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  • Bevölkerungsentwicklung
  • English  (109)
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  • 1
    Book
    Book
    Wildau
    Keywords: Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alter ; Hauspflege ; Altenpflege ; Hochschulschrift ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alter ; Hauspflege ; Altenpflege
    Abstract: Europäisches Management
    Additional Material: 1 CD-ROM
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: 101 Blätter , Illustrationen
    Language: English
    Dissertation note: Bachelorarbeit Technische Hochschule
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  • 2
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: F22 ; H53 ; J11 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; Einwanderung ; Kontrolle ; Internationale Migration ; Migrationsökonomie ; Bevölkerungsstruktur ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Sozialstaat ; Deutschland
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: D61 ; D64 ; F22 ; J10 ; J21 ; ddc:330 ; Einwanderung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Einwanderungsrecht ; Migrationspolitik ; Menschenrechte ; Ethnische Vielfalt ; Deutschland
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 4
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    Vienna: WWWforEurope
    Publication Date: 2016-01-12
    Description: Unless labour force participation in Europe increases enormously in the coming decades, the current demographic dynamics will pose gigantic challenges to the sustainability of public finance. Migration (and thus migration policy) can thus be seen as a central topic which will remain on top of the policy agenda. The aim of this policy brief is to summarize the knowledge gained by the research efforts on this issue in the framework of WWWforEurope and to provide policymakers with new methods and research results which will allow them to better quantify the effects of policy changes.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Einwanderung ; Migranten ; Arbeitsmarktintegration ; Migrationspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 5
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    Helsinki: The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-03
    Description: Optimal forecasts are, under a squared error loss, conditional expectations of the unknown future values of interest. When stochastic demographic models are used in macroeconomic analyses, it becomes important to be able to handle updated forecasts. That is, when population development turns out to differ from the expected one, the decision makers in the macroeconomic models may change their behavior. To allow for this, numerical methods have been developed that allow us to approximate how future forecasts might look like, for any given observed path. Some technical details of how this can be done in the R environment are given.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Demography ; Forecasting ; Overlapping generations ; Bevölkerungsprognose ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Prognoseverfahren ; Overlapping Generations
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 6
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: The study "Perspectives of the Migration Policy in Romania's Current Demographic Context" belongs to the thematic series of papers dedicated to migration initiated by the European Institute of Romania. If initially the issue of migrations analysed the relationship between the Romanian migrants and the European common space ("Free Movement of People" - 2002, "The Migration Phenomenon in Romania from the Perspective of Romania's Adherence to the European Union" - 2004 and "European Perspectives on Asylum and Migration" - 2008), the new suggested themes sought to expand the migrations' topic. In this respect, after analysing and assessing the effects of external migrations in the context of free movement within the communitary space, the European Institute of Romania (EIR) suggests a new scientific challenge, which is also of public interest, namely the analysis of migrations and the relative policies in the context of profound transformations of demographic structures in Romania. The topicality of this issue is confirmed by the increasing interest shown by numerous representatives of the scientific environment, as well as by experts within public institutions or interested politicians. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Migration ; Freizügigkeit ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Migrationspolitik ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 7
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-20
    Description: In recent decades, most industrialized countries experienced declining population growth rates caused by declining fertility and associated with rising life expectancy. We analyze the effect of continuing demographic change on medium- and long-run economic growth by setting forth an R&D-based growth model including an analytically tractable demographic structure. Our results show that, in response to demographic change, technological progress and economic growth accelerate in the medium run but slow down in the long run. Numerical investigation reveals that the time period during which technological progress and economic growth are faster than without demographic change can be very long. Since the theoretical predictions for the medium run are consistent with the negative association between population growth and economic growth found in the empirical literature, the present framework can reconcile R&D-based growth theory with the available empirical evidence.
    Keywords: J11 ; O30 ; O41 ; ddc:330 ; demographic change ; technological progress ; economic growth ; semiendogenous growth theory ; transitional dynamics ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Bevölkerungsökonomie ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Forschung ; Neue Wachstumstheorie ; Theorie
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 8
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    Lahore: Johar Education Society, Pakistan (JESPK)
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Pakistan launched one of the first population control programs in the late 1950s, yet has lagged far behind other countries in effective implementation over the past five decades. The primary purpose of this note is to make a clear case for formulating an integrated and effective population policy in Pakistan. Therefore, this paper presents literature based demographic analysis on a recent report published by Ministry of Population Welfare: Population stabilization: the case for Pakistan (Khan 2010). The discussion presented in this paper should be viewed as the healthy criticism of the issue under debate. In addition, these comments are influenced by previous population research on Pakistan on the basis of the lessons which should be learnt from the previous population planning inputs. The paper presents the chapter by chapter analysis of the report and concludes that there is a weak relationship between family planning input and population policy in Pakistan.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungspolitik ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Pakistan
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Essen: FOM Hochschule, Institut für Logistik- & Dienstleistungsmanagement (ild)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-23
    Description: This research paper deals with the specific question of demographic developments in India, which are in many parts reciprocal developments for example compared to Germany. In India the trend of bigger urban areas (urbanization) is a large challenge for transport systems. A contribution of a general development in India, particularly the pollution and economic development, are the objectives of the following paper. Furthermore this paper illustrates future urban transport systems under the specific logistics point of view. As method a SWOT analysis is applied.
    Description: Die vorliegende Forschungsarbeit beschäftigt sich mit der besonderen Frage der demographischen Entwicklung in Indien, welche in weiten Teilen reziprok zur Entwicklung beispielsweise in Deutschland verläuft. Insbesondere der Trend zu immer größeren Ballungszentren (Urbanisierung) wird Indien in Zukunft gerade für urbane Transportsysteme vor sehr große Herausforderungen stellen. Dafür skizziert der Beitrag die allgemeine Entwicklung in Indien, insbesondere die Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Anschließend werden Konzepte für zukünftige urbane Transportsysteme vorgestellt und eine SWOT-Analyse aus logistischer Sicht vorgestellt.
    Keywords: ddc:650 ; Stadtverkehr ; Urbanisierung ; Megastadt ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Indien
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: It is widely argued that declining fertility slows the pace of economic growth in industrialized countries through its negative effect on labor supply. There are, however, theoretical arguments suggesting that the effect of falling fertility on effective labor supply can be offset by associated behavioral changes. We formalize these arguments by setting forth a dynamic consumer optimization model that incorporates endogenous fertility as well as endogenous education and health investments. The model shows that a fertility decline induces higher education and health investments that are able to compensate for declining fertility under certain circumstances. We assess the theoretical implications by investigating panel data for 118 countries over the period 1980 to 2005 and show that behavioral changes partly mitigate the negative impact of declining fertility on effective labor supply.
    Keywords: I15 ; I25 ; J24 ; O47 ; ddc:330 ; demographic change ; effective labor supply ; human capital ; population health ; economic growth ; Fruchtbarkeit ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Arbeitsangebot ; Bildungsinvestition ; Gesundheitsvorsorge ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth.
    Keywords: O10 ; J1 ; ddc:330 ; demographic transition ; gender gap ; human capital ; fertility ; mortality ; Unified Growth Theory ; Demographischer Übergang ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Humankapital ; Geburtenrate ; Sterblichkeit ; Theorie ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: Religion and religiosity are important identity markers, and changes in a country's religious composition may affect its culture, value orientations and policies. In recent decades the Protestants in both the US and Canada have lost their absolute population majority. In the present study we investigate the future of the religious composition in both the US and Canada jointly until the 2060s taking into consideration changes due to demographic forces, the level and composition of migration, fertility differentials and intergenerational religious transmissions. The joint focus on both the US and Canada allows one to better understand the commonalities and differences between these two nations which are tightly knit in terms of geography, politics, economics and culture. The projections reveal that North America should not become Catholic by mid-century but close to, with an increasing importance of minorities in the religious landscape.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; Religion ; religious composition ; transmission of religion ; secularization ; multistate projections ; Katholizismus ; Sozialer Wandel ; Prognose ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; USA ; Kanada
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-07
    Description: Structural change has a far-reaching impact on inequality. It exposes the population to challenges and opportunities. Foreign trade and technological progress have been widely put forth as a structural driver of inequality. Broader structural change, such as demographic transition, can also impinge upon inequality. Structural change in developing Asia has been unprecedented in its scale and speed. The heterogeneity of the population implies that the adjustment capacity to these changes varies. The fundamental solution to mitigating the adjustment costs arising from structural change lies in empowering individuals to become more productive, adaptable, and versatile through access to education and employment. Structural change exerts a significant effect on inequality in both advanced and developing countries. The experiences of the advanced economies entail valuable lessons for developing Asia. Extensive structural change is both a cause and consequence of the exceptionally rapid economic growth, which enabled developing Asia to raise living standards and reduce poverty at a historically unprecedented rate. The region has already begun the difficult and complex task of addressing inequality arising from structural change. There is a growing recognition that more sustainable growth supported by broad-based political and social support requires a growth strategy, which provides equality of opportunity, especially in education and employment. The newly developing more inclusive growth philosophy envisions expanded social protection systems and social safety nets to protect the poor and the vulnerable.
    Keywords: O15 ; O53 ; P46 ; ddc:330 ; inequality ; structural change ; developing asia ; Soziale Ungleichheit ; Strukturwandel ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Asien
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: There is a lack of verifiable evidence on the period and magnitude of the demographic dividends in India, a gap policy makers must address when setting priorities for human resource and capital investment to harvest the economic benefits of the demographic transition currently under way. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the demographic dividends using National Transfer Accounts framework and by indicating their implications for equity. Our analysis projects that income per effective consumer could increase by 24.9% from 2005 to 2035 - 9.1% from the first demographic dividend and 15.8% from the second demographic dividend - and that the second dividend will be stable up to 2070. However, unless appropriate institutional reforms create an environment conducive to accumulating assets and raising productivity, India will find it difficult to meet the fiscal challenges posed by population aging.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Öffentliche Sozialleistungen ; Indien
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Providence, RI: Brown University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-11-16
    Description: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
    Description: NBER Working Paper No. 17377.
    Keywords: E17 ; J11 ; J13 ; J18 ; O11 ; ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Familienplanung ; Öffentliche Bildungsausgaben ; Ressourcenökonomik ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Prognose ; Theorie ; Nigeria
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Istanbul: Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: To evaluate the costs and benefits of various anti-smoking policy alternatives including taxation and four cessation programs, accounting for the demographic projections in 2011-2050 in Turkey. Demographic projections are combined with incidence and mortality rates of four major cigarette related diseases, price elasticity of cigarette demand and unit costs of nonprice measures to reduce demand in order to estimate the net present discounted values of policy alternatives. Among policy alternatives that yield the same amount of cigarette consumption, cessation programs yield lower costs to households and the society at large than taxation, while taxation is preferred by the public sector. Net benefit to the public sector as a function of the tax rate is a single-peaked Laffer curve. The public sector can obtain the highest net benefit if it raises the special consumption tax rate from its current level by nearly 9 percentage points. Although intervention programs emerge as the preferred anti-smoking alternatives, more research is needed on estimating the cost-effectiveness and social desirability of taxation and intervention programs in Turkey.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Rauchen ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Türkei
    Language: English
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2018-06-28
    Description: Following an earlier paper titled 'Population and Poverty: The Real Score' (UPSE Discussion Paper 0415, December 2004), the present paper was first issued in August 2008 as a contribution to the public debate on the population issue that never seemed to die in this country. The debate heated up about that time in reaction to a revival of moves to push for legislation on reproductive health and family planning (RH/FP). Those attempts at legislation, however, failed in the 13th Congress, and again in the 14th Congress. Since late last year, the debate has been heating up further on the heels of President Noy Aquino's pronouncements seeming to favor RH/FP, though he prefers the nomenclature 'responsible parenthood'. With some updating of the data, this paper remains as relevant as ever to the ongoing public debate. It is being re-issued as a Discussion Paper for wider circulation.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Armut ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Familienpolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Philippinen
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-21
    Description: In this paper, the relation between income inequality and population growth is analized from a Darwinian perspective. A Markov chain population growth model is presented and estimated using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). We estimate both population growth rates and steady-state income distribution for males and females. The results are compatible with the traditional age-based population growth models of demography, in so far as these are actually irreducible, positive-recurrent Markov chains. It is concluded that, from the perspective of individuals and family lines, income inequality may improve reproductive fitness of high-income individuals, and foster adaptive reproductive strategies for a given income level.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Steady-state income distribution ; intrinsic growth rates ; Markov chains ; population projection ; reproductive fitness ; Einkommensverteilung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Fertilität ; Deutschland
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2016-06-22
    Description: A recent literature has used variation just around deterministic legislative population thresholds to identify the causal effects of institutional changes. This paper reviews the use of regression discontinuity designs using such population thresholds. Our concern involves three arguments: (1) simultaneous exogenous (co-)treatment, (2) simultaneous endogenous choices and (3) manipulation and precise control over population measures. Revisiting the study by Egger and Koethenbuerger (2010), who analyse the relationship between council size and government spending, we present new evidence that these three concerns do matter for causal analysis. Our results suggest that empirical designs using population thresholds are only to be used with utmost care and confidence in the precise institutional setting.
    Keywords: C2 ; D7 ; H7 ; ddc:330 ; regression discontinuity design ; population thresholds ; local elections ; government spending ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Regression ; Kommunalwahl ; Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Bevölkerungsdichte
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: The reproductive value (see Fisher 1930) arises as part of the shadow price of the population in a large class of age-structured optimal control models.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Reproductive value ; distributed optimal control theory ; McKendrick equation ; shadow price ; indirect effect ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Opportunitätskosten ; Kontrolltheorie ; Gesundheitsökonomik ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: This paper contributes to the already vast literature on demography-induced international capital flows by examining the role of labor market imperfections and institutions. We setup a two-country overlapping generations model with search unemployment, which we calibrate on EU15 and US data. Labor market imperfections are found to significantly increase the volume of capital flows, because of stronger employment adjustments in comparison with a competitive economy. We next exploit the model to investigate how demographic asymmetries may have contributed to unemployment and welfare changes in the recent past (1950-2010). We show that a policy reform in one country also has an impact on labor markets in other countries when capital is mobile.
    Keywords: J11 ; F21 ; D91 ; C68 ; ddc:330 ; demographics ; capital flows ; overlapping generations ; general equilibrium ; unemployment ; Kapitalmobilität ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Arbeitsmarktflexibilität ; Unvollkommener Markt ; Overlapping Generations ; Vergleich ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: There is limited empirical evidence on whether unrestricted cash social assistance to poor pregnant women improves children's birth outcomes. Using program administrative micro-data matched to longitudinal vital statistics on the universe of births in Uruguay, we estimate that participation in a generous cash transfer program led to a sizeable 15% reduction in the incidence of low birthweight. Improvements in mother nutrition and a fall in labor supply, out-of-wedlock births and mother's smoking all appear to contribute to the effect. We conclude that, by improving child health, unrestricted unconditional cash transfers may help break the cycle of intergenerational poverty.
    Keywords: J88 ; I38 ; J13 ; ddc:330 ; welfare transfers ; birth outcomes ; Bevölkerungspolitik ; Frauen ; Schwangerschaft ; Sozialtransfer ; Kinder ; Gesundheit ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Uganda
    Language: English
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  • 23
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    Kingston (Ontario): Queen's University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-12-05
    Description: We characterize the dynamics of relative house prices, construction rates and population growth across US cities. In response to fluctuations in relative incomes, we find that population growth rates adjust more rapidly than construction rates in the short run and that price appreciation exhibits considerable serial correlation in the shortrun and mean reversion in the long-run. We develop a competitive search model of the housing market in which construction, the entry of buyers, house prices and rents are endogenously determined in equilibrium. Our theory generates dynamics that are qualitatively consistent with our empirical observations. In particular, in a version of the economy calibrated to match long-run features of the housing market in U.S. cities, variation in the time it takes to sell a house (i.e. the house's liquidity) induces house values and transaction prices to exhibit momentum, or serially correlated growth.
    Keywords: E30 ; R31 ; R10 ; ddc:330 ; house prices ; liquidity ; search ; construction ; dynamic panel ; Immobilienmarkt ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Haushaltseinkommen ; Wohnungsbauinvestition ; Immobilienpreis ; Ballungsraum ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: The transition in the People's Republic of China from a centrally planned economy to a market-based economy is widely acclaimed for leading to unprecedented economic growth, but there is a growing awareness of the social strains accompanying that growth such as the lagging development of the social protection system as the population ages. Using estimates from the National Transfer Accounts database, we describe changes in life cycle public transfers; interhousehold transfers; and intrahousehold transfers for education, health care, and other support; and discuss the main challenges that demographic change poses for the pension and health care systems. Demographic change and its interaction with family behavior and social policies will strongly shape both future economic growth - through savings and investment decisions, labor supply and productivity - and the sustainability of social support systems.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Generationengerechtigkeit ; Soziale Sicherheit ; Sozialpolitik ; China
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: We explore how demographic changes in the Asia and Pacific region are likely to influence economic growth and other features of the regional economy. While many low-income countries in the region will continue to experience a demographic dividend, over time population aging could drag on economic growth, especially in East Asia. A second potential problem from population aging is the strain on public transfer systems the effects of which, although smaller than those in Europe, Japan, or Latin America, will still be large. Countering these problems, however, population aging will lead to substantial capital deepening, an effect of the second demographic dividend. Given current patterns of old-age consumption, production, and transfers, the total demand for pension assets will increase very substantially over the coming decades. Under these circumstances, aging should not depress savings rates. Capital deepening and high standards of living are attainable despite significant population aging.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Bevölkerungsstruktur ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Asiatisch-pazifischer Raum
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    Rio de Janeiro: Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Departamento de Economia
    Publication Date: 2018-03-22
    Description: Mimicking the US in 1980 and 1990s, Brazil is a remarkable case of a major shift in homicides. After increasing steadily throughout the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, homicides reached a peak in 2003, and then fell. I show a strong time-series co-movement between homicide rates and the percentage of the population in 15-24 age bracket. Using a panel of states, I find a very high elasticity of homicide with respect to changes in the 15-24 year-old population (2.4), after controlling for income, income inequality, and state and year fixed effects. I then focus on the case of São Paulo, the largest state in the country, and whose shift in homicides has been particularly acute. City-level panel elasticities are similar to the state-level estimates. Furthermore, the demographic shift in São Paulo was more pronounced than the national one, explaining the particularly large shift in homicides in São Paulo. The large cohort born from the mid 1970 through the early 1980 is the result of a sharp reduction in infant mortality only belatedly followed by acceleration in the reduction of fertility. In line with the Easterlin Hypothesis (Easterlin [1980]), this large cohort faced tough economic conditions. Educational attainment ceased to improve for this cohort, and unemployment rates upon entering the job market were exceptionally high. Thus, the large homicide shift in Brazil is produced by a particularly large and socially fragile cohort.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Age Structure ; Demographic Change ; Homicides ; Altersstruktur ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Suizid ; Brasilien
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Wellington: New Zealand Government, The Treasury
    Publication Date: 2019-11-02
    Description: This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand's Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends scenario allows historic and current spending and revenue settings to interact with changing demography. The sustainable debt scenario applies a fiscal constraint on non-benefit spending so that Crown net debt follows the Government's medium-term fiscal targets. The modelling innovations introduced this time do not alter the basic structure and principles of the Long-term Fiscal Model, but instead provide insights into government spending: public sector productivity growth and the growth of the basket of services each person receives. These innovations enable us to illustrate the effects of tradeoffs between broad spending categories in a constrained fiscal environment. In the 2009 Statement, these policy changes are combined into three possible scenarios for obtaining a sustainable fiscal position. The paper also illustrates the sensitivity of the fiscal position to small changes in the demographic, macroeconomic and fiscal modelling assumptions.
    Keywords: E62 ; H50 ; H68 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Population ; projections ; social expenditure ; fiscal costs ; New Zealand ; Finanzpolitik ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Öffentliche Sozialausgaben ; Neuseeland
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    Hannover: Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät
    Publication Date: 2019-07-24
    Description: Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate microfounded fertility and schooling into an otherwise standard R&D-based growth model. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all fully developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory.
    Keywords: J13 ; J24 ; O10 ; O30 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; Endogenous growth ; R&D ; declining population ; fertility ; schooling ; human capital ; post-modern society ; post-transitional fertility ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Geburtenrate ; Humankapital ; Sozialer Wandel ; Neue Wachstumstheorie ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-01-14
    Description: We analyse the adjustment of public education spending in response to rapidly decreasing student cohorts in East Germany where birth rates collapsed after German reunification. Previous results from the literature based on data from more stable demographic periods suggest that public resources are incompletely adjusted, and that large reductions in the student population would thus translate into major increases in spending per student. Our empirical analysis suggests, however, that resource adjustments in East Germany have been considerable, especially in the years when student cohorts actually decreased. Adjustments were less tight when student numbers began to stagnate. Although our results are restricted to public education, they may be interpreted as early evidence on fiscal adjustments during strong demographic change, which will play a growing role in the years to come.
    Keywords: I22 ; J18 ; H72 ; ddc:330 ; Subnational government spending ; demographic change ; public education ; Öffentliche Bildungsausgaben ; Anpassung ; Fruchtbarkeit ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Neue Bundesländer ; Finanzpolitik ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Deutschland
    Language: English
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  • 30
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    Providence, RI: Brown University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth.
    Keywords: O10 ; J1 ; ddc:330 ; Demographic transition ; Gender Gap ; Human capital ; Fertility ; Mortality ; Unified Growth Theoy ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Humankapital ; Geburtenrate ; Sterblichkeit ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 31
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: The purpose of this article is to identify the role of population size, population growth and population ageing in models of endogenous economic growth. While in exogenous growth models demographic variables are linked to economic prosperity mainly via the population size, the structure of the workforce, and the capital intensity of workers, endogenous growth models and their successors also allow for interrelationships between demography and technological change. However, most of the existing literature considers only the interrelationships based on population size and its growth rate and does not explicitly account for population ageing. The aim of this paper is (a) to review the role of population size and population growth in the most commonly used economic growth models (with a focus on endogenous economic growth models), (b) discuss models that also allow for population ageing, and (c) sketch out the policy implications of the most commonly used endogenous growth models and compare them to each other.
    Keywords: J10 ; O16 ; O41 ; ddc:330 ; Demographic change ; endogenous R&D ; economic growth ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Neue Wachstumstheorie ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 32
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate micro-founded fertility and schooling into an otherwise standard R&D-based growth model. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all fully developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory.
    Keywords: J13 ; J24 ; O10 ; O30 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; Endogenous growth ; R&D ; declining population ; fertility ; schooling ; human capital ; postmodern society ; post-transitional fertility ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Fertilität ; Humankapital ; Sozialer Wandel ; Neue Wachstumstheorie ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 33
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    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper develops a small-scale DSGE model which embeds a demographic structure within a monetary policy framework. We extend the tractable, though non-monetary overlapping-generations model of Gertler (1999) and present a small synthesis model which combines the set-up of Gertler with a New-Keynesian structure, implying that the short-run dynamics related to monetary policy are similar to the paradigm summarized in Woodford (2003). In sum, the model offers a New-Keynesian platform which can be used to investigate in a closed economy set-up the response of macroeconomic variables to demographic shocks, similar to technology, government spending or monetary policy shocks. Empirically, we use a calibrated version of the model to discuss a number of macroeconomic scenarios for the euro area with a horizon of around 20 years. The main finding is that demographic changes, while contributing slowly over time to a decline in the equilibrium interest rate, are not visible enough within the time horizon relevant for monetary policy-making to require monetary policy reactions.
    Keywords: D58 ; E21 ; E50 ; E63 ; ddc:330 ; Demographic change ; DSGE modelling ; monetary policy ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Geldpolitik ; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht ; Overlapping Generations ; Szenariotechnik ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    Ottawa: Bank of Canada
    Publication Date: 2011-12-16
    Description: Using an error-correction model (ECM) framework, the authors attempt to quantify the degree of disequilibrium in Canadian housing stock over the period 1961-2008 for the national aggregate and over 1981-2008 for the provinces. They find that, based on quarterly data, the level of housing stock in the long run is associated with population, real per capita disposable income, and real house prices. Population growth (net migration, particularly for the western provinces) is also an important determinant of the short-run dynamics of housing stock, after controlling for serial correlation in the dependent variable. Real mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and a number of other variables identified in the literature are found to play a small role in the short run. The authors' model suggests that the Canadian housing stock was 2 per cent above its equilibrium level at the end of 2008. There was likely overbuilding, to varying degrees, in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.
    Keywords: E21 ; J00 ; ddc:330 ; Domestic demand and components ; Immobilienmarkt ; Wohnungsversorgung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Internationale Wanderung ; Kanada
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Essen: Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-06
    Description: Despite similar levels of per capita income, education, and technology the development of labour shares in OECD countries has displayed different patterns since 1960. The paper examines the role of demography in this regard. Employing an overlapping generations model we first examine the mechanisms through which demographic change can affect labour shares. Model simulations show that demographic effects on the labour share are larger in open than in closed economies. Empirical estimates, conducted using panel cointegration techniques for a panel of 18 OECD countries, provide strong support for demographic effects on the labour share. In line with the simulation results, we also find evidence that openness increases this impact.
    Keywords: E25 ; J10 ; D91 ; C23 ; ddc:330 ; Labour share ; demographic change ; panel cointegration ; Lohnquote ; Bevölkerungsökonomie ; Overlapping Generations ; Offene Volkswirtschaft ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; OECD-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Luxembourg: Luxembourg Income Study (LIS)
    Publication Date: 2014-04-04
    Description: We use data from the Luxembourg Income Study in order to quantify the economy-wide monetary gains achieved by household-size economies due to within-household sharing of goods by individuals living in multimember households. In most countries out of the twenty countries we examine, we observe a decline in monetary gains achieved by household-size economies over time. This decline is the result of a demographic trend towards smaller-sized household units, rather than a change in the shares of aggregate disposable income earned by household types of different size.
    Keywords: D1 ; D13 ; D31 ; I31 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; equivalence scale ; welfare ; demographic change ; Luxembourg Income tudy ; household size economies ; income distribution ; family economics ; Einkommensverteilung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Privater Haushalt ; Familienökonomik ; OECD-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 37
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    Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-07
    Description: The current global economic crisis has led to greater prominence for the issue of strengthening social protection systems in Asia. This paper analyzes the key factors determining and the possible avenues for strengthening social protection systems in Asia. The choice of an appropriate combination of avenues depends on the initial starting point, public policy objectives, institutional, fiscal, and other capabilities. Following introductory remarks, Section 2 discusses demographic and labor market trends in Asia. It stresses that rapid ageing and large, informal labor markets pose challenges for Asian social protection systems, while making the role of the state even more essential. This is followed in Section 3 by an overview of social security systems in Asia. The key point is that while there are fairly elaborate social security programs in Asia, primarily for formal sector employees, this does not necessarily imply that the schemes are well designed, have wide coverage, or are financially sustainable. Section 4 discusses four general avenues to strengthening social protection systems. These emphasize greater professionalism, parametric and systemic reforms, social assistance, and social pensions, as well as others such as microfinance institution-initiated pensions. The final section provides concluding observations. The global economic crisis provides a potential opportunity for strengthening social protection systems. However, the construction of multitiered social protection systems will require much greater professionalism, experimentation, political and organizational leadership, and vision.
    Keywords: H55 ; H87 ; J11 ; J18 ; J21 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; Soziale Sicherung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Sozialpolitik ; Asien
    Language: English
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  • 38
    Book
    Book
    New York, NY [u.a.] : Routledge
    Keywords: Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alter ; Verbraucherverhalten ; Entscheidungsverhalten ; Older consumers ; Consumer behavior ; Consumption (Economics) ; Marketing ; USA ; Aufsatzsammlung ; USA ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alter ; Verbraucherverhalten ; Entscheidungsverhalten
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: XXI, 301 S. , Ill., graph. Darst.
    Edition: 1. publ.
    ISBN: 9781848728103 , 9781848728110
    Series Statement: Marketing and consumer psychology series
    DDC: 658.8/340846
    RVK:
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  • 39
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    München: ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2017-08-04
    Keywords: H60 ; J11 ; J14 ; J21 ; ddc:330 ; Intergenerative Belastungsrechnung ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Demographie ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Vergleich ; International ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 40
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    Dublin: The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: Ireland will experience population ageing in the coming years, whereby the percentage of the population aged 65 and over will rise from its current level of 11 percent to over 20 percent in 2035. A number of papers have looked at the implications of this process for the public finances. However, less attention has been paid to the human resource needs that will arise if increased demands are placed on health and social care systems. In this paper, we provide projections of the possible numbers that will be needed to work in the health and social care sectors out to 2035. We also consider what proportion of the extra employees will be migrants. We discuss both practical and ethical issues which arise when foreign health and social care workers are recruited.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Gesundheitsversorgung ; Pflegeberufe ; Ausländische Arbeitskräfte ; Einwanderung ; Prognose ; Irland
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Providence, RI: Brown University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-07-03
    Description: This paper explores the implications of Unified Growth Theory for the origins of existing differences in income per capita across countries. The theory sheds light on three fundamental layers of comparative development. It identifies the factors that have governed the pace of the transition from stagnation to growth and have thus contributed to contemporary variation in economic development. It uncovers the forces that have sparked the emergence of multiple growth regimes and convergence clubs, and it underlines the persistent effects that variations in pre-historical biogeographical conditions have generated on the composition of human capital and economic development across the globe.
    Keywords: F40 ; O11 ; O14 ; O15 ; O33 ; O40 ; J10 ; J13 ; N0 ; ddc:330 ; Growth ; Comparative Development ; Globalization ; Technological Progress ; Demographic Transition ; Diversity ; Human Capital ; Malthusian Stagnation ; Wachstumstheorie ; Einkommensverteilung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Vergleich ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Humankapital ; Technischer Fortschritt ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: growth in GDP especially, but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15-24 age group appears to be one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting strong positive effects on GDP growth, and negative effects on the CAB and GCF. There have been major shifts in the share of the population aged 15-24 during the past half century or more, many of which correspond closely to periods of institutional turmoil. The hypothesis presented in this paper is that increases in the share of the 15-24 age group lead producers to ratchet up their production expectations and take out loans to expand production capacity; but then reductions in that share - or even declining rates of increase - confound these expectations and precipitate a downward spiral of missed loan payments and even defaults and bankruptcies, putting pressure on central banks and causing foreign investors to withdraw funds and speculators to unload the local currency. This appears to have been the pattern not only during the 1996-98 crisis with the Asian Tigers, but also during the Tequila crisis of the early 1990s, the crises that occurred in the early 1980s among developed as well as developing nations, and the economic problems Japan has experienced since about 1990. The effect appears to be even more pronounced for the current 2008-2009 period.
    Keywords: J1 ; E3 ; F3 ; F4 ; ddc:330 ; Age structure ; currency crisis ; demographic change ; financial crisis ; Altersstruktur der Bevölkerung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Bevölkerungsökonomie ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Leistungsbilanz ; Investition ; Sparen ; Schulden ; Bankenkrise ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Welt ; Schwellenländer
    Language: English
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  • 43
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    Hamilton (Ontario): McMaster University, Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The Expert Panel on Older Workers made recommendations designed to increase the labour force participation of older workers. We explore the implications that higher rates of older-worker participation would have for the overall size and age composition of the labour force, for the productive capacity of the economy, and for the incomes of Canadians. Our purpose is to assess the potential impact that increased participation of older workers might have in offsetting any anticipated adverse effects of population aging on standards of living.
    Keywords: J21 ; J24 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; older worker ; participation rates ; productive capacity ; population aging ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Erwerbspersonenpotenzial ; Prognose ; Kanada
    Language: English
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  • 44
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: Why do people have kids in developed societies? We propose an empirical test of two alternative theories - children as consumption” vs. investment” good. We use as a natural experiment the Italian pension reforms of the 90s that introduced a clear discontinuity in the treatment across workers. This policy experiment is particularly well suited, since the consumption” motive predicts lower future pensions to reduce fertility, while the old-age security” to increase it. Our empirical analysis identifies a clear and robust positive effect of less generous future pensions on post-reform fertility. These findings are consistent with old-age security” even for contemporary fertility.
    Keywords: H55 ; J13 ; D64 ; ddc:330 ; old-age security ; public pension systems ; fertility ; altruism ; Fruchtbarkeit ; Kinder ; Investition ; Konsumgut ; Rentenreform ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Italien
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We use a cohort based model to analyse determinants of labour force participation for disaggregated groups of workers in the euro area and the five largest euro area countries. The model captures age and cohort effects as indicators of (unobserved) determinants of participation behaviour. We use these effects and observed determinants to construct trends and projections of labour supply. Our results suggest that age and cohort effects can account for a substantial part of the recent increase in participation. Cohort effects are particularly relevant for women with those born in the late 1960s and early 1970s more likely to participate over the life-cycle. There is substantial variation in the estimated age and cohort effects across countries. Looking forward, positive cohort effects for women are not large enough to compensate for the downward impact of population ageing on participation rates in the euro area.
    Keywords: J11 ; J21 ; ddc:330 ; cohort analysis ; labour force participation ; Labour market institutions ; Erwerbstätigkeit ; Arbeitsangebot ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Kohortenanalyse ; Eurozone
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2015-05-22
    Description: The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. A recent paper by Young (2005), however, suggests that similar to the Black Death episode in Europe, HIV/AIDS will actually lead to higher growth per capita among the a affected African countries. Not only will population decline, behavioral responses in fertility will reinforce this decline by reducing the willingness to engage in unprotected sex. We utilize recent rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys that link an individual woman's fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allows us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility. In contrast to Young (2005), however, we find that local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on non-infected women's fertility.
    Keywords: O12 ; I12 ; J13 ; ddc:330 ; HIV/AIDS ; fertility ; economic development ; AIDS ; Verhalten ; Frauen ; Fruchtbarkeit ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Afrika
    Language: English
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  • 47
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    Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-07
    Description: Population aging will be a major determinant of long-run economic development in industrial and developing countries. The extent of the demographic changes is dramatic in some countries and will deeply affect future labor, financial and goods markets. The expected strain on public budgets and especially social security has already received prominent attention, but aging poses many other economic challenges that threaten productivity and growth if they remain unaddressed. There is no shortage of policy proposals to address population aging. However, little is known about behavioral reactions, e.g., to pension and labor market reform. This paper sheds light on such reactions in three large Continental European countries. France, Germany, and Italy have large pay-as-you-go pension systems and vulnerable labor markets. At the same time, these countries show remarkable resistance against pension and labor market reform. Key issues taken up in this paper are interactions between pension and labor market policies, and the behavioral reactions to reform. Which behavioral reactions will strengthen, which will weaken reform policies? Can Old Europe prosper even if behavioral reactions counter current reform efforts?
    Keywords: J11 ; J21 ; D13 ; E27 ; H55 ; F16 ; F21 ; ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Soziale Sicherung ; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung ; Umlageverfahren ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Rentenreform ; Arbeitsmarktpolitik ; Prognose ; Deutschland ; Italien ; Frankreich
    Language: English
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  • 48
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: We show that in a large class of distributed optimal control models (DOCM), where population is described by a McKendrick type equation with an endogenous number of newborns, the reproductive value of Fisher shows up as part of the shadow price of the population. Depending on the objective function, the reproductive value may be negative. Moreover, we show results of the reproductive value for changing vital rates. To motivate and demonstrate the general framework, we provide examples in health economics, epidemiology, and population biology.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; Reproductive value ; distributed optimal control theory ; McKendrick ; shadow price ; indirect effect ; health economics ; epidemiology ; population biology ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Opportunitätskosten ; Kontrolltheorie ; Gesundheitsökonomik ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 49
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    Vienna: Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW), Vienna Institute of Demography (VID)
    Publication Date: 2015-04-27
    Description: Persistent low fertility rates lead to lower population growth rates and eventually also to decreasing population sizes in most industrialized countries. There are fears that this demographic development is associated with declines in per capita GDP and possibly also increasing inequality of the wage distribution. We investigate whether this is true in the context of neoclassical growth models, augmented with endogenous fertility decisions and endogenous educational decisions. Furthermore we allow for imperfect substitutability across workers of different age in the production process and learning by doing effects as well as human capital depreciation. In particular, we assess the intergenerational wage redistribution effects which follow after a demographic change to persistent low fertility rates.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Population decline ; economic growth ; intergenerational wage gap ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Lohnstruktur ; Generationengerechtigkeit ; Neoklassik ; Wachstumstheorie ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 50
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    Kingston (Ontario): Queen's University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-12-05
    Description: We explore the impact of one of the earlier epidemics to hit natives living in the Hudson Bay drainage basin: the smallpox outbreak of 1780-82. We review contemporary descriptions of the epidemic and how Europeans at the time viewed its impact on the native population of the region. We then explore the impact of the epidemic using three approaches. First, we summarize the experience with other smallpox outbreaks including those among so-called 'virgin soil' populations. Next we place the epidemic in the context of the fur trade of the region; and finally, we suggest a measure of the population decline based on backward projections of later population estimates and the likely pre-epidemic population given the carrying capacity of the region in terms of large game. Our results for this particular epidemic, as we argue in the concluding section, may have broad implications for the interpretation of pre-contact aboriginal populations and the impact of European-carried disease.
    Keywords: J11 ; N31 ; N51 ; ddc:330 ; population ; native americans ; smallpox ; Indigene Völker ; Internationale Wanderung ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Epidemie ; Sozialgeschichte ; Kanada
    Language: English
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  • 51
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    München: ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-05-30
    Description: The present study reports on results emerging from the research project «Fertility and Prosperity: Links between Demography and Growth» that was commissioned to the Ifo Institute by Deutscher Arbeitskreis für Familienhilfe e.V., Kirchzarten, in December 2003. The study adopts a two-stage research strategy, comprising (a) a broad-based econometric investigation regarding potential long-term consequences of demographic change for the economic performance in developed as well as developing countries and (b) a survey of fertility outcomes and family policies in a limited number of developed countries. The results indicate that the decline in fertility observed in the past, through its impact on the size and age-composition of the labour force, may have a substantial negative impact on the growth of aggregate output, output per capita and productivity in countries that are strongly affected by this trend. At the same time, our econometric results confirm that increasing fertility rates in countries where they are currently low is mainly a matter of the existing institutional framework and of related policy decisions. This is further demonstrated through an in-depth discussion of a wide range of policy measures applying to families and children in Germany, France, the UK, and Sweden.
    Description: Die vorliegende Studie dokumentiert die Resultate des Forschungsprojekts "Fertility and Prosperity: Links between Demography and Growth", mit dem der Deutsche Arbeitskreis für Familienhilfe e.V., Kirchzarten, das ifo Institut im Dezember 2003 beauftragt hat. Die Studie verfolgt eine zweistufige Forschungsstrategie, (a) mit einer breit angelegten ökonometrischen Analyse möglicher Zusammenhänge zwischen demographischem Wandel und ökonomischer Entwicklung in zahlreichen Industrie- und Entwicklungsländern sowie (b) mit einem Überblick über Geburtenentwicklung und familienpolitische Rahmenbedingungen in einer begrenzten Zahl hochentwickelter Länder. Die Ergebnisse zeigen an, dass der in der Vergangenheit eingetretene Geburtenrückgang durch seine Auswirkungen auf Größe und Altersaufbau der Erwerbsbevölkerung einen nennenswerten negativen Effekt für das Wachstum von Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Pro- Kopf-Einkommen und die Produktivität der verbleibenden Erwerbstätigen haben kann wo immer dieser Trend besonders ausgeprägt war. Zugleich deuten die ökonometrischen Befunde darauf hin, dass eine Steigerung der Geburtenrate in Ländern mit niedriger Fertilität vor allem eine Frage institutioneller Rahmenbedingungen und darauf bezogener politischer Entscheidungen ist. Durch die vertiefte Diskussion eines breiten Spektrums familienpolitischer Maßnahmen in Deutschland, Frankreich, dem Vereinigten Königreich und Schweden wird diese Einsicht weiter konkretisiert.
    Keywords: D91 ; J13 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; Fruchtbarkeit ; Lebensstandard ; Demographie ; Bevölkerungsökonomie ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Fertilität ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Familienpolitik ; Deutschland ; Frankreich ; Großbritannien ; Schweden
    Language: English
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  • 52
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    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper aims to address the issue of public pension reforms under demographic ageing that is likely to occur in Europe over the next 50 years. Three possible scenarios are analysed in a Blanchard OLG framework. These include: i) a decrease both in public pensions and the lump sum labour income tax, ii) a decrease both in public pensions and the distortionary corporate tax, iii) an increase in the retirement age. The analysis focuses on the effects of these fiscal policies on key economic variables such as consumption, private and public debt, output and wages. Quantitative experiments assess the impact of different fiscal policies in terms of public debt sustainability but most importantly suggest policies that smooth the transition of the economy to the new equilibrium. The main results suggest that the adverse effects of pension reforms on consumption are moderated when they are accompanied by appropriate taxation policies. In particular, when the tax response is rapid most of the adverse movement in consumption is avoided while public and national debt reach lower equilibrium levels.
    Keywords: E6 ; H3 ; J1 ; H55 ; ddc:330 ; Ageing ; overlapping generations ; Pension Reforms ; Taxation ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Lebenszyklus ; Overlapping Generations ; Kleine offene Volkswirtschaft
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Unknown
    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: In this paper we study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries make it clear that urbanization and industrialization are strongly associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe a model economy in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together. We study an economy with two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial). The decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Furthermore, the level of social security is determined by majority voting. We show that a calibrated version of this economy is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States. Initially a majority of voters live on the farm and do not want to implement social security. Once a majority of the voters move to the city, the median voter prefers a positive social security tax. In the model social security emerges and is sustained over time as a political and economic equilibrium. Modeling the political economy of social security within a model of structural change leads to a rich economic environment in which the median voter is identified by both age and location.
    Keywords: H55 ; ddc:330 ; Social security ; political economy ; structural change ; migration ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Strukturwandel ; Sozialversicherung ; Landwirtschaft ; Industrie ; Wirtschaftsmodell ; Wirtschaftsgeschichte ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Unknown
    Milano: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: The analysis finds that in addition to U-shaped paths of environmental quality arising for growth in income per capita, growth in population can also produce socially efficient patterns that are U-shaped. Sufficient conditions for both types of paths are identified for a range of models and parameters, including symmetrical models with homothetic, constant-returns functions such as with CES functions. Similar results are also shown to arise in decentralized economies under either homogeneous or heterogeneous income levels.
    Keywords: Q2 ; D61 ; O13 ; ddc:330 ; Environmental Kuznets Curve ; Economic Growth ; Environmental Quality ; Umweltbelastung ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Environmental Kuznets Curve ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Theorie