WILBERT

Wildauer Bücher+E-Medien Recherche-Tool

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • EU-Staaten  (396)
  • Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)  (396)
  • English  (396)
  • Romanian
Collection
Keywords
Language
  • English  (396)
  • Romanian
Years
  • 1
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-06
    Description: We quantify the role of financial factors behind the sluggish post-crisis performance of European firms. We use a firm-bank-sovereign matched database to identify separate roles for firm and bank balance sheet weaknesses arising from changes in sovereign risk and aggregate demand conditions. We find that firms with higher debt levels and a higher share of short-term debt reduce their investment more after the crisis. This negative effect is stronger for firms linked to weak banks with exposures to sovereign risk, signifying increased rollover risk. These financial channels explain about 60% of the decline in aggregate corporate investment.
    Keywords: E22 ; E32 ; E44 ; F34 ; F36 ; G32 ; ddc:330 ; Firm Investment ; Debt Maturity ; Rollover Risk ; Bank-Sovereign Nexus ; Finanzkrise ; Unternehmensfinanzierung ; Verbindlichkeiten ; Investition ; Investitionsrisiko ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-02
    Description: This paper provides evidence on the role of non-base wage components as a channel for firms to adjust labour costs in the event of adverse shocks. It uses data from a firm-level survey for 25 European countries that covers the period 2010-2013. We find that firms subject to nominal wage rigidities, which prevent them from adjusting base wages, are more likely to cut non-base wage components in order to adjust labour costs when needed. Firms thus use non-base wage components as a buffer to overcome base wage rigidity. We further show that while non-base wage components exhibit some degree of downward rigidity, they do so to a lesser extent than base wages.
    Keywords: J30 ; J32 ; C81 ; P5 ; ddc:330 ; downward nominal wage rigidity ; bonuses ; firm survey ; European Union ; Lohnrigidität ; Leistungsentgelt ; Arbeitskosten ; Schock ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2018-03-16
    Description: Against the backdrop of continuing adjustment in EU labour markets in response to the Great Recession and the sovereign debt crisis, the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) conducted the third wave of the Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) survey in 2014-15 as a follow-up to the two previous WDN waves carried out in 2007 and 2009. The WDN survey collected information on wage-setting practices at the firm level. This third wave sampled about 25,000 firms in 25 European countries with the aim of assessing how firms adjusted wages and employment in response to the various shocks and labour market reforms that took place in the European Union (EU) during the period 2010-13. This paper summarises the main results of WDN3 by identifying some patterns in firms' adjustments and labour market reforms. It seeks to lay out the main lessons learnt from the survey in terms of both the general response of EU labour markets to the crisis and how these responses varied across the countries that took part in the survey.
    Keywords: E24 ; J30 ; J52 ; J68 ; ddc:330 ; Wage Dynamics Network ; Survey data ; Labour market adjustment ; Labour market reforms ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Schuldenkrise ; Schock ; Arbeitskosten ; Lohnrigidität ; Arbeitsmarktreform ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Europe’s financial structure has become strongly bank-based – far more so than in other economies. We document that an increase in the size of the banking system relative to equity and private bond markets is associated with more systemic risk and lower economic growth, particularly during housing market crises. We argue that these two phenomena arise owing to an amplification mechanism, by which banks overextend and misallocate credit when asset prices rise, and ration it when they drop. The paper concludes by discussing policy solutions to Europe’s “bank bias”, which include reducing regulatory favouritism towards banks, while simultaneously supporting the development of securities markets.
    Keywords: G1 ; G2 ; ddc:330 ; bank regulation ; banks ; financial structure ; systemic risk ; Bank ; Finanzsystem ; Kapitalstruktur ; Systemrisiko ; Bankenregulierung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We compare the labour market response to region-specific shocks in Europe and the US and to national shocks in Europe and investigate changes over time. We employ a multi-level factor model to decompose regional labour market variables and then estimate the dynamic response of the employment level, the employment rate and the participation rate using the region-specific variables and the country factors. We find that both in Europe and the US labour mobility accounts for about 50% of the long run adjustment to region-specific labour demand shocks and only a little more in the US than in Europe, where adjustment takes twice as long. In Europe labour mobility is a less important adjustment mechanism in response to country-specific labour demand shocks that cause stronger and more persistent reactions of the employment and the participation rate. However, we detect a convergence of the adjustment processes in Europe and the US, reflecting both a fall in interstate migration in the US and a rise in the role of migration in Europe. Finally, we show that part of the difference between Europe and the US in previous studies may be due to the use of different data sources.
    Keywords: F2 ; J6 ; R23 ; R30 ; ddc:330 ; European integration ; labour mobility ; migration ; regional labour markets ; Arbeitsmobilität ; Regionaler Arbeitsmarkt ; Arbeitsmigranten ; Vergleich ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We use realised variances and co-variances based on intraday data from Eurozone sovereign bond market to measure the dependence structure of eurozone sovereign yields. Our analysis focuses on the impact of news, obtained from the Eurointelligence newsflash, on the dependence structure. More news raises the volatility of interest rates of financially distressed countries and decreases the covariance of distressed countries' yields with German bond yields, suggesting a flight-to-quality effect. Common news about the euro crisis and news about specific countries itself tend to raise the covariance of yields between distressed countries, indicating potential crisis spillover effects. However, we do not detect spillover effects from news about third countries to the covariance between other country pairs. Bond purchases by the ECB under its Securities Markets Programme (SMP) mitigate the negative crisis spillovers among the distressed countries and reduce the flight-to-safety from the distressed countries to Germany.
    Keywords: E62 ; G01 ; G12 ; G15 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; crisis ; eurozone ; realized covariances ; SMP ; sovereign debt ; Spillovers ; Rendite ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Varianzanalyse ; Wirtschaftsinformation ; Schuldenkrise ; Offenmarktpolitik ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 7
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: This occasional paper explores the Consolidated Banking Data (CBD), a key component of the ECB statistical toolbox for financial stability analysis. We show that non-consolidated, host-country Monetary Financial Institutions (MFI) balance sheet data, which constitutes a key source of input into monetary analysis, are a rather weak proxy for consolidated, home-country data and therefore cannot easily substitute CBD for the purposes of macro-prudential assessment. In addition, it is argued that, notwithstanding the relevance of large banks, medium-sized and small banks must also be taken into account in financial stability analysis, given their relevance in several EU countries and their different business models. A discussion follows on how aggregate data, broken down by bank size, can be used to complement micro data, in particular by signalling where and what to look for, again highlighting the differences between large banks on the one hand and small and mediumsized banks on the other.
    Keywords: E13 ; E31 ; E50 ; ddc:330 ; banking indicators ; consolidated banking data ; macro-prudential analysis ; Finanzsystem ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Bankrechnungslegung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: Financial integration in some segments of the financial markets started to deteriorate during the recent period of economic turmoil in Europe. This paper examines whether this phenomenon also holds true for the European retail payments market. In comparison with other segments of the financial markets, the integration of the retail payments market has been more difficult to quantify, and the effects of recent developments – including the creation of the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) and the economic crisis – have been hard to evaluate using existing measures of integration. As an indicator of financial integration, convergence in the European retail payments market is measured during the period 1995-2011 for the most used retail payment instruments: cash, debit card, credit card, direct debit, credit transfer, cheque and e-money. Two methods for estimating convergence are used: sigma convergence and beta convergence. There is some evidence of convergence for all payment instruments, except for cheques and e-money. The results suggest that the cross-country dispersion of the use of payment instruments has declined over time in Europe. The pace of convergence has picked up since the introduction of the single currency. There is also some evidence of beta convergence. In contrast to some other segments of the financial markets, integration in the retail payments market has not deteriorated during the financial crisis.
    Keywords: E12 ; E22 ; E47 ; ddc:330 ; convergence ; financial integration ; retail payments ; Bargeldloser Zahlungsverkehr ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 9
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: Islamic finance is based on ethical principles in line with Islamic religious law. Despite its low share of the global financial market, Islamic finance has been one of this sector’s fastest growing components over the last decades and has gained further momentum in the wake of the financial crisis. The paper examines the development of and possible prospects for Islamic finance, with a special focus on Europe. It compares Islamic and conventional finance, particularly as concerns risks associated with the operations of respective institutions, as well as corporate governance. The paper also analyses empirical evidence comparing Islamic and conventional financial institutions with regard to their: (i) efficiency and profitability; and (ii) stability and resilience. Finally, the paper considers the conduct of monetary policy in an Islamic banking context. This is not uncomplicated given the fact that interest rates – normally a cornerstone of monetary policy – are prohibited under Islamic finance. Liquidity management issues are thus discussed here, with particular reference to the euro area.
    Keywords: G21 ; G28 ; G34 ; K21 ; L4 ; ddc:330 ; central bank monetary policy and regulations ; Financial Institutions ; Globalisation ; slamic finance ; Islamisches Finanzsystem ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 10
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: This paper analyses the transmission of financial shocks to the macroeconomy. The role of macro-financial linkages is investigated from an empirical perspective for the euro area as a whole, for individual euro area member countries and for other EU and OECD countries. The following key economic questions are addressed: 1) Which financial shocks have the largest impact on output over the full sample on average? 2) Are financial developments leading real activity? 3) Is there heterogeneity or a common pattern in macro-financial linkages across the euro area and do these linkages vary over time? 4) Do cross-country spillovers matter? 5) Is the transmission of financial shocks different during episodes of high stress than it is in normal times, i.e. is there evidence of non-linearities? In summary, it is found that real asset prices are significant leading indicators of real activity whereas the latter leads loan developments. Furthermore, evidence is presented that macro-financial linkages are heterogeneous across countries – despite persistent commonalities – and time-varying. Moreover, they differ between euro area and other countries. Results also indicate that cross-country spillovers matter. Finally, important non-linearities in the transmission of financial shocks are documented, as the evidence suggests that the transmission differs in episodes of high stress compared with normal times.
    Keywords: C43 ; D11 ; ddc:330 ; Financial shocks ; heterogeneity ; lead-lag relationships ; macro-financial linkages ; Finanzkrise ; Schock ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten ; OECD-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 11
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: The use of macro stress tests to assess bank solvency has developed rapidly over the past few years. This development was reinforced by the financial crisis, which resulted in substantial losses for banks and created general uncertainty about the banking sector's loss-bearing capacity. Macro stress testing has proved a useful instrument to help identify potential vulnerabilities within the banking sector and to gauge its resilience to adverse developments. To support its contribution to safeguarding financial stability and its financial sector-related work in the context of EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programmes, and looking ahead to the establishment of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the ECB has developed a top-down macro stress testing framework that is used regularly for forward-looking bank solvency assessments. This paper comprehensively presents the main features of this framework and illustrates how it can be employed for various policy analysis purposes.
    Keywords: C32 ; E60 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; banking sector ; financial crisis ; macro stress test ; macro-prudential policy ; Systemic risk ; Finanzkrise ; Bankenliquidität ; Systemrisiko ; Bankenaufsicht ; Finanzmarktaufsicht ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 12
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper examines the quality of credit ratings assigned to banks in Europe and the United States by the three largest rating agencies over the past two decades. We interpret credit ratings as relative assessments of creditworthiness, and define a new ordinal metric of rating error based on banks’ expected default frequencies. Our results suggest that rating agencies assign more positive ratings to large banks and to those institutions more likely to provide the rating agency with additional securities rating business (as indicated by private structured credit origination activity). These competitive distortions are economically significant and contribute to perpetuate the existence of ‘too-big-to-fail’ banks. We also show that, overall, differential risk weights recommended by the Basel accords for investment grade banks bear no significant relationship to empirical default probabilities.
    Keywords: G21 ; G23 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; conflicts of interest ; credit ratings ; Prudential Regulation ; rating agencies ; Bank ; Kreditwürdigkeit ; Dienstleistungsqualität ; Ratingagentur ; USA ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 13
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: Shadow banking, as one of the main sources of financial stability concerns, is the subject of much international debate. In broad terms, shadow banking refers to activities related to credit intermediation and liquidity and maturity transformation that take place outside the regulated banking system. This paper presents a first investigation of the size and the structure of shadow banking within the euro area, using the statistical data sources available to the ECB/Eurosystem. Although overall shadow banking activity in the euro area is smaller than in the United States, it is significant, at least in some euro area countries. This is also broadly true for some of the components of shadow banking, particularly securitisation activity, money market funds and the repo markets. This paper also addresses the interconnection between the regulated and the non-bank-regulated segments of the financial sector. Over the recent past, this interconnection has increased, likely resulting in a higher risk of contagion across sectors and countries. Euro area banks now rely more on funding from the financial sector than in the past, in particular from other financial intermediaries (OFIs), which cover shadow banking entities, including securitisation vehicles. This source of funding is mainly shortterm and therefore more susceptible to runs and to the drying-up of liquidity. This finding confirms that macro-prudential authorities and supervisors should carefully monitor the growing interlinkages between the regulated banking sector and the shadow banking system. However, an in-depth assessment of the activities of shadow banking and of the interconnection with the regulated banking system would require further improvements in the availability of data and other sources of information.
    Keywords: C22 ; E27 ; ddc:330 ; Bank Regulation ; repo markets ; securitisation ; Shadow banking ; Finanzintermediation ; Investmentbank ; Finanzsektor ; Geldpolitik ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Systemrisiko ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 14
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: The European Central Bank (ECB) carried out a study of the social and private costs of different payment instruments with the participation of 13 national central banks in the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). It shows that the costs to society of providing retail payment services are substantial. On average, they amount to almost 1% of GDP for the sample of participating EU countries. Half of the social costs are incurred by banks and infrastructures, while the other half of all costs are incurred by retailers. The social costs of cash payments represent nearly half of the total social costs, while cash payments have on average the lowest costs per transaction, followed closely by debit card payments. However, in some countries, cash does not always yield the lowest unit costs. Despite countries’ own market characteristics, the European market for retail payments can be grouped into fi ve distinct payment clusters with respect to the social costs of payment instruments, market development, and payment behaviour. The results from the present study may trigger a constructive debate about which policy measures and payment instruments are suitable for improving social welfare and realising potential cost savings along the transaction value chain.
    Keywords: D84 ; E43 ; E52 ; ddc:330 ; Efficiency ; Payment instruments ; private costs ; Social costs ; Soziale Kosten ; Zahlungsverkehr ; Bargeldloser Zahlungsverkehr ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 15
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We seek to quantify the impact on euro area GDP of the European Economic Recovery Plan (EERP) enacted in response to the financial crisis of 2008-09. To do so, we estimate an extended version of the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a richly specified fiscal sector. The estimation results point to the existence of important complementarities between private and government consumption and, to a lesser extent, between private and public capital. We first examine the implied present-value multipliers for seven distinct fiscal instruments and show that the estimated complementarities result in fiscal multipliers larger than one for government consumption and investment. We highlight the importance of monetary accommodation for these findings. We then show that the EERP, if implemented as initially enacted, had a sizeable, although short-lived impact on euro area GDP. Since the EERP comprised both revenue and expenditurebased fiscal stimulus measures, the total multiplier is below unity.
    Keywords: C11 ; E32 ; E62 ; ddc:330 ; Bayesian inference ; DSGE modelling ; euro area ; European Economic Recovery Plan ; fiscal multiplier ; Fiscal Policy ; Antizyklische Finanzpolitik ; Konjunktur ; Multiplikator ; DSGE-Modell ; Bayes-Statistik ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 16
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Public deficit figures are subject to revisions, as most macroeconomic aggregates are. Nevertheless, in the case of Europe, the latter could be particularly worrisome given the role of fiscal data in the functioning of EU’s multilateral surveillance rules. Adherence to such rules is judged upon initial releases of data, in the framework of the so-called Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) Notifications. In addition, the lack of reliability of fiscal data may hinder the credibility of fiscal consolidation plans. In this paper we document the empirical properties of revisions to annual government deficit figures in Europe by exploiting the information contained in a pool of real-time vintages of data pertaining to fifteen EU countries over the period 1995-2008. We build up such real-time dataset from official publications. Our main findings are as follows: (i) preliminary deficit data releases are biased and non-efficient predictors of subsequent releases, with later vintages of data tending to show larger deficits on average; (ii) such systematic bias in deficit revisions is a general feature of the sample, and cannot solely be attributed to the behaviour of a small number of countries, even though the Greek case is clearly an outlier; (iii) Methodological improvements and clarifications stemming from Eurostat’s decisions that may lead to data revisions explain a significant share of the bias, providing some evidence of window dressing on the side of individual countries; (iv) expected real GDP growth, political cycles and the strength of fiscal rules also contribute to explain revision patterns; (v) nevertheless, if the systematic bias is excluded, revisions can be considered rational after two years.
    Keywords: E01 ; E21 ; E24 ; E31 ; E5 ; H60 ; ddc:330 ; data revisions ; fiscal statistics ; news and noise ; Rationality ; real-time data ; Finanzstatistik ; Haushaltsdefizit ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 17
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: This paper analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on euro area cross-border financial flows by comparing recent developments with the main pre-crisis trends. Two prominent features of the period of turmoil were (i) the sizeable deleveraging of external financial exposures by the private sector and, in particular, the banking sector from 2008 and (ii) the significant changes in the composition of euro area cross-border portfolio flows, as investors shifted from equity to debt instruments, from long-term to short- term debt instruments and from private to public sector securities. Since 2009 such trends have started reversing. However, as balance sheet restructuring by financial and non-financial corporations continues, cross-border financial flows have remained well below pre-crisis levels. The degree of resumption and volatility of crossborder financial activity may have a major bearing on growth prospects for the euro area and may also matter from a financial stability perspective. We argue that the recent experience, first of extraordinary growth and then of scaling down of international financial activity, calls for enhanced monitoring of developments in crossborder financial flows so that the underlying risks to the domestic economy stemming from the financial sector can be better assessed. Looking forward, successful implementation of policy actions to promote macroeconomic discipline and enhance financial regulation and supervision could influence, inter alia, the composition and volume of cross-border capital flows, contributing to a more efficient and sustainable allocation of resources.
    Keywords: D8 ; C7 ; ddc:330 ; Capital flows ; euro area ; global financial crisis ; Kapitalmobilität ; Finanzkrise ; Eurozone ; Internationaler Finanzmarkt ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 18
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: This paper explains the various concepts of government debt in the euro area with particular emphasis on its size and composition. In terms of size, the paper focuses on different definitions that are in use, in particular the concept of gross general government debt used in the surveillance of the euro area countries, the total liabilities from the government balance sheet approach, and the net debt concept which subtracts government fi nancial assets from the liability side. In addition, it discusses “hidden debt” in the form of implicit and contingent liabilities. In terms of composition, the paper provides information about euro area government debt broken down by maturity, holder or the currency of issue. All these indicators illustrate a sharp increase in government debt in most euro area countries as a result of the crisis. This in turn has several policy implications: (i) the growing government debt ratios need to be stabilised and put on a downward path which improves market confidence; (ii) fiscal surveillance needs to put more emphasis on government debt indicators than in the past; (iii) government financial assets could play a role when analysing solvency issues; (iv) implicit and other off-balance-sheet government liabilities need to be carefully monitored and reported; (v) the gross debt concept should remain the key basis for fiscal surveillance in the EU and for the Excessive Deficit Procedure in particular; (vi) beyond the size of government debt its composition is also a key factor behind public finance vulnerabilities.
    Keywords: E31 ; E58 ; F41 ; P24 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal policies ; government debt ; Stability and Growth Pact. ; sustainability ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Eurozone ; Finanzpolitik ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 19
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: The present paper explores issues surrounding multilateral interchange fees (MIFs) in payment card markets from various angles. The Eurosystem’s public stance on interchange fees is neutral. However, the Eurosystem takes a keen interest in facilitating a constructive dialogue among the stakeholders involved in this debate. Transparency and clarity with respect to the real costs and benefi ts of different payment instruments are indispensable for a modern and harmonised European retail payments market. Interchange fees (if any) should be set at a reasonable level so as to promote overall economic effi ciency in compliance with competition rules.
    Keywords: C43 ; E31 ; ddc:330 ; interchange fees ; retail payment systems ; Trade credit and debit cards ; two-sided markets ; Bargeldloser Zahlungsverkehr ; Kreditkarte ; Teilkostenrechnung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 20
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: The distributive trades sector, which is primarily accounted for by wholesale and retail trade, is not only economically important in its own right, but also relevant to monetary policy. Ultimately, it is retailers who set the actual prices of most consumer goods. They are the main interface between producers of consumer goods and consumers, with around half of private consumption accounted for by retail trade. The “value added” of this intermediation service can be substantial, as this accounts for, on average, about 25% of consumer prices. The purpose of this report is to analyse the structural features of the distributive trades sector and the developments within it, as well as how these may influence prices and price dynamics. This report contributes to a better understanding of the impact of the structural features of the distributive trades sector on prices and price-setting behaviour, thereby improving on previous research in this area. From a policy perspective, it highlights the importance of structural reforms that help enhance competition in this sector. This report uses a wide range of data sources – some of which are unique – to study an area that has been under-investigated, especially at the European level. There is, however, ample room for further research in this direction.
    Keywords: E58 ; F41 ; ddc:330 ; competition ; distributive trades ; monetary policy ; prices ; retail trades ; Handel ; Branche ; Preismanagement ; Preisniveau ; Inflation ; Geldpolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 21
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: There is an ongoing debate in the literature about the quality content of Chinese exports and to what extent China imposes a threat to the market positions of advanced economies. While China’s export structure is very similar to that of the advanced world, its export unit values are well below the level of developed economies. Building on the assumption that unit values reflect quality the prevailing view of the literature is that China exports low quality varieties of the same products than its advanced competitors. This paper challenges this view by relaxing the assumption that unit values reflect quality. We derive the quality of Chinese exports to the European Union by estimating disaggregated demand functions from a discrete choice model. The paper has two major findings. First, China’s share on the European Union market is larger than would be justified by its relatively low average prices, implying that the quality of Chinese export products is relatively high compared to many competitors. Second, China has gained quality relative to other competitors since 1995, indicating that China is climbing up the quality ladder. The relatively high and improving quality of China’s exports may be explained by the increasing role of global production networks in China.
    Keywords: F1 ; F12 ; F14 ; F15 ; F23 ; ddc:330 ; Chinese Exports ; COMEXT database ; Discrete Choice Model ; Global Production Networks ; Quality Ladder ; Vertical Product Differentiation ; Produktqualität ; Produktdifferenzierung ; Internationale Arbeitsteilung ; Unternehmensnetzwerk ; Diskrete Entscheidung ; Logit-Modell ; China ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 22
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: This Occasional Paper examines how and why the institutional framework governing EMU has evolved since the creation of the euro. Building on theories of institutionalism, the paper in particular investigates to what extent functional spillovers from the single currency into other policy domains, like macroeconomic policies or financial regulation, met with an adequate institutional response, and to what extent the existing institutional framework conditioned the response to the financial crisis. The interaction between policy requirements and institutional capabilities is examined both in “ordinary times” (1999-2007) and under “crisis conditions” (2007-10). The paper uses a typology of change which helps to put into perspective both the resilience of the institutional framework of EMU and its capacity to adapt. In this respect, it allows for a better understanding and framing of the current reforms of EMU economic governance. It concludes that even though the crisis will accelerate institutional development, it will do so only gradually, as path dependence and an inbuilt bias towards incremental change will prevent policy-makers from pursuing a “clean slate” strategy.
    Keywords: E52 ; E31 ; D84 ; ddc:330 ; EMU institutional architecture ; historical institutionalism ; institutional change. ; rational choice ; Eurozone ; Organisatorischer Wandel ; Rationalität ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 23
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: This paper provides an assessment of the impact of the covered bond purchase programme (hereafter referred to as the CBPP) relative to its policy objectives. The analysis presented on the impact of the CBPP on both the primary and secondary bond markets indicates that the Programme has been an effective policy instrument. It has contributed to: (i) a decline in money market term rates, (ii) an easing of funding conditions for credit institutions and enterprises, (iii) encouraging credit institutions to maintain and expand their lending to clients, and (iv) improving market liquidity in important segments of the private debt securities market. The paper also provides an overview of the investment strategy of the the Eurosystem with regard to the CBPP portfolio.
    Keywords: E22 ; L63 ; L86 ; O3 ; O47 ; ddc:330 ; covered bonds ; liquidity ; primary market ; secondary market ; Pfandbrief ; Offenmarktpolitik ; Euromarkt ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 24
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-03-31
    Description: The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area is a symptom of policy failures and deficiencies in – among other things – fiscal policy coordination. The first nine years of the euro were not used effectively in order to improve public finances, while the Stability and Growth Pact was watered down. Spillovers from the financial and economic crisis compounded fiscal difficulties in the euro area, especially in certain member countries. This paper looks back at the history of fiscal policies and rules in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It makes proposals to strengthen fiscal policy governance that go well beyond the legislation set to be adopted in autumn 2011. The authors consider these additional governance measures to be essential for effective policy coordination and sound public finances in the future.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; EU institutional reform ; fiscal deficits ; fiscal rules ; public debt ; Stability and Growth Pact ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; Finanzpolitik ; Haushaltsdefizit ; Institutioneller Wandel ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 25
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We use a novel disaggregate sectoral euro area data set with a regional breakdown to investigate price changes and suggest a new method to extract factors from over-lapping data blocks. This allows us to separately estimate aggregate, sectoral, country-specific and regional components of price changes. We thereby provide an improved estimate of the sectoral factor in comparison with previous literature, which decomposes price changes into an aggregate and idiosyncratic component only, and interprets the latter as sectoral. We find that the sectoral component explains much less of the variation in sectoral regional inflation rates and exhibits much less volatility than previous findings for the US indicate. We further contribute to the literature on price setting by providing evidence that country- and region-specific factors play an important role in addition to the sector-specific factors. We conclude that sectoral price changes have a “geographical” dimension, that leads to new insights regarding the properties of sectoral price changes.
    Keywords: E31 ; C38 ; D4 ; F4 ; ddc:330 ; common factor models ; Disaggregated prices ; euro area regional and sectoral inflation ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Konjunktur ; Regionalentwicklung ; Branchenentwicklung ; Schock ; Volatilität ; Preismanagement ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 26
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: The recent financial crisis deeply affected the money market yield curve and thus, potentially, the proper functioning of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission. Therefore, we analyze the effectiveness of monetary policy in steering euro area money market rates using two measures: first, the predictability of money market rates on the basis of monetary policy expectations, and second the impact of extraordinary central bank measures on money market rates. We find that market expectations about monetary policy are less relevant for money market rates up to 12 months after August 2007 compared to the pre-crisis period. At the same time, our results indicate that the ECB’s net increase in outstanding open market operations as of October 2008 accounts for at least a 100 basis point decline in Euribor rates. These findings show that central banks have effective tools at hand to conduct monetary policy in times of crises.
    Keywords: E43 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; European Central Bank ; financial crisis ; monetary policy implementation ; monetary transmission mechanism ; money market ; Geldpolitik ; Zinspolitik ; Geldmarkt ; Finanzkrise ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 27
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate a dynamic factor model on data sets with an arbitrary pattern of missing data. We modify the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm as proposed for a dynamic factor model by Watson and Engle (1983) to the case with general pattern of missing data. We also extend the model to the case with serially correlated idiosyncratic component. The framework allows to handle efficiently and in an automatic manner sets of indicators characterized by different publication delays, frequencies and sample lengths. This can be relevant e.g. for young economies for which many indicators are compiled only since recently. We also show how to extract a model based news from a statistical data release within our framework and we derive the relationship between the news and the resulting forecast revision. This can be used for interpretation in e.g. nowcasting applications as it allows to determine the sign and size of a news as well as its contribution to the revision, in particular in case of simultaneous data releases. We evaluate the methodology in a Monte Carlo experiment and we apply it to nowcasting and backdating of euro area GDP.
    Keywords: C53 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; EM algorithm ; Factor models ; forecasting ; large cross-sections ; Missing data ; Prognoseverfahren ; Dynamische Wirtschaftstheorie ; Faktorenanalyse ; Nationaleinkommen ; Monte-Carlo-Simulation ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 28
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Banks do not charge explicit fees for many of the services they provide but the service payment is bundled with the offered interest rates. This output therefore has to be imputed using estimates of the opportunity cost of funds. We argue that rather than using the single short-term, low-risk interest rate as in current official statistics, reference rates should more closely match the risk characteristics of loans and deposits. For the euro area, imputed bank output is, on average, 24 to 40 percent lower than according to current methodology. This implies an average downward adjustment of euro area GDP (at current prices) between 0.16 and 0.27 percent.
    Keywords: E01 ; E44 ; O47 ; ddc:330 ; Bank output ; deposit interest rates ; FISIM ; loan interest rates ; risk ; Bank ; Produktivität ; Messung ; Bankentgelt ; Zins ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 29
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: There is a need to find better models and indicators for large disruptive events, not least in order to be more prepared and mitigate their effects. In this paper we take a step in this direction and discuss the performance of a financial stress indicator with a specific focus on the euro area. As far as we know, our indicator is the first attempt to develop an indicator of financial stress with a specific focus on the euro area. It is also the first to exploit the information contained in central bank communication to help measure stress in financial markets. For use in real time, the indicator is able to efficiently extract information from an otherwise noisy signal and provide information about the level of stress in the markets.
    Keywords: E44 ; E50 ; G10 ; ddc:330 ; behavioural finance ; central bank communication ; Financial stress ; Leading Indicator ; logit distribution ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Finanzkrise ; Finanzsektor ; Geldpolitik ; Anlageverhalten ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 30
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: From the onset of the 2007-2009 crisis, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have aggressively lowered interest rates. Both sets of changes are at odds with an anti-inflationary stance of monetary policy; indeed, as the crisis began in August 2007 inflation expectations were high and rising, particularly in the United States. We have two additions to the literature. One, we present a model economy with a leveraged and regulated financial sector. Two, we find optimal Taylor rules for our economy that are consistent with a strong pro-inflationary reaction during financial crisis while maintaining a standard output-inflation mandate. We have three interpretations of our results. One, because the Federal Reserve has partial control over bank regulation it can exercise regulatory lenience. Two, the Fed’s stronger output orientation means that it will potentially respond more quickly when faced with constrained banks. Three, our results support procyclical capital regulation.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; G18 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; capital regulation ; crisis ; monetary policy ; Geldpolitik ; Taylor-Regel ; Finanzmarkt ; Regulierung ; Bankenregulierung ; Finanzkrise ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 31
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending shocks and the fiscal transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period 1980-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we investigate changes in the macroeconomic impact of government spending shocks using time-varying structural VAR techniques. The results show that the short-run effectiveness of government spending in stabilizing real GDP and private consumption has increased until the end-1980s but it has decreased thereafter. Moreover, government spending multipliers at longer horizons have declined substantially over the sample period. We also observe a weaker response of real wages and a stronger response of the nominal interest rate to spending shocks. Second, we provide econometric evidence on the driving forces behind the observed time variation of spending multipliers. We find that a higher ratio of credit to households over GDP, a smaller share of government investment and a larger share of public wages over total government spending have led to decreasing contemporaneous multipliers. At the same time, our results indicate that higher government debt-to-GDP ratios have negatively affected long-term multipliers.
    Keywords: C32 ; E62 ; H30 ; H50 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal transmission mechanism ; Government spending shocks ; Structural change ; Structural vector autoregressions ; Time-varying parameter models ; Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Schock ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Strukturwandel ; Bayes-Statistik ; VAR-Modell ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 32
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Using a unique dataset of the Euro area and the U.S. bank lending standards, we find that low (monetary policy) short-term interest rates soften standards, for household and corporate loans. This softening – especially for mortgages – is amplified by securitization activity, weak supervision for bank capital and too low for too long monetary policy rates. Conversely, low long-term interest rates do not soften lending standards. Finally, countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative Taylor-rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterwards. These results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications.
    Keywords: G01 ; G21 ; G28 ; E44 ; E5 ; ddc:330 ; bank capital ; financial stability ; Lending standards ; monetary policy ; securitization ; Kreditgeschäft ; Zinspolitik ; Taylor-Regel ; Verbriefung ; Bankenaufsicht ; Bankenregulierung ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 33
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We study the effect of interbank market integration on small firm finance in the build-up to the 2007-2008 financial crisis. We use a comprehensive data set that contains contract terms on individual loans to 6,047 firms across 14 European countries between 1998:01 and 2005:12. We account for the selection that arises in the loan request and approval process. Our findings imply that integration of interbank markets resulted in less stringent borrowing constraints and in substantially lower loan rates. The decrease was strongest in markets with competitive banking sectors. We also find that in the most rapidly integrating markets, firms became substantially overleveraged during the build-up to the crisis.
    Keywords: E51 ; G15 ; G21 ; G34 ; ddc:330 ; Bank competition ; firm leverage ; Interbank markets ; loan rates ; selection ; Geldmarkt ; Marktintegration ; Kreditgeschäft ; Wettbewerb ; Kapitalstruktur ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 34
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one‐sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied monthly reference business cycle indicator (BCI) derived from industrial production excluding construction is close to identical to the real GDP cycle, ii) the ALI reliably leads the BCI by 6 months and iii) the longer leading components of the ALI are good predictors of the ALI and therefore the BCI up to almost a year ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real‐time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during the 2008/2009 recession and following recovery confirms these findings.
    Keywords: E32 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle ; Deviation cycle ; euro area ; Leading Indicator ; Real‐time analysis ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Frühindikator ; Prognoseverfahren ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 35
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index-linked bonds. Our results show that, in both currency areas, inflation risk premia are relatively small, positive, and increasing in maturity. The cyclical dynamics of long-term inflation risk premia are mostly associated with changes in output gaps, while their high-frequency fluctuations seem to be aligned with variations in inflation. However, the cyclicality of inflation premia differs between the US and the euro area. Long term inflation premia are countercyclical in the euro area, while they are procyclical in the US.
    Keywords: E43 ; E44 ; ddc:330 ; central bank credibility ; inflation risk premia ; Term structure of interest rates ; Inflationsrate ; Risikoprämie ; Zinsstruktur ; Geldpolitik ; Konjunktur ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 36
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: The global financial crisis has lead to a renewed interest in discretionary fiscal stimulus. Advocates of discretionary measures emphasize that government spending can stimulate additional private spending — the Keynesian multiplier effect. Thus, we investigate whether the spending package announced by Euro area governments for 2009 and 2010 is likely to boost GDP by more than one for one. Because of modeling uncertainty, it is essential that such policy evaluations be robust to alternative modeling assumptions and parameterizations. We use five different empirical macroeconomic models with Keynesian features such as price and wage rigidities to evaluate the impact of the fiscal stimulus. Four of them suggest that the planned increase in government spending will reduce private consumption and investment significantly. Only a model that largely ignores the forward-looking behavioral response of consumers and firms implies crowding-in of private spending. We review a range of issues that may play a role in the recession of 2008-2009. Implementation lags are found to reinforce crowding-out and may even cause an initial contraction. Zero-bound effects may lead the central bank to abstain from interest rate hikes and increase the GDP impact of government spending. Crowding-in, however, requires an immediate anticipation of at least two years at the zero bound. Using a multi-country model, we find that spillovers between euro area countries are negligible or even negative, because direct demand effects are offset by the indirect effect of an euro appreciation. New-Keynesian DSGE models provide a strong case for government savings packages. Announced with sufficient lead time, spending cuts induce a significant short-run stimulus and crowding-in of private spending.
    Keywords: E62 ; E63 ; H31 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal Policy ; government spending multipliers ; Model uncertainty ; New-Keynesian models ; Finanzpolitik ; Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Multiplikator ; Spillover-Effekt ; Keynesianismus ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 37
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This study examines empirically the information content of the euro area Bank Lending Survey for aggregate credit and output growth. The responses of the lending survey, especially those related to loans to enterprises, are a significant leading indicator for euro area bank credit and real GDP growth. Notwithstanding the short history of the survey, the findings are robust across various specifications, including “horse races” with other well-known leading financial indicators. Our results are supportive of the existence of a bank lending, balance sheet, and risk-taking channel of monetary policy. They also suggest that price as well as non-price conditions and terms of credit standards do matter for credit and business cycles. Finally, we discuss the implications for the 2007/2009 financial and economic crisis.
    Keywords: C23 ; E32 ; E51 ; E52 ; G21 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; bank lending survey ; business cycle ; credit cycle ; euro area ; Monetary policy transmission ; Kreditgeschäft ; Konjunktur ; Geldpolitik ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 38
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Do public sector wages exert pressures on private sector wages, or has the private sector a leadership role in wage setting? This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity, institutions) for the main euro area economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) and the periods 1980-2007 and 1991-2007. It exploits available quarterly information not yet used in the literature, and combines different data sources in the framework of mixed-frequencies time series models. The quarterly frequency of our data allows us to check the existence of purely intra-annual links between public and private sector wages (signalling effect). There is strong evidence of public wages’ leadership, either in conjunction with bi-directional links from the private sector (Germany and Spain) or pure public wage leadership (France in the sample 1991-2007, Italy for within-the-year linkages).
    Keywords: C32 ; C53 ; J30 ; J51 ; J52 ; E62 ; E63 ; H50 ; H6 ; ddc:330 ; causal graph ; causality ; government wages ; Mixed frequency data ; private sector wages ; signalling ; Vergütungssystem im öffentlichen Dienst ; Signalling ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 39
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Beyer, Doornik and Hendry (2000, 2001) show analytically that three out of four aggregation methods yield problematic results when exchange rate shifts induce relative-price changes between individual countries and found the least problematic method to be the variable weight method of growth rates. This papers shows, however, that the latter is sensitive to the choice of base year when based on real GDP weights whereas not on nominal GDP weights. A comparison of aggregates calculated with different methods shows that the differences are tiny in absolute value but highly persistent. To investigate the impact on the cointegration properties in empirical modelling, the monetary model in Coenen & Vega (2001) based on fixed weights was re-estimated using flexible real and nominal GDP weights. In general, the results remained reasonably robust to the choice of aggregation method.
    Keywords: C32 ; C42 ; E41 ; ddc:330 ; Aggregation ; cointegration ; Eurowide money demand ; Flexible weights ; Aggregation ; Wirtschaftsindikator ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Geldnachfrage ; Kointegration ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 40
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Applying the identification strategy employed by Driscoll (2004) for the United States, this paper provides empirical evidence for the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission in the euro area. In addition, and in contrast to recent findings for the US, we find that in the euro area changes in the supply of credit, both in terms of volumes and in terms of credit standards applied on loans to enterprises, have significant effects on real economic activity. This highlights the importance of the monitoring of credit developments in the toolkit of monetary policy and underpins the reasoning behind giving monetary and credit analysis a prominent role in the monetary policy strategy of the ECB. It also points to the potential negative repercussions on real economic growth of bank balance sheet impairments arising in the context of the financial crisis erupting in mid-2007 which led to the need for banks to delever their balance sheets and possibly to reduce their loan supply.
    Keywords: C23 ; E51 ; E52 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; bank credit ; bank lending channel ; euro area ; panel data ; Kreditgeschäft ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Kreditwürdigkeit ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 41
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This note looks at US$ and DM/Euro denominated government bond spreads relative to US and German benchmark bonds before and after the start of the current financial crisis. The study finds, first, that bond yield spreads before and during the crisis can largely be explained on the basis of economic principles. Second, markets penalise fiscal imbalances much more strongly after the Lehman default in September 2008 than before. There is also a significant increase in the spread on non-benchmark bonds due to higher general risk aversion, and German bonds obtained a safe-haven investment status similar to that of the US which they did not have before the crisis. These findings underpin the need for achieving sound fiscal positions in good times and complying with the Stability and Growth Pact.
    Keywords: E43 ; E62 ; H63 ; H74 ; ddc:330 ; crisis ; Fiscal Policy ; government debt ; Interest Rates ; risk aversion ; safe haven ; Rentenmarkt ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Risikoprämie ; Finanzkrise ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 42
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper analyses information from survey data collected in the framework of the Eurosystem’s Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) on patterns of firm-level adjustment to shocks. We document that the relative intensity and the character of price vs. cost and wage vs. employment adjustments in response to cost-push shocks depend – in theoretically sensible ways – on the intensity of competition in firms’ product markets, on the importance of collective wage bargaining and on other structural and institutional features of firms and of their environment. Focusing on the passthrough of cost shocks to prices, our results suggest that the pass-through is lower in highly competitive firms. Furthermore, a high degree of employment protection and collective wage agreements tend to make this pass-through stronger.
    Keywords: J31 ; J38 ; P50 ; ddc:330 ; European Union ; Labour-market institutions ; survey data ; wage bargaining ; Preis ; Kosten ; Schock ; Arbeitskosten ; Preismanagement ; Wettbewerb ; Tarifverhandlungen ; Arbeitsmarktflexibilität ; Arbeitnehmerschutz ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 43
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to 2006. It turns out that real-time estimates of the output gap are characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, much higher than that resulting from model and estimation uncertainty only. In particular, the evidence indicates that both the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is mostly due to parameter instability, while data revisions seem to play a minor role. To benchmark our results, we repeat the analysis for the US over the same sample. It turns out that US real time estimates are much more correlated with final estimates than for the euro area, data revisions play a larger role, but overall the unreliability in real time of the US output gap measures detected in earlier studies is confirmed in the more recent period. Moreover, despite some difference across output gap estimates and forecast horizons, the results point clearly to a lack of any usefulness of real-time output gap estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and three-year ahead). By contrast, some evidence is provided indicating that several output gap estimates are useful to forecast real GDP growth, particularly in the short term, and some appear also useful in the medium run. No single output gap measure appears superior to all others in all respects.
    Keywords: E31 ; E37 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; data revisions ; euro area ; Inflation forecasts ; output gap ; real GDP forecasts ; real-time data ; Prognose ; Prognoseverfahren ; Inflation ; Bruttoinlandsprodukt ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 44
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We characterize the Laffer curves for labor taxation and capital income taxation quantitatively for the US, the EU-14 and individual European countries by comparing the balanced growth paths of a neoclassical growth model featuring ”constant Frisch elasticity” (CFE) preferences. We derive properties of CFE preferences. We provide new tax rate data. For benchmark parameters, we find that the US can increase tax revenues by 30% by raising labor taxes and 6% by raising capital income taxes. For the EU-14 we obtain 8% and 1%. Denmark and Sweden are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve for capital income taxation.
    Keywords: E0 ; E60 ; H0 ; ddc:330 ; dynamic scoring ; incentives ; Laffer curve ; US and EU-14 economy ; Steuerpolitik ; Steuerbelastung ; Arbeit ; Kapital ; Laffer-Kurve ; Neoklassische Theorie ; Steuersenkung ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 45
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper documents the existence and main patterns of inter-industry wage differentials across a large number of industries for 8 EU countries (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, and Spain) at two points in time (in general 1995 and 2002) and explores possible explanations for these patterns. The analysis uses the European Structure of Earnings Survey (SES), an internationally harmonised matched employer-employee dataset, to estimate inter-industry wage differentials conditional on a rich set of employee, employer and job characteristics. After investigating the possibility that unobservable employee characteristics lie behind the conditional wage differentials, a hypothesis which cannot be accepted, the paper investigates the role of institutional, industry structure and industry performance characteristics in explaining inter-industry wage differentials. The results suggest that inter-industry wage differentials are consistent with rent sharing mechanisms and that rent sharing is more likely in industries with firm-level collective agreements and with higher collective agreement coverage.
    Keywords: J31 ; J41 ; J51 ; ddc:330 ; inter-industry wage differentials ; Rent sharing ; unobserved ability ; Sektorale Lohnstruktur ; Humankapital ; Unternehmenserfolg ; Lohnbildung ; Erfolgsbeteiligung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 46
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: In this paper we review the methodology of forecasting with log-linearised DSGE models using Bayesian methods. We focus on the estimation of their predictive distributions, with special attention being paid to the mean and the covariance matrix of h-step ahead forecasts. In the empirical analysis, we examine the forecasting performance of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) that has been designed for use in the macroeconomic projections at the European Central Bank. The forecast sample covers the period following the introduction of the euro and the out-of-sample performance of the NAWM is compared to nonstructural benchmarks, such as Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). Overall, the empirical evidence indicates that the NAWM compares quite well with the reduced-form models and the results are therefore in line with previous studies. Yet there is scope for improving the NAWM’s forecasting performance. For example, the model is not able to explain the moderation in wage growth over the forecast evaluation period and, therefore, it tends to overestimate nominal wages. As a consequence, both the multivariate point and density forecasts using the log determinant and the log predictive score, respectively, suggest that a large BVAR can outperform the NAWM.
    Keywords: C11 ; C32 ; E32 ; E37 ; ddc:330 ; Bayesian inference ; DSGE Models ; euro area ; forecasting ; open-economy macroeconomics ; Vector autoregression ; Prognoseverfahren ; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht ; Bayes-Statistik ; VAR-Modell ; Offene Volkswirtschaft ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 47
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: We study changes in the wage structures in nine EU countries over 1995-2002 and the role of demand, supply and institutional developments in shaping these changes. Using comparable cross-country microeconomic data, we compute for each country and at each decile of the wage distribution, the part of the observed wage change that is due to changes in the composition of workers, employers, and jobs’ characteristics, and the part due to changes in the returns to these characteristics. We find that composition effects derived from changes in age, gender or education of the labour force, largely exogenous to economic developments, had a minor contribution to the observed wage dynamics. In contrast, return and composition effects from characteristics likely driven by economic developments are found most relevant to explain the observed changes. We relate wages and their various components with macroeconomic and institutional trends and find that technology and globalisation are associated with wage increases; migration is associated with declines in wages; whereas the effect of labour market institutions has been mixed.
    Keywords: J31 ; ddc:330 ; Quantile Regressions ; Wage Structure ; Lohnstruktur ; Lohnstruktur ; Mikrodaten ; Regressionsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 48
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions belonging to the euro area and between euro area regions and the world economy. Simulation analysis shows the transmission mechanism of region-specific or common shocks, originating in the euro area and abroad.
    Keywords: C53 ; E32 ; E52 ; F47 ; ddc:330 ; DSGE Models ; econometric models ; open-economy macroeconomics ; policy analysis ; Neue Makroökonomik offener Volkswirtschaften ; Dynamisches Gleichgewicht ; Prognoseverfahren ; Geldpolitik ; Konjunktur ; Geldpolitische Transmission ; Eurozone ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 49
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper does two things. First it examines the use of real time inter-annual cash data and the role of early interventions for improving the monitoring of national fiscal policies and the correction of fiscal indiscipline. Early warnings are important because they allow us to spread the necessary adjustments over time. Examples from Germany and Italy show that large corrections are often necessary early on to make adjustments later on acceptable and to keep debt ratios from escalating. There is a credibility issue here; we find the difference between front-loaded and back-loaded adjustment schemes is likely to be vital for the time consistency of fiscal policymaking. Second, without early interventions, the later deficit reductions typically double in size – meaning governments become subject to the excessive deficit procedure and significant improvement tests more often. Thus the budget savings from early intervention and the use of cash data are significant; in our examples they are similar in size to the operating budget of the department of housing and urban development in Germany. Similar results apply in other Eurozone countries.
    Keywords: E62 ; H50 ; H68 ; ddc:330 ; additive vs slope adjustments ; cash data ; early warning ; fiscal credibility ; fiscal surveillance ; Haushaltsplanung ; Haushaltsdefizit ; Finanzkontrolle ; Finanzpolitik ; Prognoseverfahren ; Europäischer Stabilitätsmechanismus ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 50
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: This paper uses information from a rich firm-level survey on wage and price-setting procedures, in around 15,000 firms in 15 European Union countries, to investigate the relative importance of internal versus external factors in the setting of wages of newly hired workers. The evidence suggests that external labour market conditions are less important than internal pay structures in determining hiring pay, with internal pay structures binding even more often when there is labour market slack. When explaining their choice firms allude to fairness considerations and the need to prevent a potential negative impact on effort. Despite the lower importance of external factors in all countries there is significant cross-country variation in this respect. Cross-country differences are found to depend on institutional factors (bargaining structures); countries in which collective agreements are more prevalent and collective agreement coverage is higher report to a greater extent internal pay structures as the main determinant of hiring pay. Within-country differences are found to depend on firm and workforce characteristics; there is a strong association between the use of external factors in hiring pay, on the one hand, and skills (positive) and tenure (negative) on the other.
    Keywords: J31 ; J41 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle ; employee turnover ; internal pay structure ; newly hired workers ; survey data ; wage rigidity ; Lohnrigidität ; Lohnstruktur ; Humankapital ; Arbeitsmobilität ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 51
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Frankfurt a. M.: European Central Bank (ECB)
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: The paper discusses global imbalances under the aspect of an asymmetric world monetary system. It identifies the US and Germany as center countries with rising / high current account deficits (US) and surpluses (Germany). These are matched by current account surpluses of countries stabilizing their exchange rates against the dollar (dollar periphery) and current account deficits of countries stabilizing their exchange rate against the euro (euro periphery). Meanwhile, the aggregate current account balance of the euro area has been by and large balanced. The paper finds that changes of world current account positions are affected by the macroeconomic policy decisions both in the centers and peripheries, albeit the centers – due to structural characteristics related to size – are argued to have a higher degree of freedom in macroeconomic policy making. In specific, expansionary monetary policy in the US as well as exchange rate stabilization and sterilization policies in the dollar periphery are found to have contributed to global current account imbalances. Given that the sample period for the analysis extends from 1981-2008, the results for Germany mostly capture the situation before the euro was created.