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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This article uses recently released data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua), Brazilian household survey to calculate changes in inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient from 2016 to 2017. A Shorrocks decomposition by factor components is also undertaken, as well as a limited analysis of the wage inequality and the labor market contribution to household inequality. The main results are: i) the Gini coefficient fell 0.18 point from 2016 to 2017, going from 54.1 to 53.8, which is a very small reduction in inequality; ii) this reduction is due to the interplay between labor and social protection incomes; and iii) the labor market by itself is playing against reductions in inequality, which shows the relevance of the (still limited and not very progressive) Brazilian social protection system.
    Keywords: D31 ; D33 ; ddc:330 ; inequality in Brazil ; Gini coefficient ; Shorrocks decomposition ; concentration coefficient
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Social protection policy in Brazil is a historically built patchwork of programs that pay different values to people in the same situation, leaves many unprotected (in particular, 17 million children), is fraught with duplications and other inefficiencies. This note proposes an approach within which can join all transfers to individuals vulnerable to poverty and children within a single framework. The budgets of the Bolsa Família, Abono Salarial, Salário-Família programs and the child income tax deduction together add up to R$ 52 billion (about USD 15 billion). With these resources, it is possible to propose a new transfer program based on a Universal Child Benefit and targeted Extreme Poverty Grant whose impacts on poverty and inequality are twice those of the four programs above.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330 ; social protection ; universal child grant ; Bolsa Família ; Abono Salarial ; Salário-Família
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In this paper, we estimate the distributive impacts of trade openness on within sector income distribution. The empirical approach is to estimate the econometric relation between effective rates of protection and various indicators of within sector inequality: the Gini and Theil indices of wage inequality in each economic sector, the ratio between wages of production and nonproduction workers, and the ratio between the wage bill and value added for each sector. The econometric specification is a fixed effects model in which each sector is compared to itself in various moments in time. The results show a significant but small effect of trade openness upon wage inequality as measured by Gini and Theil Coefficients and also small effects in the opposite direction between trade openness and the wage bill to value added ratio. This means that a substantive reduction in effective rates of protection will lead to small reductions in wage inequality and even smaller increases in the functional inequality in each sector.
    Keywords: F16 ; ddc:330 ; effective rates of protection ; wage inequality
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The goal of the study is to evaluate the targeting of the Bolsa Família Programme and its impacts on the reduction of poverty and inequality. To that end, we have used data from the 2001-2015 standard National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD) and from the 2016 and the 2017 longitudinal PNAD. The results support the findings of previous studies. Bolsa Família is by far the most progressive transfer ever enacted by the federal government. Its excellent targeting explains why, despite its small budget (0.5 per cent of GDP) and its limited representation in household income as reflected by PNAD (0.7 per cent), the programme has such a significant impact on poverty reduction: its transfers reduce poverty by 15 per cent and extreme poverty by 25 per cent. Dynamic decompositions of the Gini coefficient suggest that the programme was responsible for the 10 per cent of the reduction in inequality between 2001 and 2015. From 2001 to 2006 (the period during which the programme grew most significantly), Bolsa Família accounted for almost 17 per cent of the observed reduction in inequality. Findings suggest that the targeting of the Programme is already very good and that the main restraining factor of the Programme's impact on poverty is not targeting, but rather the low value of the transfers.
    Keywords: D31 ; D78 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; poverty ; inequality ; redistribution ; cash transfers
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
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    Brasilia: International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: [Introduction] The trade-off between targeting and coverage has always been something of a quandary for progressive cash transfers, particularly those that are not entitlements. Undue inclusion errors mean that families or individuals whose need is not so great are being paid at the expense of either taxpayers or other budgetary priorities. Undue exclusion errors mean that those who are in need, sometimes in desperate need, are not being helped by the state. This trade-off is somewhat less extreme for entitlements. If the law says that families whose income is less than a quarter of a minimum wage are entitled to a given cash allowance, then all those whose income falls under that line should receive the allowance. There is still a trade-off because measurement error still occurs, but the discussion centres only on the inclusion criteria. Most conditional cash transfers (CCTs), however, are not entitlements. When cash transfers of any kind are not entitlements, the targeting-coverage trade-off becomes more dramatic. In addition to inclusion criteria, coverage targets must be set and met. These coverage targets are usually set ex-ante and estimated before administrative records have given a clear idea of what is happening at the micro household level. Since these cash transfer programmes have suffered (or benefitted) from very high political visibility, it becomes difficult to change coverage targets once these are announced. Our objective in this paper is to illustrate these quandaries using Latin America’s largest CCT scheme, Brazil’s Bolsa Família programme (PBF). To do this, we first describe briefly how the programme came to be and its targeting mechanisms. Section 3 discusses the size of the programme according to different criteria (this is important in deciding whether it is too small or just right). The following section evaluates how good Bolsa Família is at reaching the poor and only the poor. Section 5 considers the concept of income volatility and why the poor are especially hard-hit by uncertainty about tomorrow’s income. Section 6 examines cross-sectional coverage. Section 7 discusses Bolsa Família’s marginal targeting and explains why this is the right concept to use in estimating how big it should be to cover all the poor.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text analyzes the evolution of the cognitive abilities of Brazilian youth as measured by Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa). Our results are quite positive. In spite of an increase of youth eligible for the PISA universe and, therefore, a reduction in selectivity, Brazil's average score increased 33 points over the last decade. Brazil's position also improved when compared to that of other countries as its average score increased from 75% to 80% of the average of the original Pisa 2000 country group. In distributive terms, the greatest score increases were observed at the lower tail of the cognitive ability distribution. The upper tail of the mathematics distribution saw its average score increase by nearly 30 points, while at the lower tail the increase was close to 70 points.
    Keywords: I21 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 7
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text argues that the criteria used to define Bolsa Família benefits and the criteria used to establish coverage targets are inconsistent. While individual concession criteria are that beneficiaries should be paid for two years if they do not suffer large upward income mobility, the coverage targets are estimated using a household surveys that interview a cross-section of individuals and thus do not follow them through time. If poor individuals suffer income volatility the two criteria are inconsistent and Bolsa Família will always have an eligible public that outnumbers its coverage targets. The monthly employment survey (PME) follows a four month panel of individuals and its thus used to estimate the income volatility of those whose profile is close to the Bolsa Familia profile. My conclusions are that income volatility is high and that four month longitudinal poverty is about 2/3 higher than one month crosssection poverty. The conclusion is that the methodology used to estimate Bolsa Família coverage targets should be changed.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text investigates, for 2004 and 2009, the characteristics and living conditions of four demographic categories defined by household per capita income values. These are the extreme poor (those whose per capita incomes were less than R$ 67 in 2009), the poor (between R$ 67 and R$ 134), the vulnerable to poverty (between R$ 134 and R$ 465) and the non-poor (per capita incomes greater than R$ 465). We investigate the size of each group, its labor market insertion, demographic characteristics, educational attainment, geographical distribution, as well as various characteristics of the house they live in. We also present a classification of types of family most likely to be found in extreme poverty. Our first conclusion is that, in spite of the strong reductions in the number of poor, the relative geographical, age, racial, and educational distribution of poverty has not changed much between 2004 and 2009. Our second conclusion is that the most important changes in poverty were a result of: i) inclusive growth through the labor market; ii) real increases in the minimum wage which have all but eradicated extreme poverty and even non-extreme poverty among families counting on at least one elderly person; iii) increases in coverage and benefits of targeted cash transfers that were for many families with at least some labor income the escape route from extreme poverty and even poverty.
    Keywords: I32 ; ddc:330 ; Armut ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: This text argues for higher Personal Income Tax levels. We show that, for all countries for which tax information is available, Brazil is the one in which Personal Income Tax collection as a percentage of the gross tax burden is the lowest. Personal Income Taxes account for about 6% of the Gross Tax Burden, slightly more than 2% of GDP, and slightly more than 4% of family income (according to the PNAD household survey). We show that this is due both to the fact that tax brackets are so high so as to exempt 85% of income earners from paying any income tax and the fact that our highest tax bracket is only 27.5%, which is lower than the maximum tax bracket of almost all countries for which tax information is available. Using Household and Expenditure Surveys, we estimate the Personal Income Tax Concentration Coefficients at between 89 and 92, which show a very progressive tax schedule. We also estimate that families who live on self employment and business income evade or avoid 80% of their personal income tax liabilities but that families who live off employment income evade or avoid only 20%. Finally, we analyze the impact of a series of theoretical changes in Personal Income Tax rules and conclude that they would approximately double Personal Income Tax collection. If the additional revenue were compensated by a reduction in a regressive tax, such as Contribuição para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social (Cofins), so as to hold the total Tax Burden constant, the result would be a 2,3 point fall in the Gini coefficient.
    Keywords: H23 ; H24 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 10
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: Arguments against means-tested cash transfers for the poor based upon labor supply appear both in the specialized literature and in the media. It is possible to make a microeconomic argument pointing to a reduction in labor supply on the part of beneficiaries of a targeted cash transfer. This would lead people giving up looking for a job, with long-term consequences for their human capital and social networks. This text reviews (we hope) all the studies made on this issue in Brazil since Cash Transfers have become important. The results are clear: with the exception of specific demographic groups such as women with children, either there are no labor disincentive effects at all or they are very small.
    Keywords: I38 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; conditional cash transfers ; labor supply ; labor incentives ; time allocation ; Transfereinkommen ; Arbeitsangebot ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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