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  • 1
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    Bologna: Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DSE)
    Publication Date: 2018-02-02
    Description: Can the potential availability of unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? I apply a regression kink design (RKD) to address this question using linked employer-employee data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find 1% higher potential benefit level increases job duration by around 0.3%. Such result is driven by the fact that higher UI decreases the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI in Brazil. These estimates are robust to permutation tests and a number of falsification tests. I develop a simple model to assess the economic relevance of this finding. It shows that the positive effect on employment duration implies that the optimal benefit level is higher than otherwise. More importantly, the model delivers a simple welfare formula based on sufficient statistics which can be easily linked to the data. A simple calibration exercise shows that this elasticity impacts welfare with a similar magnitude to the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to benefit level.
    Keywords: I38 ; J65 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Bologna: Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche (DSE)
    Publication Date: 2018-02-02
    Description: This paper first exploits a "bonus" policy providing low-income workers with cash grants in Brazil to study the effect of liquidity provision on unemployment outcomes. Based on a RD Design, I find that granting unemployed workers with a bonus equal to half of their previous monthly earnings decreases the probability of exiting unemployment within 8 weeks by around 0.65%. Second, by exploiting the UI potential duration schedule, I find that granting workers with an extra month of unemployment benefits decreases the same outcome by 1.9%. Then, theoretical results from Landais (2014) are used to combine these estimates and disentangle liquidity and moral hazard effects of UI. Based on these, I estimate the liquidity-to-moral hazard ratio in Brazil to be as large as 98%, similarly to values previously found in the US. It suggests that, contrary to common belief, providing UI in developing countries with large informal labor markets may yield substantial welfare gains.
    Keywords: I38 ; J65 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Milano: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza (DISCE)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-19
    Description: Can unemployment insurance (UI) affect the behavior of employed workers and the duration of their employment spells? I apply a regression kink design to address this question using data from the Brazilian labor market. Exploiting the UI schedule, I find that a 1% higher potential benefit level increases job duration by around 0.35%. This result is driven by the fact that a higher potential benefit level reduces the probability of job quits, which are not covered by UI. I develop a simple model showing that the positive effect on employment duration implies that the optimal benefit is higher than otherwise and delivers a simple welfare formula based on sufficient statistics. A simple calibration exercise shows that this elasticity affects welfare with a similar magnitude as the well-known elasticity of unemployment duration to the benefit level.
    Keywords: I38 ; J65 ; ddc:330 ; Unemployment Insurance ; Employment Duration ; Regression Kink Design ; Sufficient Statistics Welfare Analysis
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    s.l.: PRME Regional Chapter Brazil, UNDP Office Brazil
    Publication Date: 2018-01-19
    Description: The aim of this paper is to create an indicator that compares the efficiency of countries in converting economic complexity into human development through the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and econometric validation. The DEA will not only enable comparisons of efficiency across countries, but will also enable the creation of a global indicator and social efficiency rankings.
    Description: O objetivo deste trabalho é criar um indicador que compare a eficiência dos países na conversão da complexidade econômica em desenvolvimento humano através do método de análise de envolvimento de dados (DEA) e validação econométrica. A DEA não só permitirá comparações de eficiência entre países, mas também permitirá a criação de um indicador global e rankings de eficiência social.
    Keywords: O3 ; O4 ; ddc:330 ; Economic Complexity ; Human Development ; Data Envelopment Analysis
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:conferenceObject
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  • 5
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    Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-06
    Description: Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-in inflation period (1995-2016) was characterized by improvements in all of these features, but it did not lead to significant improvements in economic growth. In addition, we document a strong positive correlation between inflation rates and seignior age revenues, although in inflation rates are relatively high for modest levels of seignior age revenues. Finally, we discuss the role of the weak institutional framework surrounding the scale and monetary authorities and the role of monetary passiveness and in inflation indexation in accounting for the unique features of inflation dynamics in Brazil.
    Keywords: E42 ; E63 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; Brazil's hyperinflation ; Stabilization plans ; Fiscal deficits ; Wirtschaftslage ; Schock ; Entwicklung ; Konjunktur ; Inflation ; Geldpolitik ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Finanzpolitik ; Brasilien
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: In a slow process marked by authoritarian moments, regressive effects, bureaucratic insulation, centralized arrangements and cronyism, since the 1930s Brazil has been building its Welfare State. In the wake of struggles and political clashes for ensuring rights and reviving democracy, the Constitution of 1988 brought about an important shift, as it established economic and social rights and outlined a new legal and institutional framework for social policies. Among other provisions, the 1988 Constitution also established specific guidelines for the social assistance field (i.e., a non-contributory universal policy intended to meet basic needs based on the offer of public services and payment of income). Early in the decade of 2000, concurrently with the construction of the new social assistance system, the Bolsa Família program (PBF) was created and launched. Compared to the track record of the Brazilian social policies, PBF adopted new management arrangements, instruments and methods and has accounted for a portion of the equity gains (reduced poverty and inequality) experienced in the 2000 decade.This paper analyzes the PBF from the point of view of its political and institutional arrangement - that is, the set of rules, organizations and processes that define the way stakeholders and interests are coordinated in the implementation of a specific public policy. In particular, it considers the program from the perspective of its dynamic relationship with the social assistance field, discussing the connection between the political and institutional arrangements of these two policies “at the end” (i.e., at a local level) and on the “top” (i.e., at a federal level). To that end, it draws on the categories of administrative capabilities (associated to the dimension of effectiveness) and political capabilities (associated to the dimension of legitimacy) and gets input from interviews with officials from the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger (MDS). [...]
    Keywords: H53 ; H55 ; H75 ; H77 ; I38 ; O10 ; ddc:330 ; Brazil ; Bolsa Família Program ; social assistance ; state capacities ; inter-sectorial coordination and policy orchestration
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Milano: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza (DISCE)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-19
    Description: This paper studies the role of council size on government corruption in Brazil. We leverage on the discontinuous relationship between the population size of municipalities and council size dictated by the law to implement a regression discontinuity design. We document a substantial positive causal effect of the number of city councilors on the incidence of corruption detected during federal audits. Results also show that hav- ing an extra councilor does not affect the size of the public budget, but in uences its composition. It increases expenditures related to public housing and recreation, which we interpret as items related to clientelis- tic policies. Finally, we find a negative relationship between council size and its productivity: namely, the numbers of legislative bills proposed by councilor and approved are both lower in municipalities with larger councils.
    Keywords: D72 ; D73 ; H72 ; ddc:330 ; Corruption ; Council Size ; Regression Discontinuity
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    London: Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice (cemmap)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-11
    Description: Lancaster (2002) proposes an estimator for the dynamic panel data model with homoskedastic errors and zero initial conditions. In this paper, we show this estimator is invariant to orthogonal transformations, but is inefficient because it ignores additional information available in the data. The zero initial condition is trivially satisfied by subtracting initial observations from the data. We show that differencing out the data further erodes efficiency compared to drawing inference conditional on the first observations. Finally, we compare the conditional method with standard random effects approaches for unobserved data. Standard approaches implicitly rely on normal approximations, which may not be reliable when unobserved data is very skewed with some mass at zero values. For example, panel data on firms naturally depend on the first period in which the firm enters on a new state. It seems unreasonable then to assume that the process determining unobserved data is known or stationary. We can instead make inference on structural parameters by conditioning on the initial observations.
    Keywords: C12 ; C30 ; ddc:330 ; Autoregressive ; Panel Data ; Invariance ; Efficiency
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    São Carlos: Universidade Federal de São Carlos
    Publication Date: 2020-02-04
    Description: Economic growth is not the unique factor to explain human development. Due to that many authors have prioritized studies to measure the Human Development Index. However, these indices do not analyze how Economic Complexity can increase Human Development. The aim of this paper is to determine the efficiency of a set of nations from Latin America and Asia, to measure a country’s performance in converting Economic Complexity into Human Development, between 2010 and 2014. The method used was Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), through the Variable Returns of Scale (VRS) Model and Window Analysis. Results showed in 2014, all Asian countries were efficient except China and the Philippines, and Cuba was the benchmark for inefficient countries. Window Analysis showed Japan, Republic of Korea and Singapore were efficient over time. This result confirms the initial hypothesis of this article: the more complex countries are more efficient in generating Human Development.
    Description: Article accepted for publication in the journal Gestão & Produção.
    Description: O crescimento econômico não é o único fator que explica o desenvolvimento humano. Neste aspecto, índices sobre a qualidade de vida têm sido recorrentes na literatura. Entretanto, estes índices não analisam como a complexidade econômica é convertida em desenvolvimento humano. O objetivo deste artigo é mensurar a eficiência dos países latino americanos e asiáticos em converter complexidade econômica em desenvolvimento humano, entre 2010 e 2014. O método utilizado foi o Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), por meio do modelo de Retornos Variáveis à Escala (BCC) e Análise de Janela. Os resultados demonstraram que, em 2014, todos os países asiáticos foram eficientes, exceto a China e Filipinas. Neste ano, Cuba foi o país que mais serviu de benchmark para os países ineficientes. A análise em janela demonstrou que apenas Japão, Coréia do Sul e Singapura se mantiveram eficientes ao longo do tempo. Este resultado confirma a hipótese inicial deste artigo: economias mais complexas são mais eficientes em gerar desenvolvimento humano.
    Keywords: O15 ; O32 ; ddc:330 ; Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) ; Window Analysis ; Economic Complexity ; Human Development
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 10
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    São Paulo: Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo
    Publication Date: 2020-02-04
    Description: This paper presents the analysis of the results of the National Program for Professional Qualification - PNQ in Piracicaba/Sao Paulo - Brazil. It analyzed the impact of PNQ on the income of workers. The Theory of Human Capital is presented as a suitable theoretical basis. We used econometric method "diffs-in-diffs", which compares the income of a group of skilled workers with others who did not attend the program. It proved to be rise in income and increased formalization of skilled workers. It was proved the viability of public policy professional qualifications in the municipality.
    Description: Article accepted for publication in the journal Pesquisa & Debate.
    Description: Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da análise do Programa Nacional de Qualificação Profissional – PNQ em Piracicaba/SP. Analisou-se o impacto do PNQ sobre a renda dos trabalhadores. A Teoria do Capital Humano se apresentou como embasamento teórico adequado, ressaltando a importância do treinamento na vida dos trabalhadores. Utilizou-se método econométrico “diffs-in-diffs”, que compara a renda de um grupo de trabalhadores qualificados com outro que não frequentou o programa. Comprovou-se elevação na renda e aumento da formalização dos trabalhadores qualificados. Destacou-se a importância da participação de outros agentes sociais. Ficou comprovada a viabilidade da política pública de qualificação profissional no município.
    Keywords: I26 ; I28 ; ddc:330 ; Professional qualification ; Income ; Difference in Differences Method ; Econometrics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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