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  • 1
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: This state-of-the-art report discusses the substantive and methodological background for the construction and application of a family-related foresight method. The substantive part includes a brief presentation of two preceding family-oriented foresight methods: one run by the OECD in 2012 (producing two scenarios) and the other by the FamilyPlatform (producing four scenarios), the forerunners of the FamiliesAndSocieties project. The methodological background focuses on microsimulation and agent-based models, two quantitative models that will serve as new tools for foresight. Their application is considered in a systematic framework along with other standard foresight tools such as workshops and focus groups.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; family foresight ; microsimulation ; agent-based models ; online questionnaire
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2018-03-09
    Description: Family dynamics are changing in Europe, but only few studies investigate how cohort completed fertility is affected by partnership behaviours and how this has changed over time. We use microsimulation techniques to investigate the effect of the increasing prevalence of union dissolution on completed fertility levels in Italy and Great Britain, two countries with very different systems of value. We find that the net effect of union instability is to decrease fertility (by about 0.5 children for Italian and 0.2 to 0.4 children for British cohorts) but the magnitude of the difference depends on the timing of union formation and separation. As expected, re-partnering produces more children in new partnerships if the separation occurs earlier. Nonetheless, it is only if separation takes place after the second birth and if all women re-partner that additional childbearing would almost compensate for births lost due to union disruption.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; Family forms ; fertility ; microsimulation ; union dissolution ; repartnering
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2019-11-29
    Description: Family patterns in Western countries have substantially changed across the 1940 to 1990 birth cohorts. Adults born more recently enter more often unmarried cohabitations and marry later, if at all. They have children later and fewer of them; births take place in a non-marital union more often and, due to the declining stability of couple relationships, in more than one partnership. These changes have led to an increasing diversity in family life courses. In this paper, we present a microsimulation model of family life trajectories, which models the changing family patterns taking into account the complex interrelationships between childbearing and partnership processes. The microsimulation model is parameterized to retrospective data for women born since 1940 in Italy, Great Britain and two Nordic countries (Norway and Sweden), representing three significantly different cultural and institutional contexts of partnering and childbearing in Europe. Validation of the simulated family life courses against their real-world equivalents shows that the simulations not only closely replicate observed childbearing and partnership processes, but also give good predictions when compared to more recent fertility indicators. We conclude that the presented microsimulation model is suitable for exploring changing family dynamics and outline potential research questions and further applications.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; Family life course ; fertility ; partnerships ; microsimulation ; Italy ; Great Britain ; Norway ; Sweden
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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