the historical record of the financial crises that have often accompanied surges of globalization in the past. The issue of contagion, the spread of financial turbulence from the crisis center to its trading partners, is confronted with historical and statistical evidence on the causes and consequences of well-known crises. Special attention is given to the gold standard period of 1880-1913, which we find useful to divide into the initial period of deflation, 1880-1896, and the following period of mild inflation, 1897-1913. We find evidence of changes in the pattern of 'contagion' from core to periphery countries between the two periods, finding that apparent contagions can more readily be interpreted as responses to common shocks. Lessons for the present period can only be tentative, but the similarities in learning experiences are striking.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; contagion ; gold standard
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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