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  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-01-20
    Description: This working paper reviews the evidence on the impact of public R&D spending. The authors first look at the evidence from micro-analysis of the impact of public intervention on private R&D and innovation, with a focus on the latest results from crosscountry micro-research performed within SIMPATIC. To analyse the impact of public R&D on growth, the micro-results on private R&D investment effects are complemented with a macro-perspective. To this end, the authors look at how public R&D performs in affecting GDP growth and jobs in applied macro-models most commonly used in EU policy analysis. They focus particularly on the NEMESIS model in development within the SIMPATIC project. The authors conclude with some policy recommendations from the reviewed micro and macro SIMPATIC evidence for designing public R&D projects and programmes.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Forschungsfinanzierung ; Technologiepolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-01-20
    Description: On 25 November 2015, the European Union enacted new rules for international mobile roaming (IMR) under Regulation 2015/2120, which seeks to implement a Roam Like at Home (RLAH) regime among the member states of the European Union. Questions remain, however, as to whether it is possible to implement RLAH without mandating below-cost pricing and thus introducing significant regulatory and economic distortions. It is difficult to see how RLAH could be implemented for other than trivial amounts of IMR traffic without significant cross-subsidisation of the IMR service in many different dimensions. Identifying ways to maintain the ubiquity of the IMR service without unduly distorting the economics of European mobile markets and networks would appear to pose serious challenges; the saving grace, however, might well be that IMR revenue now represents a small enough fraction of total mobile revenue (thanks to previous regulation) that the necessary cross-subsidies might be manageable. The European Commission, which is required to assess the situation and to provide legislative proposals by 15 June 2016, faces a daunting task.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Mobilkommunikation ; International ; Telekommunikationspreis ; Preisregulierung ; Telekommunikationspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The long-term decline in gross public investment in European Union countries mirrors the trend in other advanced economies, but recent developments have been different: public investment has increased elsewhere, but in the EU it has declined and even collapsed in the most vulnerable countries, exaggerating the output fall. The provisions in the EU fiscal framework to support public investment are very weak.The recently inserted 'investment clause' is almost no help. In the short term, exclusion of national co-funding of EU-supported investments from the fiscal indicators considered in the Stability and Growth Pact would be sensible. In the medium term, the EU fiscal framework should be extended with an asymmetric 'golden rule' to further protect public investment in bad times, while limiting adverse incentives in good times. During a downturn, a European investment programme is needed and the European Semester should encourage greater investment by member states with healthy public finances and low public investment rates. Reform and harmonisation of budgeting, accounting, transparency and project assessment is also needed to improve the quality of public investment.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Öffentliche Investition ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; Finanzpolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2016-02-10
    Description: Low-carbon energy technologies are pivotal for decarbonising our economies up to 2050 while ensuring secure and affordable energy. Consequently, innovation that reduces the cost of low-carbon energy would play an important role in reducing transition costs. We assess the two most prominent innovation policy instruments (i) public research, development and demonstration (RD&D) subsidies and (ii) public deployment policies. Our results indicate that both deployment and RD&D coincide with increasing knowledge generation and the improved competitiveness of renewable energy technologies. We find that both support schemes together have a greater effect that they would individually, that RD&D support is unsurprisingly more effective in driving patents and that timing matters. Current wind deployment based on past wind RD&D spending coincides best with wind patenting. If we look into competitiveness we find a similar picture, with the greatest effect coming from deployment. Finally, we find significant cross-border effects, especially for winddeployment. Increased deployment in one country coincides with increased patenting in nearby countries. Based on our findings we argue that both deployment and RD&D support are needed to create innovation in renewable energy technologies. However, we worry that current support is unbalanced. Public spending on deployment has been two orders of magnitude larger (in 2010 about €48 billion in the five largest EU countries in 2010) than spending on RD&D support (about €315 million). Consequently, basing the policy mix more on empirical evidence could increase the efficiency of innovation policy targeted towards renewable energy technologies.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Förderung erneuerbarer Energien ; Technologiepolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: - Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. - However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons: - First, creditless recoveries are much less common in high-income countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. - Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Wirtschaftskrise ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Finanzsektor ; Kredit ; Welt ; Vergleich ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: New obstacles to the European banking union have emerged over the last year, but a successful transition remains both necessary and possible. The key next step will be in the second half of 2014, when the European Central Bank (ECB) will gain supervisory authority over most of Europe's banking system. This needs to be preceded by a rigorous balance sheet assessment that is likely to trigger significant bank restructuring, for which preparation has barely started. It will be much more significant than current discussions about a bank resolution directive and bank recapitalisation by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The 2014 handover, and a subsequent change in the European treaties that will establish the robust legal basis needed for a sustainable banking union, together define the policy sequence as a bridge that can allow Europe to cross the choppy waters that separate it from a steady-state banking policy framework.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzsystem ; Bankenaufsicht ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Irrespective of the euro crisis, a European banking union makes sense, including for non-euro area countries, because of the extent of European Union financial integration.The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) is the first element of the banking union. From the point of view of non-euro countries, the draft SSM regulation as amended by the EU Council includes strong safeguards relating to decision-making, accountability,attention to financial stability in small countries and the applicability of national macro-prudential measures. Non-euro countries will also have the right to leave the SSM and thereby exempt themselves from a supervisory decision. The SSM by itself cannot bring the full benefits of the banking union, but would foster financial integration, improve the supervision of cross-border banks, ensure greater consistency of supervisory practices, increase the quality of supervision, avoid competitive distortions and provide ample supervisory information. While the decision to join the SSM is made difficult by the uncertainty about other elements of the banking union, including the possible burden sharing, we conclude that non-euro EU members should stand ready to join the SSM and be prepared for the negotiations of the other elements of the banking union.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bankenpolitik ; Bankenaufsicht ; Bankensystem ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: An ambitious, comprehensive and high-standard trade and investment agreement between the European Union and the United States is feasible, but a key concern is whether the transatlantic trade partners will succeed in creating a meaningful agreement within the tight timeline of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations. The target of a ratified pact before a new European Commission takes office in November 2014 is an objective that is likely to conflict with the level of ambition on the substance. Regulatory congruence would require the unilateral and unconditional recognition by the TTIP partners of each other's standards, procedures and conformity assessment tests. The way forward is to create a 'living' (or progressive commitment) agreement on regulatory cooperation with a horizontal template for coherence and conformity assessment and a detailed monitoring mechanism, with implementation starting immediately for a few selected sectors. Regulatory harmonisation under TTIP may not lead to emerging markets automatically upgrading to the higher TTIP standards. Domestic priorities and the high demand from a rising price-sensitive group of consumers will likely result in a dual regulatory regime in emerging markets in the medium-term.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Handelsabkommen ; Handelsliberalisierung ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The SME access-to-finance problem is not universal in the European Union and there are reasons for the fall in credit aggregates and higher SME lending rates in southern Europe. Possible market failures, high unemployment and externalities justify making greater and easier access to finance for SMEs a top priority. Previous European initiatives were able to support only a tiny fraction of Europe's SMEs; merely stepping-up these programmes is unlikely to result in a break-through. Without repairing bank balance sheets and resuming economic growth, initiatives to help SMEs get access to finance will have limited success. The European Central Bank can foster bank recapitalisation by performing in the toughest possible way the asset quality review before it takes over the single supervisory role. Of the possible initiatives for fostering SME access to finance, a properly designed scheme for targeted central bank lending seems to be the best complement to the banking clean-up, but other options, such as increased European Investment Bank lending and the promotion of securitisation of SME loans, should also be explored.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; KMU ; Mittelstandsfinanzierung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 10
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The euro area faces a double challenge: debt overhang and the need for price adjustment. This paper reviews the debt challenges in the household and corporate sectors and maps out some policy options. In particular, we document the increase in private debt prior to the crisis and consider how the corporate and household sectors have adjusted their balance sheets during the crisis. We examine previous experiences with corporate and household deleveraging and draw lessons for policymakers. We show how the macroeconomic effects of balance-sheet adjustments have been in part offset by the use of fiscal deficits, and we discuss the resulting challenges. A key lesson is the importance of maintaining economic growth and avoiding a prolonged double-dip recession in the euro area while facilitating necessary deleveraging in some over-indebted sectors and countries. We also emphasise the need for a growth strategy tailored to southern Europe.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Private Verschuldung ; Verbindlichkeiten ; Kaufkraftparität ; Öffentliche Schulden ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 11
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: We run a standard income convergence analysis for the last decade and confirm an already established finding in the growth economics literature. EU countries are converging. Regions in Europe are also converging. But, within countries, regional disparities are on the rise. At the same time, there is probably no reason for EU Cohesion Policy to be concerned with what happens inside countries. Ultimately, our data shows that national governments redistribute well across regions, whether they are fiscally centralised or decentralised. It is difficult to establish if Structural and Cohesion Funds play any role in recent growth convergence patterns in Europe. Generally, macroeconomic simulations produce better results than empirical tests. It is thus possible that Structural Funds do not fully realise their potential either because they are not efficiently allocated or are badly managed or are used for the wrong investments, or a combination of all three. The approach to assess the effectiveness of EU funds should be consistent with the rationale behind the post-1988 EU Cohesion Policy. Standard income convergence analysis is certainly not sufficient and should be accompanied by an assessment of the changes in the efficiency of the capital stock in the recipient countries or regions as well as by a more qualitative assessment. EU funds for competitiveness and employment should be allocated by looking at each region’s capital efficiency to maximise growth-generating effects or on a pure competitive.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Regionalfonds ; EU-Strukturfonds ; EU-Regionalpolitik ; Kaufkraft ; Entwicklungskonvergenz ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 12
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: This paper describes the EU-EFIGE/Bruegel-UniCredit dataset (in short the EFIGE dataset), a database recently collected within the EFIGE project (European Firms in a Global Economy: internal policies for external competitiveness) supported by the Directorate General Research of the European Commission through its 7th Framework Programme and coordinated by Bruegel. The database, for the first time in Europe, combines measures of firms’ international activities (eg exports, outsourcing, FDI, imports) with quantitative and qualitative information on about 150 items ranging from R&D and innovation, labour organisation, financing and organisational activities, and pricing behaviour. Data consists of a representative sample (at the country level for the manufacturing industry) of almost 15,000 surveyed firms (above 10 employees) in seven European economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Austria, Hungary). Data was collected in 2010, covering the years from 2007 to 2009. Special questions related to the behaviour of firms during the crisis were also included in the survey. We illustrate the construction and usage of the dataset, capitalising on the experience of researchers who have exploited the data within the EFIGE project. Importantly, the document also reports a comprehensive set of validation measures that have been used to assess the comparability of the survey data with official statistics. A set of descriptive statistics describing the EFIGE variables within (and across) countries and industries is also provided.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Datenbank ; Verarbeitendes Gewerbe ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Erfolgsfaktor ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 13
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The euro area today consists of a competitive, moderately leveraged North and an uncompetitive, over-indebted South. Its main macroeconomic challenge is to carry out the adjustment required to restore the competitiveness of its southern part and eliminate its excessive public and private debt burden. This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal and competitiveness adjustment in a stylised model with two countries in a monetary union, North and South. To restore competitiveness, South implements a more restrictive fiscal policy than North. We consider two scenarios. In the first, monetary policy aims at keeping inflation constant in the North. The South therefore needs to deflate to regain competitiveness, which worsens the debt dynamics. In the second, monetary policy aims at keeping inflation constant in the monetary union as a whole. This results in more monetary stimulus, inflation in the North is higher, and this in turn helps the debt dynamics in the South. Our main findings are: The differential fiscal stance between North and South is what determines real exchange rate changes. South therefore needs to tighten more. There is no escape from relative austerity. If monetary policy aims at keeping inflation stable in the North and the initial debt is above a certain threshold, debt dynamics are perverse: fiscal retrenchment is self-defeating; If monetary policy targets average inflation instead, which implies higher inflation in the North, the initial debt threshold above which the debt dynamics become perverse is higher. Accepting more inflation at home is therefore a way for the North to contribute to restoring debt sustainability in the South. Structural reforms in the South improve the debt dynamics if the initial debt is not too high. Again, targeting average inflation rather than inflation in the North helps strengthen the favourable effects of structural reforms.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Geldpolitisches Ziel ; Inflation ; Zwei-Länder-Modell ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 14
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The financial crisis has exposed the need to devise stronger and broader international and regional safety nets in order to deal with economic and financial shocks and allow for countries to adjust. The euro area has developed several such mechanisms over the last couple of years through a process of trial and error and gradual enhancement and expansion. Their overall architecture remains imperfect and leaves areas of vulnerabilities. This paper provides an overview of the recent financial stability mechanisms and their various shortcomings and tries to brush the outline of a more comprehensive safety net architecture that would coherently address the banking, sovereign and external imbalances crises against both transitory and more permanent shocks. It aims to provide a roadmap for further improvements of the current mechanism and the creation of new devices including a banking resolution mechanism and amore powerfulmechanismto provide financial assistance addressing both the sovereign and external dimensions of the shocks thereby reducing the need for the ECB to fill the current void.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; financial safety-net ; european crisis ; ESFS ; ESM ; fiscal risk sharing ; Finanzkrise ; Bankenkrise ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; Bankenregulierung ; Schuldenübernahme ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: This paper discusses the creation of a European Banking Union. First, we discuss questions of design. We highlight seven fundamental choices that decision makers will need to make: Which EU countries should participate in the banking union? To which categories of banks should it apply? Which institution should be tasked with supervision? Which one should deal with resolution? How centralised should the deposit insurance system be? What kind of fiscal backing would be required? What governance framework and political institutions would be needed?
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bankenpolitik ; Bankenaufsicht ; Bankensystem ; Einlagensicherung ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Europe's failure to specialise in new ICT sectors and firms is likely to hold back Europe's post-crisis recovery. Europe lacks in particular leading platform providers, who are capturing most of the value in the new ICT ecosystem. In-depth analysis of some specific new emerging ICT sectors shows that the problem in Europe appears not to be so much in the generation of new ideas, but rather in bringing ideas successfully to market. Among the barriers are the lack of a single digital market, fragmented intellectual property regimes, lack of an entrepreneurial culture, limited access to risk capital and an absence of ICT clusters. The EU policy framework, particularly the Innovation Union and Digital Agenda EU 2020 Flagships, could better leverage the growth power for Europe of new ICT markets. The emphasis should move beyond providing support for infrastructure and research, to funding programmes for pre-commercial projects. But perhaps most important is dealing with the fragmentation in European digital markets.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; IKT-Sektor ; Internetportal ; Internetbasierter Dienst ; Telekommunikationspolitik ; Innovationspolitik ; Immaterialgüterrechte ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The European Central Bank's monetary policy addresses the euro-area average inflation rate. By setting conditions for the area as a whole it should ensure symmetric price adjustment. Indeed, consumer price inflation rates provide little evidence of asymmetric adjustment during 2009-11. Only Ireland, which is too small to trigger a symmetric reaction, had significantly lower inflation rates. Some asymmetry is visible in total economy unit labour costs (ULC), but ULC developments are largely disconnected from consumer price inflation. Wage developments have been more symmetric, but are also disconnected from inflation rates. Monetary policy therefore cannot do more to react to the southern euro-area recessions. Rigidities need to be removed so that recessions lead to lower prices. European Commission forecasts suggest that Greek inflation rates can be expected to fall, but Italian and German inflation rates will not adjust in the right direction during 2012-13. Less inflation in Italy and more inflation in Germany are urgently needed.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Inflationsrate ; Anpassung ; Geldpolitik ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The EU is in the process of negotiating its 2014-20 financial framework. Failure to reach an agreement would imply a delay in the preparation of the strategic plans each member state puts together to explain how it will use Structural and Cohesion Funds. Even if solutions are found - for example annual renewals of the budget based on the previous year's figures - there will be political and institutional costs. EU leaders have too often and too forcefully advocated the use of the EU budget for growth to be able to drop the idea without consequences. · The overwhelming attention paid to the size of the budget is misplaced. EU leaders should instead aim to make the EU budget more flexible, safeguard it from future political power struggles, and reinforce assessment of the impact of EU funded growth policies. · To improve flexibility a commitment device should be created that places the EU budget above continuous political disagreement. We suggest the creation of a European Growth Fund, on the basis of which the European Commission should be allowed to borrow on capital markets to anticipate pre-allocated EU expenditure, such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. Markets would thus be a factor in EU budget policymaking, with a potentially disciplining effect. Attaching conditionality to this type of disbursement appears legitimate, as capital delivered in this way is a form of assistance.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Finanzen ; EU-Strukturfonds ; EU-Regionalfonds ; Wachstumspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 19
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Extensive prior research on the economics of European monetary union highlighted some potential risks (the known unknowns) but overlooked others (the unknown unknowns). Asymmetries among participating countries, the potentially destabilising character of a one-size-fits all monetary policy, the weakness of adjustment mechanisms, the lack of incentives for fiscal discipline, the possibility of sovereign solvency crises and their adverse consequences were all known and understood. But policymakers often relied on a complacent reading of the evidence. The potential for financial disruption was vastly underestimated. Economists generally did not consider, or underestimated, the possibility of balance of payment crises such as those experienced by southern European countries, or the risk of a feedback loop between banks and sovereigns. Remedying EMU's systemic deficiencies is on the policy agenda. Banking union would go a long way towards addressing the fault lines. The urgent question for economists is if it is going to be enough and, if not, what else should complement the 'bare-bones' EMU of Maastricht.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Zahlungsbilanz ; Bankenpolitik ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Problems in the banking system are at the core of the current crisis. The establishment of a banking union is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for eventual crisis resolution that respects the integrity of the euro. The European Commission's proposal for the establishment of a Single Supervisory Mechanism and related reform of the European Banking Authority (EBA) do not and cannot create a fully-fledged banking union, but represent a broadly adequate step on the basis of the leaders' declaration of 29 June 2012 and of the decision to use Article 127(6) of the treaty as legal basis. The proposal rightly endows the European Central Bank (ECB) with broad authority over banks within the supervisory mechanism's geographical perimeter; however, the status of non-euro area member states willing to participate in this mechanism, and the governance and decision-making processes of the ECB in this respect, call for further elaboration. Further adjustments are also desirable in the proposed reform of the EBA, even though they must probably retain a stopgap character pending the more substantial review planned in 2014.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bankenpolitik ; Bankenaufsicht ; Bankensystem ; Zentralbank ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The crisis has underlined the strong interdependence between the euro-area banking and sovereign crises. To understand the role domestic banks have played in holding sovereign debt, a breakdown of government debt by holding sectors is required. The data shows that at the start of the crisis, most continental euro-area countries were characterised by the large size of their banks' portfolios of domestic government bonds, which were markedly larger than in the UK or the US. Consequently, concern about sovereign solvency was bound to have major consequences for banks. The structural vulnerability of euro-area countries has increased, reinforcing the sovereign/ banking crisis vicious cycle. All countries for which concerns about state solvency arose in recent years have seen a reversal in the previously steady increase of the share of government debt held by non residents. Germany, by contrast, has seen an increase in the share held by non residents. In the short term, these observations raise a question about the effectiveness of ECB provision of liquidity to banks as a means to alleviate the sovereign crisis. At a point when government bonds are considered risky assets, euro-area banks are faced with both balance sheet and reputational risks compared to their non-euro area counterparts, and may prove reluctant to increase this exposure further. In the longer term, the question is if and how euro-area regulators should set incentives to reduce banks' heavy exposure to sovereigns. This issue should be given more attention in European policy discussions on how to strengthen the euro area.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Bankenkrise ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Five years after the first tremors in Europe's banking system, what makes the crisis unique is the absence of a democratically accountable decision-making framework; there is an 'executive deficit' that compounds Europe's democratic deficit. The author argues that the only way to resolve the crisis successfully is a sustained effort to achieve a 'fourfold union' agenda: banking union, fiscal union, competitiveness union and political union. Progress must be made in parallel on each of the four components. In particular, successful progress towards banking union requires a combination of short term action, including the establishment of a temporary resolution authority to identify undercapitalised banks and to restructure them, and longer-term measures, including the creation of permanent authorities for supervision, resolution and deposit insurance.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Politische Entscheidung ; Finanzpolitik ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Bankenpolitik ; Bankenaufsicht ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 23
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: European Union policymakers have in principle put innovation at the heart of competitiveness, in particular in the Europe 2020 strategy. But in merger control, assessments of the innovation effects of mergers are inadequate, even though mergers and acquisitions can have a significant impact on the development of the structure of an industry, and on its capability to innovate. EU merger control rules include scope for assessing the innovation effects of mergers, but in practice, the European Commission's directorate-general for competition (DG COMP) is not 'walking the talk'. Innovation effects are only assessed when claimed by parties to a merger, and this happens rarely. Where innovation effects have been claimed, they have not been decisive in any case, meaning DG COMP has not considered them important enough to influence its decision. A framework should be put in place that makes the reporting of efficiency-related information by the merging parties mandatory, so that innovation effects can be properly assessed for all mergers. In addition, models can be used to make an assessment of the longer-term innovation effects of a merger, and to help inform decision-making.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Fusionskontrolle ; Innovationsmanagement ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Sectoral shifts, such as shrinkage of low labour productivity and the low-wage construction sector, can lead to apparent increased aggregate average labour productivity and average wages, especially when capital intensity differs across sectors. For 11 main sectors and 13 manufacturing sub-sectors, we quantify the compositional effects on productivity, wages and unit labour costs (ULCs) based and real effective exchange rates (REER), for 24 EU countries. Compositional effects are greatest in Ireland, where the pharmaceutical sector drives the growth of output and productivity, but other sectors have suffered greatly and have not yet recovered. Our new ULC-REER measurements, which are free from compositional effects, correlate well with export performance. Among the countries facing the most severe external adjustment challenges, Lithuania, Portugal and Ireland have been the most successful based on five indicators, and Latvia, Estonia and Greece the least successful. There is evidence of downward wage flexibility in some countries, but wage cuts have corrected just a small fraction of pre-crisis wage rises and came with massive reductions in employment even in the business sector excluding construction and real estate, highlighting the difficulty of adjusting wages downward.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Produktivität ; Arbeitsproduktivität ; Lohn ; Lohnstückkosten ; Verarbeitendes Gewerbe ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The single currency was expected to make balance of payments irrelevant between the euro-area member states. This benign view has been challenged by recent developments, especially as imbalances between euro-area central banks have widened within the TARGET2 settlement system. Current-account developments can be misleading as indicators of financial account developments in countries that receive significant official support. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain experienced significant private-capital inflows from 2002 to 2007-09, followed by unambiguously massive outflows. We show that such reversals qualify as 'sudden stops'. Euro-area sudden-stop episodes were clustered in three periods: the global financial crisis, a period following the agreement of the Greek programme and summer 2011. The timeline suggests contagion effects were present. We find evidence of substitution of the private capital flows with public components. In particular, weak banks in distressed countries took up a major share of the central bank refinancing. The steady divergence of intra Eurosystem net balances mirrors this. In the short term, TARGET2 imbalances could be addressed by tightening collateral requirements for central bank liquidity. For the longer term, the evidence that the euro area has been subject to internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and as an invitation to reform its structures.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht ; Kapitalmobilität ; Internationaler Zahlungsverkehr ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: A drastic change in the way we produce and consume energy is necessary to contain the risk of global environmental catastrophe. For its part, the EU has set agreed to a greenhouse gas reduction target of 80-95 percent by 2050, compared to 1990. However, with the current fuel mix, even the most ambitious improvements on incumbent technologies are unlikely to be sufficient for reaching the reduction targets. Meeting the targets requires low-carbon transition. However, the process of transition will likely be littered with market failures. Hundreds of more-or-less proven low-carbon technologies are competing for market share in the low-carbon system. In order to bring about the transition to a low-carbon energy and transport system at the lowest cost, policymakers should rely as much as possible on private action to choose, develop, and deploy low-carbon technologies. For those market failures that might only be overcome with technology-specific measures, governments should set up a transparent and predictable mechanism for selecting technologies.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Umweltpolitik ; EU-Energiepolitik ; EU-Verkehrspolitik ; Klimaschutz ; Treibhausgas ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: This Policy Contribution assesses the broad obstacles hampering ICT-led growth in Europe and identifies the main areas in which policy could unlock the greatest value. We review estimates of the value that could be generated through take-up of various technologies and carry out a broad matching with policy areas. According to the literature survey and the collected estimates, the areas in which the right policies could unlock the greatest ICT-led growth are product and labour market regulations and the European Single Market. These areas should be reformed to make European markets more flexible and competitive. This would promote wider adoption of modern data-driven organisational and management practices thereby helping to close the productivity gap between the United States and the European Union. Gains could also be made in the areas of privacy, data security, intellectual property and liability pertaining to the digital economy, especially cloud computing, and next generation network infrastructure investment. Standardisation and spectrum allocation issues are found to be important, though to a lesser degree. Strong complementarities between the analysed technologies suggest, however, that policymakers need to deal with all of the identified obstacles in order to fully realise the potential of ICT to spur long-term growth beyond the partial gains that we report.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; IKT-Politik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: This Policy Contribution provides up-to-date evidence of the strong heterogeneity in the relationships between the five biggest EU economies with the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs). Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are still strongly tied to France, Italy and Spain, in terms of investments, financial flows and migration. This pattern is in line with the pattern of sizable French and Spanish official bilateral development assistance for Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. However, the economic connection of Germany, the UK and the US to the western SMCs is negligible. German and US bilateral development assistance is focused in Egypt, while the four other SMCs appear not to be priorities for non-Mediterranean EU countries. These differences cannot be explained by geographical distance alone. The unbalanced economic relationship of the SMCs with a small number of European countries risks exposing the SMCs to shocks in partner countries. Stronger economic ties also results in a higher degree of mutual political attention, as exemplified by bilateral development assistance that flows more strongly between countries with strong economic links. EU external policy is still largely driven by member states' interests. Hence building economic ties between the SMCs and non-traditional EU partners could both improve the SMCs' external economic relationships, and make the SMCs' political relationship with the EU more resilient.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Entwicklungshilfe ; Mittelmeerraum ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The search for solutions to the euro crisis is based on a partial diagnosis that overemphasises the lack of enforcement of existing fiscal rules. Europe's leaders should rather address the euro area's inherent weaknesses revealed by the crisis. At the core of euro-area vulnerability is an impossible trinity of strict no-monetary financing, bank-sovereign interdependence and no co-responsibility for public debt. This Policy Contribution assesses the corresponding three options for reform: a broader European Central Bank (ECB) mandate, the building of a banking federation, and fiscal union with common bonds. None will be easy. The least feasible option is a change to the ECB's mandate; changing market perceptions would require the ECB to credibly commit overwhelming forces, and the ECB is simply not in a position to make such a commitment. The building of a banking federation, meanwhile, involves reforms that are bound to be difficult. Incremental progress is likely, but a breakthrough less so. This leaves fiscal union. It faces major obstacles, but a decision to move in this direction would signal to the markets and ECB a commitment to stronger Economic and Monetary Union. One possibility would be to introduce a limited, experimental scheme through which trust could be rebuilt.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Geldpolitik ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Internationale wirtschaftspolitische Koordination ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 30
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    Unknown
    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The Bank of England, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have responded to the crisis with exceptional initiatives resulting in a major increase in their balance sheets. After the ECB's end-2011 launch of three-year bank refinancing (LTRO), there has been speculation that all three have de facto embarked on 'quantitative easing'. However, major differences remain: the Bank of England and Fed have mostly relied on large-scale purchases of government bonds, while the ECB has relied on lending to financial institutions with repurchase agreements of collateral (repos). The LTRO has successfully mitigated funding needs and reduced interbank stress, and has had a significant impact on sovereign bond yields in southern euro-area countries, and increased southern banks' government debt holdings, while northern banks have reduced sovereign exposure. The LTRO has had only weak effects on funding for households and non-financial corporations; credit dynamics remain weak particularly in the southern euro area. Underlying structural problems relating to banks, the macroeconomic adjustment and the euro area's governance need to be addressed before financial stability and economic growth can return. Monetary policy cannot fundamentally address these problems and is made less effective by economic/institutional heterogeneity.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Geldmarkt ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Geldpolitik ; Zentralbank ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten ; Großbritannien ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 31
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area are highly correlated. This working paper sheds light on the link. We study the stock market performance and the holdings of government debt of the banks stress tested by the European Banking Authority in July and December 2011. Banks’ holdings of the sovereign bonds of vulnerable countries generally decreased during the period December 2010 to September 2011. The average stock market performance of each country’s banks was very uneven. The European Central Bank’s long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) had no material effect on banks’ stock market values in the countries under consideration. Greek debt holdings had an effect on banks’ market values in the period July to October 2011. After October, this effect disappeared. Holdings of Italian and Irish debt had a material effect on banks’ market value in the period October to December 2011. Holdings of debt of other periphery countries, in particular Spain, were not an issue. The July PSI deal did not substantially affect the risk resulting from holdings of debt other than Greek debt. The location of banks matters for their market value. This highlights the need to form a banking union in the euro area.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Länderrisiko ; Bankrisiko ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Kreditderivat ; Bankrechnungslegung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 32
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: As a background document for Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/11 'Compositional effects on productivity, labour cost and export adjustment', this working paper presents detailed results for 24 EU countries on: The sectoral changes in the economy; The unit labour costs (ULC) based real effective exchange (REER) rate and its main components; Export performance. The ULC-REERs are calculated: For the total economy, the business sector (excluding agriculture, construction and real estate activities), and some main sectors; Using both actual aggregates and fixed-weight aggregates, as the latter is free from the impacts of compositional changes; Against 30 trading partners and against three subsets of trading partners: euro-area, non-euro area EU, non-EU.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Strukturwandel ; Lohnstückkosten ; Kaufkraftparität ; Internationale Wirtschaft ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 33
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: This paper investigates the impact of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) at a firm level. Using panel data on the emissions and performance of more than 2000 European firms from 2005 to 2008, we are able to analyse the effectiveness of the scheme. The results suggest that the shift from the first phase (2005-2007) to the second phase (2008-2012) had an impact on the emission reductions carried out by firms. The initial allocation also had a significant impact on emission reduction. This challenges the relevance for the ETS of Coase’s theorem (Coase, 1969), according to which the initial allocation of permits is irrelevant for the post-trading allocation of marketable pollution permits. Finally, we found that the EU ETS had a modest impact on the participating companies’ performance. We conclude that a full auctioning system could help to reduce emissions but could also have a negative impact on the profits of participating companies.
    Keywords: D21 ; C23 ; Q49 ; ddc:330 ; panel data ; energy ; climate change ; evaluation econometrics ; firm behaviour ; Emissionshandel ; EU-Umweltpolitik ; Klimaschutz ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: This paper empirically investigates if corporate governance practices affect the resources firms devote to R&D. Two databases - one on governance ratings and the other on R&D intensity - are merged to obtain a multi-country, multi-sector sample of 279 European companies involved in R&D activities. The relationship is found to be negative: a higher governance score correlates with lower R&D intensity. An executive remuneration system that is linked to the firm's financial performance has a particularly strong negative impact on R&D. This confirms the hypothesis that incentive mechanisms lead managers to focus on more predictable and easily measurable short-term activities, ultimately hampering the commitment to innovative projects. Other factors include the equal treatment of shareholders, the absence of anti-takeover devices and severance pay.
    Keywords: O31 ; O32 ; O33 ; G34 ; ddc:330 ; R&D intensity ; corporate governance ; remuneration ; shareholder rights ; Corporate Governance ; Betriebliche Forschung ; Managervergütung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: Although the United States and the European Union were both seriously impacted by the financial crisis of 2007, the resulting policy debates and regulatory responses have differed considerably on the two sides of the Atlantic. In this paper the authors examine the debates on the problem posed by 'big to fail' financial institutions. They identify variations in historical experiences, financial system structures, and political institutions that help one understand the differences in the approaches of the US, EU member states, and the EU institutions in addressing this problem. The authors then turn to possible remedies and how they may be differentially implemented in America and Europe. They conclude on the policy developments that are likely in the near future.
    Keywords: G01 ; G21 ; G38 ; F36 ; ddc:330 ; banks ; comparative political economy ; financial regulation ; microprudential policy ; too-big-to-fail ; Bankenregulierung ; Finanzmarkt ; Regulierung ; Großbank ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Europe's banking system has been in a state of systemic fragility since 2007-08. The current phase is marked by a sequence of interactions between sovereign problems and banking problems, resulting in gradual contagion to more countriesand more asset classes. The banking and sovereign crises are compounded by acrisis of the European Union institutions. Successful crisis resolution will need to include at least four components at theEuropean level, in addition to steps to be taken by individual countries: fiscalfederalism; banking federalism; a profound overhaul of EU/euro-area institutions;and short-term arrangements that chart a path towards the completion of theprevious three points. These requirements for crisis resolution cannot be met unless political conditionschange sharply in their favour, which leaves the United States and the global economyexposed to the risk of financial contagion. However, only the Europeansthemselves can solve their current predicament.This Policy Contribution reproduces the written statement prepared by the authorfor the hearing on The European debt and financial crisis: origins, options andimplications for the US and global economy at the Subcommittee on Security andInternational Trade and Finance of the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing,and Urban Affairs, on 22 September 2011.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Bankenkrise ; Föderalismus ; Finanzpolitik ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 37
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The European Union growth agenda has become even more pressing because growth is needed to support public and private sector deleveraging, reduce the fragility of the banking sector, counter the falling behind of southern European countries and prove that Europe is still a worthwhile place to invest. The crisis has a similar impact on most European countries and the US: a persistent drop in output level and a growth slowdown. This contrasts sharply with the experience of the emerging countries of Asia and Latin America. Productivity improvement was immediate in the US, but Europe hoarded labour and productivity improvements were in general delayed. Southern European countries have hardly adjusted so far. There is a negative feedback loop between the crisis and growth, and without effective solutions to overturn the crisis, growth is unlikely to resume. National and EU level policies should aim to foster reforms and adjustment and should not risk medium term objectives under the pressure of events. A more hands-on approach, including industrial policies, should be considered. Earlier versions of this Policy Contribution were presented at the Bruegel-PIIE conference on Transatlantic economic challenges in an era of growing multipolarity, Berlin, 27 September 2011, and at the BEPA-Polish Presidency conference on Sources of growth in Europe, Brussels, 6 October 2011.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wachstumspolitik ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Investitionspolitik ; EU-Staaten ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: As policymakers refocus on growth, the ability to take a firm-level view is key to disentangling the various factors at the root of competitiveness, and thus to designing appropriate policies. Firm-level data provides critical information for the design of appropriate competitiveness measures that complement traditional macro analysis. More work remains to be done assembling firm-level information, but the variance of the distribution of firm characteristics already conveys important information in addition to standard averages. New indicators should be developed to translate the distribution of firm characteristics into indicators of competitiveness designed to capture not only average performance but also the heterogeneity of firm performance. This Policy Contribution builds on ongoing research within EFIGE (www.efige.org), a project to help identify the internal policies needed to improve the external competitiveness of the European Union.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Standortfaktor ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 39
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Remedying the European Union's deficient overall business research and development performance requires the nurturing of more new companies in new sectors, enabling them to grow to leading-innovator status. This means addressing young leading innovators' access to external finance, particularly early-stage venture capital. The funding system for aspiring young leading innovators ('yollies') needs to be understood as an interconnected system comprising different types of funding at different stages of company lifecycles. Venture capital funds are critical at the early commercialisation stage. Venture capital investors rely on a good deal flow of high-potential investment-ready firms, on skilled investment managers, and on developed exit markets. Poor returns from early-stage investments in Europe on a smaller deal flow have significantly reduced the appetite for early-stage venture capital. This exodus has left a funding gap in Europe for aspiring yollies. The evidence suggests that there are a number of ineffective public schemes supporting mediocre deals at mediocre funds. Shutting those down would free up enough funding to allow a significant shift towards a more effective venture investing system focused on high quality venture capital and innovative projects from aspiring yollies.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Risikokapital ; Innovationspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 40
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: At the extraordinary EU Council of 21 July European leaders have to accomplish a triple-mission. First, they should pave the way to restoring solvency in Greece by initiating debt reduction. Softening the Greek debt burden implies i) reducing the interest rate on official lending, ii) requesting from the EFSF support for an immediate bond buy-back programme, and iii) asking the ESRB for an immediate evaluation of the risks to financial stability involved in a future restructuring of the sovereign debts in the euro area. Second, they should promote immediate growth-enhancing measures to be financed through unused EU structural funds and EIB loans (€16bn). The available funds shall be used to i) raise the quality of higher education, ii) finance wage subsidies in manufacturing and tourism so as to generate an internal devaluation at contained domestic-demand costs; and ii) create research laboratories (i.e. lighthouse innovation projects) that would support an upgrading of the Greek value chain. Third, they should address risks to financial stability in the euro zone by breaking the vicious circle between sovereign debt and banking risk. The EFSF should be able to guarantee national deposit insurance schemes; at the same time, the European Banking Authority should assume stronger supervisory powers. This is an immediate action plans but of course more ambitious reforms are necessary down the road.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Politik ; Politisches Ziel ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Wachstumspolitik ; Bankenkrise ; Krisenmanagement ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Jean-Claude Trichet deserves praise for fighting inflation and his handling of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. But his legacy is unfinished and we still have to see whether he will be the one who saved the euro. Important challenges remain for the incoming president. First, trust of citizens in the ECB has fallenmassively according to the Eurobarometer survey inmany euro area countries, including Germany and Greece. Trust needs to be regained. Second, the ECB's stance on Greece needs to be reversed both as regards financial sector participation and SMP. The SMP for Italy can be justified but can only be a temporary solution. The ECB will therefore have to further push for a fiscal lender-of-last-resort back-stop that can also exercise conditionality. Third, a rate cut should be considered at this point in time but upcoming political pressure to increase inflation needs to be resisted.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Zentralbank ; Geldpolitik ; Finanzmarktkrise ; EU-Politik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: The European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the proposed prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances regulation (EIP) are designed to avoid imbalances. However, these instruments overlap, and need clarification. Both the ESRB and the Commission, which is given certain powers by the EIP, must identify and act early on risks. Acting in the face of strong economic and political pressure is difficult. Complementing the current approach with transparent and rules-based mechanisms will reduce this problem. The EIP and ESRB can complement each other in terms of analysis and policy, and close collaboration will be vital. The EIP regulation can be used to ensure that ESRB recommendations are followed up. In the area of financial recommendations relevent to macroeconomic imbalances, the Commission should have a more formal requirement to act on ESRB recommendations. The EIP regulation would benefit from a clause allowing recommendations to be addressed not only to member states. Conflicts between the ESRB and Commission could arise. In this case, the Treaty requires the Commission to issue a recommendation even if the ESRB issues a negative finding. Legally, it might not be possible to exclude the use by the Commission of confidential information obtained in the ESRB.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Politik ; Gleichgewichtiges Wachstum ; Finanzpolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 43
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Development and deployment of clean-energy technologies is crucial if climate targets are to be met cost-effectively. The European Union already has a plan that deals with these issues: the Strategic Energy Technology Plan, which has become central to the achievement of the EU's ambitions. In a period of constrained public finances, if governments want to leverage the necessary private innovation for clean-energy technologies, they will have to provide well-designed time-consistent policies, reducing commercial and financial risk through a combination of consistent carbon pricing, regulations and public funding, which will have to give a sizable and consistent push to early-stage clean-energy technologies, with a clear exit strategy. But first and foremost, governments should establish a sufficiently high and long-term predictable carbon price. The design of the EU emissions trading system and the distribution of carbon allowances should take into account more explicitly its power to leverage innovation. A move to a 30 percent EU emissions reduction target, which would involve a tighter emissions cap and fewer allowances being auctioned, would result would result in a higher carbon price and provide greater incentives for innovation.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Klimaveränderung ; Umweltpolitik ; Ökosteuer ; Investitionspolitik ; Regenerative Energie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 44
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Credit rating agencies (CRAs) have not consistently met the expectations placed on them by investors and policymakers. It is difficult, however, to improve the quality of ratings through regulatory initiatives. In the short term, changes to the CRAs' regulatory environment, in a context of high market uncertainty, may add to market stress. The role of credit ratings in regulation should be reduced but eliminating it entirely would have significant downsides, at least in the short term. The transfer of ratings responsibility to public authorities, including the European Central Bank, is unlikely to be a good alternative because of inherent conflicts of interest. The notion of risk-free sovereign bonds is challenged by the crisis, but the most straightforward way to address this challenge in the euro-area context would be the establishment of a euro-area-wide sovereign bond instrument. This Policy Contribution was prepared as a briefing paper for the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee's Monetary Dialogue.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Ratingagentur ; Länderrisiko ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-02-28
    Description: Stress in the interbank market has increased dramatically since July and bank stock market valuation has fallen by 22 percent on average for 60 of the most important banks tested in the EBA stress tests. I find evidence that bank stock valuation is significantly and economically meaningfully affected by the bank's exposure to Greek debt. Greek banks are particularly affected. Holdings of debt of the other four periphery countries does not however appear to be a strong determinant of stock price movements. Policy announcements of 21 July of no haircut on any sovereign but Greece appear to be perceived as credible. The exposure to Greece cannot explain the general and large decline in euro area banks' market cap. Instead, a general confidence crisis of the euro area banking system, or more deeply the euro area construction, might be driving the fall in stock prices. The summit of 23 October should focus on restoring confidence in euro-area policymakers' ability and determination to put the euro area on a sound footing. Recapitalisation of banks can only be only one aspect. A credible solution to Greece and a way forward for the larger institutional set-up, including a federal fiscal back-stop of the banking system, are of at least equal importance.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationaler Finanzmarkt ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Geldmarkt ; Bankinsolvenz ; EU-Staaten ; Griechenland
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The response in 2008-09 to the global financial crisis was in many ways a high water mark for transatlantic policy coordination. The major economies of the EU and the US rapidly agreed on a series of measures to limit the crisis. However, the common approach has since unraveled. This paper explores why the 'London consensus' has not survived for much more than a year. We identify four non-competing explanations: (a) divergence in economic developments, especially the productivity response to the recession; (b) domestic political economy factors, notably the pressure to act against unemployment in the US; (c) differences in beliefs as regards the nature of the recovery from the common shock, about which there is much more supplyside optimism in the US ; (d) institutional factors such as the lack of a central fiscal authority in the EU. In response to this situation we suggest a critical quantum of coordination. Key measures include a commitment to avoiding deliberate currency depreciation and unilateral intervention; agreement to give the IMF an enhanced monitoring role; the adoption by parliaments of medium-term fiscal plans ; and cooperation on the issue of Chinese undervaluation.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzkrise ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Geldpolitik ; Finanzpolitik ; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 47
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The European Semester is a new institutional process that provides EU member states with ex-ante guidance on fiscal and structural objectives. The Semester’s goals are ambitious and it is still uncertain how it will fit into the new EU economic governance framework. We find that member states are only slowly internalising the new procedure. Furthermore, the Semester has so far lacked legitimacy due to the minor role assigned to the European Parliament, the marginal involvement of national parliaments and the lack of transparency of the process at some stages. Finally, there remains room to clarify the implications from a unified legal text. In fact, diluting the legal separation of recommendations on National Reform Programmes and Council opinions on Stability and Convergence Programmes may compromise effective surveillance and governance. The European Parliament has an important role to play. It needs hold the Commission and the Council accountable. This and the overall objective of enhancing the new procedure’s effectiveness and legitimacy can be done by means of a regular Economic Dialogue on the Semester.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: With a unique data set summarizing the quality of rules-based fiscal governance in EU member states, we show that stronger fiscal rules in euro area members reduce sovereign risk premia, in particular in times of market stress. To do so, we develop a model of sovereign spreads that are determined by the probability of default in interaction with the level of risk aversion. Estimation of the model con firms the central predictions. The legal base of the rules and their enforcement mechanisms are the most important dimensions of rules-based fiscal governance.
    Keywords: E43 ; E62 ; G12 ; H60 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal governance ; numerical fiscal rules ; sovereign spreads ; sovereign risk ; euro area ; Finanzpolitik ; Regelbindung ; Länderrisiko ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 49
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: This paper develops a methodology to compare the quality of examination services in different patent offices. Quality is defined as the extent to which patent offices comply with their patentability conditions in a transparent way. The methodology consists of a two-layer analytical framework encompassing 'legal standards' and their 'operational design', which includes several interdependent components that affect the stringency and transparency of the filtering process. The comparison of patent offices in Europe (EPO), Japan (JPO) and the US (USPTO) shows that their operational designs differ substantially: the EPO provides higher-quality and more expensive services than the USPTO, while the JPO is in an intermediate position. These results illustrate that different system designs lead to different outcomes in terms of backlogs, patent propensity and the number of dubious patent rights in force. In this respect, these findings: 1) provide an empirical validation of Jaffe and Lerner's (2004) conjecture of a vicious cycle linking the quality of examination and demand for patents; and 2) highlight the need for a multi-faceted convergence of patent systems before mutual recognition is put in place.
    Keywords: O30 ; O31 ; O34 ; O38 ; O57 ; ddc:330 ; patent system ; quality ; patent propensity ; intellectual property ; Patentrecht ; Organisationsstruktur ; Dienstleistungsqualität ; Patent ; Immaterialgüterrechte ; EU-Staaten ; Japan ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 50
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: There were fears in the European Union that eastern enlargement would lead to major job losses and transfers. More recently, these fears have extended to high-skilled and IT jobs. This paper examines using unique firm-level data if these fears are justified for Austria and Germany. We find that eastern enlargement has led to job losses of less than 0.5 percent of total employment in Germany and of 1.5 percent in Austria. Low-cost jobs in affiliates in eastern Europe help Austrian and German firms stay competitive in an increasingly competitive environment. However, we also find that multinational firms in Austria and Germany are outsourcing skill-intensive activities to eastern Europe, taking advantage of cheap and abundant skilled labour there. This is a response to a human capital scarcity in Austria and Germany, which became particularly severe in the 1990s. We find a reverse pattern of ‘maquiladoras’ (a phenomenon seen in the United States and Mexico) between Austria and Germany and their eastern neighbours. Skilled workers in Austria and Germany are losing out from outsourcing. In both countries, outsourcing contributes 35 percent and 41 percent, respectively, to changes in relative wages for skilled workers in Austria and Germany. To address the skill exodus to eastern Europe, we suggest liberalising the movement of high-skilled workers.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Auslandsverlagerung ; Auslandsverlagerung ; Hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Standortwettbewerb ; EU-Erweiterung ; Beschäftigungseffekt ; Deutschland ; Österreich ; EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) ; Migrationspolitik ; Arbeitsmigration ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 51
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: The reform of euro area governance has been chosen by the heads of state and government in the EU as a topic for immediate discussion and swift decisions. The European Council in Spring 2010 asked president Van Rompuy to chair a task force on euro area governance. The task force is due to deliver a progress report to the June 2010 European Council. Any serious discussion on it must start from an analysis of what went wrong.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Good Governance ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Finanzpolitik ; Dezentralisierung ; EU-Stabilitätspakt ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 52
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: In this paper, Nicolas Veron argues that the EU regulatory response to the crisis has been generally slower in the EU than in the United States, for four main reasons: swifter financial crisis management and resolution in the US; structural differences in legislative processes; the EU's front-loading of institutional reform, most notably the creation of European Supervisory Authorities; and the timetable of renewal of the European Commission in 2009-10. The EU has nevertheless initiated or completed significant regulatory initiatives in terms of banking, market structures, private equity and hedge funds, rating agencies and accounting. However, major further challenges loom.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzmarkt ; Regulierung ; Aufsichtsbehörde ; Bankenpolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 53
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: In this paper, Benedicta Marzinotto and Jörg Rocholl focus on the tightening of credit conditions for banking rules (Basel III), particularly the estimated macroeconomic costs range, monetary policy and the aggregate costs of the measures. The authors report that the monetary policy response to these changes is not likely to be accommodating and that the aggregate costs of the measures will be differently distributed across countries depending on a variety of issues.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bankenpolitik ; Basel II ; Eigenkapitalvorschriften ; Bankenliquidität ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 54
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Senior Resident Fellows Reinhilde Veugelers and Bruno van Pottelsberghe provide recommendations for the term of new Digital Agenda Commissioner Neelie Kroes in this supplement to Bruegel's Memos to the New Commission: Europe's Economic Priorities 2010-2015. They argue that Kroes should move past a focus on infrastructure and concentrate more on ICT's potential to contribute to growth in the European Union. This should include a focus on emerging ICT products and services to helpl foster an ICT single market and more public support for R&D and innovation, through tailored programmes designed to aid high-risk innovative projects conceived by new ICT companies.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Informationstechnik ; Forschungs- und Technologiepolitik ; Innovationspolitik ; Telekommunikationspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 55
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Drawing comparisons between the fiscal architecture and situation in the US and the European Union, Bruegel Research Fellow Zsolt Darvas answers three questions in this Policy Contribution- Why has the euro been hit so hard? How would a more federal European fiscal union closer to the US model have helped? How do the euro area's fiscal architecture reform plans stand up in light of the US example? He concludes that a higher level of fiscal federation is not inevitable for the viability of the euro area, but current European fiscal reform proposals carry political risk and their implementation could be deficient or lack credibility. Introduction of a Eurobond covering up to 60 percent of member states' GDP would be a much more preferable solution.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzföderalismus ; Euro-Anleihe ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 56
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Innovation is key to the future of Europe. This Policy Contribution, written together by Mathias Dewatripont, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management; Bruno van Pottelsberghe and André Sapir, Senior Fellows at Bruegel and professors at ULB; and Reinhilde Veugelers, senior fellow at Bruegel and professor at Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, makes suggestions based on three principles: to give primacy to merit-based selection of projects at the European level, to strengthen the single market to make it conducive for research and innovation and to remove barriers that hinder dynamic restructuring. This paper is addressed to the July 2010 informal Competitiveness Council (Research) under the Belgian Presidency.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Innovationspolitik ; Europäische Forschungs- und Technologiepolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 57
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Jean Pisani-Ferry discusses the emergence of China as a key economic and global player from a European perspective. Looking ahead, this paper focuses on two key aspects, the rebalancing of global growth and the strengthening of global governance, and explains how these will shape Sino-European economic relations. The author argues that now is the time for high-quality dialogue between policymakers from both sides. China and the European Union must overcome their institutional differences to pave the way for fruitful economic cooperation.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Internationale wirtschaftspolitische Koordination ; Global Governance ; China ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 58
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: Innovation in the European Union remains weak and there are relatively few signs of progress. In this policy contribution, Reinhilde Veugelers and Michele Cincera give evidence to show that compared to the US, the EU has fewer young firms among its leading innovators and the primary driver of this private R&D gap is due to the fact that young leading innovators in the EU are less R&D intensive than their US counterparts. This paper complements the Bruegel policy brief, Europe's missing yollies.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Industrielle Forschung ; Innovation ; Innovationspolitik ; Europäische Forschungs- und Technologiepolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 59
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: In this paper, original written for the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee (ECON) of the European Parliament on 30 November as part of the series entitled 'The threat of currency wars: global imbalances and their effects on currencies', Bruegel Fellows Jean Pisani-Ferry and Zsolt Darvas argue that the currency war has three manifestations: 1) the inflexible pegs of undervalued currencies; 2) attempts by floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation; 3) quantitative easing. Europe should primarily be concerned about the first issue, which relates to the renewed debate about the international monetary system.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Wechselkurs ; Währungspolitik ; Wechselkurspolitik ; Internationales Währungssystem ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 60
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: The financial crisis exposed Europe's inadequacy in developing an effective banking resolution framework that could bring together national authorities and set guidelines for their coordination. The European Commission, through its assessment of state aid cases, managed to avoid single market distortions and mitigate moral hazard. This Policy Contribution explains why in the long-term Europe needs a single resolution authority. The authors Bruegel Senior Research Fellow André Sapir, Mathias Dewatripont, ULB and CEPR; Gregory Nguyen, National Bank of Belgium, and Peter Praet, National Bank of Belgium, show how in the short-term, the European Commission, through its state aid control discipline, can set the foundation for a new crisis resolution architecture. It can act as a substitute to improve coordination among member states and complement a European resolution authority once it is set up.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bankenpolitik ; Bankenaufsicht ; Bankenkrise ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 61
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The European Union was institutionally ill-prepared to manage the 2007-2008 financial crisis, with an inadequate architecture for resolving problems within the European single financial market. Throughout the period 2007-2009 the situation in the EU has been characterised by a lingering lack of transparency, not only vis-à-vis market participants and the public, but also among policy-making institutions. Management of coordination has been ad hoc, but, remarkably, it has not been impeded by the divide between the euro area, and the main financial centre of London. Crisis management has mostly taken place according to the assignment of competences in the EU: the European Central Bank and national central banks have provided liquidity in their respective jurisdictions, national governments have stepped in to ensure financial stability, and the European Commission has enforced competition disciplines. So far, policy performance has been better than expected given the sub-optimal nature of EU financial institutional arrangements.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bankenkrise ; Finanzsystem ; Marktintegration ; Krisenmanagement ; Bankenregulierung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 62
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: The EU budget review process will restart as we approach the end of the current financial framework 2007-2013. This paper traces the history of the EU budget and draws lessons for the review to come. Whatever reforms are proposed, they must serve to shift spending to policy areas and instruments where the EU can best add value while at the same time recognising the political need for member states to present EU budget negotiation results in ‘net-balance’ terms. A two-stage negotiation is proposed: first member states should negotiate and agree on what constitute EU public goods, to be financed in proportion to GNI shares. Everything else would thereafter - by default - be deemed redistributive/compensatory spending to be financed, at least at the start, on the basis of member states’ current overall net balances.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Öffentlicher Haushalt ; Haushaltsplanung ; Politische Entscheidung ; Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Öffentliche Güter ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 63
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: This paper explores the influence of the economic cycle on labour mobility within the EU, focusing on the likely impact of the present economic crisis. To do so, we use an econometrically calibrated simulation and a case study of Ireland. We find that, in the short run, the crisis is likely to lead to a somewhat lower stock of migrants from the new member states in the EU15 than would have been the case without the crisis on account of diminished job opportunities for migrants. By contrast, in the longer run the crisis might lead to a moderate increase in migration from some of the new member states compared to what would have been the case without the crisis. The latter is driven by the observation that the crisis may have undermined the economic growth model of some of the new member states, thereby slowing down their economic catching-up process.
    Keywords: F22 ; C33 ; J61 ; O11 ; O15 ; O24 ; ddc:330 ; labour mobility ; economic cycle ; crisis ; European Union ; Arbeitsmigration ; Konjunktur ; EU-Erweiterung ; Wirtschaftskrise ; Panel ; Regression ; Simulation ; EU-Staaten ; Irland
    Language: English
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  • 64
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2013-08-02
    Description: For more than 40 years, governments and professional associations have acted, voted or lobbied against the implementation of the Community Patent (COMPAT). The econometric results and simulations presented in this paper suggest that, thanks to its attractiveness in terms of market size and a sound renewal fee structure, the COMPAT would drastically reduce the relative patenting costs for applicants while generating more income for the European Patent Office and most national patent offices. The loss of economic rents (€400 million would be lost by patent attorneys, translators and lawyers) and the drop of controlling power by national patent offices elucidate further the observed resistance to the Community Patent.
    Keywords: O34 ; O38 ; P14 ; ddc:330 ; patent systems ; community patent ; patenting cost ; renewal fees ; maintenance rate ; Patentrecht ; EU-Recht ; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 65
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    Brussels: Bruegel
    Publication Date: 2018-06-21
    Description: In response to the financial and economic crisis, central banks, unlike in the 1930s, have created enormous amounts of money. There are fears that this will lead to inflation, but it is base money (the central bank's liabilities) that has expanded; total monetary aggregates have not. By contrast, in the 1930s, base money remained stable and monetary aggregates dropped. The reason for this is that in a crisis the relationship between the base money and monetary aggregates is altered. The money multiplier drops. It is therefore necessary to create more base money so that monetary aggregates remain stable. This is what central banks have done in the current crisis and rightly so. They have learned the lessons of the Great Depression. This framework helps understand differences across countries. The crisis affected the euro area money and credit supply process much less than the US and the UK. Therefore, the European Central Bank was right to respond to the crisis with a less expansionary monetary policy than the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. However, stabilising the money supply may not have been enough to stabilise the supply of credit.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Geldbasis ; Monetäres Aggregat ; Multiplikator ; Geldpolitik ; Zentralbank ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 66
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    Brussels: Bruegel