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  • 1
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    Calgary: University of Calgary Press
    Publication Date: 2019-10-23
    Description: Canada is the one of the first in-depth studies of China's increasing interest in the Arctic. It offers a holistic approach to understanding Chinese motivations and the potential impacts of greater Chinese presence in the circumpolar region, exploring resource development, shipping, scientific research, governance, and security. Drawing on extensive research in Chinese government documentation, business and media reports, and current academic literature, this timely volume eschews the common assumption that China poses an acute threat to Arctic states' polar interests. Instead, it offers a nuanced assessment of how different Chinese stakeholders approach the region and how carefully managed relationships can contribute to positive circumpolar development. Analyzing Chinese interests and activities from a Canadian perspective, the book provides an unparalleled point of reference to discuss the implications for the Canadian and broader circumpolar North.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Beziehungen ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Rohstoffpolitik ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Transitverkehr ; Frachtschifffahrt ; Kanada ; China
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Description: When President Trump came into office the US administration launched a detailed analysis of American trade relations. It aimed to identify "unfair trade practices" that are supposedly increasingly being used by other countries, and that are economically damaging to America. This study simulates potential protectionist trade policies on the part of the USA using historical data. The results enable a comprehensive analysis of the political debate and, above all, of its meaningfulness. The study illustrates that the USA does actually face economic imbalances, and especially high trade deficits, which are increasingly causing upsets in individual branches within the States. At the same time, however, the study also makes it clear that the solution to such economic challenges does not lie in a protectionist trade policy. On the contrary, such a policy would only exacerbate problems in the long term. The study ends with a policy recommendation for the USA and the functioning, rule-based, multilateral trade system.
    Description: Die neue US-Administration hat mit der Amtsübernahme Präsident Trumps eine detaillierte Analyse der amerikanischen Handelsbeziehungen initiiert. Ziel ist die Identifizierung 'unfairer Handelspraktiken', die vermeintlich durch andere Nationen zunehmend eingesetzt werden und den USA wirtschaftlich schaden. Die vorliegende Studie analysiert die angedrohten protektionistischen Handelspolitiken der USA unter Heranziehung historischer Daten. Auf Basis der vorliegenden Ergebnisse ist eine umfassende Bewertung der politischen Debatte und insbesondere ihrer Sinnhaftigkeit möglich. Die Studie illustriert, dass die USA mit ökonomischen Ungleichgewichten konfrontiert sind, insbesondere mit hohen Handelsdefiziten, die zunehmend zu Verstimmungen in einzelnen Industrien innerhalb der USA führen. Zugleich wird aber aus der Studie auch deutlich, dass die Lösung für solche wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen nicht in einer protektionistischen Handelspolitik zu finden ist, im Gegenteil. Eine solche Politik würde die Probleme auf lange Sicht nur verschärfen. Die Studie schließt mit einer Politikempfehlung im Sinne der USA und des funktionierenden regelbasierten, multilateralen Handelssystems.
    Keywords: F10 ; F13 ; F53 ; ddc:330 ; Außenhandel ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Protektionismus ; Zoll ; Handelshemmnisse ; Auslandsinvestition ; NAFTA-Staaten ; WTO-Recht ; USA ; Welt
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 3
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: F01 ; F10 ; ddc:330 ; Außenhandel ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Wohlfahrtsanalyse ; Handelsabkommen ; Mitteleuropa ; Osteuropa ; TTIP
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Bucharest: The Research Institute for Agricultural Economy and Rural Development (ICEADR)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-04
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Agrarökonomik ; Ländliche Entwicklung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Description: Since June 2007, the EU and India have been negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement, but negotiations broke down in 2013. Nevertheless, both sides have expressed their desire to revive talks on the Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA). To quantify potential economic consequences, we use a multi-country, multi-industry Ricardian trade model with national and international input-output linkages. Based on the assumption that the FTA would eliminate all tariffs between the EU and India and reduce non-tariff barriers, we simulate trade, value added, and welfare effects of the BTIA. The long-run level of real per capita income would change by 1.30% in India and by 0.14% in the EU. We find that outsiders to the agreement remain largely unaffected relative to the status quo. However, substantial regional heterogeneity exists across the 134 geographical, investigated entities. Due to an agreement, EU-Indian trade could approximately double particularly in business services. We find a small amount of trade diversion due to tightly integrated value chains, but a clear effect on structural change in India. So, at a first glance, both parties should have an interest in forming a FTA.
    Keywords: F02 ; F13 ; F23 ; ddc:330 ; Außenhandel ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Handelshemmnisse ; Auslandsinvestition ; Indien ; EU-Staaten ; Außenhandel ; Auslandsinvestition ; Handelshemmnisse ; EU-Staaten ; Indien
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Brussels: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: The election of Trump into the Oval Office is much of a non-event for EU trade-policy detail, possibly even the TTIP: they have been deteriorating for years. Europe and the global trading system can survive new trade frictions and creeping protectionism, but a Trump that wants to go radical will make everyone miserable.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Handelspräferenzen ; TTIP-Staaten ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Heidelberg: Springer
    Publication Date: 2017-05-30
    Description: This paper considers the education of the labour force based on an analysis of trends in and the relationships between job polarization and skills mismatch. Both job polarization and skills mismatch have become topics of increasing interest, but relationships between the two have been relatively neglected in the literature. We argue that the relationship between polarization and skills mismatch is an empirical matter, which we analyse at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level in European countries. A novel job polarization index (JPI) is proposed to measure imbalanced job polarization. It takes into account not only the change in the share of medium-level jobs, as is typical for measuring pure polarization, but also the imbalance between the change in high-level and low-level jobs. Skills mismatch at macro-level is measured by a skills mismatch index (SMI), while traditional measures of undereducation and overeducation are used at the microeconomic level. At the macroeconomic level, we estimate a system of two equations, one for each of the country-level variables gauging polarization and mismatch, respectively. Imbalanced job polarization measured by the JPI negatively affects skills mismatch at the macroeconomic level (SMI), but there is no significant reverse effect. Thereafter we consider the microeconomic level and study the determinants of mismatch using multi-level mixed effects logistic models. The effect of imbalanced job polarization on individual-level mismatch was arguably favourable for individuals in non-crisis time, decreasing overeducation risk although also increasing the chances of undereducation, both gauged using the normative measure, but unfavourable during the global financial crisis of 2008 - 2009 and the following two years.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Berufsstruktur ; mismatch - internationaler Vergleich ; Überqualifikation ; Unterqualifikation ; Qualifikationsanforderungen ; Arbeitskräftenachfrage ; Qualifikationsstruktur ; Arbeitskräfteangebot ; Europa ; Luxemburg ; Portugal ; Frankreich ; Irland ; Slowenien ; Kroatien ; Schweiz ; Litauen ; Schweden ; Ungarn ; Belgien ; Norwegen ; Polen ; Dänemark ; Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Island ; Rumänien ; Lettland ; Estland ; Österreich ; Finnland ; Spanien ; Niederlande ; Griechenland ; Tschechische Republik ; Italien ; Slowakei
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: F02 ; F13 ; F50 ; ddc:330 ; Zollunion ; Strategie ; Außenhandel ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; EU-Staaten ; Türkei
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Oxford: University of Oxford, Global Economic Governance Programme (GEG)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-17
    Description: The global trade and investment architecture (GTIA) plays a critical role in shaping the organisation and structure of international commerce - from production and distribution to consumption. Yet, tensions and questions abound - some longstanding, some new - about whose interests it best advances, its distributional impacts, and its responsiveness to changing market forces and political demands. Although there is a regular supply of proposals on rules and policies for global trade and investment, critical thinking on the trade and investment architecture is less prevalent. This paper seeks to update and bolster the analytical foundations for such discussion by reviewing the changing demands on the global architecture for trade and investment, and by mapping its contours. To begin, we review the changing global landscape for trade and investment, the key policy debates, and the myriad pressures on policymakers - arguing that these have implications for what is needed in terms of a global architecture. Alongside key enduring challenges, we identify important shifts and game changers in trade and investment flows, which in turn spur new policy challenges and implications for the governance architecture. Second, we present a systematic mapping of the contemporary global architecture for trade and investment currently, noting its on-going evolution. In so doing, we underscore that the trade and investment architecture is broader in scope and more complex, with a wider array of actors and functions, than commonly recognised or discussed in scholarly work. We also argue for analysing the trade and investment architecture in a unified fashion. Further, the paper highlights the changing ways that governments and stakeholders seek to advance international cooperation on trade and investment. The proliferation of private standards and the emphasis on "behind the border" regulatory matters illustrate the expanding array of relevant actors relevant to international trade and investment diplomacy, and the rising interest in moving beyond treaty negotiations to new modalities for cooperation - ranging from soft law approaches and technical cooperation to public-private partnerships.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationales Abkommen ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Internationales Investitionsrecht ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Oxford: University of Oxford, Global Economic Governance Programme (GEG)
    Publication Date: 2019-05-17
    Description: Over recent years, many states have taken steps to refine and modernize their investment treaties. They have done this to, among other things, clarify what were often vaguely worded standards, insert provisions on procedural and jurisdictional questions, and expand the express ability of states to issue binding interpretations on certain questions. Together, these reforms can help narrow states' exposure to claims and liability under investment treaties. Those reforms, however, are typically only included in newer treaties or model agreements. States typically have legacies of existing treaties that are "old-style" and therefore are still exposed to claims, litigation, and potential damages awarded under those agreements. To mitigate that exposure, states can exercise the important powers they possess as "masters of their treaties" and use practice and agreement to help shape interpretation of treaty provisions. This note focuses on this strategy. In addition to setting out the general rules regarding state practice and agreement as a means of influencing treaty interpretation, it (1) identifies three issues in investment treaty law - FET, MFN, and shareholder rights - that may be particularly ripe for proactive efforts by states applying this interpretive strategy; and (2) sets out a series of questions that aim to facilitate interstate efforts to identify consensus on these controversial treaty provisions.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Internationales Investitionsrecht ; Internationales Abkommen
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Frederiksberg: Copenhagen Business School (CBS), Asia Research Centre (ARC)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-11
    Description: China's impressive development since the introduction of market-oriented reforms in the late 1970s has had a considerable impact on the world economy. After a first decade and a half of cautious experiments with liberalization, markets, and internationalization, Chinese reforms accelerated in the early 1990s and the Chinese economy started growing at a rate that has not been matched by any other country. The GDP growth rate has averaged nearly 10 percent per year since that time. China has become the world's largest exporter and one of the largest importers, with a huge domestic market driven both by export-oriented industry and nearly 1.4 billion increasingly affluent domestic consumers. It is one of the main destinations for foreign direct investment (FDI) and has also become an important outward investor. The emergence of this new economic superpower has created both opportunities and challenges for other countries. The purpose of this paper is to focus on some of the challenges and to discuss three imbalances that put pressure on the relationship between the EU and China. These concern the large deficit in Europe's trade with China, the unequal conditions for European investment in China and Chinese investment in Europe, and the EU's inability to agree on a common China policy.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Auslandsinvestition ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; China ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Linz: Johannes Kepler University of Linz, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-10-26
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Auslandsinvestition ; Handelshemmnisse ; USA ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Freizügigkeit ; Rumänen ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
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  • 14
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    Bochum: Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Institut für Entwicklungsforschung und Entwicklungspolitik (IEE)
    Publication Date: 2019-03-05
    Description: We investigate the impact of Chinese activities in sub-Saharan African countries with respect to the growth performance of economies in that region. Using a Solow-type growth model and panel data for the period 1991 to 2011, we find that African economies that export natural resources have benefited from positive terms-of-trade effects. In addition, there is evidence for displacement effects of African firms due to competition from China. Chinese foreign investment and aid in Africa does not have an impact on growth.
    Keywords: F14 ; F23 ; F35 ; O47 ; ddc:330 ; China ; Sub-Saharan Africa ; Trade ; FDI ; Foreign aid ; Economic growth ; South-south cooperation ; Auslandsinvestition ; Entwicklungshilfe ; Chinesisch ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; China ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Subsahara-Afrika
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: F13 ; ddc:330 ; Exportkredit ; Staatliche Einflußnahme ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Deutschland
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Agrarentwicklung in Mittel- und Osteuropa (IAMO)
    Publication Date: 2014-02-21
    Description: Searching for possible viable economic pathways for small-scale farms in Eastern Europe, this study is concerned with Community Supported Agriculture (CSA). We are mainly interested in the costs and benefits for both sides, the farmers and the consumers, when entering into a direct, trust-based market relationship in the form of CSA. The study is theoretically embedded in the concept of solidarity economy. The analysis is based on three cases of farmers pioneering the CSA concept in Romania by offering organic vegetable to their local contracted consumers in the Western part of the country. All three CSA groups were initiated by a local NGO. Our empirical results shed light on CSA partnerships in Romania. With regard to consumers we find that they are drawn from a specific group of urban dwellers with higher education and income, and a particular interest in health and nutrition. Consumers show a high level of trust to their partner farmers: this is the basis for a functioning economic relationship. Solidarity is a value that is aspired by the initiating NGO. It is existing as one of the values sought by consumers when taking part in CSA. More important than solidarity is, however, the consumers' wish for organic-quality fresh products, which are not available elsewhere. On the producers´ side, the need for a stable market with fair prices is the main motivation to get involved in CSA. Thus, both farmers and consumer compensate for market failures through the CSA partnership.
    Description: Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit dem Phänomen der Solidarischen Landwirtschaft, welche einen möglichen Ausweg aus der schwierigen Situation für Kleinbetriebe in Osteuropa bieten könnte. Der Schwerpunkt des Interesses liegt auf den Kosten und dem Nutzen für die Akteure - Landwirte und ihre Konsumenten - wenn diese eine auf Vertrauen basierte Marktbeziehung in Form der Solidarischen Landwirtschaft eingehen. Die Studie ist theoretisch in das Konzept der Solidarischen Ökonomie eingebettet. Die Analyse basiert auf drei Fallstudien rumänischer Kleinbetriebe, die als Pioniere das Konzept der Solidarischen Landwirtschaft in Rumänien anwenden, indem sie Gemüse ökologisch anbauen, und an ihre urbanen Vertragspartner liefern. In allen drei Fällen war eine lokale Nichtregierungsorganisation Initiator. Unsere empirischen Ergebnisse geben Einblick in rumänischen Partnerschaften der Solidarischen Landwirtschaft. Die Konsumenten rekrutieren sich aus einer spezifischen Gruppe urbaner Verbraucher. Diese zeichnet sich durch relativ hohe Bildung und Einkommen sowie ihr ausgeprägtes Interesse an Gesundheits- und Ernährungsfragen aus. Die Verbraucher zeigen einen hohen Grad an Vertrauen in ihre landwirtschaftlichen Vertragspartner, was wohl als einer der Schlüsselfaktoren für das Funktionieren der Partnerschaft gesehen werden kann. Solidarität stand im Mittelpunkt des Interesses der initiierenden Organisation. In der praktischen Umsetzung zeigt sich, dass Solidarität in der Tat einer der Werte ist, den die teilnehm enden Konsumenten realisieren wollen. Gewichtiger ist allerdings der Wunsch nach frischen Nahrungsmitteln aus ökologischer Landwirtschaft, die sonst kaum auf dem Markt zu erhalten sind. Die Motivation der Produzenten liegt vornehmlich in dem Wunsch begründet, einen stabilen Absatzmarkt mit fairen Preisen zu betreten. Beide Seiten kompensieren also durch die Partnerschaft bestehendes Marktversagen.
    Keywords: Q13 ; P13 ; O18 ; P32 ; ddc:330 ; community supported agriculture ; CSA ; small farmers ; organic farming ; Romania ; solidarity economy ; rural development ; solidarische Landwirtschaft ; kleinbäuerliche Familienbetriebe ; ökologische Landwirtschaft ; Rumänien ; Solidarische Ökonomie ; ländliche Entwicklung
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: This study contributes to the literature on the competitiveness of Romanian exports with a new perspective over the decade 2001-2011, by overlapping of two complementary analyses: of the export performance dynamics and of the domestic revenues created by export manufacturers and their suppliers. The analyzed period includes the period of global economic growth (mainly 2003-2007) and the first years of the economic crisis (2009-2011 ). The year 2007, when Romania joined the European Union, is in the middle of the analyzed period. The dynamics of Romania's export performance was assessed through a specific method combining three different research lines(1) changes in the ranking of exported products in the reference years 2001 and 2011, (2) evolution of the performance of key products exported in 2001 and (3) the position in 2001 of key products exported in 2011. The analysis of domestic revenues created by export manufacturers and their suppliers provides, for the first time for Romania a brief study on the position of the country on the global value chain, following the logic proposed by the European Commission in its last two European Competitiveness Reports (2012 and 2013). When corroborated, the results of the two analyses can be used to discuss the extent to which the current structure of exports contributes to the generation of domestic revenues and as such might prove useful in the debate on the identification of a country brand for Romania. In order to achieve the latter goal, we conducted two detailed case studies on two reference sectors of the Romanian economy: motor vehicles and creative industries. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Export ; Performance-Messung ; Einnahmen ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; EU-Binnenmarkt ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
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  • 18
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Energiemarkt ; Erdgasmarkt ; Deregulierung ; Energiepolitik ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
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  • 19
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: In this study, we analyse the manner of developing a particular system of coordination of European affairs at national level, as well as its efficiency, the aim being to provide suggestions for improving it. The introductory section highlights the need for such a study, given the current political and institutional context of Romania, and it states the objectives of the study. Special attention is given to presenting the theoretical approach (expressing, on the one hand, the authors' vision that European affairs - distinctly from foreign affairs - are part of the complex governance process specific for the European Union (EU) and, on the other hand, operationalizing the idea of efficiency within a national system for coordinating European affairs, etc.) and the research methodology (reasons for choosing a comparative research design to support the presented arguments, as well as the qualitative research performed). In the first part, the paper also provides information on the legislative and institutional configuration of the EU, following the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, because the novelties and reforms brought by this regulatory framework (supperior to the one of the Nice Treaty, but inferior to the proposals stipulated within the Constitutional Treaty) have a direct impact on designing the structure for coordinating European affairs in the Member States. Given that in Romania the European affairs coordination system was initially inspired by the French model, while later suffering a series of institutional changes (some inspired by models from other EU states), an important part of the study addresses the need to know, from a comparative perspective, the best practices in European affairs coordination and cooperation mechanisms in other EU Member States. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Politik ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
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  • 20
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: The study "Perspectives of the Migration Policy in Romania's Current Demographic Context" belongs to the thematic series of papers dedicated to migration initiated by the European Institute of Romania. If initially the issue of migrations analysed the relationship between the Romanian migrants and the European common space ("Free Movement of People" - 2002, "The Migration Phenomenon in Romania from the Perspective of Romania's Adherence to the European Union" - 2004 and "European Perspectives on Asylum and Migration" - 2008), the new suggested themes sought to expand the migrations' topic. In this respect, after analysing and assessing the effects of external migrations in the context of free movement within the communitary space, the European Institute of Romania (EIR) suggests a new scientific challenge, which is also of public interest, namely the analysis of migrations and the relative policies in the context of profound transformations of demographic structures in Romania. The topicality of this issue is confirmed by the increasing interest shown by numerous representatives of the scientific environment, as well as by experts within public institutions or interested politicians. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Migration ; Freizügigkeit ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Migrationspolitik ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
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  • 21
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: F13 ; F53 ; ddc:330 ; Handelsabkommen ; Investitionspolitik ; Außenhandel ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; EU-Staaten ; USA ; TTIP
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-06-04
    Description: The present study aims, in the first part, to examine the trends evidenced at the level of international trade and extra-community trade flows and, at the same time, the new directions of the EU trade policy in relation with the rest of the world. In the second part, it brings to the forefront the main trends of the Romanian trade as well as the Romanian export competitiveness and ways towards their sustainable development. These issues are analyzed and presented in seven sections, as follows: I. Developments, trends and structural changes in international trade in goods II. Main characteristics of the extra-community trade in goods during 2000-2011. Romania's position in these exchanges III. EU trade policy and its impact on the Romanian foreign trade IV. General directions of the Romanian foreign trade during 2000-2011. Assessment of the Romanian export competitiveness. The role of FDI in promoting exports V. Benchmarking best practices in export support and promotion. Role played by national and international organizations VI. Challenges and perspectives of the Romanian exports VII. Ways towards sustainable export development. Role of the National Export Strategy. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Export ; Außenhandel ; EU-Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
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  • 23
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    Bucharest: The Research Institute for Agricultural Economy and Rural Development (ICEADR)
    Publication Date: 2015-07-08
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Agrarökonomik ; Ländliche Entwicklung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    München: ifo Institut - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2018-11-22
    Keywords: F13 ; F53 ; ddc:330 ; Handelsabkommen ; Investitionspolitik ; Außenhandel ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; EU-Staaten ; USA ; TTIP
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Vienna: Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-26
    Description: The electronics manufacturing sector has played a prominent role in export-oriented development strategies, as participation in this high-tech industry promises access to new technology, high skilled jobs and a fast-growing market. Against this background, many governments in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have sought to attract investment in this sector, where foreign firms became the key actors in reshaping after 1989 and where integrating into global production networks (GPNs) was widely embraced as a means to modernize and upgrade local industries. We assess to what extent the potential benefits arising from integrating into electronics GPNs have materialized in Hungary, an established player and the most important electronics exporting country in the region, and Romania, a newcomer country in electronics manufacturing. To analyse these questions, we look at the organizational and geographical configuration of the electronics sector and examine the impact integration into these networks has had on local firms and workers and to what extent this integration has led to economic and social upgrading. With regard to economic upgrading processes, we suggest that the upgrading concept needs to pay more attention to the 'reach' of economic upgrading. This is particularly important when integration into GPNs takes place via foreign direct investment (FDI), where economic upgrading processes may be focused on transnational corporations (TNCs) with limited spillovers to local firms. The social upgrading trajectory is influenced importantly by global industry dynamics, for example high flexibility pressures and the tiered nature of the workforce in electronics GPNs, and countries' specific institutional and regulatory contexts.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; global production networks ; electronics sector ; foreign direct investment ; economic upgrading ; social upgrading ; Central and Eastern Europe ; Hungary ; Romania ; Elektronisches Produkt ; Internationale Arbeitsteilung ; Auslandsinvestition ; Ungarn ; Rumänien ; Osteuropa
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    Uppsala: Uppsala University, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: Recent literature exploring fetal shocks has focused on the effects of exogenous, but rather rare and violent events (e.g., military conflicts, natural disasters, terrorist attacks) and found that in utero experience has scaring, life lasting consequences. In this paper we consider the effect of an arguably more common and milder shock generated by a major and unexpected, albeit temporary, wage cut policy that affected all public sector employees in Romania in 2010. Our main findings suggest an overall improvement in the health at birth (as measured by the low birth weight indicator) of the cohorts exposed to the shock. Moreover, we find significant improvements in health at birth exclusively for boys and not for girls. This effect seems to be driven by significant effects of males exposed to the shock early in gestation. Additionally, we also find a decreased male to female ratio at birth for the cohort exposed to the shock. Overall, our results are consistent with the so-called culling theory hypothesizing that maternal exposure to significant stress early in gestation selects against male frail fetuses and, as a result of this selection in utero, at birth, one should observe significant improvements in health outcomes in the male cohorts.
    Keywords: I19 ; J13 ; J38 ; Z18 ; ddc:330 ; wage cut ; transitory income shock ; neonatal health ; selection in utero ; Romania ; Lohn ; Schock ; Mütter ; Fertilität ; Kinder ; Gesundheit ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Geneva: World Trade Organization (WTO)
    Publication Date: 2019-03-20
    Description: Natural resources account for 20% of world trade, and dominate the exports of many countries. Policy is used to manipulate both international and domestic prices of resources, yet this policy is largely outside the disciplines of the WTO. The instruments used include export taxes, price controls, production quotas, and domestic producer and consumer taxes (equivalent to trade taxes if no domestic production is possible). We review the literature, and argue that the policy equilibrium is inefficient. This inefficiency is exacerbated by market failure in long run contracts for exploration and development of natural resources. Properly coordinated policy reforms offer an avenue to resource exporting and importing countries to overcome these inefficiencies and obtain mutual gains.
    Keywords: F1 ; F13 ; Q3 ; ddc:330 ; natural resources ; trade ; export tax ; tariff escalation ; OPEC ; WTO ; terms of trade ; Natürliche Ressourcen ; Rohstoffpolitik ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Exportsteuer ; Zollpolitik ; Terms of Trade ; Allokationseffizienz ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper aims to understand how corruption responds to an income loss. We exploit an unexpected 25% wage cut incurred in 2010 by all Romanian public sector employees, including the public education staff. We investigate a corruptible high-stake exam taking place shortly after the wage announcement. To measure corruption we compare changes in exam outcomes from 2009 to 2010 between public and private schools, as the latter were not affected by the policy. We find that the wage loss induced better exam outcomes in public than in private schools and we attribute this difference to increased corruption by public educators.
    Keywords: I20 ; H70 ; J30 ; ddc:330 ; public educators ; bribes ; high-stakes exam ; Korruption ; Lehrkräfte ; Besoldung ; Bildungsniveau ; Vergleich ; Privatschule ; Schätzung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We experimentally investigate the nature of cooperation in various repeated games, with subjects from Romania and USA. We find stark cross-country differences in the propensity to sustain multilateral cooperation through bilateral rewards and punishments. U.S. groups perform well because sufficiently many cooperators are willing to discipline free riders. Romanian cooperators are less prone to jeopardize their productive bilateral relationships for the benefit of the group, collectively failing to provide adequate discipline. Our analysis indicates that the performance differences constitute a group-level phenomenon, being largely due differences in shared beliefs rather than differences in individuals' preferences.
    Keywords: D02 ; D03 ; ddc:330 ; Kulturelle Identität ; Social Capital ; Kooperation ; Wiederholte Spiele ; Test ; Vergleich ; Rumänien ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 30
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    Istanbul: Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum (ERF)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: Recent research indicates that the democratic peace - the observation that democratic nations rarely fight each other - is spurious: that advanced capitalism accounts for both democracy and the democratic peace (Mousseau 2009). This is not a trivial prospect: if economic conditions explain the democratic peace, then a great deal of research on governing institutions and foreign policy is probably obsolete. This study addresses all the recent defenses of the democratic peace and reports new results using a new measure that directly gauges the causal mechanism of contract flows dependent on third-party enforcement. Analyses of most nations from 1961 to 2001 show contract-intensive "impersonal" economy to be the second most powerful variable in international conflict - following only contiguity - and, once considered, there is no evidence of causation from democracy to peace. It is impersonal economy, not democracy or unfettered markets, which appears to explain the democratic peace.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Politischer Konflikt ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Demokratie ; Systemvergleich ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 31
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2014-12-18
    Description: In the absence of effective world-wide cooperation to curb global warming, import tariffs on embodied carbon have been proposed as a potential supplement to unilateral emissions pricing. We consider alternative designs for such tariffs, and analyze their effects on global welfare within a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade and energy. Our analysis suggests that the most cost-efficient policy could be region-specific tariffs on all products, based on direct plus electricity emissions. In the end, however, the potential cost savings through carbon tariffs must be weighed against the administrative costs as well as legal issues and political considerations.
    Keywords: Q43 ; Q54 ; H2 ; D61 ; ddc:330 ; carbon leakage ; embodied carbon ; border tariffs ; Umweltbelastung ; Treibhausgas ; Treibhausgas-Emissionen ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Zoll ; Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse
    Language: English
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  • 32
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    Heidelberg: Springer
    Publication Date: 2014-03-12
    Description: Industrial decline and restructuring in the transition economies presents a prime example of the relationship between changes in aggregate economic indicators and underlying microeconomic adjustments. This paper employs matched labor force survey data to focus on the magnitude and determinants of the labor market flows associated with the fall in industrial employment in Romania from 1993 to 1995. The data show not only a large drop in aggregate industry employment, but also a decline in each of the disaggregated two-digit sectors. Nonetheless, there are substantial gross flows in both directions, again with significant heterogeneity across sectors. Workers leaving jobs in industry have a variety of destinations: jobs in other industrial sectors, in agriculture, and in services, as well as unemployment and non-participation in the labor force; the data show all of these paths to be significant. Multinomial logit estimates indicate that the probability of paths is affected by both individual and firm characteristics. Among other results, university and general high school education tend to raise the probability of job-to-job flows, particularly from industrial jobs to other industrial jobs and to service sectors, but not to agriculture. Workers with primary and vocational education have the highest probability of becoming unemployed and the lowest probability of finding new jobs in services (less than a third the probability for those with university education). Compared with workers in state-owned companies, workers from the private sector, especially from enterprises of mixed ownership have a greater probability of exiting their industry, as well as higher probabilities of finding jobs in services. The largest outflows, however, concern workers from industrial cooperatives, most of whom become unemployed. The data present a mixed picture of social dislocation and improved reallocation.
    Keywords: J21 ; J23 ; J24 ; J26 ; J60 ; J68 ; O12 ; P31 ; ddc:330 ; unemployment ; sectoral shifts ; reallocation ; labor force status ; labor force surveys ; Romania ; Fertigungsberufe ; Deindustrialisierung ; Beschäftigungseffekt ; Arbeitsmobilität ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 33
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    La Plata: Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales (CEDLAS)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-18
    Description: El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar el potencial sesgo pro-pobre en la actual estructura de protección en seis países de África Sub-Sahariana (ASS), es decir, si redistribuye ingresos de los hogares ricos a los pobres. También exploramos la medida en que las barreras que enfrentan los exportadores de la ASS en el resto del mundo están sesgadas a favor de los hogares pobres o ricos. Para ello, partimos de un modelo simple de producción agrícola familiar y proponemos una ampliación para incluir los ajustes en los ingresos laborales asociados con cambios en los salarios de trabajadores calificados y no calificados. A continuación, creamos indicadores que reflejan las diferencias en los cambios en el bienestar a través de los niveles de ingresos asociados con la eliminación de las medidas proteccionistas en ASS. Los resultados sugieren que la propia política comercial de ASS se inclina a favor de los hogares pobres. Por el contrario, las políticas comerciales de los socios comerciales de ASS tienden a estar sesgadas a favor de los hogares ricos de ASS.
    Description: The objective of this paper is to estimate the potential pro-poor bias in the existing structure of protection in six Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries (i.e., whether it redistributes income from rich to poor households). We also explore the extent to which the barriers faced by SSA exporters in the rest-of-the-world are biased in favor of poor or rich household. To this end, we start with a simple agricultural household production model and propose an extension to include adjustments in labor income associated with changes in unskilled and skilled wages. We then build indicators that capture the differences in welfare changes across income levels associated with the elimination of SSA's own trade protection, as well as trade protection on SSA's export bundle by the rest-of-the-world. Results suggest that SSA's own trade policy is biased in favor of poor households. In contrast, the trade policies of SSA's trading partners tend to be biased in favor of SSA's rich households, especially when ad-valorem equivalents of NTMs are taken into account. -- Trade policy ; wage elasticities ; poverty ; Sub-Saharan Africa
    Keywords: F13 ; F16 ; ddc:330 ; Trade policy ; wage elasticities ; poverty ; Sub-Saharan Africa ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Protektionismus ; Armutsbekämpfung ; Umverteilung ; Subsahara-Afrika
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    Mannheim: Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    Publication Date: 2013-05-22
    Description: We trace back Romania's development to a low-tax country among the Member States of the European Union by analysing the major tax law changes in corporate taxation since 1992. We find that the significant reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 45% in 1992 to 16% since 2005 has not been accompanied by a comprehensive broadening of the corporate income tax base as prevalent in many longstanding Member States of the EU and the OECD. Our analysis is not limited to a comprehensive description of the development of corporate taxation in Romania, but goes on with a numerical analysis of the tax burdens at different periods of time which constitute milestones in the development of corporate taxation in Romania. For this purpose, we apply the European Tax Analyzer, which is a computer-based model firm approach. We find that the average company tax burden of the underlying model company has dropped significantly by almost 65% since 1992. Furthermore, our numerical analysis does not confirm the tax base broadening policy. As a result, Romania holds position two among the group of Central and Eastern European EU Member States.
    Keywords: H22 ; H25 ; O38 ; ddc:330 ; corporate taxation ; effective tax burden ; transition economy ; EU accession countries ; tax reform ; tax-rate-cum-base-broadening reform ; Unternehmensbesteuerung ; Steuerreform ; Steuerwirkung ; Steuerbelastung ; Übergangswirtschaft ; EU-Erweiterung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selection of recent Romanian migrants and returnees. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skill-specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. Once we account for migration costs, we find evidence that the selection and sorting of migrants by skills is driven by different returns in countries of destination. We also find that the return premium increases with migrants' skills and this drives the positive selection of returnees relative to non-migrants. As these findings are consistent with a model of rational choice in the migration decisions, we simulate a rational-agent model of education, migration and return. Our results suggest that for a source country like Romania relatively high rates of temporary migration might have positive long-run effects on average skills and wages.
    Keywords: F22 ; J61 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; selection of migrants ; migration premium ; returnees ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Migranten ; Qualifikation ; Lohn ; Rückwanderung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: Over the last decade, the internal and external macroeconomic imbalances in China have risen to unprecedented levels. In 2008, China's national savings rate soared to over 53 percent of its GDP, whereas its current account surplus exceeded 9 percent of GDP. The current paper presents a unified framework for understanding the structural causes of these imbalances. I argue that the imbalances are attributable to a set of policies and institutions embedded in the economy. Moreover, the accession of China to the World Trade Organization has dramatically amplified the effects of these structural distortions. I document major trends in aggregate savings, investment, trade, and net foreign asset positions in China, and explore options for policy reforms aimed at rebalancing the Chinese economy.
    Keywords: E21 ; O16 ; F32 ; ddc:330 ; aggregate savings ; current account ; income distribution ; structural distortions ; trade policies ; China ; Sparen ; Leistungsbilanz ; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht ; Einkommensverteilung ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; China
    Language: English
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  • 37
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    Bonn: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-15
    Description: This paper aims to understand how corruption responds to financial incentives and, in particular, it is an attempt to identify the causal impact of a wage loss on the prevalence of corruption in the education sector. Specifically, we exploit the unexpected wage cut in May 2010 that affected all Romanian public sector employees, including the public education staff, and examine its effect on students' scores on the high-stakes national exam which occurs at the end of high school - the Baccalaureate. To exploit the effect of an income shock on corruption, we use a difference-in-difference strategy and compare the change in the exam outcomes between the public schools - the treatment group - and the private schools - the control group, which were unaffected by the wage cut. Our findings suggest that the wage loss led the public schools to have better exam outcomes than the private schools in 2010 relative to 2009. We attribute this difference to the increased involvement in corrupt activities by public school staff, which was driven by financial incentives. These results match an unprecedentedly high number of allegations of fraud and bribery against school principals, which earned the 2010 Baccalaureate the title of the Xeroxed exam - akin to identical test answers found to have been distributed to numerous students.
    Keywords: I2 ; H7 ; J3 ; ddc:330 ; school principals ; bribes ; high-stakes tests ; Korruption ; Lehrkräfte ; Besoldung ; Bildungsniveau ; Vergleich ; Privatschule ; Schätzung ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    Vienna: Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-26
    Description: Over the past three decades the global economy has witnessed the rise of organizationally fragmented and geographically dispersed global production networks (GPNs). An increasing amount of literature drawing on chain and network conceptualizations has accumulated on how these changes affect countries, regions and firms. Comparatively little has, however, been said about the effects on workers and their roles in GPNs. Although the expansion of global production arrangements has been an important source of employment generation in many developing and transition countries, this quantitative assessment reveals little about the qualitative aspects of work nor about the sustainability of these jobs. This paper assesses how integration into GPNs in the increasingly important fast fashion apparel segment, that is based on increased variety and fashionability and on permanently shrinking product life cycles, is impacting on workers and social upgrading. It particularly assesses whether the sourcing practices related to fast fashion, such as short lead times, high flexibility, speed of production, low costs and high quality, create additional hurdles for workers to achieve social upgrading. The focus is on the apparel industry in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Euro-Mediterranean Rim ("Greater Europe") with case studies on Morocco and Romania due to their importance as regional and fast fashion suppliers to Western European buyers.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Arbeitsteilung ; Arbeitsbedingungen ; Soziale Folgen ; Bekleidungsindustrie ; Marokko ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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  • 39
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    Heidelberg: Springer
    Publication Date: 2018-09-05
    Description: The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has a long history of intellectual independence. This article details how Western countries tried to marginalise the organisation and its work - which is often critical of Western powers - during the 2012 UNCTAD conference. While developing countries were able to mobilise and partially beat back these attempts for now, the organisation's ability to contribute to global macroeconomics remains under threat.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Entwicklungsorganisation ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Industriestaaten ; Entwicklungshilfe ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 40
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    Brussels: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: This paper interprets China's overall trade policy since its accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) almost a decade ago, and more recently in the wake of the global economic crisis. The first section briefly summarises policy trends leading up to WTO accession, as well as recent trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) patterns. The second section looks at China in the WTO: its record of implementing WTO commitments; its participation in the Doha Round; and in dispute settlement. The next section looks at China's trade-related reforms outside the WTO, especially unilateral measures and preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Section Four highlights challenges for China's trade policy: in the context of domestic reforms; in the WTO; in PTAs; in its key bilateral relationships; and in the context of global macroeconomic tensions. Section Five puts Chinese trade policy in a bigger domestic political-economy and geopolitical context. Section Six concludes. (...)
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; WTO-Mitgliedschaft ; China
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Zurich: ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute
    Publication Date: 2018-06-26
    Description: This paper investigates the R&D persistence of R&D active firms in different markets with different intensities of competition, based on firm-level panel data for the period 1996-2008. In a dynamic setting of the empirical model it turns out that persistence is strongly related to market competition (measured by the number of principal competitors). Persistence of R&D expenditures is more likely to be observed in markets with few principal competitors (between 6 and 10) and is very unlikely to be observed in polypolistic type of markets (more than 50 competitors). These results call for a stronger coordination between competition policy and innovation promotion policy, since the former basically aims at larger markets with many competitors, while the latter aims at persistence of R&D efforts and thus markets with fewer competitors.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Konjunkturzusammenhang ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Innovationspolitik ; Schweiz
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Nürnberg: Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-26
    Description: This paper explores the role of country asymmetries for trade and industrial policies with heterogeneous firms. Our analysis delivers a number of novel results. First, trade policies, infrastructure policies and industrial policies which improve the business conditions in one country have negative productivity and welfare effects on the trading partner. Second, symmetric trade liberalization is immiserizing for a trading partner whose business conditions are inferior. Third, there are gains from trade even for a country whose monopolistically competitive sector with heterogeneous firms is wiped out by the switch from autarky to trade.
    Keywords: F12 ; F13 ; F15 ; L25 ; ddc:330 ; firm heterogeneity ; welfare ; trade policies ; industrial policies ; business conditions ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Industriepolitik ; Standortpolitik ; Mehr-Länder-Modell ; Produktivität ; Wohlfahrtsanalyse ; Außenhandelsliberalisierung ; Außenhandelseffekt ; Theorie
    Language: English
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  • 43
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: The objective of the paper is to explore and give an overview of two central policy alternatives to improve the integration between the European Union and developing countries by removing barriers to trade: trade preferences and trade facilitation. After reviewing the relevant literatures and discussing the issues which constitute problems or opportunities for practitioners and researchers in both areas, the paper concludes that while at least some trade preferences actually have been less of a failure than their reputation suggests, trade facilitation is a far more promising policy option for the future.
    Keywords: F10 ; F13 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; Trade preferences ; Trade Facilitation ; European Union ; Developing Countries ; Außenhandelsliberalisierung ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Internationale Handelspolitik ; Außenhandelseffekt ; Außenhandelspräferenz ; Außenhandelsgewinn ; Handelsabkommen ; Entwicklungsländer ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 44
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2014-12-18
    Description: In a world where the prospects of a global agreement to control greenhouse gas emissions are bleak, the idea of using trade policy as an implicit regulation of foreign emission sources has gained many supporters in countries contemplating unilateral climate policies. Embodied carbon tariffs tax the direct and indirect carbon emissions embodied in imported goods. The appeal seems obvious: as OECD countries are, on average, large net importers of embodied emissions from non-OECD countries, carbon tariffs could substantially extend the reach of OECD climate policies. We investigate this claim by simulating the effects of embodied carbon tariffs with a computable general equilibrium model of global trade and energy use. We find that embodied carbon tariffs do effectively reduce carbon leakage. However, the scope for improvements in the global cost-effectiveness of unilateral climate policy is limited. The main welfare effect of the tariffs is to shift the burden of OECD climate policy to the developing world.
    Keywords: F18 ; H23 ; Q54 ; Q56 ; ddc:330 ; Umweltbelastung ; Treibhausgas ; Treibhausgas-Emissionen ; Ökosteuer ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Zoll ; Wohlfahrtsanalyse ; Allgemeines Gleichgewicht ; OECD-Staaten ; Entwicklungsländer
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-07
    Description: This paper explores the ways in which macroeconomic imbalances have driven policy discussions between the United States (US) and People's Republic of China (PRC) in the last decade. The PRC's current account surplus, its growing foreign exchange reserves, and its shifting policies on exchange rate adjustment have become a central preoccupation of US trade policy. The paper considers the evolving political economy of the US policy stance and of the PRC's response; it assesses the opportunity costs of an approach that has sometimes focused on the exchange rate to the exclusion of other issues; and it explores the ramifications for economic governance in the short- and medium-run. The paper finds that there has been ample mutual misunderstanding between the US and the PRC in their economic arguments; that the momentous debates have the potential to severely impair the institutions of global economic governance; and that there is likely to be an important race between economic and demographic forces that will naturally redress the imbalances and the political imperatives for each country to stand tough and fight.
    Keywords: F42 ; F51 ; ddc:330 ; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht ; Währungsreserven ; Wechselkurspolitik ; China ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    Hamburg: German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
    Publication Date: 2018-10-10
    Description: In the course of the last decade, the IBSA states (India, Brazil, South Africa) have increased their weight in the shifting global order, particularly in economic affairs. Can the same be said about the IBSA states' position in the international security hierarchy? After locating the IBSA coalition in the shifting world order, we analyze its member states' willingness and capacity to coordinate their security policies and build a common global security agenda. In addition, we explore the state of and perspectives on bi- and trilateral collaboration initiatives on defense and armaments between India, Brazil and South Africa. A key reason for the mostly modest results of global security agenda coordination and cross-regional defense collaboration is that the prevailing security concerns of each country are located at the regional level. Therefore, the starting point of an assessment of the prospects of IBSA's security cooperation and its potential impact on the strategic global landscape has to be a comparative evaluation of the regional security environments, focusing on overlaps and potential synergies between the national security policies of the three state actors.
    Description: Im Verlauf der letzten Dekade konnten die IBSA-Staaten (Indien, Brasilien, Südafrika) ihre Position in der sich verschiebenden Weltordnung erheblich verbessern; das gilt insbesondere für ihren Einfluss auf globale Handelsfragen. Lässt sich ein ähnlicher Aufstieg der IBSA-Staaten in der internationalen Sicherheitsordnung konstatieren? Die Autoren verorten die IBSA-Koalition in der sich verschiebenden Weltordnung und analysieren die Bereitschaft und Fähigkeit der drei Staaten, ihre Sicherheitsstrategien zu koordinieren und eine gemeinsame Sicherheitsagenda zu entwerfen. Ferner werden die Bedingungen und Perspektiven biund trilateraler Verteidigungs- und Rüstungszusammenarbeit untersucht. Im Ergebnis zeichnen sich bisher allenfalls anfängliche Bemühungen bei der Zusammenarbeit im Verteidigungssektor und bei der Entwicklung einer globalen Sicherheitsagenda ab. Ausschlaggebend dafür sind die primär auf der regionalen Ebene liegenden Sicherheitsprioritäten der IBSA-Staaten. Die perspektivische Bewertung des potenziellen Einflusses der Staatenkoalition auf globale Sicherheitsfragen erfolgt demnach vor dem Hintergrund der regionalen Sicherheitsstrategien Indiens, Brasiliens und Südafrikas. Dabei stehen mögliche Überschneidungen und Synergien zwischen den regionalen Sicherheitsstrategien im Zentrum des Interesses.
    Keywords: ddc:300 ; India ; Brazil ; South Africa ; IBSA Dialogue Forum ; security policies ; security context ; military power ; Politischer Konflikt ; Bündnissystem ; Großmacht ; Militärpotenzial ; Internationale Beziehungen ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Indien ; Brasilien ; Südafrika
    Language: English
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    Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-07
    Description: Asia is fast becoming the largest recipient of Japan's foreign direct investment (FDI). Within the Asian region, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been the major investment destination of Japan. In the manufacturing sectors, however, the investment flows from Japan to ASEAN - with Thailand being the largest recipient - has been declining. In contrast, Japan's FDI in the services sectors in ASEAN has been growing rapidly. The recent phenomenon of the Singapore Shift in Japan's FDI in the ASEAN services sectors proves interesting. The prominent strategy of Japanese companies is to establish a commercial presence in Singapore, which they expect to be the hub of Southeast Asia, thereby enabling them to supply services to the entire ASEAN region. The magnitude of the Singapore Shift varies for every services sub-sector. By comparing transport and logistics with finance and insurance industries, this paper considers the critical determinants of the Singapore Shift.
    Keywords: F2 ; F13 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Direktinvestition ; Japan ; Singapur ; ASEAN-Staaten
    Language: English
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    Budapest: Magyar Nemzeti Bank
    Publication Date: 2013-10-09
    Description: This paper investigates the forecasting ability of survey data on exchange rate expectations with multiple forecast horizons. The survey forecasts are on the exchange rates of five Central and Eastern European currencies: Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Romanian Leu and Slovakian Koruna. First, different term-structure models are fitted on the survey forecasts. Then, the forecasting performances of the fitted forecasts are compared. The fitted forecasts for the 5 months horizon and beyond are proved to be significantly better than the random walk on the pooled data of the five currencies. The best performing term-structure model is the one that assumes an exponential relationship between the forecast and the forecast horizon, and has time-varying parameters.
    Keywords: F31 ; F36 ; G13 ; ddc:330 ; evaluating forecasts ; exchange rate ; survey forecast ; time-varying parameter ; term-structure of forecasts ; Wechselkurs ; Prognoseverfahren ; Zinsstruktur ; Random Walk ; Schätzung ; Tschechische Republik ; Ungarn ; Polen ; Slowakei ; Rumänien
    Language: English
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    Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-07
    Description: Adverse effects of the global financial crisis on international trade include falling demand, increased trade protectionism, and drying up of trade finance. Much attention has focused on the impact of the crisis on goods trade; however literature on its impact on services trade is limited, especially on the services trade in the People's Republic of China (PRC). This paper analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on the PRC's services trade, discusses policy responses by the government, and puts forward policy suggestions. The main findings of the paper are as follows: Although the global economic and financial crisis spawned a synchronized recession leading to a contraction in the PRC's services trade, the crisis has had a moderate effect on the PRC's trade in services because of the lower internationalization of services. The PRC's trade surplus in goods decreased and its trade deficit in services increased after the crisis. Structural reforms are now urgently needed to help support the recovery of output and trade. A possible solution to rebalancing the trade balance (trade surplus in goods and trade deficit in services) would be to expand trade in services. The degree of openness for services is lower than for goods in the PRC. Further liberalization in services trade is the appropriate policy choice for the government. Continued policy and regulatory reform in favor of services trade will be vital to supporting economic recovery. Improved market access and national treatment of foreign service suppliers would help enhance the productivity and competitiveness of local services firms and upgrade the industry structure of services, which is essential for the country's economy to change from being driven by exports to being driven by domestic demand. Decreasing trade and investment barriers would help expand services trade and investment, and increase PRC involvement in the globalization of services.
    Keywords: F13 ; F14 ; ddc:330 ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Internationaler Dienstleistungsverkehr ; Außenhandelseffekt ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; China
    Language: English
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    Manila: Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) up to 2030 against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modelling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next 2 decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Außenhandelsstruktur ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Handelseffekt ; Asien
    Language: English
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    Marburg: Philipps-University Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
    Publication Date: 2020-02-17
    Description: This paper characterizes, under the most general conditions to date, the steady-state equilibria of a symmetric, two-country trade model in which countries move in alternating-move, dynamic either tariffsetting or quota-setting games in Markov Perfect strategies, and compares the respective equilibrium level of tariffs and quotas with the corresponding pairs in the equilibria of static games. Our results imply that the alleged non-equivalence of the outcomes of tariff-retaliation (neither free trade nor autarky) and quota-retaliation (asymptotic autarky) games in the literature depends crucially on complete myopia, and can be dismissed altogether once dynamic considerations are introduced in an operationally significant manner.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; foreign trade policy ; tariff ; quota ; retaliation ; dynamic game ; Markov perfect equilibrium ; supermodular games ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Zollpolitik ; Außenhandelskontingent ; Dynamisches Spiel ; Markovscher Prozess ; Gleichgewicht ; Theorie
    Language: English
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-05-13
    Description: The present paper intends to examine the evolution of the European idea in inter-war Romania. On this occasion, I try to have a synthetic presentation of Romanian currents and intellectual evolutions, a history of that idea in inter-war political and intellectual environments. Romanian élites prove to be connected to the evolutions at the European level, offering solutions and professionally commenting the proposals presented. The Romanian conception on the united Europe remarks itself through the great importance given to the political factor - the European states should be united, equal and have the frontiers guaranteed. We have a qualitative evolution that starts with the idea of regional associations culminating with the idea of a united Europe based upon the proposal of Aristide Briand. By the end of the 1930s and mid-40s, the accent is set upon the idea of a European Economic Community, partially based upon the German ideas of World War II.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; history of the idea of Europe ; inter-war period ; European Union ; extremism ; political thinking ; communism ; social-democracy ; Europäische Integration ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; Ideologie ; Rumänien
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Brussels: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: This Policy Brief aims at examining Ukraine's economic woes and what it needs to do to improve economic performance. At the centre of the Brief are the effects on Ukraine of the economic crisis and the policy programme devised to improve economic performance. The crisis hit Ukraine hard and Gross Domestic Product fell by 15 percent in 2009. The economy is now recovering, but economic growth will not return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon. Ukraine went through a classic emerging-market crisis - it was too dependent on export of steel and metals, and it was too exposed to adverse development on international credit markets. The reform agenda set out by the new Ukrainian government is ambitious. If the government delivers on its promises - and obligations to the International Monetary Fund - economic policy will move in a liberal direction and economic growth is likely to pick up. There are hesitations about the ability to push through all reforms, but the Ukrainian government has been forced to tie itself to the IMF mast and should make full use of this opportunity to liberalize economic policy and modernize the economy. There are also hesitations based on President Yanukovych and his political orientation towards Russia. Sceptics may or may not be proven right - it is too soon to tell. What seems clear, however, is that Ukraine favours a much more pragmatic approach to its neighbors in the east and the west. It is not difficult to understand why. Ukraine's relations to Russia had to improve and as long as the EU does not wish to start the process for full accession, Ukraine needs to find its own way and build a reform and future agenda on other foundations.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzkrise ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Wirtschaftsreform ; Politische Reform ; Ukraine
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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    Brussels: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
    Publication Date: 2018-02-15
    Description: The Treaty of Lisbon will introduce a number of changes to European Union (EU) external trade policy decision making. These involve the scope of exclusive competence of the EU, the role of the European Parliament and the inclusion of trade in the common external action of the EU. This article discusses these changes but also provides an initial assessment of how the Treaty of Lisbon (ToL) might affect the role of the EU as an actor in international trade. After an introduction to the attributes of "an actor" in international trade the article then summarises the main changes the ToL will bring about before discussing their likely ramifications. It argues that the ToL can be expected to strengthen the EU as a trade actor in a number of respects and that these should, to some degree, compensate for the relative decline in EU market power due to systemic changes in the international trading system.
    Keywords: F13 ; F55 ; F59 ; ddc:330 ; European Union ; Trade Policy ; Lisbon Treaty ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Internationale Handelspolitik ; Verfassung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: We argue that monetary policies in euro-candidate countries should also aim at mitigating excessive instability of the key target and instrument variables of monetary policy during turbulent market periods. Our empirical tests show a significant degree of leptokurtosis, thus prevalence of tail-risks, in the conditional volatility series of such variables in the euro-candidate countries. Their central banks will be well-advised to use both standard and unorthodox (discretionary) tools of monetary policy to mitigate such extreme risks while steering their economies out of the crisis and through the euroconvergence process. Such policies provide flexibility that is not embedded in the Taylor-type instrument rules, or in the Maastricht convergence criteria.
    Description: Wir argumentieren, dass die Geldpolitik in den Euro-Kandidatenländern darauf abzielen sollte, die exzessive Instabilität in den zentralen Ziel- und Instrumentenvariablen der Geldpolitik zu mildern, insbesondere in Phasen turbulenter Finanzmärkte. Die empirischen Tests der Studie decken einen erheblichen Grad an Leptokurtosis auf, d. h. die Dominanz von so genannten Tail-Risks in den bedingten Volatilitätsserien der monetären Variablen in den Euro-Kandidatenländern. Ihre Zentralbanken wären daher gut beraten, neben den üblichen Instrumenten der Geldpolitik auch unorthodoxe Maßnahmen der Geldpolitik anzuwenden, wenn sie die Länder aus der Krise herausführen und danach auf die Übernahme des Euro vorbereiten. Damit erhielte die Geldpolitik jene Flexibilität, die ihr bei der Anwendung von Instrumentenregeln á la Taylor oder der Maastricht-Kriterien fehlt.
    Keywords: E44 ; F31 ; G15 ; P34 ; ddc:330 ; monetary policy rules ; tail-risks ; convergence to the euro ; global financial crisis ; equity market risk ; interest rate risk ; exchange rate risk ; Regeln der Geldpolitik ; Tail-Risks ; Euro-Konvergenz ; weltweite Finanzkrise ; Vermögensrisiko ; Zinsrisiko ; Wechselkursrisiko ; Geldpolitik ; Monetärer Indikator ; Volatilität ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Zinsrisiko ; Wechselkursrisiko ; Konvergenzkriterien ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; EU-Erweiterung ; Tschechische Republik ; Polen ; Ungarn ; Rumänien ; Slowakei
    Language: English
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    New Delhi: Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
    Publication Date: 2018-03-22
    Description: Sports retail is a small but fast growing segment of modern retail in India. Recently, the country has been hosting many international sports and this has given a boost to this sector. Many foreign and domestic corporate retailers have entered sports retail. Sports goods manufacturing is a focus area in the Foreign Trade Policy (2009-2014) and the government is taking a fresh look at the current foreign direct investment policy in retail. In the above context, this paper provides an overview of the sports retail sector in India. Specifically, it presents the different retail formats, consumer profile, retailers' supply chain and sourcing. It also examines the retail and sports policies and their implications for this segment of retail, analyses the barriers faced by this sector and suggests policy reforms. The study found that the policy of allowing 51 per cent FDI in the single-brand format has not benefited this sector. The FDI ban on multi-brand retail is not an entry barrier since foreign retailers can establish their presence in India through other routes. The study found that since this is a niche segment of retail, FDI would not have an adverse impact on traditional retailers. It concludes that government should allow 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand sports retail. This will increase sourcing from India, lead to diffusion of technology, proliferation of brands, investment in sports and sports promotion, among others.
    Keywords: C83 ; L67 ; L81 ; L83 ; L88 ; ddc:330 ; Retail ; sports ; government policy ; trade ; consumer survey ; Sportartikel ; Sportbekleidung ; Außenhandel ; Auslandsinvestition ; Außenwirtschaftspolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Indien
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper