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  • Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)  (168)
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  • English  (168)
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  • 1
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We study the contribution of market regulations in the dynamics of the real exchange rate within the European Union. Based on a model proposed by De Gregorio et al. (1994a), we show that both product market regulations in nontradable sectors and employment protection tend to inflate the real exchange rate. We then carry out an econometric estimation for European countries over 1985-2006 to quantify the contributions of the pure Balassa-Samuelson effect and those of market regulations in real exchange-rate variations. Based on this evidence and on a counter-factual experiment, we conclude that the relative evolution of product market regulations and employment protection across countries play a very significant role in real exchange-rate variations within the European Union and especially within the Euro area, through theirs impacts on the relative price of nontradable goods.
    Keywords: F41 ; J50 ; L40 ; ddc:330 ; real exchange rate ; Balassa-Samuelson effect ; product market regulations ; employment protection ; EU-Binnenmarkt ; Regulierung ; Arbeitnehmerschutz ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Kaufkraftparität ; Balassa-Samuelson Effekt ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The tax competition for mobile capital, in particular the reluctance of small countries to agree on measures of tax coordination, has ongoing political and economic fallouts within Europe. We analyse the effects of introducing a two tier structure of capital taxation, where the asymmetric member states of a union choose a common, federal tax rate in the first stage, and then non-cooperatively set local tax rates in the second stage. We show that this mechanism effectively reduces competition for mobile capital between the members of the union. Moreover, it distributes the gains across the heterogeneous states in a way that yields a strict Pareto improvement over a one tier system of purely local tax choices. Finally, we present simulation results, and show that a dual structure of capital taxation has advantages even when side payments are feasible.
    Keywords: H25 ; H77 ; H87 ; ddc:330 ; capital tax competition ; dual tier taxation ; international unions ; Kapitalertragsteuer ; Finanzföderalismus ; Steuerwettbewerb ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System diverging current account positions in Europe have prevailed. While the Southern and Western European countries have tended to run current account deficits, the current accounts of the Central and Northern European countries, in particular Germany, have tended to be in surplus. The paper scrutinizes the role of diverging fiscal policy stances for current account imbalances in Europe since the early 1970s under alternative institutional monetary arrangements (floating exchange rates, European Monetary System, and European Monetary Union). It sheds light on the interaction of fiscal and monetary policies with respect to their impact on the current account and analyses the role of exchange rate changes and credit facilities as adjustment mechanisms for current account imbalances. Panel regressions reveal a robust impact of fiscal policy divergence on current account imbalances, which to a large extent is independent from the exchange rate regime, but which turns out to be contingent on the monetary policy stance.
    Keywords: F32 ; F33 ; F42 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; Europe ; EMU ; EMS ; current account imbalances ; exchange rate adjustment ; credit mechanisms ; European debt crisis ; Leistungsbilanz ; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht ; Finanzpolitik ; Geldpolitik ; Europäischer Währungsverbund ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Internationaler Kredit ; EU-Staaten ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Eurozone
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The paper provides an equilibrium analysis of how countries compete for migrants. The type of competition (tax or transfer competition) depends on whether the competing countries have similar policy preferences. With symmetric preferences, countries compete in taxes for migrants. With asymmetric preferences, migration competition takes place in income support levels. The results are robust to the degree of mobility and to whether high-income or low-income households are mobile. The results are relevant, e.g., for federal policies that tackle inefficient migration competition and for evaluating whether a country may wish to adopt unilateral migration-purchase policies.
    Keywords: H70 ; J20 ; F20 ; ddc:330 ; migration ; redistribution ; income taxation ; government strategy ; endogenous type of competition ; Internationale Wanderung ; Standortwettbewerb ; Steuerwettbewerb ; Sozialtransfer ; Föderation ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Since Jean Monnet conceived the Coal and Steel Community, free trade has successfully prevented serious conflicts in Europe between democratically governed States with market economies. After six countries established the European Community, this principle has been extended successfully to its immediate neighbours, successively enlarging the European Union to its current 27 Member States. The Union's European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has through the Union for the Mediterranean and the Eastern Partnership attempted to further political stability and economic development by liberalising trade between the EU and its neighbours as well as among these neighbours themselves. The Arab Spring initially improved the prospects for establishing political democracy and human rights in key countries. In response, the EU increased the emphasis in the ENP on supporting the democratization process in the Barcelona countries and on negotiating deep and comprehensive free trade agreements among the countries of the region as well as between each such country and the EU. Using a panel gravity model of trade, this paper estimates the potential for increased intra-regional trade among ten countries of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean coast of the EU. It attempts to answer the following questions. Between which groups of countries (e.g., Agadir countries, key actual/former belligerent countries in the Middle East) is this potential largest? Is it anywhere sufficiently large to provide an incentive for these countries to integrate much more closely with each other and with the EU? Can the prospect of such closer integration provide sufficient economic benefits to encourage progress in democratisation in key countries and resolution of conflicts between key participating countries? Or are stronger incentives needed?
    Keywords: F13 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; Demokratisierung ; Freihandel ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; Außenpolitik ; Friedenssicherung ; EU-Europäisch ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Gravitationsmodell ; Mittelmeerraum ; Mittlerer Osten ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We provide a first attempt to include off-balance sheet, implicit insurance to SIFIs into a consistent assessment of fiscal sustainability, for 27 countries of the European Union. We first calculate tax gaps à la Blanchard (1990) and Blanchard et al. (1990). We then introduce two alternative measures of implicit off-balance sheet liabilities related to the risk of a systemic bank crisis. The first one relies of microeconomic data at the bank level. The second one relies on econometric estimations of the probability and the cost of a systemic banking crisis, based on historical data. The former approach provides an upper evaluation of the fiscal cost of systemic banking crises, whereas the latter one provides a lower one. Hence we believe that the combined use of these two methodologies helps to gauge the range of fiscal risk.
    Keywords: H12 ; H63 ; H81 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal sustainability ; tax gap ; systemic banking risk ; off-balance sheet liabilities ; Öffentlicher Haushalt ; Nachhaltigkeit ; Bankenkrise ; Systemrisiko ; Steueraufkommen ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The European Court of Justice (ECJ) is a very powerful court compared to other international courts and even national courts of last resort. Observers almost unanimously agree that it is the preliminary references procedure that made the ECJ the powerful court it is today. In this paper, we analyze the determinants that lead national courts to use the procedure. We add to previous studies by constructing a comprehensive panel dataset (1982-2008), including more potentially relevant explanatory variables and by testing for the robustness of previous results. In addition to confirming the relevance of variables previously found significant, we identify a number of additional determinants, including the relevance of agriculture to a country, corporate tax rate, familiarity with EU law, and tenure of democracy.
    Keywords: H77 ; K33 ; ddc:330 ; European Court of Justice ; economic analysis of court behavior ; preliminary reference procedure ; Gerichtsbarkeit ; Verfahrensrecht ; Rechtsökonomik ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Continued lobbying by high-end, American designers for intellectual property-type fashion design protection has culminated in the proposed Innovative Design Protection and Piracy Prevention Act, intended to introduce EU standards. Using a sequential, 2-firm, vertical differentiation framework, we analyze the effects of protection on investment in innovative designs by high-quality (designer) and lower-quality (mass-market) firms when the mass-marketer may opt to imitate, consumers prefer trendsetting designs and firms compete in prices. We show that design protection, by transforming mass-marketers from imitators to innovators, may reduce both designer profits and welfare. The model provides possible explanations for the dearth of EU case law and the increase in designer/mass-marketer collaborations.
    Keywords: D21 ; L13 ; O31 ; O34 ; ddc:330 ; intellectual property rights ; fashion design protection ; imitation ; licensing ; Mode ; Produktdesign ; Immaterialgüterrechte ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Bekleidungsindustrie ; Innovation ; Imitationswettbewerb ; Wohlfahrtseffekt ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Two main approaches have been implemented in regional CO2 markets to address competitiveness and carbon leakage: output based allocation (Australia, California, New Zealand) and capacity based allocation (EU). This paper characterizes the best policy, given that auctioning with border adjustment is excluded. A simple model is used in which the regional demand is subject to business cycles, and the import pressure depends on the demand level and capacity constraints. A combination of output and capacity based allocation is proved to be the optimal second best policy. The EU scheme for 2013-2020 is discussed, using cement as a case study.
    Keywords: D24 ; L13 ; H23 ; L74 ; ddc:330 ; cap and trade ; output based allocation ; subsidization of capacity ; climate policy ; carbon leakage ; competitiveness ; Verarbeitendes Gewerbe ; Energiekonsum ; Auslandsverlagerung ; Klimaschutz ; Emissionsrechte ; Allokation ; Luftverunreinigung ; Produktionskapazität ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Second Best ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten ; Australien
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Decisions to donate time or money for charitable purposes are typically seen as make-or-buy decisions, implying that there should be a clear distinction between individuals engaging in one of these two forms of giving and that this distinction should be somehow linked to opportunity costs. But this is not at all what we observe in micro-level data. We therefore suggest an alternative explanation by which time and cash donations are complements rather than substitutes. Assuming that there is asymmetric information about charities' activities and their effectiveness, doing volunteer work may serve as a screening mechanism enabling donors to better assess the use that is made of the money they could contribute. We formalize this idea and, building on the European Social Survey (ESS), we also provide empirical evidence regarding the co-variation of volunteering and donating money which is suited to support our view.
    Keywords: D64 ; D82 ; J22 ; L31 ; ddc:330 ; charities ; cash donations ; volunteer work ; asymmetric information ; screening ; empirical evidence ; Wohltätigkeit ; Spende ; Asymmetrische Information ; Signalling ; Ehrenamtliche Arbeit ; Komplementärgut ; Theorie ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We develop a two-country, two-sector model with a continuum of workers to address the link between migration and trade where policy is determined by a simple referendum. In particular, we address two questions. First, are states already in free trade areas more likely to support full integration than states without free trade? Second, is trade liberalization more likely to be supported by a simultaneous referendum on trade and migration than in one on trade alone? The key to our analysis is the recognition that for free trade, migration, or trade and migration to be adopted, the relevant policy must pass the referendum in both countries. We identify conditions under which that occurs. Our model provides an interpretation of the evolution of the politics of economic integration related to NAFTA and European Union.
    Keywords: F15 ; F22 ; F59 ; ddc:330 ; skilled labor ; migration ; trade ; political economy ; Hochqualifizierte Arbeitskräfte ; Brain Drain ; Außenhandelsliberalisierung ; Public Choice ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; Theorie ; NAFTA-Staaten ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Under what conditions can the European Neighbourhood Policy achieve one of its main objectives: to resolve conflicts in the European Union's neighbourhood? In the spirit of Montesquieu and Monnet, the basic hypothesis of the EU is that closer economic integration encourages governments to take steps to resolve conflicts and vice versa, creating a virtuous circle of prosperity and detente. The EU has a strong motive in this, since conflicts in its neighbourhood spill-over into the EU itself. The paper identifies some factors important for success, including the existence of active facilitators of compromise, strong intraregional trade, and the prospect of accession to the EU. It concludes that the EU's Member States must give conflict resolution greater priority in the European Neighbourhood Policy and provide stronger means, larger resources and better incentives if this goal is to be realised.
    Keywords: F13 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; trade ; Balkans ; European Neighbourhood Policy ; Außenpolitik ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; Europäische Integration ; Friedenssicherung ; EU-Staaten ; Europa
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The objective of this paper is to gain insights into the relationship between deficit-reducing policies and the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio. We consider past events of fiscal consolidation in a selected group of EU countries, by using the new data set recently made available by Devries et al. (2011), and check what is the associated change of the debt/GDP ratio both from a short and medium-term perspective. Our results show that a favourable short-term response emerges in the majority of the countries considered, while the medium-term one is adverse for all. The analysis provides information to assess the convenience of deficit-reducing policies to contain or invert the evolution of the debt/GDP ratio.
    Keywords: H63 ; E63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal consolidation ; debt/GDP ratio ; European Union ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Sozialprodukt ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We study the impact of political knowledge on the attitudes of European citizens towards the possible distribution of responsibilities between European level institutions and national governments in three policy areas: foreign policy, defence and immigration policy. The hypothesis tested is that if citizens are not knowledgeable about how the EU works, they are more likely to be wrong about the consequences of a mismatch in the allocation of competences. In order to identify the causal effect of political knowledge on attitudes we use an instrumental variables approach. The results show that more informed citizens have a considerably higher probability of being in favour of the process of EU integration.
    Keywords: H70 ; D80 ; ddc:330 ; European Union ; information ; attitudes ; political economy ; Europäische Integration ; Meinung ; Politisches System ; Wissen ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Understanding how price regulations affect the adoption of new patent-protected pharmaceutical technologies is a crucial question in designing health systems. This paper addresses this question by examining how price expectations shape the probability of launch, controlling for competition, market size expectations, firm and molecule heterogeneity across the major OECD markets during 1999-2008. Due to the censoring of launch data we use discrete time duration modelling with parametric and semi-parametric duration dependence specification. A sub-sample analysis including only EU countries also investigates the impact of price interdependencies and potential firm strategies in launch and pricing decisions. The empirical analysis of the global set of molecules which have diffused across more than 10 markets in the OECD, suggests there is a statistically significant and robust price effect in the adoption of new pharmaceutical technologies; low-prices result in reduced and slower adoption. Concentrated therapeutic subgroups, reflecting market crowding constitutes a significant barrier to entry. Sub-sample findings from the EU market suggest strategic firm behaviour with firms delaying launch in low-priced markets and attempts to maintain price differentials across interdependent markets to a minimum due to price complementarities. Firm economies of scale and the therapeutic importance of innovations are other important drivers of adoption speed.
    Keywords: I11 ; L51 ; ddc:330 ; pharmaceutical innovation ; regulation ; adoption ; duration analysis ; Pharmazeutisches Produkt ; Innovationsdiffusion ; Arzneimittelmarkt ; Staatliche Preispolitik ; Statistische Bestandsanalyse ; OECD-Staaten ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the information content of subjective expert density forecasts using micro data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of scoring functions which evaluate the entire predictive densities, including an evaluation of the impact of density features such as their location, spread, skew and tail risk on density forecast performance. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. Relative to a set of crude benchmark alternatives, this performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, relative to the proposed benchmarks, we report evidence of some improvement in the performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in the expert probability assessments, as reflected also in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Moreover, higher moment features of the expert densities, such as their skew or the degree of probability mass in their tails, are shown not to contribute significantly to improvements in individual density forecast performance.
    Keywords: C22 ; C53 ; ddc:330 ; density forecasts ; forecast evaluation ; real-time data ; Survey of Professional Forecasters ; Sachverständige ; Prognoseverfahren ; Konjunkturprognose ; Bewertung ; Informationswert ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Greece has reached a point where, under any plausible macroeconomic scenario, public debt will continue growing faster than GDP. Fiscal consolidation alone cannot close the solvency gap. A substantial reduction in the stock of debt is needed. Even post-debt restructuring, there is no guarantee that the government will succeed in its dual goal of restoring fiscal solvency and closing the competitiveness gap. Yet we think Greece stands a better chance of accomplishing these goals from inside the EMU rather than outside it. This chapter takes stock of the factors that led to the explosion of public debt, the loss of competitiveness, and the failure of the first EU-IMF programme. We also present our views on the likely debt restructuring (and post-restructuring) scenarios.
    Keywords: E60 ; F40 ; ddc:330 ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Staatsbankrott ; Internationaler Wettbewerb ; Umschuldung ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Griechenland ; Schuldenübernahme ; EU-Staaten ; Welt
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper examines the spillover effects of sovereign rating news on European financial markets during the period 2007-2010. Our main finding is that sovereign rating downgrades have statistically and economically significant spillover effects both across countries and financial markets. The sign and magnitude of the spillover effects depend both on the type of announcements, the source country experiencing the downgrade and the rating agency from which the announcements originates. However, we also find evidence that downgrades to near speculative grade ratings for relatively large economies such as Greece have a systematic spillover effects. Rating-based triggers may help explain these results.
    Keywords: G15 ; F36 ; ddc:330 ; credit ratings ; news ; spillovers ; financial markets ; Länderrisiko ; Ankündigungseffekt ; Spillover-Effekt ; Finanzmarkt ; Staatsbankrott ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: There is clear evidence that fairness plays a role in redistribution. Individuals want to compensate others for their misfortune, while they allow them to enjoy the fruits of their effort. This paper introduces fairness in a tax-benefit scheme that is based on several characteristics in order to study the design of optimal taxes where people have what we call 'partial control'. For some characteristics like sex, age and inborn handicaps the degree of control is zero (i.e., these characteristic are exogenous tags fully defined by the individual's type), while for other characteristics, think of education and family composition, the degree of control is positive, i.e. it can be changed by exerting effort. We derive the fair tax benefit formula as well as two testable predictions. We provide the first estimates of implicit tax rates for different characteristics in 26 European countries (using EU-SILC data) and the US (using CPS data) and find a robust tendency in all countries to compensate more for uncontrollable characteristics compared to the partially controllable ones. We then attempt to calculate which countries currently have fair tax systems. Only the Continental countries France and Luxembourg pass the fairness test, whereas the Baltic and Anglo-Saxon countries (including the US) perform worst. Our paper provides a new way to formalize the old intuition that, in a fair society, people should be allowed to benefit more from their own efforts than from exogenous characteristics like their genetic endowment.
    Keywords: D60 ; H20 ; I30 ; ddc:330 ; fairness ; redistribution ; tax-benefit schemes ; tagging ; optimal taxation ; Optimale Besteuerung ; Steuersystem ; Steuergerechtigkeit ; EU-Staaten ; Norwegen ; Island ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: There is often a gap between the prescriptions of an optimal tax system and actual tax systems, some of which can be neither efficient economically nor efficient at redistributing income. With a focus on personal income taxes, this paper reviews the political economics literature on tax systems and reforms to see whether political mechanisms allow us to better understand why tax systems look the way they look. Finally, we exploit a database of reforms in labour taxation in the European Union to check the determinants of all reforms, on the one hand, and of targeted reforms, on the other hand. The results fit well with political economy theories and show that political variables carry more weight in triggering reforms than economic variables. This shed light on whether and how tax reforms are achievable. It also explains why many reforms that seem economically optimal fail to be implemented.
    Keywords: H11 ; H21 ; H24 ; P16 ; ddc:330 ; political economy ; taxation ; personal income tax ; Einkommensteuer ; Steuersystem ; Public Choice ; Lohnsteuer ; Steuerreform ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The EU's cohesion policy should now be confluent with the goals of the Lisbon strategy by promoting growth and employment. In this context, the promotion of a concept called regional innovation system has recently become important in the EU for guaranteeing long-term regional economic growth. This paper attempts to explain the determinants of the varying degrees of innovation promotion by the EU from one region to another. Since regional-policy strategies should have been subject to a new orientation towards more innovation promotion, we are particularly interested in whether the EU's co-financing policy of innovation projects changed for the 2007-2013 program period compared with the 2000-2006 period. According to our empirical analysis, which controls for various determinants of innovation promotion, there has been no significant change in the EU's regional policy strategy in general. We confirm this result when focusing on less-developed Objective 1 regions, where we would have expected the new policy strategy to show up more pronounced in particular.
    Keywords: O18 ; O31 ; O52 ; R11 ; R58 ; ddc:330 ; Lisbon Agenda ; regional innovation network ; EU cohesion policy ; EU-Regionalpolitik ; Lissabon Strategie ; Innovationspolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper applies different copulas in order to investigate the complex dependence structure between EU emission allowance (EUA) futures returns and those of other commodities, equity and energy indices. The analysis yields important insights into the relationship between carbon, commodities and financial markets. First of all, we find a significant relationship between EUA returns and those of the other considered variables that is most appropriately modeled by a Gaussian and Student-t copula. These results contradict some earlier studies that report no statistically significant or even negative correlations between returns of emission allowances and other financial variables. Secondly, considering time-varying copulas shows that the estimated copula parameters are not constant over time. We find in particular that the dependence is stronger during the period of the financial crisis. In a Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis, finally, we further illustrate the advantages of copula methods. In particular the Student-t copula provides an appropriate quantification of VaR at different confidence levels while other models fail to specify the risk correctly. This analysis shows that ignoring the actual nature of dependence might lead to an underestimation of the risk for portfolios combining EUAs with commodities or equity investments.
    Keywords: Q28 ; G13 ; C19 ; ddc:330 ; CO2 emission trading ; commodity markets ; copula models ; dependence structure ; Emissionshandel ; Kapitalertrag ; Rohstoff-Futures ; Finanzmarkt ; Kopula ; Risikomaß ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 23
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: By using a model of trade union behaviour Grüner (2010) argues that the introduction of the European Monetary Union (EMU) led to lower wage growth and lower unemployment in participating countries. Following Grüner's model, monetary centralization lets the central bank react less flexibly to national business cycle movements. This increases the amplitude of national business cycles which, in turn, leads to higher unemployment risk. In order to counter-balance this effect, trade unions lower their claims for wage mark-ups resulting in lower wage growth and lower unemployment. This paper uses macroeconomic data on OECD countries and a difference-in-differences approach to empirically test the implications of this model. Although we come up with some weak evidence for increased business cycle amplitudes within the EMU, we neither find a significant general effect of the EMU on wage growth nor on unemployment.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; common currency areas ; EMU ; Phillips curve ; unemployment ; wages ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Geldpolitik ; Lohn ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Phillips-Kurve ; Lohnverhandlungen ; EU-Staaten ; OECD-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The paper analyses theoretically what role fiscal councils could play and surveys empirically the activities of existing councils. Case studies of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility are done. It is concluded that fiscal councils should be advisory, rather than decision-making, and work as complements, rather than substitutes, to fiscal rules. A key issue is the political fragility of fiscal councils and how their long-run viability should be secured. Three ways of guaranteeing their independence are suggested: (1) reputation-building; (2)formal national rules; and (3) international monitoring.
    Keywords: H60 ; ddc:330 ; deficit bias ; fiscal rules ; fiscal councils ; Öffentliche Finanzkontrolle ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Finanzpolitik ; Wirtschaftspolitische Beratung ; Wirtschaftspolitik ; Öffentliche Finanzwirtschaft ; Schweden ; Großbritannien ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The foreign debts of the European countries are at the core of the current crises. Generally, the crises are attributed to government budget deficits in excess of the values stated in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)/Maastricht treaty. Proposals for reform generally involve increasing the powers of the European Union to monitor fiscal policies of the national governments and increasing bank regulation. My article is concerned with the following issues. [Q1] How can one explain the inter country differences in the debt crisis in Europe? Is there a single explanation, cause? [Q2] Specifically, were the crises due to government budget deficits or to the private sector? The answer will determine what is the appropriate policy to prevent a recurrence. [Q3] The Stability and Growth Pact/Maastricht Treaty and the European Union focused upon rules concerning government debt ratios and deficit ratios. They ignored the problem of 'excessive' debt ratios in the private sector that led to a crisis in the financial markets. Neither the markets nor the Central Banks anticipated the crises until it was too late. My basic questions are: What is an 'excessive' private sector debt ratio that is likely to lead to a crisis? What are theoretically based, not empirical ad hoc, Early Warning Signals (EWS) of debt crises? The answers determine to a large extent how one should evaluate proposals for economic reform, to avert future crises?
    Keywords: F02 ; ddc:330 ; European debt crisis ; excess debt ; early warning signals ; domestic housing sector ; government deficit debt ; Verbindlichkeiten ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Immobilienpreis ; EU-Stabilitätspakt ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Whether observed differences in redistributive policies across countries are the result of differences in social preferences or efficiency constraints is an important question that paves the debate about the optimality of welfare regimes. To shed new light on this question, we estimate labor supply elasticities on microdata and adopt an inverted optimal tax approach to characterize the redistributive preferences embodied in the welfare systems of 17 EU countries and the US. Implicit social welfare functions are broadly compatible with the fiction of an optimizing Paretian social planner. Some exceptions due to generous demogrant transfers are consistent with the ignorance of behavioral responses by some European governments and are partly corrected by recent policy developments. Heterogeneity in leisure-consumption preferences somewhat affect the international comparison in degrees of revealed inequality aversion, but differences in social preferences are significant only between broad groups of countries.
    Keywords: H11 ; H21 ; D63 ; C63 ; ddc:330 ; social preferences ; redistribution ; optimal income taxation ; labor supply ; Steuerpolitik ; Sozialpolitik ; Soziale Wohlfahrtsfunktion ; Offenbarte Präferenzen ; Optimale Besteuerung ; Arbeitsangebot ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper proposes new metrics for the process of price discovery on the main electronic trading platform for euro-denominated government securities. Analysing price data on daily transactions for 107 bonds over a period of twenty-seven months, we find a greater degree of price leadership of the dominant market when our measures (as opposed to the traditional price discovery metrics) are used. We also present unambiguous evidence that a market's contribution to price discovery is crucially affected by the level of trading activity. The implications of these empirical findings are discussed in the light of the debate about the possible restructuring of the regulatory framework for the Treasury bond market in Europe.
    Keywords: G10 ; C21 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; price discovery ; liquidity ; MTS system ; Börsenkurs ; Marktliquidität ; Informationsverbreitung ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Sekundärmarkt ; Euro-Anleihe ; Marktsegmentierung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper analyses the trade balance effects of Europe agreements (EA) between the EU-15 and four new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC-4) using both static and dynamic panel data approaches. Specifically, the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM, Blundell and Bond, 1998) and recently developed econometric methods such as the Correlated Common Estimation Pooled - Hausman-Taylor (CCEPHT, Serlenga and Shin, 2007) are applied to analyse the effects of the agreement variable. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of EA on trade flows. However, there is an asymmetric impact of the agreement variable on the trade balance, exports and imports being affected in different ways, which results in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4.
    Keywords: E61 ; F13 ; F15 ; C25 ; ddc:330 ; regionalisation ; trade flows ; trade balance ; panel data methods ; Assoziierung ; Außenhandelsliberalisierung ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Handelsbilanz ; Außenhandelseffekt ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We empirically investigate the determinants of the female decision of investing in post-secondary education, focusing on the role played by the context where young women take their education decision. We first develop a stylized two-period model to analyze the female decision of investing in education and highlight two main determinants: the time to be devoted to child care and the probability of working in a skilled job. We then use data on educational decisions of women in the 17-21 age group drawn from EU-Silc, available for the years 2004-2008. From the same survey we construct context indicators at the regional level, and exploit regional variability to identify how women's educational investment reacts to changes in the surrounding context. We find that the share of working women with children below 5 and the share of women with managerial positions or self-employed positively affect the probability that women enrol in post-secondary education. The same does not hold for men.
    Keywords: J16 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; post-secondary education ; university ; child care time requirement ; managerial positions ; self-employment ; context ; EU-Silc data ; repeated cross-section ; Frauenbildung ; Bildungsinvestition ; Bildungsverhalten ; Studium ; Mütter ; Weibliche Führungskräfte ; Zeitbudgetforschung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 30
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The aim of this paper is to develop a continuous time exchange rate model that allows for heterogeneity of the agents' beliefs, in order to explore non-linearities and possible chaotic behaviour. The theoretical model contains an intrinsic non-linearity that gives rise to a jerk differential equation, which is in principle capable of generating chaos. The model is econometrically estimated in continuous time with Euro/Dollar data and examined for the possible presence of chaotic motion. Our results indicate that the possibility of chaotic dynamics has to be rejected.
    Keywords: F31 ; F37 ; C49 ; C61 ; ddc:330 ; exchange rate ; chaos ; jerk equation ; continuous time econometrics ; Euro ; US-Dollar ; Wechselkurs ; Wechselkurstheorie ; Chaostheorie ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten ; USA
    Language: English
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  • 31
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Distance related variables typically vary in a cross-section dimension but less so in a time dimension across cities, regions, or countries. The enlargement of the EU or the introduction of the euro, however, can be looked upon as integration shocks that are informative of the consequences of changes in distance over time. Border cities or regions are thought to be more affected by these shocks than more central locations because of the larger impact of changes in the transaction costs that go along with EU integration along the border. Both at the urban and regional level, we find a beneficial influence of the EU integration process as measured by the growth in population share along the integration borders, leading to an extra growth rate of about 0.15 percentage points per annum. The positive integration holds on both sides of the integration border, is active for a limited distance (up to 70km) and time period (up to 30 years), and is particularly important for large cities and regions. Despite the positive EU integration effect, being located along a border remains a burden in view of the (larger) negative general border effect. We do not find similar positive border-integration effects as a result of the introduction of the euro.
    Keywords: F15 ; R12 ; R23 ; ddc:330 ; Europäische Integration ; Schock ; Grenzgebiet ; Regionale Entwicklung ; Transaktionskosten ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 32
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: A wide variety of social protection systems coexist within the EU. Some member states provide social insurance that is of Beveridgean inspiration (with universal and more or less flat benefits), while others offer a system that is mainly Bismarckian (with benefits related to past contributions). Labor mobility raises concerns about the sustainability of the most generous and redistributive (Beveridgean) insurance systems. We address this issue in a twocountry setting, where individuals differ in mobility cost (attachment to their native country). A Bismarckian insurance system is not affected by migration while a Beveridgean one is. Our results suggest that the race-to-the-bottom affecting tax rates may be more important under Beveridge-Beveridge competition than under Beveridge-Bismarck competition. Finally, we study the strategic choice of the type of social protection. We show that Bismarckian governments may find it beneficial to adopt a Beveridgean insurance system.
    Keywords: H23 ; H70 ; ddc:330 ; social insurance ; tax competition ; mobility ; economic integration ; Sozialversicherung ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Steuerwettbewerb ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 33
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by liquidity risk, credit risk (financial and sovereign), and interest rate expectations. Our results suggest that liquidity risk is the main determinant of the volatility of the policy spread, but also that private bank credit risk has become more apparent in the post-Lehman collapse phase of the crisis for the euro area as financial CDS premia rose due to possible default fears. In addition, the ECB appears to have been more effective in addressing liquidity risk since the onset of the crisis, and this may be related to its greater direct access to a broader range of counterparties and its acceptance of a broader range of eligible collateral. The main implication is that, in crisis times, a sufficiently flexible operational framework for monetary policy implementation produces the most timely response to market tensions.
    Keywords: C32 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; overnight interest rate spread ; liquidity risk ; credit risk ; stochastic volatility ; Zinsstruktur ; Geldmarkt ; Risikoprämie ; Volatilität ; Bankenliquidität ; Kreditrisiko ; Zinspolitik ; Finanzmarktkrise ; EU-Staaten ; Großbritannien
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether 'old' and 'new' EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether 'new' ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than 'old' ones. We find that country-specific factors (in the form of heterogeneous intercepts) are a crucial determinant of ratings. Whilst 'new' EU countries typically have lower ratings than 'old' ones, after controlling for financial variables we also discover that all countries have significantly different intercepts, confirming our prior belief. This intercept heterogeneity suggests that each country's rating is assigned uniquely, after controlling for differences in financial factors, which may reflect differences in country risk and the legal and regulatory framework that banks face (such as foreclosure laws). In addition, we find that ratings may respond differently to the liquidity and operating expenses to operating income variables across countries. Typically ratings are more responsive to the former and less sensitive to the latter for 'new' EU countries compared with 'old' EU countries.
    Keywords: C25 ; C51 ; C52 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; EU countries ; banks ; ratings ; ordered probit models ; index of indicator variables ; Bank ; Kreditrisiko ; Bewertung ; Ratingagentur ; Regression ; Modell-Spezifikation ; EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Adaptation to climate change is gaining increasing relevance in the public debate of climate policy. However, detailed and regionalised cost estimates as a basis for cost-benefit-analyses are rare. We compose available cost estimates for adaptation in Europe, and in particular Germany, Finland and Italy. Furthermore, a systematic overview on fiscal aspects of adaptation is provided, with focus on budgetary effects of adaptation in the different impact sectors. Combining cost estimates, considerations on fiscal aspects and governmental interventions in adaptation processes, we present data-based guesses of public adaptation costs in the EU, divided by impact sectors. The findings show an expectedly large public burden in the adaptation of transport infrastructure and coastal protection, while high adaptation costs in the agriculture sector are predominantly private. The change in energy demand may well lead to a significant decrease in public expenditure. Considering the regional heterogeneity of adaptation measures and the high uncertainty of quantitative adaptation analyses, further research in the form of bottom-up-studies is needed.
    Keywords: H54 ; Q54 ; Q58 ; ddc:330 ; adaptation ; climate change ; adaptation costs ; fiscal effects ; governmental intervention ; Klimaveränderung ; Wirtschaftliche Anpassung ; Öffentliche Ausgaben ; Infrastrukturpolitik ; Küstenschutz ; Klimaschutz ; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse ; EU-Staaten ; Deutschland ; Finnland ; Italien
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: The Greek bail-out was highly controversial. An oft-heard assessment is that i) the bail-out was a mistake, ii) the political haggling over it was irrational and iii) the bail-out will create a moral hazard problem. Contrary to this view, our analysis suggests that, given EMU's present political-economic set-up, i) the bail-out was unavoidable, ii) the lengthy process of political haggling leading to it was understandable, and iii) the bail-out does not have to be necessarily associated with a future moral hazard problem. Based on our analysis, we suggest that the EMU's institutional design could be improved by establishing 'exit rules' and that bail-outs should be made rule-based. We have based our analysis on a political-economic, game-theoretic model that helps to understand why and how the parties involved in the Greek crisis arrived at the bail-out and on what conditions the final solution depended. The model allows tracing analytically the dynamics of the negotiation processes as well as the conditions and parameters on which the scope and limits of fiscal redistribution in EMU depends. In doing so, we formally take account of the 'negative externality' problem that has been central to policy debates related to the EMU's institutional design and has played an important role in the Greek crisis. However, contrary to the existing literature, we do not only focus on the economic aspects of such negative externality, but also look at where they emanate from and interact with political factors, in particular the dynamics of the political negotiation process within the EMU.
    Keywords: E62 ; F33 ; H77 ; C70 ; ddc:330 ; Greek crisis ; bail-out ; negative externality ; political economics ; game theory ; euro ; EMU ; Öffentliche Schulden ; Staatsbankrott ; Schuldenübernahme ; Griechenland ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Verhandlungen ; Public Choice ; Spieltheorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 37
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This study analyses the impact of economic catching-up on annual inflation rates in the European Union with a special focus on the new member countries of Central and Eastern Europe. Using an array of estimation methods, we show that the Balassa-Samuelson effect is not an important driver of inflation rates. By contrast, we find that the initial price level and regulated prices strongly affect inflation outcomes in a nonlinear manner and that the extension of Engel's Law may hold during periods of very fast growth. We interpret these results as a sign that price level convergence comes from goods, market and non-market service prices. Furthermore, we find that the Phillips curve flattens with a decline in the inflation rate, that inflation is more persistant and that commodity prices have a stronger effect on inflation in a higher inflation environment.
    Keywords: E43 ; E50 ; E52 ; C22 ; G21 ; O52 ; ddc:330 ; European Union ; inflation ; Balassa-Samuelson ; real convergence ; catching up ; Bayesian model average ; non-linearity ; Inflationsrate ; Inflationskonvergenz ; Entwicklungskonvergenz ; Balassa-Samuelson Effekt ; Mikroökonomische Konsumfunktion ; Phillips-Kurve ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten (Osteuropa) ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: It is often argued that tax competition may lead to a 'race to the bottom'. This result may indeed hold in the case of factor mobility (such as capital). However, in this paper we emphasize the unique feature of labor migration, that may nullify the'race to the bottom' hypothesis. Labor migration is governed not only by net-of-tax factor rewards, but rather importantly also by the benefits that the welfare state provides. The paper analyzes fiscal competition with and without migration in a two-country, political-economy, model with labor of different skills. The paper assigns an active fiscal role for both the host and the source countries. It models the host country stylistically as a core EU welfare state, with tax financed benefits and migration policies, and the migration source country as an accession country (following the EU enlargement to 27 states), with its own welfare (tax-benefit) policy. We let these two asymmetric countries (in terms of their productivity) engage in fiscal competition. Using numerical simulations we examine how the migration and tax policies are shaped, and how they are affected by whether the skilled or the unskilled are in power. As the driving force behind migration is a productivity gap, we also analyze the implications of the productivity gap for the design of migration and tax policies.
    Keywords: F22 ; H20 ; ddc:330 ; Steuerwettbewerb ; Sozialstaat ; Migrationspolitik ; Internationale Arbeitsmobilität ; Institutioneller Wettbewerb ; Zwei-Länder-Modell ; Produktivität ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten ; EU-Staaten (Osteuropa)
    Language: English
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  • 39
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: An increasing number of central banks implement monetary policy via two standing facilities: a lending facility and a deposit facility. In this paper we show that it is socially optimal to implement a non-zero interest rate spread. We prove this result in a dynamic general equilibrium model where market participants have heterogeneous liquidity needs and where the central bank requires government bonds as collateral. We also calibrate the model and discuss the behavior of the money market rate and the volumes traded at the ECB's deposit and lending facilities in response to the recent financial crisis.
    Keywords: E52 ; E58 ; E59 ; ddc:330 ; monetary policy ; open market ; operations ; standing facilities ; Geldpolitik ; Offenmarktpolitik ; Mindestreservepolitik ; Zinsstruktur ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Geldmarkt ; Finanzmarktkrise ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 40
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Remittances have greatly increased during recent years, becoming an important and reliable source of funds for many developing countries. Therefore, there is a strong incentive for receiving countries to attract more remittances, especially through formal channels that turn to be either less expensive or less risky. One way of doing so is to increase their financial openness, but this policy option might generate additional costs in terms of macroeconomic volatility. In this paper we investigate the link between remittance receipts and financial openness. We develop a small model and statistically test for the existence of such a relationship with a sample of 66 mostly developing countries from 1980-2005. Empirically we use a dynamic generalized ordered logit model to deal with the categorical nature of the financial openness policy. We apply a two-step method akin to two stage least squares to deal with the endogeneity of remittances and potential measurement errors. We find a strong positive statistical and economic effect of remittances on financial openness.
    Keywords: E60 ; F24 ; F41 ; O10 ; ddc:330 ; remittances ; financial openness ; government policy ; Rücküberweisung (Migranten) ; Kapitalmarktliberalisierung ; Offene Volkswirtschaft ; Makroökonomischer Einfluss ; EU-Staaten ; Schwellenländer
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: In the past two decades privatisation and liberalisation of network industries providing services of general economic interest (SGEI), have been particularly significant in the European Union. Wide variations around a common policy trend can, however, be observed across countries and sectors. We focus on electricity and gas sectors because energy sectors have usually been profit makers, not affected by direct government transfers, in contrast to other SGEI. We study the effects of privatisation and other reforms on consumer prices using both subjective data on consumers' perception of utility prices and data on average prices paid.
    Keywords: L94 ; L95 ; L33 ; ddc:330 ; privatisation ; electricity ; gas ; reforms ; Stromtarif ; Gaspreis ; Elektrizitätswirtschaft ; Gaswirtschaft ; Privatisierung ; Deregulierung ; EU-Binnenmarkt ; Wirkungsanalyse ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This study assesses the short and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields in OECD countries, for the period 1973-2008. We employ a dynamic panel approach to reflect financial and economic integration, and to increase the performance and accuracy of the tests. Given the existence of cross-country dependence regarding sovereign yields and its determinants, we resort to simulation and bootstrap methods for the analysis. Results based on the Common Correlated Effect estimator of Pesaran (2006) and on Panel Error Correction Models to sort out short- and long-run fiscal developments show that in addition to common movements in sovereign yields, investors also consider country differences arising from specific factors (inflation, budgetary and current account imbalances, real effective exchange rates, and liquidity).
    Keywords: C23 ; E43 ; E62 ; G15 ; H62 ; ddc:330 ; long-term yields ; EU ; financial integration ; panel cointegration ; bootstrap ; Rendite ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Laufzeit ; Internationaler Finanzmarkt ; Marktintegration ; Schätzung ; OECD-Staaten ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 43
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: Using six years of firm-level data covering 224 regions of the enlarged European Union, we evaluate the importance to a firm of locating its activities (production, headquarters, R&D, logistics and sales) close together. We find that, after controlling for regional characteristics, being closely located to a previous investment positively affects firm location choice. However, the impact of distance is dependent on the type of investment (production or service). While within-firm co-location is important for both service and production activities, only production plants are likely to be located close to prior production investments. In this latter case, national borders have a surprisingly positive effect, increasing the probability of choosing a nearby location, but on the other side of the border.
    Keywords: F23 ; L22 ; R30 ; ddc:330 ; functional fragmentation ; vertical linkages ; location choice ; Multinationales Unternehmen ; Standortwahl ; Entfernung ; Lieferanten-Kunden-Beziehung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 44
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: In the current debate on the reasons and implications of the Greek and Irish euro crisis, the intra-European current account imbalances have gained rising attention. Whereas Greece and Ireland struggle for austerity in private and public spending, Germany is urged to reduce its current account surplus by increasing wages to forestall a new build-up of unsustainable intra-E(M)U indebtedness. We analyse the emergence of intra-European imbalances since the year 1990 based on the theory of optimum currency areas. We show that the asymmetric shock of the German unification can be seen not only as the origin of the 1992/93 crisis of the European Monetary System, but also for the rising intra-European current account imbalances since the euro introduction and thereby the current European debt crisis. Based on this finding we argue that an increase of German spending to reduce its current account surplus is not only in the interest of German taxpayers to contain financial risk, but would also impose austerity on the rest of Europe. The resulting new wave of crisis could trigger a new round of monetary expansion in the EMU.
    Keywords: E21 ; F15 ; F32 ; F36 ; ddc:330 ; monetary union ; German unification ; asymmetric shock ; current account imbalances ; inter-temporal savings ; financial crisis ; euro crisis ; European debt crisis ; theory of optimum currency areas ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Leistungsbilanz ; Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewicht ; Optimaler Währungsraum ; Zeitpräferenz ; Währungskrise ; Finanzmarktkrise ; EU-Staaten ; Nationale Einheit ; Schock ; Deutschland
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: The additionality principle says that the funds of the European Union should not replace, but be an addition to national regional policy funds. The benchmark for the co-funding is that the EU bears 50% of total costs associated with regional projects eligible for EU support. In some regions, however, the EU contribution has reached 85% of total costs. This study examines how such additionality degrees are determined. Our findings indicate that the regional variation of additionality degrees is largely in line with EU cohesion policy goals. Most notably, higher shares of EU funds are provided to regions with lower GDP per capita. Furthermore, while the share of service-sector employees in a region is negatively related to the additionality degree, the impact of the rate of long-term unemployment is positive.
    Keywords: H71 ; H77 ; H87 ; O18 ; R11 ; R58 ; ddc:330 ; additionality ; cohesion policy ; EU regions ; matching grant ; growth and distribution ; EU-Regionalfonds ; EU-Regionalpolitik ; Regionalpolitik ; Regionale Disparität ; Sozialprodukt ; Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: We study the impact of barriers to entry on workplace training. Our theoretical model indicates that there are two contrasting effects of deregulation on training. With a given number of firms, deregulation reduces the size of rents per unit of output that firms can reap by training their employees. Yet, the number of firms increases, thereby raising output and profit gains from training and improving investment incentives. The latter effect always prevails. Our empirical analysis, based on repeated cross-section data from 15 European countries and 12 industries, confirms the predictions of the model and shows that deregulation increases training incidence.
    Keywords: J24 ; L11 ; O43 ; ddc:330 ; training ; product market competition ; Europe ; Deregulierung ; Markteintritt ; Betriebliche Bildungsarbeit ; Bildungsinvestition ; Theorie ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 47
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: We briefly review the theoretical and empirical consequences of discretionary fiscal policy changes, after which we provide our own estimates for the EU countries. A fiscal expansion raises output and consumption and reduces the trade balance. Moreover, the stimulating effect of higher government purchases is weaker and the trade balance reduction is larger for more open EU economies, consistent with larger leakage effects. Further direct estimates suggest that fiscal expansions in large EU economies have non-negligible consequences for economic activity in the main trading partners. This provides a rationale for the concerted fiscal expansion recently initiated by the European Commission.
    Keywords: E62 ; F41 ; F42 ; ddc:330 ; Finanzpolitik ; Diskretionäre Politik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Handelsbilanz ; Konjunkturzusammenhang ; Internationale wirtschaftspolitische Koordination ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 48
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: This paper examines the process of price discovery in the MTS system, which builds on the parallel quoting of euro-denominated government securities on a number of (relatively large) domestic markets and on a (relatively small) European marketplace (EuroMTS). Using twenty-seven months of daily data for 107 pairs of bonds, we present unambiguous evidence that trades on EuroMTS have a sizeable informational content.
    Keywords: C32 ; G10 ; ddc:330 ; MTS system ; price discovery ; Öffentliche Anleihe ; Euromarkt ; Börsenkurs ; Effizienzmarktthese ; Informationswert ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 49
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2016-05-23
    Description: Despite the fact that many aggregates are nonlinear functions and the aggregation weights of many macroeconomic aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed, time-invariant aggregation weights. In this study a framework for nonlinear contemporaneous aggregation with possibly stochastic or time-varying weights is developed and different predictors for an aggregate are compared theoretically as well as with simulations. Two examples based on European unemployment and inflation series are used to illustrate the virtue of the theoretical setup and the forecasting results.
    Keywords: C32 ; ddc:330 ; forecasting ; stochastic aggregation ; autoregression ; moving average ; vector autoregressive process ; Aggregation ; Prognoseverfahren ; Stochastischer Prozess ; Autokorrelation ; VAR-Modell ; Zeitreihenanalyse ; Arbeitslosigkeit ; Inflation ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 50
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper formulates a dynamic Random Coefficient Model (RCM) to consider a set of popular determinants of public deficits in the EU-15 over the period 1971-2006, both at a country-specific level and from a population-wide perspective. Although the extent of government deficits and debt has been one of the most debated macroeconomic issues in recent times, the models trying to capture the explanatory powers driving these deficits typically estimate models that pose the strict assumption of homogeneity on the coefficients over all countries in the model. The sensibility of this assumption will be investigated, with results showing that an increase in the degree of heterogeneity leads to an improvement in the model fit and provides additional information to nuance the effects of the explanatory variables. In this way, the paper exposes a limited degree of partisanship over all countries under consideration, but on the other hand provides evidence for opportunistic behaviour of policymakers in the major part of the sample. The effect of institutional changes following the enforcement of the Maastricht Treaty varies over the countries and is related to the necessity of budgetary consolidation.
    Keywords: C11 ; E6 ; H6 ; H87 ; ddc:330 ; Fiscal policy ; European Monetary Union ; Random coefficient model ; Bayesian analysis ; Finanzpolitik ; Haushaltsdefizit ; Public Choice ; Europäische Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion ; Konvergenzkriterien ; Zustandsraummodell ; Schätzung ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 51
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
    Description: This paper analyzes pension reforms in Europe and their determinants. As pension reforms are intrinsically difficult to define and pinpoint, we introduce an alternative measure of pension reforms by comparing long-term forecasts of pension expenditures for seventeen European countries. The larger the decrease in expected spending on public pensions in 2050 between two base years, the more successful a pension reform the country achieved (after controlling for other factors, such as demography). Our analysis shows that the reform effort varies widely across countries and over time. Indeed, only three countries in the EU managed to reduce their expected spending on pensions in both reference periods. In the second part of the paper, we analyze factors that may facilitate or hamper pension reform quality of fiscal institutions, public debt, trade unions' influence, and also demographic factors. Only the measure of trade union power pr