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  • 1
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-02-07
    Description: In this article, we investigate the role of several types of educational mismatch in explaining labour market transitions of workers with secondary and higher education. We focus on transitions from employment to unemployment and on job changes, to assess whether mismatch is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. In the first case, as suggested by matching models, mismatch will be eliminated through job-to-job transitions. In the second case, it might be permanent and caused by employment discontinuity and deskilling processes. By using information from the Italian Survey of Professions (ICP) and the Survey on Labour Participation and Unemployment (PLUS), we calculate three measures of vertical mismatch. This allows comparing the outcomes from self-reported and revealed match measures in order to assess the robustness of the results. In addition, we use a measure of horizontal mismatch and evaluated the effect of Routine Bias Technical change (RBTC) in terms of unemployment risk, through a Routine Task Index (RTI) calculated on Italian data. Results indicate that mismatched workers are at risk of long-term unemployment. More specifically, among workers with higher education, the risk is due to mismatches in the field of studies whereas for secondary educated workers, over-education is the main cause of unemployment risk. The effect of the RTI is often not significant. This adds evidence to the problem of skill gap in Italy, as educational choices are not aligned to market needs. In this respect, both demand side and supply side policies are needed to allow firms to better use this human capital.
    Keywords: D91 ; J24 ; J64 ; J82 ; ddc:330 ; higher education ; over-education ; educational mismatch ; routine bias technical change ; unemployment ; Italy
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2020-02-08
    Description: Paid parental leave schemes have been shown to increase women's employment rates but decrease their wages in case of extended leave durations. In view of these potential trade-offs, many countries are discussing the optimal design of parental leave policies. We analyze the impact of a major parental leave reform on mothers' long-term earnings. The 2007 German parental leave reform replaced a means-tested benefit with a more generous earnings-related benefit that is granted for a shorter period of time. Additionally, a "daddy quota" of two months was introduced. To identify the causal effect of this policy on long-run earnings of mothers, we use a difference-in-difference approach that compares labor market outcomes of mothers who gave birth just before and right after the reform and nets out seasonal effects by including the year before. Using administrative social security data, we confirm previous findings and show that the average duration of employment interruptions increased for high-income mothers. Nevertheless, we find a positive long-run effect on earnings for mothers in this group. This effect cannot be explained by changes in working hours, observed characteristics, changes in employer stability or fertility patterns. Descriptive evidence suggests that the stronger involvement of fathers, incentivized by the "daddy months", could have facilitated mothers' re-entry into the labor market and thereby increased earnings. For mothers with low prior-to-birth earnings, however, we do not find any beneficial labor market effects of this parental leave reform.
    Keywords: H31 ; J13 ; J22 ; J24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; parental leave ; wages ; labor supply
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Description: This paper investigates the presence of explicit labour-saving heuristics within robotic patents. It analyses innovative actors engaged in robotic technology and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies the technological fields particularly exposed to labour-saving innovations. It exploits advanced natural language processing and probabilistic topic modelling techniques on the universe of patent applications at the USPTO between 2009 and 2018, matched with ORBIS (Bureau van Dijk) firm-level dataset. The results show that labour-saving patent holders comprise not only robots producers, but also adopters. Consequently, labour-saving robotic patents appear along the entire supply chain. The paper shows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).
    Keywords: O33 ; J24 ; C38 ; ddc:330 ; Robotic Patents ; Labour-Saving Technology ; Search Heuristics ; Probabilistic Topic Models
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-02-15
    Description: This study aims to fill the gap in our understanding about exposure to particulate matters with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and attributable risks and economic costs of mental disorders (MDs). We identify the relationship between PM2.5 and risk of hospital admissions (HAs) for MDs in Beijing and measure the attributable risk and economic cost. We apply a generalized additive model (GAM) with controls for time trend, meteorological conditions, holidays and day of the week. Stratified analyses are performed by age, gender and season. We further estimate health and economic burden of HAs for MDs attributable to PM2.5. A total of 17,252 HAs for MDs are collected. We show that PM2.5 accounts for substantial morbidity and economic burden of MDs. Specifically, a 10 μg/m3 daily increase in PM2.5 is associated with a 3.55% increase in the risk of HAs for MDs, and the effect is more pronounced for older males in colder weather. According to the WHO's air quality guidelines, 15.12 percent of HAs and 16.19 percent of related medical expenses for MDs are respectively attributable to PM2.5.
    Keywords: Q51 ; Q53 ; I24 ; I31 ; G11 ; G41 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; Attributable risk ; Economic cost ; Hospital admissions ; Mental disorders ; PM2.5
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2020-02-27
    Description: We analyze self-selection of refugees and irregular migrants and test our theory in the context of the European refugee crisis. Using unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls, we provide the first large-scale evidence on reasons to emigrate, and the self-selection and sorting of refugees and irregular migrants. Refugees and female irregular migrants are positively self-selected with respect to human capital, while male irregular migrants are negatively self-selected. These patterns are similar when analyzing individually stated main reason to emigrate, country-level conflict intensity, and sub-regional conflict intensity. Migrants respond to economic incentives and border policies.
    Keywords: F22 ; J15 ; J16 ; J24 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; international migration ; refugees ; irregular migrants ; self-selection ; human capital ; gender differences in migration
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-04
    Description: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and discuss the on-the-job resilience strategies of mismatched workers. We empirically focus on Egyptian workers.Design/Methodology/Approach – This study relies on a primary micro-data collection based on design and implementation of a self-administered questionnaire survey and on the conduction of a series of semi-structured interviews. Findings – The results are fourfold: first, the combination of over-qualification and under-skilling is the most frequent in our sample; second, resilience strategies adopted by over-skilled workers mainly depend on mobility and entry to entrepreneurship; third, under-skilled workers do not enter entrepreneurship, but tend to rely on informal on-the-job learning and training opportunities. Fourth, religion and spirituality play a transversal role to cope with adversity for all of our interviewed workers. Originality/value – This study is unique as it draws our attention on factors of resilience for mismatched workers in a developing country, Egypt.
    Keywords: J24 ; E24 ; C81 ; ddc:330 ; resilience strategies ; skill mismatches ; qualification mismatches ; Egypt
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-05
    Description: This paper provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the employment performance of first- and second-generation immigrants in Belgium compared to that of natives. Using detailed quarterly data for the period 2008-2014, we find not only that first-generation immigrants face a substantial employment penalty (up to -36% points) vis-à-vis their native counterparts, but also that their descendants continue to face serious difficulties in accessing the labour market. The social elevator appears to be broken for descendants of two non-EU-born immigrants. Immigrant women are also found to be particularly affected. Among the key drivers of access to employment, we find: i) education for the descendants of non-EU-born immigrants, and ii) proficiency in the host country language, citizenship acquisition, and (to a lesser extent) duration of residence for first-generation immigrants. Finally, estimates suggest that around a decade is needed for the employment gap between refugees and other foreign-born workers to be (largely) suppressed.
    Keywords: J15 ; J16 ; J21 ; J24 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; First- and second-generation immigrants ; employment ; moderating factors
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2020-03-05
    Description: Skilled labor is a key input to the innovation process. A shortage in supply of skilled labor may hence impede innovation activities, resulting in lower productivity gains. While governments are concerned about these likely negative impacts, there is only limited empirical evidence whether and to what extent labor shortage affects innovation activities. The paper addresses this question using panel data from three waves (2017 to 2019) of the German innovation survey. We measure labor shortage by job openings that could not be filled at all, not with the required skills or only with significant delay, distinguishing different skill levels. We analyze whether labor shortage resulted in stopping or abandoning of innovation projects. Endogeneity issues are tackled by instrumental variable estimation techniques. Our results show that innovative firms are more likely to be subject to skill shortage, whereas skill shortage induces the cancelation of innovation projects. Effects are stronger for labor shortage related to professional occupations and less for academic qualifications.
    Keywords: J23 ; J24 ; O31 ; C26 ; ddc:330 ; community Innovation Survey ; labor shortage ; innovation ; probit instrumental variable estimation
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-05
    Description: In recent years, there has been an escalation of concern revolving around the effect that automation will have on the future of work. This anxiety has fueled the public and academic debate, fearing that soon this technology will displace jobs at a large scale. Numerous studies have begun to investigate automation's impact on labor markets, although all have focused on industrialized nations, which consist of more service and skilled occupations. Utilizing the World Bank's STEP Skills Measurement Program Database, we examine automation's effect on 10 developing countries throughout Latin America, Africa, and Asia. To address the heterogeneity of occupations across the country, we apply a task-based approach and re-calibrate the effect of automation on labor market while analyzing the task structure across countries. Modeling off previous studies, we created an expectation-maximization algorithm to predict the percentage of tasks that are likely to be automated. Jobs whose task automation output was 70% or higher were then considered to be highly automatable. Our results suggest that these developing countries have higher levels of predicted automation risk. Countries range in their level of highly automatable jobs from the lowest being Yunnan -a Chinese province- with 7.7% to the highest of Ghana with 42.4%. We find that occupations containing relatively more routine tasks are more likely to be automated, while workers with a higher level of education reduce their risks. This is the first paper to estimate automation risk rates for developing nations.
    Keywords: J23 ; J24 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; Automation ; Developing economies ; digitalization ; technological change ; labor demand
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-06
    Description: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the mechanisms underlying hiring discrimination against transgender men. Design/methodology/approach - The authors conduct a scenario experiment with final-year business students in which fictitious hiring decisions are made about transgender or cisgender male job candidates. More importantly, these candidates are scored on statements related to theoretical reasons for hiring discrimination given in the literature. The resulting data are analysed using a bivariate analysis. Additionally, a multiple mediation model is run. Findings - Suggestive evidence is found for co-worker and customer taste-based discrimination, but not for employer taste-based discrimination. In addition, results show that transgender men are perceived as being in worse health, being more autonomous and assertive, and have a lower probability to go on parental leave, compared with cisgender men, revealing evidence for (positive and negative) statistical discrimination. Social implications - Targeted policy measures are needed given the substantial labour market discrimination against transgender individuals measured in former studies. However, to combat this discrimination effectively, one needs to understand its underlying mechanisms. This study provides the first comprehensive exploration of these mechanisms. Originality/value - This study innovates in being one of the first to explore the relative empirical importance of dominant (theoretical) explanations for hiring discrimination against transgender men. Thereby, the authors take the logical next step in the literature on labour market discrimination against transgender individuals.
    Keywords: J15 ; J71 ; J16 ; J24 ; J23 ; ddc:330 ; Transgender men ; fictitious hiring decisions ; theories of discrimination ; signalling ; scenario experiment ; risk aversion
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-12
    Description: Identifying the determinants of intergenerational mobility is an important aim in the development literature. In this article, intergenerational transmission is examined for 6 neglected Latin American Economies (Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama and Puerto Rico). We use a multinomial logit model of the determinants of choosing a white-collar job for a child of a father working in farming as compared to a child whose father had a blue- or a white-collar job. Our findings show that, in the studied countries, intergenerational occupation transmission is mainly linked to low skilled jobs. Our analysis confirms the low degree of social mobility typical of Latin America, contributing, in turn, to explain their low growth rate. Our findings help identifying specific target groups - talented young women coming from the agricultural sector - to develop in them soft skills while at primary or low secondary school and work-related skills while at the high secondary school or at the university.
    Keywords: D60 ; I30 ; J24 ; J6 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; Intergenerational occupational mobility ; Intergenerational mobility ; Latin American countries
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-12
    Description: As work changes, firm-provided training may become more relevant for good economic and social outcomes. However, so far there is little or no causal evidence about the effects of training on firms. This paper studies a large training grants programme in Portugal, contrasting successful firms that received the grants and unsuccessful firms that did not. Combining several rich data sets, we compare a large number of potential outcomes of these firms, while following them over long periods of time before and after the grant decision. Our difference-in-differences models estimate significant positive effects on take up (training hours and expenditure), with limited deadweight; and that such additional training led to increased sales, value added, employment, productivity, and exports. These effects tend to be of at least 5% and, in some cases, 10% or more.
    Keywords: J24 ; H43 ; M53 ; ddc:330 ; Training subsidies ; Productivity ; Counterfactual evaluation
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-17
    Description: As China's firms upgrade their position in the quality ladder, vocational education may become more important. In this paper, we study returns to secondary vocational education in China paying attention to individual heterogeneity. We use instrumental variables based on geographical and longitudinal changes in enrolment to address the selection between the two types of education. We find that vocational education provides a wage premium vis-à-vis academic education of over 30% but which applies only for individuals at the middle of the conditional wage distribution.
    Keywords: I26 ; I25 ; J24 ; J31 ; C36 ; ddc:330 ; Human capital ; vocational education ; quantile treatment effects
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This article reviews the recent literature in economics on small-scale entrepreneurship ("microentrepreneurship") in low-income countries. Major themes in the literature include the determinants and consequences of joining the formal sector; the impacts of access to credit and other financial services; the impacts of business training; barriers to hiring; and the distinction between self-employment by necessity and self-employment as a calling. The article devotes special attention to unique issues that arise with female entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: L26 ; J16 ; J24 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: The social and the private returns to education differ when education can increase productivity, and also be used to signal productivity. We show how instrumental variables can be used to separately identify and estimate the social and private returns to education within the employer learning framework of Farber and Gibbons [1996] and Altonji and Pierret [2001]. What an instrumental variable identifies depends crucially on whether the instrument is hidden from, or observed by, the employers. If the instrument is hidden then it identifies the private returns to education, but if the instrument is observed by employers then it identifies the social returns to education. Interestingly, however, among experienced workers the instrument identifies the social returns to education, regardless of whether or not it is hidden. We operationalize this approach using local variation in compulsory schooling laws across multiple cohorts in Norway. Our preferred estimates indicate that the social return to an additional year of education is 5%, and the private internal rate of return, aggregating the returns over the life-cycle, is 7.2%. Thus, 70% of the private returns to education can be attributed to education raising productivity and 30% to education signaling workers' ability.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; D83 ; ddc:330 ; signaling ; human capital ; employer learning ; instruments
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Low employability among specific populations (e.g., religious/traditional women, the elderly, disabled workers, immigrants) has unfavorable consequences on the: unemployed individual, society, and the state economy. The latter include: poverty, a heavy toll on welfare budgets, diminished growth, and an increase in the "dependency ratio". We suggest a rather novel policy (borrowed from the field of Career Psychology) that could lead to successful integration into the labor market of low-employability populations: the design of tailor-made training programs that respond to work motives; coupled with a working environment that caters to special needs/restrictions; and complemented with counseling and monitoring. The suggested strategy was illustrated and investigated using a case study of Israeli ultra-religious women, who exhibit lower employment rates than other Israeli women. The motives behind their occupational choices were explored based on data collected by a field experiment. Factor Analysis was then employed to sort out the motives behind their occupational choices, and regression analysis was used to associate job satisfaction with work motivation. Policy implications were suggested based on the findings. There is already some evidence on the successful outcomes of the proposed strategy.
    Keywords: D13 ; D91 ; I38 ; J08 ; J24 ; Z12 ; ddc:330 ; low-employability ; ultra-Orthodox/religious (Haredi) ; Israel ; occupation ; motives ; job satisfaction ; old-age dependency-ratio
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This study aims to fill the gap in our understanding about exposure to particulate matters with diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) and attributable risks and economic costs of mental disorders (MDs). We identify the relationship between PM2.5 and risk of hospital admissions (HAs) for MDs in Beijing and measure the attributable risk and economic cost. We apply a generalized additive model (GAM) with controls for time trend, meteorological conditions, holidays and day of the week. Stratified analyses are performed by age, gender and season. We further estimate health and economic burden of HAs for MDs attributable to PM2.5. A total of 17,252 HAs for MDs are collected. We show that PM2.5 accounts for substantial morbidity and economic burden of MDs. Specifically, a 10 μg/m3 daily increase in PM2.5 is associated with a 3.55% increase in the risk of HAs for MDs, and the effect is more pronounced for older males in colder weather. According to the WHO's air quality guidelines, 15.12 percent of HAs and 16.19 percent of related medical expenses for MDs are respectively attributable to PM2.5.
    Keywords: Q51 ; Q53 ; I24 ; I31 ; G11 ; G41 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; attributable risk ; economic cost ; hospital admissions ; mental disorders ; PM2.5
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: In this paper we examine the education and occupation mismatch for Hispanics in the US using a novel objective continuous mismatch index and explore the role of immigrants' social networks on this mismatch. We explore whether having a larger social network helps Hispanics in finding jobs that better match with their skill and education levels or whether living in areas with larger concentration of Hispanics leads to more competition for the same jobs in the labor market. Given that the legal status of immigrants influence how the social networks are leveraged and their impact on labor market outcomes, we focus on the citizenship status for Hispanics. The quality of match between Hispanic's college degree major and occupation is measured using one of the continuous indices proposed in Rios-Avila and Saavedra-Caballero (2019) and calculated using pooled data for all college graduates in the US from 2010 to 2017. The Hispanic networks measures are constructed as the share of Hispanic population who are 25 years or older with respect to the total population of the same age and the second measure only includes Hispanics with at least a bachelor's degree using the weighted pooled data from 2010 to 2015. We find that networks have a positive impact on the job-match quality, but mostly for Hispanic citizens and this effect is stronger when the networks constitutes of at least a college degree. This shows that Hispanic citizens living in higher concentration of Hispanic college graduates are better able to leverage their networks or their networks are better able to match them with jobs closer to their field of specialization and skill set.
    Keywords: J15 ; J24 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; education-occupation mismatch ; horizontal mismatch ; social networks ; hispanics ; citizenship
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Modern women often face an uneasy choice: dedicating their time to reproductive household work, or joining the workforce and spending time away from home and household duties. Both choices are associated with benefits, as well as non-trivial costs, and necessarily involve some trade-offs, influencing the general feeling of happiness women experience given their decision. The trade-offs are especially pronounced in traditional developing countries, where both the pressure for women to stay at home and the need to earn additional income are strong, making the choice even more controversial. To understand the implications of this choice on the happiness of women in these types of countries we compare housewives and working women of the South Caucasus region. The rich data collected annually by the Caucasus Research Resource Center allows us to match working women with their housewife counterparts and to compare the level of happiness across the two groups – separately for each country as well as for Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities residing in Georgia. We find a significant negative happiness gap for working women in Armenia and in Azerbaijan, but not in Georgia. The absence of such a gap among the Armenian and Azerbaijani minorities of Georgia indicates that the gap is mostly a country- rather than an ethnicity-specific effect.
    Keywords: I31 ; J16 ; J21 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; female employment ; reproductive housework ; life satisfaction and happiness ; propensity score matching
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This paper presents a life-cycle model with human capital investment during working life through training and provides a novel empirical test of human capital theory. We exploit a sizable pension reform across adjacent cohorts in a regression discontinuity setting and find that an increase in working life increases training. We discuss and test further predictions regarding the relation between initial schooling, training, and the reform effect, showing that only individuals with a college degree increase human capital investment. Our results speak to a large class of human capital models as well as policies extending or shortening working life.
    Keywords: J24 ; J26 ; H21 ; ddc:330 ; human capital ; retirement policies ; RDD
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Background: Home visiting programs constitute an important policy to support vulnerable families with young children. They mainly aim to improve infant-parent relationships, however evidence on their effectiveness based on observational measures is relatively scarce. The present study provides the rare opportunity to directly examine the effects of a home visiting program, the Pro Kind, on mother-child interactions in a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Methods: A sample of 109 mother-child dyads was videotaped during a 3-min typical play situation at the participants' homes when the child was aged 25 months. We use a novel micro-coding system which allows us to examine how the intervention affected the dynamic feedback responses of both mothers and children in three key measures of behavior: orientation, positive contingency, and negative/lack of contingency. The study is registered in the German Clinical Trial Register (trial ID: DRKS00007554, date of registration: 11 June 2015). Results: The intervention significantly improved the interactions between girls and their mothers, both in strongly stable and partly unstable situations. Mixed impacts were detected for boys. Conclusions: These results have important implications for the analysis of mother-child interactions data and the design of home visiting programs.
    Keywords: I14 ; J13 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; home visiting ; mother-child interactions ; randomized controlled trial
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: We propose a simple theory of under- and over-employment. Individuals of high type can perform both skilled and unskilled jobs, but only a fraction of low-type workers can perform skilled jobs. People have different non-pecuniary values over these jobs, akin to a Roy model. We calibrate two versions of the model to match moments of 17 OECD economies, considering separately education and skills mismatch. The cost of mismatch is 3% of output on average but varies between -1% to 9% across countries. The key variable that explains the output cost of mismatch is not the percentage of mismatched workers but their wage relative to well-matched workers.
    Keywords: E24 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; education mismatch ; skill mismatch
    Language: English
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  • 23
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: I study the long-term effects of landing a first job at a large firm versus a small one using Spanish social security data. Size could be a relevant employer attribute for inexperienced workers since large firms are associated with greater training, higher wages, and enhanced productivity. The key empirical challenge is selection into first jobs – for instance, more able people may land jobs at large firms. I address this challenge developing an instrumental-variables approach that, while keeping business-cycle conditions fixed, leverages variation in the composition of labor demand that labor-market entrants face. I find that initially matching with a larger firm substantially improves long-term outcomes such as lifetime income, and that these benefits persist through subsequent jobs. Additional results point to mechanisms related to search frictions and better skill-development at large firms. Together, these findings shed light on how heterogeneous firms persistently impact young workers' trajectories.
    Keywords: E24 ; J23 ; J24 ; J31 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; first job ; employer size ; firm heterogeneity ; young workers ; lifetime income ; on-the-job skills
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: While vocational education is meant to provide occupational-specific skills that are directly employable, their returns may be limited in fast-changing economies. Conversely, general education should provide learning skills, but these may have little value at low levels of education. This paper sheds light on this debate by exploiting a recent Spanish reform that postpones students' choice between these two educational pathways from age 14 to 16. To identify exogenous changes in its staggered implementation, we instrument this with the pre-reform across-province variation in the share of students in general education. Results indicate that, by shifting educational investment from vocational to general education after age 16, the reform improves occupational outcomes, and results in a significant rise in monthly wages. The effects are larger after the financial crisis, but are concentrated among middle to high-skilled individuals. In contrast, those who acquire only basic general education have worse long-term employment prospects than vocationally-trained individuals.
    Keywords: I26 ; I28 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; general versus vocational education ; heterogeneous returns ; financial crisis
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: We analyze inequality and mobility across generations in a dynastic economy. Nurture, in terms of bequests and the schooling investment into the next generation, is observable but the draw of nature in terms of ability is hidden, stochastic and persistent across generations. We calibrate the model to U.S. data to illustrate mechanisms through which nurture and nature affect mobility and the transmission of income inequality across generations, thus complementing the vast empirical literature. To provide a benchmark for the observed status quo, we solve for the social optimum in which the planner weighs dynasties equally and chooses optimal tax schedules subject to incentive compatibility. Analyzing the transition from the calibrated steady state to this social optimum, we find that insurance against intergenerational ability risk increases on the transition path by making welfare of family dynasties more dependent on nurture relative to nature. The insurance comes at the cost of less social mobility. We compare welfare in the social optimum and economies with a simple history-independent tax and subsidy system.
    Keywords: E24 ; H21 ; I24 ; J24 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; human capital ; schooling ; bequests ; asymmetric information ; intergenerational mobility ; inequality
    Language: English
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: The U.S. economy has experienced a significant drop in the fraction of the population employed in middle wage, "routine task-intensive" occupations. Applying machine learning techniques, we identify characteristics of those who used to be employed in such occupations and show they are now less likely to work in routine occupations. Instead, they are either non-participants in the labor force or working at occupations that tend to occupy the bottom of the wage distribution. We then develop a quantitative, heterogeneous agent, general equilibrium model of labor force participation, occupational choice, and capital investment. This allows us to quantify the role of advancement in automation technology in accounting for these labor market changes. We then use this framework as a laboratory to evaluate various public policies aimed at addressing the disappearance of routine employment and its consequent impacts on inequality.
    Keywords: E22 ; E24 ; J23 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; polarization ; automation ; routine employment ; labor force participation ; universal basic income ; unemployment insurance ; retraining
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This article reviews the recent literature in economics on small-scale entrepreneurship ("microentrepreneurship") in low-income countries. Major themes in the literature include the determinants and consequences of joining the formal sector; the impacts of access to credit and other financial services; the impacts of business training; barriers to hiring; and the distinction between self-employment by necessity and self-employment as a calling. The article devotes special attention to unique issues that arise with female entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: L26 ; J16 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; small businesses ; female entrepreneurship ; self-employment ; informal sector
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This paper provides a rationale for the revival of protectionism, based on the rise of the educated class. In a trade model with heterogeneous workers and entrepreneurs, globalization generates aggregate gains but has distributional effects, which can be attenuated through taxation. By playing a two-stage political game, citizens decide on trade openness and the extent of redistribution. In this setting, trade liberalization is politically viable as long as the losers from trade are compensated through the redistributive mechanism. When skilled workers account for a large share of the population, however, there may be limited political support for redistribution, and those who are left behind by globalization – namely unskilled workers and importing-sector entrepreneurs – can form a coalition to impose protectionist measures. We then build a dynamic version of the model, where human capital accumulation is driven by public education. Our analysis suggests that globalization – by favoring the ascent of the educated class and thus eroding the political support for redistribution – may ultimately breed its own decline.
    Keywords: D72 ; F68 ; I24 ; J24 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; trade ; redistribution ; political economy ; human capital accumulation
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: The social and the private returns to education differ when education can increase productivity, and also be used to signal productivity. We show how instrumental variables can be used to separately identify and estimate the social and private returns to education within the employer learning framework of Farber and Gibbons [1996] and Altonji and Pierret [2001]. What an instrumental variable identifies depends crucially on whether the instrument is hidden from, or observed by, the employers. If the instrument is hidden then it identifies the private returns to education, but if the instrument is observed by employers then it identifies the social returns to education. Interestingly, however, among experienced workers the instrument identifies the social returns to education, regardless of whether or not it is hidden. We operationalize this approach using local variation in compulsory schooling laws across multiple cohorts in Norway. Our preferred estimates indicate that the social return to an additional year of education is 5%, and the private internal rate of return, aggregating the returns over the life-cycle, is 7.2%. Thus, 70% of the private returns to education can be attributed to education raising productivity and 30% to education signaling workers' ability.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; D83 ; ddc:330 ; signaling ; human capital ; employer learning ; instruments
    Language: English
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  • 30
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: We study the relationship between age and influence in a closed group of 1,000 leading economists. We consider, as a measurement of influence, monthly RePEc rankings. We find that the rankings are not related to age but are related to experience. The optimal level of experience is 30 years from Ph.D. graduation. Additionally, we observe no robust difference in the effect of age and experience between Nobel laureates and leading non-Nobelists. Finally, we find that labor economists enjoy an especially steep improvement in the rankings before they reach the peak; however, the rankings also peak relatively early in their careers.
    Keywords: J24 ; ddc:330 ; aging ; citations ; influence ; Nobel ; research productivity
    Language: English
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  • 31
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This research establishes the influence of linguistic traits on human behavior. Exploiting variations in the languages spoken by children of migrants with identical ancestral countries of origin, the analysis indicates that the presence of periphrastic future tense, and its association with long-term orientation has a significant positive impact on educational attainment, whereas the presence of sex-based grammatical gender, and its association with gender bias, has a significant adverse impact on female educational attainment.
    Keywords: D91 ; I25 ; J16 ; J24 ; Z10 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; human capital ; long-term orientation ; gender bias ; periphrastic future tense ; sex-based grammatical gender ; culture ; language
    Language: English
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  • 32
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Paid parental leave schemes have been shown to increase women's employment rates but decrease their wages in case of extended leave durations. In view of these potential trade-offs, many countries are discussing the optimal design of parental leave policies. We analyze the impact of a major parental leave reform on mothers' long-term earnings. The 2007 German parental leave reform replaced a means-tested benefit with a more generous earnings-related benefit that is granted for a shorter period of time. Additionally, a "daddy quota" of two months was introduced. To identify the causal effect of this policy on long-run earnings of mothers, we use a difference-in-difference approach that compares labor market outcomes of mothers who gave birth just before and right after the reform and nets out seasonal effects by including the year before. Using administrative social security data, we confirm previous findings and show that the average duration of employment interruptions increased for high-income mothers. Nevertheless, we find a positive long-run effect on earnings for mothers in this group. This effect cannot be explained by changes in working hours, observed characteristics, changes in employer stability or fertility patterns. Descriptive evidence suggests that the stronger involvement of fathers, incentivized by the "daddy months", could have facilitated mothers' re-entry into the labor market and thereby increased earnings. For mothers with low prior-to-birth earnings, however, we do not find any beneficial labor market effects of this parental leave reform.
    Keywords: H31 ; J13 ; J22 ; J24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; parental leave ; wages ; labor supply
    Language: English
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  • 33
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: The growing gender gap in educational attainment between men and women has raised concerns that the skill development of boys may be more sensitive to family disadvantage than that of girls. Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data we find, as do previous studies, that boys are more likely to experience increased problems in school relative to girls, including suspensions and reduced educational aspirations, when they are in poor quality schools, less-educated neighborhoods, and father-absent households. Following these cohorts into young adulthood, however, we find no evidence that adolescent disadvantage has stronger negative impacts on long-run economic outcomes such as college graduation, employment, or income for men, relative to women. We do find that father absence is more strongly associated with men's marriage and childbearing and weak support for greater male vulnerability to disadvantage in rates of high school graduation. An investigation of adult outcomes for another recent cohort from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 produces a similar pattern of results. We conclude that focusing on gender differences in behavior in school may not lead to valid inferences about the effects of disadvantage on adult skills.
    Keywords: J24 ; J12 ; J16 ; ddc:330 ; gender ; education ; employment ; earnings ; family structure ; father absence ; school quality ; neighborhood effect
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This paper investigates the presence of explicit labour-saving heuristics within robotic patents. It analyses innovative actors engaged in robotic technology and their economic environment (identity, location, industry), and identifies the technological fields particularly exposed to labour-saving innovations. It exploits advanced natural language processing and probabilistic topic modelling techniques on the universe of patent applications at the USPTO between 2009 and 2018, matched with ORBIS (Bureau van Dijk) firm-level dataset. The results show that labour-saving patent holders comprise not only robots producers, but also adopters. Consequently, labour-saving robotic patents appear along the entire supply chain. The paper shows that labour-saving innovations challenge manual activities (e.g. in the logistics sector), activities entailing social intelligence (e.g. in the healthcare sector) and cognitive skills (e.g. learning and predicting).
    Keywords: O33 ; J24 ; C38 ; ddc:330 ; robotic patents ; labour-saving technology ; search heuristics ; probabilistic topic models
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Rising inequality in the United States has raised concerns about potentially widening gaps in educational achievement by socio-economic status (SES). Using assessments from LTT-NAEP, Main-NAEP, TIMSS, and PISA that are psychometrically linked over time, we trace trends in achievement for U.S. student cohorts born between 1954 and 2001. Achievement gaps between the top and bottom quartiles of the SES distribution have been large and remarkably constant for a near half century. These unwavering gaps have not been offset by improved achievement levels, which have risen at age 14 but have remained unchanged at age 17 for the past quarter century.
    Keywords: H4 ; I24 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; student achievement ; inequality ; socio-economic status ; United States ; NAEP ; TIMSS ; PISA
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This report looks at employer–provided training in Europe. We start with a brief outline of the economic theory of training. We then look at the recent facts, by combining data from two employer surveys, the European Investment Bank's Investment Survey (EIBIS) and Eurostat's Continuous Vocational Training Survey (CVTS). We review the recent empirical literature on the relationship between economic institutions and training and between training and productivity and consider whether financing constraints hamper the training provision by firms. The paper concludes by discussing policy implications.
    Keywords: J24 ; ddc:330 ; employer provided training ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 37
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    Waterloo: University of Waterloo, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-26
    Description: We consider the job progression of immigrant women in five European countries: France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. We complement data from the European Labour Force Survey (2005-2015), with information about the skills contained in the jobs held by women, using data from the O*Net. In particular, we focus on analytical and strength skills in immigrant's jobs and compare them to those required by jobs held by similar native women. Even though immigrants experience upon arrival a gap in participation relative to the native born, they gradually increase participation during the first ten years spent in the country (approximately, 1% per year in Spain, Italy and the UK, and 2% and 4 % per year in France and Sweden respectively). Our results reveal significant differences across countries of origin as well as differences within countries over the period of analysis. Recent immigrant women show relatively large gaps in the analytical skill content of the jobs they held relative to native-born women across our host countries. Further, with the exception of immigrants to Spain, they also work jobs with higher requirements of strength than their native-born counterparts do. Although educated immigrants show a different pattern in most countries (included Spain). We find differences within countries over the period of analysis that may be consistent with the variation of incentives to move depending on the business cycle at arrival - particularly given the meager opportunities in many destination countries during aftermath of the recent great recession.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Migranten ; Weibliche Arbeitskräfte ; Qualifikation ; Erwerbsverlauf ; Vergleich ; Bevölkerung ; EU-Staaten ; Frankreich ; Italien ; Spanien
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    Essen: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-08
    Description: Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education is a critical part of a modern education system. Motivating students to learn STEM subjects is however a challenge. Teachers have a critical role in motivating students but to do this effectively they need to have appropriate subject matter knowledge. Data from PISA 2015 show a substantial proportion of teachers in Australian schools are teaching STEM subjects ‘out-of-field’, which is that they do not have the qualifications to teach these subjects. This paper examines the effects of individual teacher characteristics and school context on of out-of-field teaching in STEM subjects. In particular, it examines the role of school autonomy and staff shortage in this. The results show these two variables have a strong association with out-of-field teaching, however, other factors either mediate or confound their effects. A full understanding of the results requires knowing the role of school funding and school budgets in out-of-field teaching. While we do not have direct measures of these in the data, we can infer their likely roles through the effects of other factors, such as school sector and education level of parents of students in the school, in the model.
    Keywords: C25 ; I22 ; I24 ; J23 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; out-of-field teaching ; teacher supply and demand ; multi-level logit model
    Language: English
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  • 39
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    Waterloo: University of Waterloo, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-10
    Description: We find robust evidence that cohorts of graduates who enter college during worse economic times earn higher average wages than those who enter during better times. This difference is not explained by differences in economic conditions at the time of college graduation, changes in field of study composition, or changes in selection into occupations or industries. Cohorts who start college in bad times are not more positively selected based on their high-school outcomes, but they graduate with higher college grades, and earn higher wages conditional on their grades. Our results suggest that these cohorts exert more effort during their studies.
    Keywords: I23 ; J24 ; J31 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; Business Cycle ; Higher Education ; Cohort Effects
    Language: English
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  • 40
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    Bonn: Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-10
    Description: Earmarking financial contributions for specific geographic, thematic or other priorities has emerged as an important modality for funding multilateral development organisations. Earmarking has had positive consequences, such as the mobilisation of resources for multilateral organisations and new partnership modalities, including with non-state actors. Yet, there has been a rising concern about challenges relating to the effectiveness, efficiency and legitimacy of multilateral development cooperation. Understanding and addressing these negative aspects has gained a new urgency. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the crisis of multilateralism make it imperative to tackle the downsides of earmarked funding and bring out its positive forces. This study was commissioned by the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Germany is a latecomer to earmarking - the government has begun only in recent years to make use of earmarked funds at a larger scale. The study analyses the most important instruments of earmarked funding, studies practices of selected donors that supply large shares of earmarked funding, and analyses practices and consequences of earmarked funding with regard to the UN Development System and multilateral development banks. The study concludes with recommendations to the German government on how to improve its earmarking practices.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Entwicklungsfinanzierung ; Entwicklungsorganisation ; Deutschland ; Großbritannien ; Schweden ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Göttingen: Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Research Training Group (RTG) 1666 - GlobalFood
    Publication Date: 2020-04-21
    Description: Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) is widely promoted to enhance soil fertility, yields and livelihoods among smallholders, and ultimately combat environmental degradation. Its core is the combined use of organic and inorganic fertilizers with improved crop varieties. Yet, farmers face adoption barriers, such as additional monetary and labor investments. To date, much of the evidence on ISFM effects comes from experimental field trials instead of micro-level farmer data. In particular, studies on labor outcomes are scarce, but important to assess the viability of ISFM in smallholder settings. This study addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of ISFM effects on land productivity, net crop value, labor demand, labor productivity and returns to unpaid labor using survey data from over 6,000 teff, maize and wheat plots and 2,000 households in Ethiopia. We employ a multinomial endogenous switching model to account for endogeneity from observed and unobserved heterogeneity. We find that both partial and complete ISFM adoption lead to significant increases in land productivity and net crop value, in particular when improved seeds are used. In moister regions, complementing improved varieties with inorganic fertilizer seems most important, while in drier regions, enhancing it with organic fertilizer appears crucial. ISFM is related to higher labor demand, but also significantly increases labor productivity and financial returns to labor. These findings imply that ISFM can contribute to improve farmers' livelihoods by breaking the nexus between low productivity, environmental degradation and poverty.
    Keywords: J23 ; J24 ; O13 ; O33 ; Q16 ; ddc:330 ; Technology adoption ; land productivity ; labor productivity ; crop value ; agroecological heterogeneity ; multinomial endogenous switching
    Language: English
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  • 42
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    Luxembourg: European Investment Bank (EIB)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-23
    Description: Using a representative sample of European firms, this paper studies whether and to what extent financing constraints affect employers' decisions to invest in employee training. It combines survey data on investment activities with administrative data on financial statements to develop an index of financing constraints. It estimates that a 10 percent increase in this index reduces investment in training as a share of fixed assets by 2.9 to 4.5 percent and investment in training per employee by 1.8 to 2.5 percent. The paper documents that lower investment in training reduces productivity, and show that firms facing tighter financing constraints cut back the investment in training and tangible assets less than investment in R&D and software and data.
    Keywords: J24 ; ddc:330 ; training ; financing constraints ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 43
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    München: ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2020-04-29
    Description: Die Baunachfrage in Europa hat sich in den vergangenen Jahren ausgesprochen positiv entwickelt. Zwischen 2014 und 2019 wuchs die Bauleistung in den 19 Ländern des EUROCONSTRUCT-Netzwerks um insgesamt 15%. Daran hatten die Neubaumaßnahmen einen erheblichen Anteil. Mittelfristig dürften sie allerdings kaum noch expandieren, da sich die Rahmenbedingungen insgesamt etwas weniger günstig darstellen und sich das in etlichen Ländern bereits seit einiger Zeit sehr lebhafte Baugeschehen gerade wieder normalisiert.
    Keywords: L74 ; E30 ; ddc:330 ; Bauwirtschaft ; Konjunktur ; Branchenentwicklung ; EU-Staaten ; EUROCONSTRUCT
    Language: English
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  • 44
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    München: ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2020-04-29
    Description: Die Jobcenter in Deutschland werden entweder als "gemeinsame Einrichtungen" von Kommunen und der lokalen Agentur für Arbeit oder in "Optionskommunen" allein von den Kommunen geführt. Die Umwandlung von 41 gemeinsamen Einrichtungen in Optionskommunen im Jahr 2012 erlaubt es, den Erfolg der Vermittlungsarbeit der beiden Trägerformen zu evaluieren. Die Analyse zeigt, dass Optionskommunen gegenüber gemeinsamen Einrichtungen 10% weniger Arbeitslose in den ersten Arbeitsmarkt vermitteln. Hingegen weisen sie mehr Personen "Ein-Euro-Jobs" zu, die jedoch wenig geeignet sind, die Übergangschancen in den ersten Arbeitsmarkt zu erhöhen.
    Keywords: J21 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; Arbeitsmarkt ; Qualifikation ; Arbeitsvermittlung ; Vermittlungstätigkeit ; Deutschland
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    München: ifo Institut – Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung an der Universität München
    Publication Date: 2020-04-29
    Description: Am 3. November 2020 entscheidet sich, ob Donald Trump ein zweites Mal zum US-Präsidenten gewählt wird. Er hat seinen Wahlkampfslogan »Make America Great Again« rigoros verfolgt. Im Zuge dessen wurden diplomatische Konventionen gebrochen und jahrzehntealte internationale Verträge für nichtig erklärt. Auch in der Handelspolitik gilt ein neues Paradigma: Trump hat Sonderzölle angedroht und eingeführt, vor allem auf Importe aus China und der EU, um das amerikanische Leistungsbilanzdefizit abzubauen. Seine Steuerreform 2017 brachte inländischen Unternehmen massive Entlastungen. Welche langfristigen Spuren haben drei Jahre »America-first«-Politik in der Welt hinterlassen. Wie hat sich die US-Steuerreform auf den internationalen Steuerwettbewerb ausgewirkt? Welche Folgen hat der Handelsstreit? Was bedeutet Trumps Politik für den Zusammenhalt des westlichen Bündnisses? Und werden die USA zum Unsicherheitsfaktor für die weltweite wirtschaftliche und geopolitische Entwicklung? Henning Vöpel, HWWI und HSBA Hamburg School of Business Administration, unterstreicht, dass es bei der Auseinandersetzung zwischen den USA und China nicht nur um Handelskonflikte gehe, sondern vielmehr um die nächste geopolitische Ordnung für das 21. Jahrhundert. Harms Bandholz, Fachhochschule Kiel, geht davon aus, dass die Wirkung der Stimulusprogramme der US-Regierung bereits wieder verpufft sei, da die USA ein deutlich reduziertes Potenzialwachstum aufweisen wie im Durchschnitt der 1980er und 1990er Jahre. Gabriel Felbermayr, Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel, rechnet damit, dass auch der neue Deal zwischen China und den USA die negative Dynamik bei den bilateralen Handelsströmen nicht zu Stillstand bringen werde. Auch 2002 sei von Handelsumlenkungseffekte zugunsten von Drittstaaten – der EU, Mexiko, Taiwan – auszugehen, die die amerikanischen Importe aus diesen Ländern auf neue Höhen treiben werden. Die Zeiten der handelspolitischen Unsicherheit seien noch lange nicht vorbei. Christoph Spengel, Universität Mannheim, sieht in der US-Steuerreform 2017 "die vielleicht größte Steuersenkung aller Zeiten für Unternehmen". Konsequenz der Steuersatzsenkung in den USA sei eine Verschärfung des Steuerwettbewerbs um die Ansiedelung von Direktinvestitionen. Jost Heckemeyer, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, sieht Europa durch die Steuerpolitik Trumps unter Druck geraten. Die mittelfristige Wirkung von Trumps Steuerreform auf die Investitionstätigkeit innerhalb und außerhalb der Vereinigten Staaten werde sich zeigen. Aber der internationale Steuerwettbewerb werde weiter verschärft. Martin Mosler und Niklas Potrafke, ifo Institut, zeigen anhand ihrer neuen Studie, wie sich das Abstimmungsverhalten westlicher Industrieländer in der Generalversammlung der Vereinten Nationen unter US-Präsident Donald Trump entwickelt hat Die Übereinstimmungsrate zwischen den Vereinigten Staaten und dem Westen war unter Donald Trump ca. 7 Prozentpunkte geringer als unter früheren US-Präsidenten. Henrik Müller, Technische Universität Dortmund, stellt angesichts der herausragenden Bedeutung der USA für die Weltwirtschaft und die Weltpolitik fest, dass sich die von Washington ausgehende Unberechenbarkeit in einem messbar erhöhten Unsicherheitsniveau auch in Deutschland niederschlägt.
    Keywords: F13 ; F50 ; F51 ; O11 ; ddc:330 ; Außenhandel ; Handelskonflikt ; Handelspolitik ; Wirtschaftliche Entwicklung ; Steuerwettbewerb ; USA ; EU-Staaten ; China
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  • 46
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Using a representative sample of European firms, we study whether and to what extent financing constraints affect employers' decision to invest in employee training. We combine survey data on investment activities with administrative data on financial statements to develop an index of financing constraints. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in this index reduces investment in training as a share of fixed assets by 2.9 to 4.5 percent and investment in training per employee by 1.8 to 2.5 percent. We document that lower investment in training reduces productivity, and show that firms facing tighter financing constraints cut back the investment in training and tangible assets less than the investment in R&D and software and data.
    Keywords: J24 ; ddc:330 ; training ; financing constraints ; Europe
    Language: English
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  • 47
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We examine changes in inequality in socio-emotional skills very early in life in two British cohorts born 30 years apart. We construct comparable scales using two validated instruments for the measurement of child behaviour and identify two dimensions of socio-emotional skills: 'internalising' and 'eternalising'. Using recent methodological advances in factor analysis, we establish comparability in the inequality of these early skills across cohorts, but not in their average level. We document for the first time that inequality in socio-emotional skills has increased across cohorts, especially for boys and at the bottom of the distribution. We also formally decompose the sources of the increase in inequality and find that compositional changes explain half of the rise in inequality in externalising skills. On the other hand, the increase in inequality in internalising skills seems entirely driven by changes in returns to background characteristics. Lastly, we document that socio-emotional skills measured at an earlier age than in most of the existing literature are significant predictors of health and health behaviours. Our results show the importance of formally testing comparability of measurements to study skills dierences across groups, and in general point to the role of inequalities in the early years for the accumulation of health and human capital across the life course.
    Keywords: J13 ; J24 ; I14 ; I24 ; C38 ; ddc:330 ; inequality ; socio-emotional skills ; cohort studies ; measurement invariance
    Language: English
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  • 48
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Does removing the constraints of time and place of work increase the utility of workers and firms? We design a randomized experiment on a sample of workers in a large Italian company: workers are randomly divided into a treated group that engages in flexible space and time job (which we call "smart-working") one day per week for 9 months and a control group that continues to work traditionally. By comparing the treated and control workers, we find causal evidence that the flexibility of smart-working increases the productivity of workers and improves their well-being and work-life balance. We also observe that the effects are stronger for women and that there are no significant spillover effects within workers of a team.
    Keywords: J16 ; J22 ; J24 ; L20 ; M54 ; ddc:330 ; randomized control trial ; productivity ; work-life balance ; well-being
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Due to the COVID-19 crisis and the related "social distancing" measures, working from home (WfH) has suddenly become a crucial lever of economic activity. This paper combines survey and administrative data to compute measures for the feasibility of working from home among German employees. Breaking down the data by occupation, region, industry, and employee characteristics, we document considerable variation in the potential to WfH across all dimensions. We find that WfH is feasible for roughly 56 percent of the overall German workforce, while less than half of this potential was exploited in the pre-pandemic economy.
    Keywords: D24 ; J22 ; J24 ; O33 ; R12 ; ddc:330 ; COVID-19 ; working from home ; Germany
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 50
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: This paper provides a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the employment performance of first- and second-generation immigrants in Belgium compared to that of natives. Using detailed quarterly data for the period 2008-2014, we find not only that first-generation immigrants face a substantial employment penalty (up to -36% points) vis-à-vis their native counterparts, but also that their descendants continue to face serious difficulties in accessing the labour market. The social elevator appears to be broken for descendants of two non-EU-born immigrants. Immigrant women are also found to be particularly affected. Among the key drivers of access to employment, we find: i) education for the descendants of non-EU-born immigrants, and ii) proficiency in the host country language, citizenship acquisition, and (to a lesser extent) duration of residence for first-generation immigrants. Finally, estimates suggest that around a decade is needed for the employment gap between refugees and other foreign-born workers to be (largely) suppressed.
    Keywords: J15 ; J16 ; J21 ; J24 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; first- and second-generation immigrants ; employment ; moderating factors
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 51
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: This study estimates teacher value-added (TVA) for language arts and mathematics test scores of students in public primary schools to investigate the empirical relationship between testscore TVA and observable traits and promotions of teachers. Our empirical strategy employs Chetty, Friedman, and Rockoff (2014a) with school-year fixed effects as an additional control for potential sorting of students across schools. Using unique administrative panel data of students in public primary schools of a large municipality of Japan, we find TVA distribution to have variance comparable to ones observed in the U.S. schools. Using TVA estimates, we examine their associations with gender, teaching experience, age, and promotions of teachers. We find that these observable characteristics of teachers are statistically significantly associated with TVA estimates. Additionally, we find that TVA estimates are positively associated with teacher promotions.
    Keywords: H75 ; I21 ; J24 ; J45 ; ddc:330 ; education ; teacher value-added ; class size ; teaching experience ; promotion
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 52
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enroll in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer ADHD symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher grades, but they do not score higher on standardized tests. The long-term effects on educational attainment thus appear to be driven by changes in socio-emotional skills rather than cognitive skills.
    Keywords: C93 ; I21 ; I24 ; I26 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; socio-emotional skills ; randomized intervention ; child development ; school tracking
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 53
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We go beyond estimating the effect of college attainment on longevity by uncovering the mechanisms behind this effect while controlling for latent skills and unobserved heterogeneity. We decompose the effect with respect to a large set of potential mechanisms, including health behaviors, lifestyles, earnings, work conditions, and health at the start of the risk period (1993â€"2017). Our estimates are based on theWisconsin Longitudinal Study and show that the effect of education on longevity is well explained by observed mechanisms. Furthermore, we find that for women, the positive effect of education on longevity has been historically masked by the negative effect of education on marriage. An adjustment for the relationship between education and marriage based on data for more recent cohorts increases the explained effect of education on longevity for women. We discuss the implications for policies aimed at improving health and longevity and reducing health inequality.
    Keywords: C41 ; I12 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; health behaviors ; mechanisms ; longevity ; college education ; lifestyles
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 54
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Due to the COVID-19 crisis and the related "social distancing" measures, working from home (WfH) has suddenly become a crucial lever of economic activity. This paper combines survey and administrative data to compute measures for the feasibility of working from home among German employees. Breaking down the data by occupation, region, industry, and employee characteristics, we document considerable variation in the potential to WfH across all dimensions. We find that WfH is feasible for roughly 56 percent of the overall German workforce, while less than half of this potential was exploited in the pre-pandemic economy.
    Keywords: D24 ; J22 ; J24 ; O33 ; R12 ; ddc:330 ; Germany ; working from home ; COVID-19
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 55
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enroll in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer ADHD symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher grades, but they do not score higher on standardized tests. The long-term effects on educational attainment thus appear to be driven by changes in socio-emotional skills rather than cognitive skills.
    Keywords: C93 ; I21 ; I24 ; I26 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; socio-emotional skills ; randomized intervention ; child development ; school tracking
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 56
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the mechanisms underlying hiring discrimination against transgender men. Design/methodology/approach - The authors conduct a scenario experiment with final-year business students in which fictitious hiring decisions are made about transgender or cisgender male job candidates. More importantly, these candidates are scored on statements related to theoretical reasons for hiring discrimination given in the literature. The resulting data are analysed using a bivariate analysis. Additionally, a multiple mediation model is run. Findings - Suggestive evidence is found for co-worker and customer taste-based discrimination, but not for employer taste-based discrimination. In addition, results show that transgender men are perceived as being in worse health, being more autonomous and assertive, and have a lower probability to go on parental leave, compared with cisgender men, revealing evidence for (positive and negative) statistical discrimination. Social implications - Targeted policy measures are needed given the substantial labour market discrimination against transgender individuals measured in former studies. However, to combat this discrimination effectively, one needs to understand its underlying mechanisms. This study provides the first comprehensive exploration of these mechanisms. Originality/value - This study innovates in being one of the first to explore the relative empirical importance of dominant (theoretical) explanations for hiring discrimination against transgender men. Thereby, the authors take the logical next step in the literature on labour market discrimination against transgender individuals.
    Keywords: J15 ; J71 ; J16 ; J24 ; J23 ; ddc:330 ; signalling ; theories of discrimination ; fictitious hiring decisions ; transgender men ; scenario experiment ; risk aversion
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 57
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: This paper asks to what extent host language proficiency can insure immigrants against the risk of ending up in mismatched jobs. Using the 2003-2016 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), the paper discriminates between three forms of mismatch, overqualification, under-qualification and over-skilling. Host language proficiency is instrumented using Bleakley and Chin (Rev Econ Stat 86:481–496, 2004) strategy, which exploits the fact that younger children learn languages more easily than older ones. To differentiate between local average treatment effects (LATE) and average treatment effects (ATE), the paper considers two alternative models, 2SLS instrumental variables and biprobit. We find that treatment effects are heterogeneous. English language proficiency among immigrants in Australia reduces the probability of ending up in over-qualified jobs, by between 17.2 (LATE) and 36.7 (ATE) percentage points. The ATE of overs-skilling is also significant and about -8.9 percentage points. In contrast, language skills tend to raise the probability of being under-qualified at the job, by about 8.6 percentage points according to the ATE. Local effects of over-skilling and underqualification fail to be statistically significant, suggesting that host language proficiency may be innocuous for some workers. Overall, the results indicate that host language proficiency is a country-specific, valuable form of human capital.
    Keywords: F22 ; J24 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; over-qualification ; under-qualification ; over-skilling ; host language proficiency ; instrumental variables
    Language: English
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  • 58
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Employment helps reduce the risk of poverty. Through a randomized controlled trial, we evaluate the impact of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program to low-income families with dependent children on household members' labor supply. Recipients are required to attend labor-market-oriented mentoring courses as a condition of the transfer. One year after admission to the program, fathers assigned to the CCT program are more likely to work (+14 percent) than fathers assigned to an unconditional cash transfer program or to a pure control group. No effect arises for mothers. Results seem to be explained by improved family networks and increased parental investments in activities that enhance labor market opportunities.
    Keywords: I10 ; I20 ; J24 ; I31 ; ddc:330 ; conditional cash transfers ; poverty ; household labor supply ; mentoring courses
    Language: English
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  • 59
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: The Arab population in Israel constitutes an ethnic minority, at around 20% of the population. The economy of this minority is characterized by inferior outcomes relative to the Jewish majority by all indicators, including employment, wages, occupational status, social welfare, education, and housing. This paper reviews key data facts and presents a model of barriers to integration facing Arabs in Israel, taking it to the data. The empirical analysis, based on a general equilibrium model of occupational choice with optimizing agents and barriers, points to an increase over time in barriers to the acquisition of human capital in highly skilled occupations, and, concurrently, a reduction in labor market barriers in all occupations. The analysis offers insights relevant to other developed economies with large ethnic minorities.
    Keywords: J15 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; ethnic minority ; economic outcomes ; human capital barriers ; labor market barriers ; occupational choice
    Language: English
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  • 60
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    Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: The phenomenon of workers moving from a poor to a rich economy is high on the political agenda. When a worker moves to a richer economy, what is gained by the move? The empirical challenge in giving an answer stems from the difficulty to disentangle income differences from many other determinants. Estimates are potentially biased due to substantial misspecification of the model, when omitting relevant determinants. The paper makes use of a unique data set on Palestinian workers, working locally and in Israel, that allows to isolate the pure effects of income differences with no other relevant factors. It explicitly addresses the question of what workers newly experience in the richer economy (higher productivity), what is taken from the poorer economy (human capital), and their choices in moving (self-selection). Importantly, it encompasses the constraints placed on workers in terms of the human capital skills demanded. The findings show that income differences affecting worker choice are made up of contradictory elements. Consistently with findings in the development accounting literature, productivity differences in favor of the richer economy, due to differences in TFP and in physical capital, are sizeable and operate to raise wages for movers. But lower job task values operate to lower wages for movers, who are offered manual tasks in the rich economy. The latter loss offsets the former gain. The paper emphasizes the idea that tasks are tied to locations. Workers choose a location-wage-task 'pack,' with movers getting low rewards to the skills bundled in their job tasks.
    Keywords: E24 ; J24 ;