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  • 1
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The ICT Household Survey aims to collect data on information and communication technologies (ICT) access and use in Brazil. We use this research to elaborate two exercises. The first one applies logistic regression to determine the factors responsible for connecting a domicile to the Internet. The second one estimates a demand model for the Internet applying a multinomial model of discrete choice. The model contemplates four types of connection: DSL with fixed telephone line, TV cable or fiber optic and mobile via modem or 3G and 4G chip. In the case of logistic regression, we verified that socioeconomic variables such as schooling, income and social class are factors that influence whether the household is connected or not. We verified that the higher the level of schooling or income, the greater the effect on the probability of the household be connecting to the Internet. We observe that there is no defined pattern concern to the effect of a variable on the probability of choosing a type of connection. Thus, each variable responds differently depending on each type of connection. This study is the first attempt with disaggregated data of estimation of Internet demand for Brazil. Although it contains certain weaknesses due to the limitations of the database, it is still a valid exercise insofar as it suggests important indications for the construction of a more reliable database for the supporting studies of Internet demand in Brazil.
    Keywords: L51 ; L96 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; internet demand ; logistic regression ; type of connection ; multinomial model
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 2
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Based on a state policy perspective, this paper presents the path of Brazil's participation in U.N. peace operations, from its genesis in 1947 to the present day, with the intent to comprehend if there is in fact a progressive and evolutionary pattern in the participation of Brazil in peacekeeping, and which would be the challenges, contributions and future orientations to the country in this matter. For that, in a first moment, the text will bring a conceptual discussion regarding the different definitions and understandings on peacekeeping operations. Subsequently, we will analyze the evolution of UN peacekeeping operations throughout its 70 years and the Brazilian positions during this period. In a third moment, we will present the final considerations identifying the upcoming challenges and the main possible perspectives for Brazil to engage in future peacekeeping operations. The intention, therefore, is to ascertain whether peacekeeping operations, as an instrument of international policy aligned to the guidelines of Brazilian defense policy and foreign policy, should continue to be supported by Brazil or if new reorientations are necessary as a national strategy.
    Keywords: F02 ; F51 ; F52 ; ddc:330 ; peace operations ; Brazil ; United Nations ; MINUSTAH ; UNIFIL ; peacekeeping
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 3
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The objective of the present study is to estimate the factors that influencing global agricultural production, as well as to assess the technical efficiency of countries, taking account the context of climate change. The problem is: are countries that seek productive solutions to increase productivity and competitiveness the most efficient in a sustainable production logic? It is believed that the countries that increased the most production were those that intensified the emission of GHG (Greenhouse Gases), which leads to associate the false interpretation that growing countries pollute more. The hypothesis to be tested, therefore, is: the countries that grew the most (or increased production) were those that used the most technology that sequesters carbon, increasing its technical efficiency. To do this, a Stochastic Frontier model was used, based on the 1992-2014 data from 118 countries, available from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the World Bank and the Food Agriculture Organization (FAO). The study show that sustainable solutions in agricultural production, which increase the capacity of CO2 capture by soil, imply an increase in productive efficiency and that these measures are not fully disseminated worldwide, only in countries listed as more technically efficient.
    Keywords: Q1 ; D24 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; agriculture ; production ; climate change
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 4
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Eradicating poverty is the first of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Objectives (ODS) for 2030. The Bolsa Família Program (BFP) is one of the main Brazilian initiatives in this regard, not only for the benefit paid to poor families, but also for promoting their prioritization for health, education and social assistance policies. The purpose of this paper is precisely to understand how these policies have been organized to serve the public PBF. In order to do so, we analyze the management of Bolsa Familia conditionalities within decentralized systems of education, health and social assistance, focusing on mobilized coordination mechanisms and consequent changes in the functioning of the policy to reach this public. It can be verified that the PBF has been able to enter the protocols, pacts and federative commitments of each articulated system, being, however, little debated in the respective structures of coordination. The program is also supported by financial incentives from the three policies, as well as mobilizing networks of managers at the three levels of government for their implementation in the areas of education and health. In addition, it has been producing changes in the way these policies work with the poorest public, through active search for specific offer and monitoring of the access of its beneficiaries. However, the results show that health policies, and especially social assistance policies, have yet to improve their mechanisms to broaden the coverage of the program's public supply and monitoring. In addition, the systematic use of the results of conditionalities management - understood as a diagnosis of the failures in the supply and monitoring processes - remains to be explored, in order to qualify the definition of intersectoral flows and protocols on how to act in the face of the situations encountered.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330 ; Bolsa Família ; federal coordination ; articulation between services ; benefits
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 5
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Health is an important area of activity of the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea), whose purpose is to promote and carry out research and social and economic studies, as well as disseminate the resulting knowledge, offering society solutions to the challenges of economic and social Brazilian development. In the perspective of the relation between health and development, the objective of this text is to analyze the contributions of Ipea to the promotion of national socioeconomic development, through its production in health from 1982 to 2018. A descriptive and relational bibliometric study was carried out, in order to describe this production and to identify the relationships between the various subjects treated in the documents produced that are of interest to the Health Sciences (human health), with or without interfaces with other areas of knowledge. The analysis of the mapped material was done with the support of the software Iramuteq (Interface de R pour les Analyses Multidimensionneles de Textes et de Questionnaires), version 0.7 alpha 2, for treatment of the qualitative data related to the document subject descriptors. From the Descending Hierarchical Classification (CHD), which considered 349 texts (77.7% of the textual corpus), three categories of subjects were obtained which, in general terms, refer to the following topics dealt with in this production:: i) financing of Brazilian public health care system (SUS), health expenditures and government regulation; ii) resource allocation and health management; and iii) inequalities in health levels, inequalities in the access to health services, and social participation. It is concluded that the Institute's researchers have produced knowledge and provided relevant information on aspects related to population health and the health sector that impact development factors, especially in identifying problems, monitoring and evaluating public policies and programs. In addition, that it is possible to enhance this contribution in the health area, with the active participation of its staff in the proposals elaboration, policies formulation and in the medium and long term governmental planning.
    Keywords: I15 ; ddc:330 ; bibliometric ; research ; health care sector ; health status ; health economics ; socioeconomic development
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 6
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The present study aims to investigate the transformations in industrial activity in three states of the Southeast region (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais), the significant nucleus of Brazilian industry, between 1996 and 2015, with a focus on change structural and territorial reorganization. By means of the descriptive statistics of a set of indicators, according to the predominant competitive factor of the industrial activity, it was possible to verify that, in general lines, the region did not show retrocession in the industrial activity, since, there was no decrease in absolute terms of the production and/or industrial employment. But, the low growth rates of the industry in the region; structural change with the expansion of traditional industry, to the detriment of the scale-intensive industry; and the reduction of productive densities - with the exception of activities based on natural resources - signalize harmful aspects of their dynamics. Within the territorial scope, deconcentration is notorious in all sectoral categories analyzed, even in a context of semi-stagnation of industry.
    Keywords: L60 ; O14 ; R11 ; ddc:330 ; regional development ; structural change ; regional deconcentration
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 7
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The goal of the study is to evaluate the targeting of the Bolsa Família Programme and its impacts on the reduction of poverty and inequality. To that end, we have used data from the 2001-2015 standard National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD) and from the 2016 and the 2017 longitudinal PNAD. The results support the findings of previous studies. Bolsa Família is by far the most progressive transfer ever enacted by the federal government. Its excellent targeting explains why, despite its small budget (0.5 per cent of GDP) and its limited representation in household income as reflected by PNAD (0.7 per cent), the programme has such a significant impact on poverty reduction: its transfers reduce poverty by 15 per cent and extreme poverty by 25 per cent. Dynamic decompositions of the Gini coefficient suggest that the programme was responsible for the 10 per cent of the reduction in inequality between 2001 and 2015. From 2001 to 2006 (the period during which the programme grew most significantly), Bolsa Família accounted for almost 17 per cent of the observed reduction in inequality. Findings suggest that the targeting of the Programme is already very good and that the main restraining factor of the Programme's impact on poverty is not targeting, but rather the low value of the transfers.
    Keywords: D31 ; D78 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; poverty ; inequality ; redistribution ; cash transfers
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 8
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The objective of this paper is to analyze the trade flow between Brazil and the United States between 2000 and 2014, considering its evolution and analyzing indicators such as export and import tariffs, relative importance of bilateral trade, trade intensity index, concentration index, index of comparative advantage revealed and the intersectoral pattern of bilateral trade. To contextualize the analysis of trade flows between the two countries, a brief retrospective of the conduct of Brazilian foreign policy between 2000 and 2014 is presented, particularly considering the strategies of Brazil's diplomatic relations with the United States, whose objective is to provide subsidies for construction hypotheses and speculations about the relationship between foreign policy and trade flows. In this sense, it is important to point out that no assertion is made in the sense that foreign policy has determined the behavior of trade flows between the two countries, since during the period there were several other factors operating and there is no analysis to capture the relevance of foreign policy.
    Keywords: F1 ; F15 ; F5 ; ddc:330 ; foreign policy ; foreign trade ; Brazil ; United States
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 9
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text deliberates and relates the concepts of culture, human rights and cultural policies within the idea of cultural development. It considers the development as a set of activities of transformation of social and environmental reality in interface with the cultural dimension. It describes the concept of creative economy by relating it to new forms of post-industrial production and makes an exercise to define and measure social categories (creative classes) that work in creative activities in Brazil for the period 20022015. Therefore, it shows the dynamics and the participation of the creative economy and the culture economy in the Brazilian development processes. The analysis of the way that creative classes in Brazil are organized carried out in this article, took as parameter the classification inspired by the study of Richard Florida and remodeled for the Brazilian reality from the data of the PNAD and the official professional classifications of the IBGE. It shows that the creative class has grown significantly in its quota, from 10 million people in 2002 to 15 million in 2015, registering significant variations in the contingent of the professional groups that involve it (hyper creative center, hyper creative and creative professionals, with increases of 37%, 51% and 23%, respectively). Although it is a small contingent compared to the United States, for example, whose percentage reaches 30% of the workforce of that country, the results obtained in this study point to a not insignificant increment of the creative economy in the country.
    Keywords: L80 ; ddc:330 ; creative economy ; creative classes ; cultural development
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 10
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The article aims to contribute for studies related to civil society organizations and their fields of action analyzing the public monetary resources received by them and the projects executed by these organizations in partnership with federal government in Brazil. The aim is to detail how organizations executed the resources received from 2010 to 2018 considering aspects as organization profile, general characteristics of projects developed, thematic areas and the evolution of these partnerships in recent years. For that were considered information from the public platform Mapa das Organizações da Sociedade Civil (Mapa das OSCs) e from Brazilian federal public budget (2010-2018).
    Keywords: L31 ; ddc:330 ; OSCs ; public monetary resources ; third sector
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 11
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: R11 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 12
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The opportunities in the labor market and formation of human capital (education) affect the implicit costs of engaging in illegal activities. In this article we empirically investigate the effect that the unemployment rate, which real income in the labor market and which school atandence rate for young people (15 to 24 years) exert on the prevalence of homicides in Brazilian municipalities. We also analyze the heterogeneities related to the specialization of work and the life cycle in youth. In order to overcome the problems of endogeneity, in our identification strategy we used a instrumental variable estimation of panel data model for all Brazilian municipalities (between 1980 and 2010), closely following the approach developed by Gould et al. (2002). The instruments its relationship to long-term structural changes in industry that affect the demand for labor in cities. We found the following results over homicide rate: i) positive effect of men's unemployment rate, which is greater for young adults (25-29 years); ii) no effect of real hourly labor wage ; and iii) the negative effect of the school attendance rate of 15 to 17 years.
    Keywords: J23 ; J24 ; K42 ; ddc:330 ; labor markets ; crime ; homicide ; unemployment rate ; school attendance rate
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 13
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The present text deals with the importance of methodological debates in research organizations that formulate studies, proposals and appraisals of public policies. They should be open to diversity and innovation of conceptions, interpretations and methods. The text also expounds this methodological vision: to a large extent, scientific knowledge consists of conjectures and educated guesses, connected overall in a uncertain and fallible web. The connection is often made by means of nondemonstrative logic. Some subjective elements enter into nearly all arguments, inferences and reasonings. Hence, appraisals of almost all of them are personal. In science, alongside abundant disagreements, there are agreements and settlements; but there are no factual truths that may be definitely established by holders of a rank or position in any organization.
    Keywords: B40 ; ddc:330 ; educated guess ; nondemonstrative logic ; subjective probability ; tacit knowledge
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 14
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The executive vetoed two legislative proposals on the creation and emancipation of municipalities in its entirety in 2013 and 2014. In August 2018, another supplementary bill, with six other proposals attached, is under an emergency regime, awaiting a vote in the House plenary. The theme of creation and emancipation of municipalities is pressing in the Brazilian legislative debate. The academic literature lists evidence of the negative results of municipal fragmentation, especially for metropolitan regions. This monograph quantifies the quality of life of metropolitan citizens in the face of four alternative rules of distribution of municipal tax collection. Hence, it adds evidence to the current literature, usually of an argumentative nature. Methodologically, a validated agent-based spatial model is simulated with three markets: real estate, goods and labor. Upon these markets, taxes on consumption, profits, wages, property and real estate transactions are applied. The alternatives tested are verified through econometric models. Two of them use real exogenous variables and three use simulated data. The results confirm two central conclusions. First, the progression of the Municipal Participation Fund (MPF) and its relevance to guarantee a better quality of life in metropolitan municipalities is confirmed. The second indication is that the simple municipal merger would improve citizens' quality of life, compared to the status quo in 23 Brazilian metropolises. In some cases, the metropolitan municipal merger is sufficient to compensate for a hypothetical absence of the FPM criteria. In any case, the monograph presents quantitative evidence that allows comparing alternative tax distributions for each of the 40 simulated metropolises, identifying more efficient forms of fiscal distribution and contributing to contemporary literature and parliamentary debate.
    Keywords: H73 ; R58 ; C63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal efficiency ; creation and municipal emancipation ; metropolitan regions ; fiscal federalism
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 15
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This Working Paper presents the evaluation of the qualitative criteria considered by cargo shippers when they contract freight services with logistic operators and transporters in Brazil. To do so, the data of a survey carried out by the Planning and Logistics Company (EPL), in which a set of stated preferences was simulated with the shippers, are used. It was possible to obtain the willingness to pay (WTP) values for the attributes time, reliability, flexibility and security, through a mixed logit model. Weight of 83% in the shippers' process of choosing the carrier; the time had weight of 8%, and the other attributes around 3% each. The overall WTP results, for a trip with an average distance of 500 km, were: R$ 2.33/t for the reduction of one hour of travel; R$ 4.70/t to have 95% certainty in the delivery time (reliability); R$ 5.14/t for flexibility in delivery; and R$ 6.25/t to limit losses by up to 0.25% (security). These results vary depending on the distance of the trip and the region of the country where the cargo will be shipped. However, there were no significant variations for the type of cargo, possibly by most survey respondents operate with industrialized cargoes, while only a small part operated mineral and agricultural bulk. A generalized transport cost function was proposed to be used in network allocation models for transport network planning purposes. With such a cost function, it will be possible to incorporate the qualitative factors considered by the shippers into their transport mode and route choices, provided that the arcs of the modeled network contain the respective parameters of time, safety and reliability.
    Keywords: L91 ; C35 ; ddc:330 ; freight transportation ; modal choice ; qualitative aspects in transportation ; transportation generalized cost function
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 16
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text aims to describe practices, enjoyment and production of online content, that is, the culture in TIC Domicílio 2017 preparing ground for possible dialogues with TIC Cultura, both performed by the Regional Center for Studies on the Development of the Information Society (Cetic.br), in order to contribute to the reflection on the internet's use and access to cultural goods and services. In order to do so, a survey of the historical context of the Internet's emergence and development was carried out, as well as the political-economic structuring that governs its organization and, consequently, the processes in the digital world. From data's analysis, the access of selected practices was socioeconomically characterized, as well as the accumulation of uses - the action of performing various practices on the internet and its different types of use. The analyzes were based on the understanding of the value inherent to the process of statistical construction based on Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar's notion of literary inscription; as well as Pierre Bourdieu's conception of structured field and instances of consecration and legitimation. As a result, it was verified a need to relativize the majority discourses that emphasize the supposedly democratizing character of the medium, once the Internet produces and reproduces hierarchies, exclusions and social inequalities. Regarding to the population's access to cultural equipment, it is necessary to understand the determinations of the practices, as well as the cultural dispositions' characteristics that organize the individual investments in the uses of the ICTs.
    Keywords: L80 ; ddc:330 ; internet ; ICTs ; cumulativity ; literary inscriptions ; instances of consecration ; social exclusion ; inequality
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 17
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The main question behind this article is: does the University for All Program (Prouni) promote better professional trajectories, which result in higher salaries for its beneficiaries? The salaries of the graduates who were employed show that those who went to college through Prouni had a more precarious insertion. Nonetheless, contrary to what may seem at first glance, this does not necessarily demonstrate a failure of this program to promote better occupational trajectories. After all, the variation of salaries before and after college graduation shows that there were salary advances for both groups, beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of Prouni. However, in the case of the beneficiaries, this advance seems to have been significantly larger.
    Keywords: I20 ; I23 ; I26 ; I28 ; ddc:330 ; Prouni ; colleges ; salaries
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 18
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper discusses about the impact of the highway concession policy on regional income and dynamics. It gathers information from the 2010 Population census and a federal highway concession, the Autopista Fluminense, to examine the attenuation of per capita income in the potential commuting tolled. The discussion deducing that there is a high volume of regional commuting that potentially use the highway and not charged. Otherwise, there was a small portion of the population tariffed, how had lower incomes and charge with "gratuity" commuting. In addition, this study illustrate the impact and reflexes of the uni and bidirectional charges for this low-income population.
    Keywords: H23 ; H41 ; J31 ; J61 ; L98 ; O18 ; ddc:330 ; highway concessions ; tolls ; regional commuting ; per capita income ; transportation infrastructure
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 19
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This work aimed to synthetize information regarding beef, pork and broiler production in Brazil, as well as the role of Brazil in the international market. This study was developed within a partnership between The Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (Apex-Brasil) and The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea). We find that both production and productivity have increased from 2009 to 2018. These increments allowed Brazil to be a major player in meat production and exports during the period, which is strongly related to cost advantages over other countries. China has increased its meat imports from Brazil, whilst Russia systematically reduced its beef and pork. Overall, we suggest to policymakers to set up strategies to promote Brazilian meat and open new markets in order to diversify the consumers and reduce the exports dependence, and its inherent risks, to few countries.
    Keywords: Q13 ; Q17 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; livestock ; international trade ; exports ; meat
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 20
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The paper assess the effect of the Brazilian Conditional Cash Transfer Program, Bolsa Familia (BF), on school attendance among adolescent mothers relative to adolescent non-mothers, combining quantitative and qualitative technics. The quantitative analysis was based on the 2010 Census, and was conducted in two steps. First we estimated through logit models the impact of maternity on schooling attendance for each one of the 138 Brazilian meso-regions. Then we used a linear model at the meso-region level to estimate the relationship between the incidence of BF on one hand, and the previously estimated sensibility of the schooling attendance to maternity on the other hand. The results indicate that BF increases relative less the schooling attendance among adolescent mothers. Semi structured interviews with adolescent mothers living in Distrito Federal corroborate this result and add more insights to policy discussion.
    Keywords: O15 ; J13 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; adolescent mothers ; conditional cash transfers ; schooling attendance
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 21
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: J16 ; H55 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 22
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In this paper, we estimate the distributive impacts of trade openness on within sector income distribution. The empirical approach is to estimate the econometric relation between effective rates of protection and various indicators of within sector inequality: the Gini and Theil indices of wage inequality in each economic sector, the ratio between wages of production and nonproduction workers, and the ratio between the wage bill and value added for each sector. The econometric specification is a fixed effects model in which each sector is compared to itself in various moments in time. The results show a significant but small effect of trade openness upon wage inequality as measured by Gini and Theil Coefficients and also small effects in the opposite direction between trade openness and the wage bill to value added ratio. This means that a substantive reduction in effective rates of protection will lead to small reductions in wage inequality and even smaller increases in the functional inequality in each sector.
    Keywords: F16 ; ddc:330 ; effective rates of protection ; wage inequality
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 23
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The purpose of this text is to analyze the weight and the allocation of resources through parliamentary amendments in the federal budget to finance expenditures with public health services (ações e serviços públicos de saúde - ASPS) from 2015 to 2018. An exploratory and descriptive study of the Ministry of Health budget execution was conducted, focusing on the resources that were allocated to health programs to assist specific beneficiaries. Data were obtained from the SIGA Brasil, a public access system maintained by the Federal Senate. Some indicators were calculated to support the analysis. The results show that the Ministry of Health is engaged in a larger volume of expenditure than is determined by mandatory parliamentary amendments, and that its expenses associated with other, non-mandatory parliamentary amendments, are occurring in very high level. In 2018, the mandatory parliamentary amendments execution was R$ 4.4 billion and the expenses associated with parliamentary amendments in general totaled R$ 8.8 billion. It was identified an increase in the allocation of resources for the costing of the Unified Health System (Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS) and deficit of transparency in the budget-financial execution of the resources allocated to the increment of the resources for primary care (Piso da Atenção Básica - PAB) and the resources for medium and high complexity services (Teto de Média e Alta Complexidade - Teto MAC). There was an increase in the allocation of funds to increase the PAB and Teto MAC in the analyzed period, so that these transfers increased from R$ 240.1 million in 2014 to R$ 6.6 billion in 2018, at constant values, with an increase of 2,650% in this period. As in 2018, expenses with ASPS associated with parliamentary amendments totaled R$ 8.8 billion, the resources allocated by parliamentarians for temporary increase of the PAB and Teto MAC that year correspond to 74.9% of total expenses associated with amendments parliamentarians. Inequalities were also identified in the allocation of resources for the costing of the services of both the Teto MAC and the PAB. In the latter case, without observing the criteria established for resource allocation. Finally, it is concluded that the allocation of resources for SUS funding through parliamentary amendments may be generating more inequalities in the provision of health services in the system, something that needs to be investigated in detail in future studies.
    Keywords: H51 ; ddc:330 ; Unified Health System ; health care rationing ; budgets ; health services ; equity in resource allocation ; parliamentary amendments
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 24
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The economic transformations occurred in the new frontier of Brazilian agribusiness, Matopiba, especially with relation to employment opportunities in the agribusiness, have motivated migratory flow to this region. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the income differentials between the migrant and the non-migrant in the region. Microdata extracted from the 2010 Demographic Census, made available by IBGE, were used. Equations of income differentials were estimated, separating individuals by domicile, labor market (formal and informal) and sectors of activity. The results showed that non-migrants obtained lower incomes than migrants in all working groups. The largest income differentials occurred among rural individuals, the workers of the informal market, specifically among autonomous workers, and those employed in agricultural activity. It is believed, therefore, that the insertion of the migrant into the local economy contributes to the expansion of agriculture in this region.
    Keywords: J61 ; J62 ; J71 ; ddc:330 ; agriculture ; migration ; income decomposition ; Matopiba
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 25
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Technology management is currently a major challenge to health systems. Scientific and technological development in recent decades has made possible to offer sophisticated treatments for various diseases, contributing to the increase of the population's expectations and quality of life. However, access to these advances has not become universal. Considering this reality, the objectives of this text are to point out and discuss challenges that the State face in relation to the incorporation of drugs in the Unified Health System (SUS). It was taking into account the principles that guide the therapeutic assistance offered through the system, its current process of health technology assessment and the budgetary constraint imposed on the system, in recent years, by economic crisis and by fiscal austerity. Documents that establish the legal framework of this issue, scientific articles and information on the spending on medicines and access to these products were used to support the arguments presented in this text. Finally, we recognize the advances promoted by the SUS regarding the supply of health goods and services to the population and the technology assessment process, but also the need to improve health technology management and pharmaceutical services policies.
    Keywords: I10 ; ddc:330 ; technology assessment ; pharmaceutical preparations ; pharmaceutical services ; access to essential medicines and health technologies ; health equity
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 26
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This study aims to analyze the quantile treatment effect of Prouni on the students' Enade grades from 2015 to 2017. The results indicated that the impact of the program was positive throughout the grades distribution, mainly for students who received full scholarship. The impact was also greater for students who declare family income of more than three minimum wages, which reinforces the argument that it is necessary to focus the policy resources on low-income students and prioritize those with the highest budget constraints. The effect of the program was also positive for students enrolled in institutions with quality concept 4 and 5. Thus, the study results confirm that financial aid policies for low-income students are able to combine inclusion and quality in higher education.
    Keywords: D22 ; H52 ; I21 ; ddc:330 ; educational credit ; Prouni ; quantilic regression ; academic performance
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 27
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Brazil federal tax policy changed course since 2007, when it was heavily activated to stimulate economic activity in a broad sense including job creation. A key policy instrument in this period was a tax on manufacturing products known as IPI (Imposto sobre produtos industrializados), whose tax rates decrease for a long list of products. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the impact of IPI reductions from 2007 to 2012 on labor market related outcomes, such as employment, hiring, separations and wages. We got null estimates for the impact in all labor market related variables for the whole period. Once we consider two subperiods, there appears impacts of reductions in IPI driving reductions in separations only for the 2010-2012 period. All these results are robust to alternative methodological procedures.
    Keywords: J23 ; H25 ; ddc:330 ; IPI ; labor market
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 28
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: Q51 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 29
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: L60 ; l70 ; O14 ; R11 ; R12 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 30
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Allocating sufficient resources to the Unified Health System (SUS) is a basic premise for compliance by the State with its duty to guarantee universal, equal and integral access to health goods and services in Brazil. As a way of ensuring minimal resources to the system, the compulsory expenditure with health was instituted. Recently, amid the fiscal crisis and the changes in the political environment in the country, the extinction of this compulsory expenditure is considered. In this context, the objective of this paper is to present evidence and discuss the relevance of maintaining the compulsory public health expenditure, thus contributing to the public debate on the topic. A narrative review of the technical-scientific literature and legal documents was performed to organize the discussion on the subjects treated in two perspectives: i) a historical perspective on the regulation of the minimum application of resources in the SUS, including in the report the propositions that weren't approved and the motivations for this regulation; and ii) a theoretical-empirical perspective on the hypothesis that universal public health systems, such as the SUS, and the compulsory health expenditure in Brazil are relevant to the right to health as determined by the Federal Constitution of 1988 (CF/1988). Considering the evidence presented about the lack of priority with the system and, consequently, with the guarantee of the right to health in Brazil, the conclusion is that the compulsory health expenditure remains essential. Even so, this obligation alone does not solve the financing problem of the system, since in spite of the institution of the floors of application from 2000, health expenses are still very low compared to those countries with similar income and who do not have a universal health system. However, it is an important mechanism to protect against throwback in the supply of health goods and services, something that is forbidden by CF/1988. The stability in the financing of the SUS is fundamental and the compulsory health expenditure fulfilled vital role, considering the trajectory of public health financing. Nonetheless, the country needs to make an additional effort to guarantee sufficient resources to finance the SUS, given the challenges posed to the system stemming from epidemiological, demographic and technological issues that drive the growth of health spending.
    Keywords: H51 ; ddc:330 ; healthcare financing ; health expenditures ; universal access to health care services ; right to health ; national health systems ; Unified Health System
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 31
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The objective of this study was to examine the extent to which the railway modalities implemented in the Midwest region have contributed to boost the integration process of this region to the main international consumption centers. In order to do so, it was adopted the hypothesis that the export vector has to boost the transformations in the productive structure of the Midwest, integrating, therefore, this regional space to the logic of valorization of international capital, particularly to the main centers of consumption located in the markets Asian countries. For that, in the methodological aspect, the descriptive and analytical method was adopted. Finally, it can be observed in the investigation that the railway modal in the Midwest presented strong evidence to contribute, directly and indirectly, to reinforce the development strategy outlined in this region, from the 90's of the XX century, of integrate these local economies through national integration and development with the main centers of international consumption, especially those located in the Asian region.
    Keywords: R11 ; ddc:330 ; Midwest ; railways ; exports ; regional development
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 32
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This study aimed to verify the relationship for the period 1999-2015 among Brazilian agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), rural credit and transport infrastructure investment. For this purpose, the time series methodology was applied to quarterly data, involving an estimation of a vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality tests. The results of the estimation of VECM suggest a negative long run relationship from public infrastructure investment to rural credit and agricultural GDP, but with a low economic impact. Granger tests pointed causality from agricultural GDP to rural credit and public infrastructure investment, and from agricultural GDP and public investment to credit. These results suggest that agricultural GDP growth had the potential to leverage the demand for rural credit and infrastructure investments. On the other hand, the competition for resources between financing rural production and public infrastructure investment resulted in a negative impact on the agricultural sector in the long run.
    Keywords: Q10 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; rural credit ; transport infrastructure ; agricultural gross domestic product
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 33
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The scope of this study is comprehensive, extending from technological development to historical evolution of planning in energy sector. On policy, the current situation of the national context was clarified, including reforms and programs that characterized the industry in the last two decades. The adherence of Brazilian policy to the evolution of the energy and climate policies at the international level was obtained with the examination of more than ten countries and with the chronological comparison of the regulatory framework in Brazil, the United States and the European Union. The most interesting, however, was to see how planning and policy can be shaped by technical progress, albeit belatedly. This finding followed the examination of the technological dimension, divided in twelve branches of energy generation, which allowed a glimpse of the diversity of alternatives, as well as the real chances of achieving truly sustainable technologies.
    Keywords: O33 ; ddc:330 ; sustainable energy ; renewable and non-renewable ; political transition ; technological innovations
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 34
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper estimates the consequences of mismatches between workers' attainment of vocational education and requirement of this type of qualification in their occupations in Brazil. Two types of vocational education are investigated here: vocational training and secondary vocational education, which are the most important in Brazil. Combining data from the 2007 PNAD and the 2010 Brazilian Classification of Occupations, indicators of required qualification can be imputed to each employed individual according to his or her occupation. Thus, based on the attainment of vocational education, workers in the sample can be classified as adequately matched, overqualified or underqualified. Estimates indicate that the lack of required qualification seems to have negative consequences on labor earnings, and that workers with vocational education earn more than those who did not complete a course of this type even in occupations where vocational education is not need.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; I21 ; ddc:330 ; vocational education and training ; occupational skill requirements ; labor earnings
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 35
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text presents a typology proposal for State visions on representations of women as references to shape the public action. The theoretical framing of this proposal assumes that there are many disputes among narratives of state agents, considering the patriarchal foundations of political institutions. Many works on this issue correctly criticize, in our opinion, the State's maternalist framework of women on social development policies, reinforcing stereotypes and the sexual division of care. We agree with this approach, but we also present other views that the State can take when it comes to policies that have women as the target audience. From a formal analysis of selected policies, we indicate that, in addition to this reproductive vision, it is also possible to identify a productive vision (which fits women exclusively as labor in the labor market), an inclusive vision (which prioritizes to consolidate citizenship rights for women in an expanded approach to fight gender inequality) and a reactive vision (which incorporates women already in the course of policy implementation as a later incremental adjustment). These categories do not seek to completely exhaust the possibility of visions of the State on women. Our goal is to understand the policy designs implemented in the last decades in Brazil identifying more effective and incisive measures to fight gender inequality in the country.
    Keywords: H11 ; ddc:330 ; gender ; public policies ; women ; State
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 36
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of foresight methods and techniques, with the aim of updating the debate and highlighting the more recent approaches in the field. In revisiting these methods and techniques, we observed the need for a brief incursion in an epistemological discussion. On the one hand, we conclude that foresight studies lean toward a pragmatic standing, neglecting the epistemological rigor. This epistemological frailty can damage the field's legitimacy as an academic and scientific endeavor. On the other hand, we observe a clear revival of foresight, with new research centers around the world, which shows that futures studies are pivotal as a base for decision making processes and for the desire for change.
    Keywords: C53 ; E17 ; C18 ; ddc:330 ; futures studies ; foresight ; scenarios ; forecasting
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 37
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This work aimed to reproduce the methodology of Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of 2017 for estimating the automation probabilities of occupations in Brazil. These estimates are potentially important for professionals and policymakers because they can guide the career of a worker, as well as define priority courses that educational institutions should offer in order to maximize employment opportunities in the country. We consulted the opinion of 69 scholars and professionals that are experts in machine learning to ground the estimation the automation probability of Brazilian occupations. The findings indicate that a large part of the occupations can be automated in the next years. In addition, it can be seen that these professions with a higher risk of automation show a trend of growth over time, which may result in a high level of unemployment in the coming years if professionals and the government do not prepare for this scenario.
    Keywords: J24 ; J64 ; Q55 ; N36 ; J21 ; ddc:330 ; automation ; labor market ; artificial intelligence ; natural language processing ; technical expertise ; text mining
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 38
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The Brazilian tax system places undue emphasis on indirect taxes - which comprise over 51% of its gross tax burden. The country's insistence on taxes on goods and services (indirect taxes) - to the detriment of taxes on income and property (direct taxes) - undermines the real application of the principle of contributive capacity, resulting in a regressive system whereby families with less income proportionally finance a larger share of the State. In the study, we analyze this disturbing national quirk in light of the evolution of the tax systems of certain central countries and draw comparisons with their current legislation. In addition to being normatively biased, Brazilian tax legislation has several technical limitations for the application of more efficient and equitable taxation on property and income. We undertake an exercise applying the Pareto interpolation method, using the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey and the Large Numbers of Individual Income Tax Declarations (DIRPF), to estimate the level of inequality resulting from changes to personal income tax legislation. The key variable in the analysis is the reinstatement of taxation on profits and dividends, which are currently tax exempt. To that end, we have developed two simulations: one taxing profits and dividends at a 15% flat rate, and the other at a progressive rate varying between 15.0% and 27.5%. The results indicate a small improvement in income distribution, which is modest given the high level of income concentration in the country. On the other hand, there is a significant increase in revenue, between R$ 22 billion and R$ 39 billion, depending on the model for the taxation of profits and dividends. Finally, we performed a counterfactual exercise, whereby the additional revenue generated by the adoption of taxes on profits and dividends was used to fund an increase in public expenditure in several areas. The result was an improvement in income distribution.
    Keywords: D31 ; D63 ; H53 ; H2 ; ddc:330 ; taxes and inequality ; progressivity ; income concentration ; Pareto's interpolation
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 39
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In the period 2001-2011, we had a strong increase in private credit in Brazil, which increased from 27.2% to 51.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, private credit with free resources (with interest rates freely negotiated in the market, without subsidies and without direction) went from 15% to 30% of GDP. Private credit with free resources for firms grew strongly between 2004 and 2008, from around 10% in 2004 to around 15% of GDP in 2008. In this text, we sought to analyze the effects of this increase on private credit with free resources for firms in the percentage of entrepreneurs in the Brazilian economy in the 2004-2008. To do so, we used a version of the neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous agents, credit restrictions and occupational choice, making use of a mixed estimation and calibration approach for the Brazilian economy in 2004 in its implementation. We also simulated the increase in credit for firms with free resources in the period. The results show significant impacts of the credit increase for the firms on the percentage of entrepreneurs in the economy. In the exercise performed, the increase in credit with free resources for firms generated a growth of around 5% in the percentage of entrepreneurs in the total population between 2004 and 2006. Moreover, this increase in access, raised per capita GDP by 2% between 2004 and 2008, in the model. In this case, the rise in credit explains about 13.5% of the rise in GDP per capita in the period.
    Keywords: H51 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; credit restrictions ; credit expansion ; percentage of entrepreneurs ; total factor productivity ; GDP per capita ; heterogeneous agents ; occupational choice
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 40
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: It is discussed the weakening of special funds, as a mechanism for financing public policies. It operates on two fronts to support this fragilization. In the first one, innovations in the management of public resources are presented, making the funds expendable both to the linking of revenues and to the accumulation of balances (financial surplus). In the second, the idea of being funds (through the linkage of revenues) is disguised as a guarantee of resources for the purposes pursued. Exposure to the contingency contingency (arising from current tax rules), the constitution of a Contingency Reserve with own and/or linked revenues, in addition to the incidence of the DRU, underpin the aforementioned deconstruction. It is argued by way of conclusion that, on the financial flank, public policies are facing new challenges that (it is believed) have not yet been properly identified. How to face them, in turn, demands collegial decision, dialogical reason, that supplant the purposes of the investigation. Here we are content with this process of identification, which shortens spaces for confrontation.
    Keywords: G23 ; H10 ; H81 ; ddc:330 ; funds ; public policies ; financing
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 41
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This study aims to present a systematic identification of themes and questions related to economic, social and demographic transformations in operation on national territory in the 2003-2015 period. A balance of efforts, advances and difficulties to implement the national regional policy (PNDR) is developed in order to subsidize the assessment process of regional policies in Brazil.
    Keywords: O2 ; R5 ; R58 ; ddc:330 ; regional development ; regional policies ; public policies
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 42
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The present work aims to present how the regional development has been processed by several institutions, in different countries. In this sense, we will analyze the main regional institutions in countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy and France, from the analysis of a relevant bibliography, from primary and secondary sources. The preliminary results of this study indicate that the accession of these countries to the European Union was decisive for the national regional policies to be substantively modified.
    Keywords: F52 ; F53 ; H56 ; O3 ; ddc:330 ; regional development ; institutions ; public policy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 43
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: L28 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 44
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In the last few years, many Brazilian firms have been strongly interested in programs of compliance as well as in programs of integrity. These matters are also relevant to government offices of inspection and control of public sector activities as well as to offices of regulation of economic affairs in the private sector. The present text is introductory and deals with the importance of programs of integrity. The major reason for them is that they concern in a conscious and more direct way the aim of attaining integrity in a organization. While supporting this assertion, the text distinguishes between programs of risk management, programs of compliance and programs of integrity. Moreover, it explains what is integrity and what role it has.
    Keywords: D73 ; A13 ; ddc:330 ; program of integrity ; compliance ; bureaucratic degeneration ; risk management
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 45
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Offset agreements represent a mechanism widely used by national governments, from which they pursue economic, commercial, industrial and technological benefits. It is the most popular and sophisticated counter-trade instrument, underpinning government procurement policy, involving a wide range of compensatory activities, such as licensed production, co-production, subcontracted production, investment, and technology transfer. National governments require these compensatory activities to foreign firms hired to supply high-cost goods and services, which confers high bargaining power on purchasing governments. Estimates of the magnitude of the offset arrangements presented in the literature are heterogeneous but vary between 5% and 30% of the total value of international transactions, corroborating the importance of this topic. The objective of this study is to contribute to the understanding of this policy scarcely explored by Brazilian literature, elucidating some issues that permeate it, such as adopted mechanisms, intended objectives, difficulties faced towards the achievement of goals, regulatory aspects, historical, military and civil offset. From the methodological point of view, this study is eminently qualitative, exploratory and descriptive, supported by bibliographical and documentary research.
    Keywords: H5 ; H57 ; ddc:330 ; countertrade ; offset agreements ; military offset and civil offset
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 46
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: With one of the largest territories in the world and a very extensive land border, surveillance and monitoring of this region are especially challenging for the Brazilian state. To overcome this challenge, the Integrated Border Monitoring System (SISFRON), the world's largest system of the kind, has been conceived and is in the process of implementation (although still in pilot project). Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze SISFRON in terms of its viability, effectiveness and conjunctural importance, considering the benefits it proposes to generate, mainly in the areas of politics, economics, technology, environment, civil society, National Defense and public security.
    Keywords: F52 ; J18 ; H50 ; ddc:330 ; Brazilian Army ; SISFRON ; borders ; National Defense ; public policy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 47
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: It should be emphasized the role assumed by government procurement policy in the list of public policies since this mechanism can be used to achieve a wide range of objectives. Moreover, this importance becomes even more evident when the high proportion of government purchasing power vis-à-vis the GDP of countries is verified. In Brazil, based on the study that will be presented in this text for discussion, the magnitude of the government procurement market represents 12.5% of the country's GDP (average calculated for the period 2006 and 2016). Given the importance of the market and government procurement policy, and intending to the scarcity of studies on these topics, the relevance of studies that throw light on them is in the eye. This is precisely the objective of this study, namely, to bring to the fore data and information about the Brazilian government procurement market between 2006 and 2016, considering the following dimensions: i) purchases of costing versus capital purchases; ii) direct administration and indirect administration (for the federal government); and iii) Participation of the three Federation ones. Besides the measurement of the Brazilian government procurement market for the period explained, this study also proposes to present explanations for the drop of about 4.5 p.p. between 2012 and 2016. Concerning methodological strategies, this study is mainly based on two mechanisms: i) bibliographic review of the literature concerning the central theme of the research; and ii) collection and analysis of secondary data from the Brazilian official bases, to measuring and analyzing the Brazilian government procurement market.
    Keywords: H5 ; H57 ; ddc:330 ; Brazil ; public procurement policy ; public procurement market assessment ; development
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 48
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This work presents the results of a research on urban mobility of the Social Perception Indicator System held in 2011, by the Ipea. In this document it is discussed the current mobility context in Brazil and, throughout the text, made a characterization of the population by the most used transport mode. It is also considered in the analysis the population's perception of the city and the public transportation used by them. The people's perception related to the travel time in the various modes of transport and the difficulties pointed to the realization of that travel are also taken into account in the study. Lastly, we propose an analysis of the mobility's problems from the general perception of its users.
    Keywords: R28 ; R40 ; O18 ; ddc:330 ; urban mobility ; social perception
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 49
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: National Defense requires adequately trained, prepared and equipped armed forces to perform in guaranteeing national interests and protect sovereignty. Regarding the issue of equipping - which is the main focus of the three forces' (Navy, Army, and Air Force) strategic programs - it is not restricted to investment in updated defense equipment and systems procurement, but chiefly the development of endogenous scientific-technological capacities able to provide defense needs. This makes it vital to undertake efforts and investments in the area of science, technology, and innovation, especially in research and development activities aimed at national defense. The purpose of this work is to analyze the importance of such activities in the achievement of the main strategic programs of the Brazilian Navy. For this purpose, the main aspects of the interrelation between national defense and science, technology and innovation, the general characteristics of the Navy's main strategic programs and the importance of scientific-technological enterprises in their development will be examined.
    Keywords: L64 ; O32 ; O38 ; ddc:330 ; national defense ; science ; technology and innovation ; Brazilian Navy ; strategic programs ; Armed Forces
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 50
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The objective of this article is to describe and analyze some of the main characteristics related to the functioning and organizational structures of two governmental research institutions, the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) and the Korea Development Institute (KDI), which are international references. The choice of these institutions was due to the fact that their size and attributions are very similar to those of the main Brazilian governmental organization of research in public policies, the Ipea. The main idea is, from the lessons extracted about the forms of action and institutional characteristics of those organizations, to draw attention to the debate about possible alternatives of innovations and trajectories which could be potentially incorporated by Ipea.
    Keywords: I23 ; ddc:330 ; think tanks ; governmental organizations of research in public policies ; KDI ; CPB ; Ipea
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 51
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This article aims to test empirical implications of the classical Beckerian theory on discrimination against women in Brazil. Specifically, the contemporary relationship between the relative use of women versus men and the performance, and how this relation changes with product market power is examined. The theory is tested using a panel of longitudinal microdata linking information at firm level from a matched employer-employee data (RAIS) and a firm level survey with detailed information on firm performance (PIA) from 2002 to 2013. We claim that the result may be contaminated by elements related to occupational segregation when the test is performed using the standard measure of relative employment of women. We propose a new measure that takes this into account; and implement the test with both measures of relative employment of women. The results indicated that in most of the specifications there is a positive and significant relationship between relative employment of women and profitability for companies with high market power. In a few specifications, this relationship also appears as positive and significant for companies with lower market power. But even in such cases the ratio is always stronger for the higher level of market power we consider. Finally, we find that the relationship between relative employment of women and profit depends on market power is much more stable when the first variable is measured by the index we propose.
    Keywords: J71 ; J16 ; ddc:330 ; relative employment of women ; discrimination by gender ; market power
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 52
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The Food Acquisition Program (PAA) was established in 2003 in the context of the political agenda that was characterized by the fight against hunger, which later resulted in the institutionalization of the National System of Food and Nutrition Security (Sisan) in 2006, and the National Policy on Food and Nutrition Security (PNSAN) in 2010. The objective of this work was to analyze the PAA in the Purchase with Simultaneous Donation Mode, elaborate the logical model to explain the underlying theory of this purchasing modality and carrying out a review of the results obtained in the studies already carried out on it. This study based on documentary content analysis using the ATLAS.ti program and a systematic literature review. The model elaborated allowed to synthesize the basic references of the Program, including the problems, objectives, interventions and intermediate and final results. The PAA is as a Structural Program within the PNSAN, because, besides fighting hunger directly, by donating food, its main objective is to use the purchasing power of the government to foster family agriculture, which would generate positive impacts on the productive matrix, promoting the sustainability of the agri-food system and inclusive rural development. In general, the results of the studies already carried out corroborate the hypotheses on which the Program based, indicating benefits to the farmers, their production and family quality of life, as well as the strengthening of cooperatives and associations of producers and entities receiving the products, thus contributing to the food security of the beneficiary suppliers and consumers. These studies also pointed out some difficulties that indicate the need for improvements in its operationalization. There has also been a reduction in the resources invested in the program in recent years.
    Keywords: Q18 ; ddc:330 ; family agriculture ; public policies ; food security and nutrition
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 53
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper describes the evolution of poverty among pretos (black), pardos (brown/mixed) and brancos (white) from 2004 to 2014, and investigates whether along with the already known reduction of poverty in the period there was also reduction of the racial inequality of poverty. To do so, it presents the main indicators of the incidence, intensity and inequality of poverty for a broad set of poverty lines, from US$ PPP 0.10 to 10.00 per day per person. The indicators are decomposed to ascertain the contribution of each group to overall poverty, and the odds of pretos, pardos and brancos being poor are analyzed. The fall in poverty from 2004 to 2014 as a whole, and separately among pretos, pardos and brancos, was characterized for all lines. This decline was greater among pretos and pardos than among brancos, leading to a decrease in the racial inequality of poverty. Although it has declined, the racial inequality of poverty remains very high. In 2014, the level of poverty indicators for pretos and pardos was almost equal to that of brancos in 2004. In 2004, on the average of the poverty lines considered, the odds of pretos being poor were 2.5 times greater than brancos'; and the odds of pardos was 3.2 times higher. In 2014, the odds of pretos being poor was still 2.1 times greater than brancos', while that of pardos remained 2.6 times greater.
    Keywords: I32 ; ddc:330 ; poverty ; racial inequality
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 54
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper analyzes the unemployment duration in Brazil between 2012 and 2017, comparing two very different points in time. There was substantial disparity in labor market conditions over the period investigated. The period 2012-2013 had low unemployment rates, whereas the unemployment rate reached high levels in the period 2016-2017. According to estimates, high levels of unemployment are associated with a lower probability of finding a job. The results also show that reductions in the rates of transition from unemployment to better jobs are more accentuated than those related to low quality jobs during recessions.
    Keywords: J23 ; J64 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; unemployment duration ; business cycle
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 55
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Social protection policy in Brazil is a historically built patchwork of programs that pay different values to people in the same situation, leaves many unprotected (in particular, 17 million children), is fraught with duplications and other inefficiencies. This note proposes an approach within which can join all transfers to individuals vulnerable to poverty and children within a single framework. The budgets of the Bolsa Família, Abono Salarial, Salário-Família programs and the child income tax deduction together add up to R$ 52 billion (about USD 15 billion). With these resources, it is possible to propose a new transfer program based on a Universal Child Benefit and targeted Extreme Poverty Grant whose impacts on poverty and inequality are twice those of the four programs above.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330 ; social protection ; universal child grant ; Bolsa Família ; Abono Salarial ; Salário-Família
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 56
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The purpose of this paper was to analyze the political role of the Deliberative Council of the Worker Support Fund (Codefat) in the process of coordination and participatory deliberation within the Public System of Employment, Work and Income (SPETR). As inputs, the minutes of all meetings of the council from its creation in 1990 until the end of 2016 were analyzed, identifying the matters subject to deliberation. It was found that on several occasions the Codefat had to face external interferences, generating instability in its deliberative potential, in function of the efforts of different coalitions of interest to have greater control over the financial resources that circulate around the Worker Support Fund (FAT). These interests, on the other hand, do not come only from representations related to capital and labor, since government representation also acts actively to assert its own interests, which focus mainly on the discussions about the budget dynamics of the FAT, in order to bring control over current revenues and expenses. In this sense, it is possible to affirm the existence of an overlapping of bureaucratic spaces of command with different structures of power, which in practice constitutes a "hierarchy of decision-making power".
    Keywords: J58 ; ddc:330 ; participative deliberation ; public system of employment ; hierarchy of decision-making power ; Codefat ; FAT
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 57
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This study evaluated the impact of Fies on the total time and delay in the completion of higher education of students enrolled in presential courses of private institutions, based on information of INEP from 2007 to 2017. Estimates of the Average Treatment Effect on Treated indicated that participation in Fies increased both the results analyzed, total time and delay. In the first phase of the policy, from 2000 to 2009, the increase in completion time for students who received Fies was 8.5 months. In the second phase, from 2010 to 2014, which is characterized by the loosening of the rules for the granting and payment of the loan, the increase was 2.4 years. In the case of the delay in completing the course, the result was significant only in the 2nd phase, indicating an increase of 1.8 years for the students who received the Fies. In this view, it is necessary to introduce incentive mechanisms in the student credit granting policies in order that the student completes the course in regular time.
    Keywords: D22 ; H52 ; I21 ; ddc:330 ; credit for education ; Fies ; completion time ; propensity score matching ; entropy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 58
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Pesticides are not only agricultural inputs but also dangerous products, reason why the state must regulate them. However, if scientific evidence about the effects of pesticides is universal, why do regulations vary across countries? This article argues that pesticide regulation depends in part on the relative power of groups that gain and that lose with a certain type of regulation. Regulations are not created and implemented by politicallyneutral state agencies: they result from the relative influence of organized groups. In this "game", groups that concentrate costs or benefits of a hypothetical regulation have more incentives to mobilize than groups for which costs or benefits are diffuse. Yet, this does not prevent the latter from influencing the regulatory process, mainly through norms and scientific knowledge. The text also analyses how the use of pesticides evolved in Brazil since the beginning of the 1990s, focusing on how their use is concentrated in some crops and regions. Finally, the paper suggests a set of policies, with emphasis on preventing regulatory capture: i) maintaining a system of registration of pesticides not centralized in agencies working only to promote agricultural production; ii) creating mechanisms to prevent what the literature calls the "revolving door" problem; iii) increasing the participation of civil society organizations and experts; iv) training civil servants on relations with the private sector, regulation and regulatory capture; and v) maintaining guarantees for the freedom of expression and opinion. Finally, the text explores the potential effects of north-south dynamics on the pesticide regulation in Brazil, especially the fact that the production of pesticides in Brazil is controlled by multinational companies.
    Keywords: Q15 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; pesticides ; politics of regulation ; special interest groups ; advocacy networks ; regulatory capture
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 59
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Institutional characteristics of each country acquire increasingly importance in the economic literature of the determinants of growth, investment and risk perception, especially in emerging economies. The objective of this work is to quantitatively assess the impact of institutional quality indicators on the risk premium, i.e., the additional return required by the investor to commit investments in the countries. The article draws on the theoretical premises of the Gordon-Williams' discounted dividend model (DDM) and institutional quality indicators to estimate from a set of 4,763 companies located in 48 countries in the period from 2009 to 2015, the required return for investing in a company. Our main result is that by using a broad set of control variables, increasing the aggregate measure of institution quality reduces the required risk premium for the selected countries, contributing to higher levels of investment.
    Keywords: I23 ; ddc:330 ; institutional risk prize ; investments ; regulation and governance ; Gordon model
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 60
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In spite of being an almost ever-present subject in the Brazilian political and economic settings, regional inequality is still treated piecemeal, lacking a thoughtful closer look by the Federal Government. The persistence of inequality among Brazilian regions made, in the 2000s, the issue of planning for the development and the regional question were set back on the agenda for discussion of national problems. This discussion paper aims to detail the various actions that are being taken in favor of Brazil's development process taking as reference policies and territorial programs. It highlights that regions and territories should be as basic element among the various levels of public administration and society's expectations on territorial base, culminating in a more effective way for public choices and priorities.
    Keywords: R58 ; ddc:330 ; territory ; regional inequality ; development ; policy ; public ; integration ; region
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 61
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Although non-tariff barriers (NTBs) are one of the main barriers to trade nowadays, Brazil seems to lack a research program that investigates their effects. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric analysis of scientific articles evaluating NTBs in the scope of international trade, being the previous step for an analytical study of theories and methodologies adopted within the theme. The research strategy combined bibliographic survey techniques, content analysis to select articles and quantitative evaluation to measure variables of interest. The analysis was done using the 3 basic laws of bibliometrics: Lotka, Bradford and Zipf. The selection strategy collected a sample of 425 scientific articles published between 1966 and 2018, signed by 358 first authors and 299 co-authors, who are affiliated with 306 institutions based in 62 countries. The results presented highlight the main researchers on the subject, the universities and institutions that host these researches and in which countries they are based, the academic journals that publish the most regarding the theme and the most frequently used keywords. Thus, this work presents the profile of the scientific production dedicated to study non-tariff barriers and strengthens the hypothesis that production is still incipient at international level and almost non-existent in Brazil.
    Keywords: A31 ; B40 ; F13 ; F50 ; ddc:330 ; non-tariff barriers ; tariff equivalent ; bibliometry
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 62
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The Brazilian transport sector has difficulties to act systematically due to the absence of a flow and use of information and integration of databases and actors. This activities are usually performed by Monitoring and Evaluation Systems (MES). In Brazil, these activities are still incipient and restricted to a few sectors, which have been structuring in the last decade with the help of international organizations. This article explores the concepts of the General Theory of Systems to propose guidelines for a MES that can make Brazilian public transport policies more organic and effective. Twelve specific aspects were proposed, grouped into three general aspects: interaction with the environment, its structure and its purpose. A Delphi survey was applied to specialists and indicated these elements are still insufficient or answer formalities in the Brazilian reality of the transport infrastructure sector.
    Keywords: H11 ; H41 ; L98 ; O18 ; ddc:330 ; infrastructure ; transport planning ; monitoring and evaluation system ; public policy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 63
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: It is almost a consensus that the ongoing transformations in the Brazilian demographic structure press for urgent changes in the current social security rules as the objective of guaranteeing the actuarial balance of the national pension system. It is therefore important to predict the impact of proposed alterative rules on the future trajectories of contribution revenues and benefits expenditures. This task can be done with the help of a random sample of the individuals present in the National Register of Social Information (CNIS): an administrative file with the history of contributions and social security benefits of the participants of the General Social Security Regime (RGPS). The file also has information on relevant personal characteristics of these individuals, such as gender, age and year of birth, which can be used to estimate the probabilities of contribution and receipt of benefits from individuals from different segments of the Brazilian population. Since social security rules affect segments in an unequal way, these results can then be used to predict their impact on the sustainability of the pension system. This work takes the first step in this research effort by providing a detailed descriptive analysis of the CNIS database, pointing out its advantages and inconsistencies.
    Keywords: C10 ; H22 ; H55 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; public pension ; long run contribution profile ; wage profile
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 64
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: C41 ; D25 ; G38 ; L25 ; ddc:330
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 65
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper applies the dynamic linear model (DLM) estimated based on the Bayesian approach to project electricity consumption for five Brazilian regional units. The appeal for the use of DLM in the case of energy consumption is due to the fact that in this model the adjustment occurs in the unit of time ensuring more accurate projections in series with a high degree of variability, such as energy consumption. The results corroborated the expectation regarding the adequacy of DLM for the purpose of making projections. The different forecast validation criteria calculated for a 12-month horizon showed very satisfactory results. In all cases, MLD had a forecast error within the 3% range, taken as a reference for the utilities. In the case of the Center, Northeast and South regions, this indicator was even lower. We tested the robustness of the MDL using a model panel data with random coefficients (MRC) that allows to obtain a set of distinct coefficients for each region, but within a common structure. Regarding forecasting, MRC performance was also reasonable, even underperforming DLM. With the exception of the Southeast region, MRC's Mape was below or in the 3% range for the other regions.
    Keywords: Q4 ; Q43 ; L ; L5 ; L94 ; ddc:330 ; regional energy consumption ;