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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Social protection policy in Brazil is a historically built patchwork of programs that pay different values to people in the same situation, leaves many unprotected (in particular, 17 million children), is fraught with duplications and other inefficiencies. This note proposes an approach within which can join all transfers to individuals vulnerable to poverty and children within a single framework. The budgets of the Bolsa Família, Abono Salarial, Salário-Família programs and the child income tax deduction together add up to R$ 52 billion (about USD 15 billion). With these resources, it is possible to propose a new transfer program based on a Universal Child Benefit and targeted Extreme Poverty Grant whose impacts on poverty and inequality are twice those of the four programs above.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330 ; social protection ; universal child grant ; Bolsa Família ; Abono Salarial ; Salário-Família
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The goal of the study is to evaluate the targeting of the Bolsa Família Programme and its impacts on the reduction of poverty and inequality. To that end, we have used data from the 2001-2015 standard National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD) and from the 2016 and the 2017 longitudinal PNAD. The results support the findings of previous studies. Bolsa Família is by far the most progressive transfer ever enacted by the federal government. Its excellent targeting explains why, despite its small budget (0.5 per cent of GDP) and its limited representation in household income as reflected by PNAD (0.7 per cent), the programme has such a significant impact on poverty reduction: its transfers reduce poverty by 15 per cent and extreme poverty by 25 per cent. Dynamic decompositions of the Gini coefficient suggest that the programme was responsible for the 10 per cent of the reduction in inequality between 2001 and 2015. From 2001 to 2006 (the period during which the programme grew most significantly), Bolsa Família accounted for almost 17 per cent of the observed reduction in inequality. Findings suggest that the targeting of the Programme is already very good and that the main restraining factor of the Programme's impact on poverty is not targeting, but rather the low value of the transfers.
    Keywords: D31 ; D78 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; poverty ; inequality ; redistribution ; cash transfers
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text argues that the criteria used to define Bolsa Família benefits and the criteria used to establish coverage targets are inconsistent. While individual concession criteria are that beneficiaries should be paid for two years if they do not suffer large upward income mobility, the coverage targets are estimated using a household surveys that interview a cross-section of individuals and thus do not follow them through time. If poor individuals suffer income volatility the two criteria are inconsistent and Bolsa Família will always have an eligible public that outnumbers its coverage targets. The monthly employment survey (PME) follows a four month panel of individuals and its thus used to estimate the income volatility of those whose profile is close to the Bolsa Familia profile. My conclusions are that income volatility is high and that four month longitudinal poverty is about 2/3 higher than one month crosssection poverty. The conclusion is that the methodology used to estimate Bolsa Família coverage targets should be changed.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Arguments against means-tested cash transfers for the poor based upon labor supply appear both in the specialized literature and in the media. It is possible to make a microeconomic argument pointing to a reduction in labor supply on the part of beneficiaries of a targeted cash transfer. This would lead people giving up looking for a job, with long-term consequences for their human capital and social networks. This text reviews (we hope) all the studies made on this issue in Brazil since Cash Transfers have become important. The results are clear: with the exception of specific demographic groups such as women with children, either there are no labor disincentive effects at all or they are very small.
    Keywords: I38 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; conditional cash transfers ; labor supply ; labor incentives ; time allocation ; Transfereinkommen ; Arbeitsangebot ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text examines the present monetary transfer setup for children aged 15 or less in Brazil. This setup is today composed of Bolsa Família's variable benefit, the Salário Família, and the child deduction in our Personal Income Tax. We analyze the value of each of the above benefits, as well as their coverage, targeting, and fiscal cost. We conclude that the present system is fragmented, is uncoordinated, excludes 1/3 of our children, and transfers higher values to wealthier children. We propose its substitution by a single Universal Child Benefit. The resources devoted to the present system could fund a R$ 14,62 benefit to all children under 16 in Brazil. The additional budgetary outlay for this benefit to reach R$ 25 - which would leave poor children no worse off than today - would be about R$ 6,4 billion, which amounts to about 0,2% of 2009 GDP.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text attempts to estimate the impacts of Bolsa Família upon grade repetition using matched data from the Single Registry, the Attendance Project and the annual school censuses. Three approaches are used: i) comparison of results for poor children in the Single Registry with and without the benefit; ii) estimation of treatment effect; and iii) estimation of the impact of the percentage of beneficiary children in a given school upon the average repetition in the school. The results are far from impressive but do show a modest drop in the probability of grade repetition.
    Keywords: I24 ; I28 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; education and inequality ; government policy ; conditional cash transfers
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text discusses the Bolsa Família Program, its institutional design, implementation issues, its impacts and possibilities for future evolution. We discuss the institutional division of responsibilities, benefits, conditionalities and federative arrangements. With regards to implementation issues, we discuss the vitally important Single Registry of Beneficiaries, targeting, coverage and the discussion about exit strategies for beneficiary families. We also briefly review the literature on Bolsa Família`s impacts upon inequality, poverty, nutrition, labor supply, and political participation. We conclude that at present Bolsa Família is neither entirely a social protection program nor a program for the generation of opportunities. In the near future, a definition will be necessary because the two objectives are incompatible in a single program.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: In this text we address measurement, monitoring and cost issues relating to the eradication of extreme poverty in Brazil. We argue that, for the purpose of ending extreme poverty, income poverty is the relevant concept, and that an administrative extreme poverty line, decided upon politically, is the best criterion. For computational purposes, we use a R$ 67 extreme poverty line. The extreme poverty line should be updated using food inflation (INPC-alimentos) and progress should be assessed using the upcoming quarterly continuous household survey. We finally argue that families report incomes strategically, that even if correctly reported, all incomes are measured with error, and that those of poor people are also highly volatile. Given these limitations, the only way to ensure the end of extreme poverty is to give to extremely poor families a benefit close to the poverty line itself. We finally propose an incremental strategy that will cost less that 0,5% of GDP, using a R$ 67 line.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330 ; Armutsbekämpfung ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text describes in detail how to simulate the poverty impacts of changes in the entitlement rules and benefit values of the Bolsa Família Program. This simulation is especially challenging due to: i) the absence of a specific question on Bolsa Família income in the PNAD household survey and, more importantly; ii) the 2.4 million family disparity between administrative records and household survey data. The first problem we solve using a typical value identification methodology for the other income variable in which lies buried the program's income. The second problem we solve by using various matching methods to make the household survey data coherent with the administrative data. In addition to describing the simulation mechanics, we simulate various changes in the Bolsa Família program and find that: i) the most cost efficient way of achieving a modest poverty reduction is to eliminate the limits on the number of child benefits per family; and ii) linear increases in benefit values lead to linear reductions in poverty, which means that the present benefit values are still far from offering decreasing returns.
    Keywords: C63 ; I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: In 2006, the Bolsa Família Program completed its expansion, expecting to cover 11 million beneficiary families. The objective of this article is to evaluate whether this implied in deterioration in the program's efficient targeting and whether the target of 11 million families in fact covers the entirety of Bolsa Família's eligible target population. Our results are twofold. First, the increase in the coverage was followed by a slightly fall in the targeting. However, we do not find evidences that the coverage increase caused a worse targeting by itself. In addition, that coverage target is insufficient to cover the eligible population due to targeting errors and the size of the program. Taking into consideration the inevitable targeting errors, we estimate that the program should expand up to 15 millions of beneficiary families. Additionally, we show that a considerable part of the so-called inclusion error may be explained by the income volatility of poor families that makes the real target population of Bolsa Família (those families that are or soon will be below R$ 120 per capita) considerably larger that that calculated using a cross-section estimate of the income distribution in a given moment.
    Keywords: I38 ; D31 ; I31 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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