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  • 1
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    Leiden: Brill | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: The Gnassingbé clan has ruled the country since 1967. The demand for political alternance, initiated by institutional and electoral reforms, constituted the major contentious issue between the government and the challengers of the Gnassingbé regime throughout the survey period. An alliance of opposition parties and civil society groups organized peaceful demonstrations in opposition to the regime, which were often violently suppressed. Civil society organizations and representatives of the Christian church supported the demands of the opposition. The legislative elections of 20 December 2018, boycotted by the major opposition parties, resulted in an easy victory of the ruling party. The local elections, crucial for democratization at the grass-roots, but postponed time and again since 1987, were again postponed in December 2018 sine die. The human rights record of the government has improved but remains poor. Despite undeniable improvements to the framework and appearance of the regime's key institutions during the review period, democracy remains far from complete. However, the international community, notably Togo’s African peers, the AU and ECOWAS, followed a ‘laissez-faire’ approach in the interests of regional stability and their national interests in dealing with Togo. Economic growth remained stable at about 5% per annum. Public investment in infrastructure (e.g. roads, harbour) and increases in agricultural productivity, notably of export crops, had been the key drivers of economic growth. However, growth remains vulnerable to external shocks and the climate and has not been inclusive. Positive growth was overshadowed by increasing inter-personal and regional inequality as well as an increase in extreme poverty. Moreover, money-laundering, illegal money transfers and trafficking grew alarmingly. The business climate improved considerably nevertheless.
    Description: Author’s extended and up-dated version of ‘BTI 2020 – Togo Country Report’ (forthcoming)
    Description: RÉSUMÉ: Le clan Gnassingbé dirige le pays depuis 1967. La demande d'alternance politique, initiée par des réformes institutionnelles et électorales, a constitué le principal différend entre le gouvernement et les rivaux du régime de Gnassingbé tout au long de la période d'enquête. Une alliance de partis d'opposition et de groupes de la société civile a organisé des manifestations pacifiques contre le régime, qui ont souvent été réprimées avec violence. Les organisations de la société civile et les représentants de l'église chrétienne ont soutenu les revendications de l'opposition. Les élections législatives du 20 décembre 2018, boycottées par les principaux partis de l'opposition, ont permis une victoire facile du parti au pouvoir. Les élections locales, cruciales pour la démocratisation à la base, mais reportées à plusieurs reprises depuis 1987, ont été à nouveau reportées en décembre 2018 sine die. Le bilan du gouvernement en matière de droits de l'homme s'est amélioré mais reste médiocre. Malgré des améliorations indéniables du cadre et de l’apparence des principales institutions du régime au cours de la période considérée, la démocratie est loin d’être achevée. Cependant, la communauté internationale, notamment ses homologues africains du Togo, l’UA et la CEDEAO, a adopté une approche de «laisser-faire» dans l’intérêt de la stabilité régionale et de leurs intérêts nationaux face au Togo. La croissance économique est restée stable à environ 5% par an. Les investissements publics dans les infrastructures (par exemple, les routes et les ports) et l’augmentation de la productivité agricole, notamment des cultures d’exportation, ont été les principaux moteurs de la croissance économique. Cependant, la croissance reste vulnérable aux chocs extérieurs et au climat et n’a pas été inclusive. La croissance positive a été éclipsée par l'augmentation des inégalités interpersonnelles et régionales ainsi que par l'augmentation de l'extrême pauvreté. En outre, le blanchiment d’argent, les transferts d’argent illégal et le trafic se sont multipliés de manière alarmante. Le climat des affaires s’est néanmoins considérablement amélioré. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Der Gnassingbé-Clan hat das Land seit 1967 regiert. Die Forderungen nach institutionellen und Wahlrechtreformen sowie nach politischem Wandel bildeten während des Erhebungszeitraums das umstrittenste Thema zwischen der Regierung und den Herausforderern des Gnassingbé-Regimes. Ein Bündnis von Oppositionsparteien und zivilgesellschaftlichen Gruppen organisierte friedliche Demonstrationen gegen das Regime, die oft gewaltsam unterdrückt wurden. Zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen und Vertreter der christlichen Kirche unterstützten die Forderungen der Opposition. Die Parlamentswahlen vom 20. Dezember 2018, die von den großen Oppositionsparteien boykottiert wurden, führten zu einem leichten Sieg der Regierungspartei. Die für die Demokratisierung an der Basis entscheidenden Kommunalwahlen, die seit 1987 immer wieder verschoben wurden, wurden im Dezember 2018 erneut auf unbestimmte Zeit verschoben. Die Menschenrechtsbilanz der Regierung hat sich verbessert, ist aber nach wie vor schlecht. Trotz unbestreitbarer Verbesserungen der Rahmenbedingungen und des Erscheinungsbildes der wichtigsten Institutionen des Regimes im Überprüfungszeitraum ist die Demokratisierung bei weitem nicht vollständig. Die internationale Gemeinschaft, insbesondere die afrikanischen peers des togosichen Präsidenten, die AU und die ECOWAS, verfolgten jedoch einen "Laissez-faire" -Ansatz im Interesse der regionalen Stabilität und ihrer nationalen Interessen im Umgang mit Togo. Das Wirtschaftswachstum blieb stabil bei etwa 5% pro Jahr. Öffentliche Investitionen in die Infrastruktur (z. B. Straßen, Häfen) und die Steigerung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktivität, insbesondere von Exportkulturen, waren die Hauptfaktoren des Wirtschaftswachstums. Das Wachstum bleibt jedoch anfällig für externe Schocks und das Wachstum war nicht inklusiv. Das positive Wachstum wurde durch die zunehmende Ungleichheit zwischen Personen und Regionen sowie durch die Zunahme extremer Armut überschattet. Darüber hinaus nahmen Geldwäsche, illegale Geldüberweisungen und Menschenhandel alarmierend zu. Das Geschäftsklima hat sich dennoch deutlich verbessert.
    Keywords: A14 ; F35 ; N97 ; O17 ; O55 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; Togo ; West Africa ; ECOWAS ; WAEMU ; Democratization ; Good Governance
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Bamberg: Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group (BERG)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2017) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I explore these experimental results by investigating a model in which financial traders individually learn how to use forecasting and/or trading anchor-and-adjustment heuristics by updating them with Genetic Algorithms. The model replicates the main outcomes of these two threads of the experimental finance literature. It shows that both forecasters and traders coordinate on chasing asset price trends, which in turn causes substantial and self-fulfilling price oscillations, albeit larger and faster in the case of trading markets. When agents have to learn both tasks, financial instability becomes more persistent.
    Keywords: C53 ; C63 ; C91 ; D03 ; D83 ; D84 ; ddc:330 ; Financial Instability ; Learning-to-Forecast and Learning-to-Optimize Experiments ; Genetic Algorithm Model of Individual Learning
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: Will low-skilled workers be replaced by automation? To answer this question, we set up a search and matching model that features two skill types of workers and includes automation capital as an additional production factor. Automation capital is a perfect substitute for low-skilled workers and an imperfect substitute for high-skilled workers. Using this type of model, we show that the accumulation of automation capital decreases the labor market tightness in the low-skilled labor market and increases the labor market tightness in the high-skilled labor market. This leads to a rising unemployment rate and falling wages of low-skilled workers and a falling unemployment rate and rising wages of high-skilled workers. In a cali- bration to German data, we show that one additional industrial robot causes a loss of 1.66 low-skilled manufacturing jobs, whereas the additional robot creates 3.42 high-skilled manufacturing jobs. Thus, overall employment even rises with automation.
    Keywords: C78 ; J63 ; J64 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; unemployment ; automation ; job search ; technological progress ; inequality ; skill premium
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: Arab society in Israel offers a counter-example, which calls into question the hypothesis that the male advantage in STEM decreases as gender equality in society increases. Analyzing administrative longitudinal data on students in Hebrew- and Arabic-language schools in Israel, all operating within the same centralized education system, we find that the gender achievement-gap favoring girls in Arabic schools, the ethnic group characterized by less gender equality, is greater than the gender gap favoring girls in Hebrew schools. Moreover, maledominated STEM matriculation electives in Hebrew schools are female-dominated in Arabic schools, controlling for prior achievement in mathematics. We show that these patterns are not dependent on socioeconomic or school characteristics but rather reflect ethnic differences in the gendered effect of prior achievement on subject choice. While in Hebrew-language schools the gender gaps favoring men in physics, computer science and advanced mathematics electives increase in early mathematical achievement, in Arabic-language schools gender gaps favoring men are non-existent and even reversed among top achieving students.
    Keywords: I21 ; J15 ; J16 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; culture ; gender gap in mathematics ; STEM ; Arab society ; educational choice
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Die professionalisierte, kontinuierliche Vermietung von Wohnraum über Homesharing-Plattformen wie Airbnb kann dem Markt Wohnraum entziehen und lokal existierende Wohnraum-knappheit verschärfen. Regelungen zur Steuerung der Vermietungstätigkeit wie Zweckentfremdungsverbote sollen dem entgegenwirken. In Nordrhein-Westfalen lässt sich jedoch kein empirischer Beleg für umfangreichen Wohnraumentzug durch Airbnb feststellen.
    Description: A professional, continuous short-term letting of accommodation via home sharing platforms like Airbnb can lead to a reduction of housing space and therefore intensify housing shortages. Regulation like the ban of an exclusive use of apartments or houses for short-term accommodation (so-called ban on misuse or Zweckentfremdungsverbot) are supposed to prevent or to mitigate such developments. In the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia however, no empirical evidence for such reductions of housing space due to home sharing via Airbnb can be found.
    Keywords: D52 ; L14 ; L51 ; L86 ; ddc:330
    Language: German
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  • 6
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Despite the headway the world has experienced over the last couple of years in terms of a substantial increase in digital access, there are still significant challenges to overcome in ensuring women are included in the transformation to a digital society, which in turn will enhance productivity and social development. Efforts to increase internet adoption access through broadband plans and legislative reforms have yielded improvements in use and adoption. However, there is still a stark and pervasive gender inequality in terms of access, ownership of digital devices, digital fluency as well as the capacity to make meaningful use of the access to technology. Even though affordability is a key source of exclusion, there are also significant socio-cultural norms that restrict access for women. This paper brings forward the argument that access alone is not enough, women need agency and capacity to leverage access. The authors thus highlight the need to make an assessment of the global gender gap and develop meaningful indicators that contribute to the design and implementation of effective policies that drive adoption. We need effective promotion of women's digital adoption not only from the government but also from the private sector and civil society in order to lead the digital adoption of best practices for women around the world.
    Keywords: J16 ; J24 ; O30 ; ddc:330 ; digital gender gap ; digital inclusion ; digital skills
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: The introduction of a Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) in the European Union (EU) would substantially change the rules of the game in international taxation. According to the proposal by the European Commission (EC), the profits of a Multinational Enterprise (MNE) would no longer be assessed by using the arm's length principles and (hypothetical) market prices, but split based on a formulary apportionment. This implies that an allocation key consisting of sales volume, number of employees and capital invested would be applied to distribute the taxable profits of an MNE. From an economic perspective, the principle of taxing profits at source would be thereby abolished. However, due to the current difficulty for taxpayers and tax authorities to agree on adequate transfer prices, a radical change as proposed by the EC might be reasonable. Hence, the EC proposal for the CCCTB is a promising goal as it could lower the red tape burden for MNE as well as tax authorities. Furthermore, the adjustment of the debt bias and the encouragement of R&D as additional items of the EC proposal could stimulate economic growth. A main obstacle for the implementation of a CCCTB would be the expected shifts in tax revenue which make a political agreement at the EU level very difficult. The application of a CCCTB would substantially redistribute corporate profits among the EU member states as a simulation by the German Economic Institute (IW) shows. Especially, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta would receive significantly less tax revenue since sales volume, number of employees and capital invested are relatively small in these countries. France and Italy, in contrast, would be on the winning side. Germany would also benefit even though to a rather low degree. A main reason for this result is that the strongly exporting German corporations today pay a large proportion of their corporate taxes in Germany. With the application of the CCCTB, parts of the taxable profits would be allocated to foreign countries. From a systematic point of view, the CCCTB is only convincing if there is a global commitment. A simulation of the tax revenue effects for the G20 countries when applying a CCCTB shows that the shift would also be drastic. The EU member states - even the big ones - would have to accept lower taxable corporate profits. Instead, the United States could increase the corporate tax base mainly because of the high consumption level. China and India would benefit due to the large number of employees. Thus, whether a country ranks among the winners or losers in terms of tax revenue depends foremost on the peer group.
    Keywords: H25 ; H26 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    London: Routledge
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: European integration is increasingly contested in public. What are the policy consequences of this EU politicization? This article argues that politicization challenges the hitherto often technocratic mode of policy preparation in the European Commission. Increased public attention and contestation render the diffuse public a more relevant stakeholder for Europe’s central agenda-setter because future competence transfers to Brussels are more likely to be scrutinized in the public realm. This incentivizes Commission actors to generate widely dispersed regulatory benefits through its policy initiatives, particularly where an initiative covers publicly salient issues. Applying this expectation to 17 European consumer policy initiatives suggests that the Commission orients its policy proposals towards wide-spread consumer interest during periods of high EU politicization and issue salience. However, the mechanism is constrained by internal turf conflicts and anticipated Council preferences. These findings highlight that politicization entails both chances and risks for further, policy-driven integration in Europe.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; consumer policy ; European Commission ; European integration ; politicization ; responsiveness ; salience
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: A correlation curve is introduced as a tool to study the degree of intergenerational income mobility, i.e. how income status is related between parents and adult child. The method overcomes the shortcomings of the elasticity of children's income with respect to parents' income (i.e. its sensitiveness to different dispersion among the generations) and the correlation coefficient (i.e. its inability to capture nonlinearities). The method is particularly suitable for comparative studies and in this study labour earnings are compared to disposable income. The correlation between the parental income and the child's adult disposable income becomes stronger for higher percentiles in the income distribution of the parents. Above the median the correlation is found to be stronger than for labour earnings. Interestingly, the elasticity is higher for labour earnings for most part of the distribution and complementing the elasticity with correlation curves provides a much more complete picture of the intergenerational income mobility.
    Keywords: C14 ; D63 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; intergenerational mobility ; nonlinear ; nonparametric ; correlation curve
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Durham, NC: Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Commerce changes the production of wealth in a society as well as its ethics. What is appropriate in a non-commercial society is not necessarily appropriate in a commercial one. Adam Smith criticizes Stoic self-command in commercial societies, rather than embracing it, as is often suggested. He argues that Stoicism, with its promotion of indifference to passions, is an ethic appropriate for savages. Savages live in hard conditions where expressing emotions is detrimental and reprehensible. In contrast, the ease of life brought about by commerce fosters the appropriate expressions and sharing of emotions. Imposing Stoicism on a commercial society is therefore imposing an ethic for savages onto a refined society - something to abhor. Smith's rejection of Stoicism in commercial societies can thus be seen as a defense of commerce.
    Keywords: B12 ; B15 ; D91 ; F69 ; O1 ; Z1 ; ddc:330 ; Adam Smith ; Stoicism ; Commerce ; Commercial Societies ; Savages ; Expression of Emotions ; Insensitivity
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    London: Routledge
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: This study examines how a government’s majority status affects coalition governance and performance. Two steps are investigated: the inclusion of government parties’ electoral pledges into the coalition agreement, and the ability to translate pledges into legislative outputs. The main results of a comparative analysis of 183 pledges of a minority (without a formal support partner) and majority coalition in the German State North Rhine-Westphalia indicate that government parties with minority status include fewer pledges in the coalition agreement. But this does not mean that they also perform badly at pledge fulfilment. In fact, they show an equivalent performance in fulfilling election pledges, at least partially, when compared to majority government parties. However, there is tentative evidence that the prime minister’s party shows a lower quality of pledge fulfilment, as measured by a higher share of partially enacted pledges.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: The relationship between many G20 governments and organized civil society has become more complex, laden with tensions, and such that both have to find more optimal modes of engagement. In some instances, state-civil society relations have worsened, leading some experts and activists to speak of a 'shrinking space' for civil society. How wide-spread is this phenomenon? Are these more isolated occurrences or indeed part of a more general development? How can countries achieve and maintain an enabling environment for civil society? The authors suggest that much of the current impasse results foremost from outdated and increasingly ill-suited regulatory frameworks that fail to accommodate a much more diverse and expanded set of civil society organizations (CSO). In response, they propose a differentiated model for a regulatory framework based on functional roles. Based on quantitative profiling and expert surveys, moreover, the paper also derives initial recommendations on how governments and civil society could find ways to relate to each other in both national and multilateral contexts.
    Keywords: F5 ; L31 ; H7 ; K33 ; ddc:330 ; civil society ; NGOs ; closing civic space ; nonprofit regulation ; G20
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Environmental externalities call for the use of environmental taxes to get prices right and thereby reduce environmental pressures. To date, however, the Spanish government makes only limited use of environmental taxes. One major reason for the policy reluctance are concerns on the regressive impacts of environmental taxes. We argue that policy can hedge against these concerns by means of revenue recycling. More specifically, we assess the impacts of a green tax reform where additional revenues are redistributed lump-sum to Spanish households on an equal-per-capita basis. Based on quantitative evidence from coupled microsimulation and computable equilibrium analyses we find that such a green tax reform leads to a substantial reduction in harmful emissions while having a progressive impact.
    Keywords: H23 ; Q4 ; Q53 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; environmental tax reform ; household incidence ; computable general equilibrium ; microsimulation
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: The authors examine the impacts of quality of institutions, border and transport efficiency, physical and communication infrastructure on overall and intra-Africa trade covering 44 African countries and their 173 trade partners for the periods 2000-2014. Aggregate indicators are derived for the quality of economic institutions, border and transport efficiency, physical and communication infrastructure using principal component analysis. The findings disclose that intra-Africa and overall Africa's trade robustly determined by the quality of institutions, border and transport efficiency, physical and communication infrastructure. The estimates also indicate that the marginal effect of the quality of institutions, physical and communication infrastructure on trade flow appears to be increasing in GDP per capita. In contrast, the marginal effect of border and transport efficiency on trade decreases in GDP per capita. The authors compute simulation of improving each indicator to the best performer in the sample. Their findings are robust to estimation method conducted to account for potential endogeneity.
    Keywords: F1 ; F14 ; ddc:330 ; trade flow ; transport and border efficiency ; quality of institutions ; physical and communication infrastructure ; gravity model ; African countries
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We provide a shrinkage type methodology which allows for simultaneous model selection and estimation of vector error correction models (VECM) when the dimension is large and can increase with sample size. Model determination is treated as a joint selection problem of cointegrating rank and autoregressive lags under respective practically valid sparsity assumptions. We show consistency of the selection mechanism by the resulting Lasso-VECM estimator under very general assumptions on dimension, rank and error terms. Moreover, with computational complexity of a linear programming problem only, the procedure remains computationally tractable in high dimensions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by a simulation study and an empirical application to recent CDS data after the financial crisis.
    Keywords: C32 ; C52 ; ddc:330 ; High-dimensional time series ; VECM ; Cointegration rank and lag selection ; Lasso ; Credit Default Swap
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Intertemporal substitution is at the heart of modern macroeconomics and finance as well as economic policymaking, but a large fraction of a representative population of men - those below the top of the distribution by cognitive abilities (IQ) - do not change their consumption propensities with their inflation expectations. Low-IQ men are also less than half as sensitive to interest-rate changes when making borrowing decisions. Our microdata include unique administrative information on cognitive abilities, as well as economic expectations, consumption and borrowing plans, and total household debt from Finland. Heterogeneity in observables such as education, income, other expectations, and financial constraints do not drive these patterns. Costly information acquisition and the ability to form accurate forecasts are channels that cannot fully explain these results. Limited cognitive abilities could be human frictions in the transmission and effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies that operate through household consumption and borrowing decisions.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Macroeconomic Beliefs ; Limited Cognition ; Heterogeneous Agents ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Survey Data ; Household Finance
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Berlin: Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Evidence suggests that people evaluate outcomes relative to expectations. I analyze this expectation-based loss aversion (Köszegi and Rabin (2006, 2009)) in the context of dynamic and static auctions, where the reference point is given by the (endogenous) equilibrium outcome. If agents update their reference point during the auction, the arrival of information crucially affects equilibrium behavior. Consequently, I show that - even with independent private values - the Vickrey auction yields strictly higher revenue than the English auction, violating the well known revenue equivalence. Thus, dynamic loss aversion offers a novel explanation for empirically observed differences between these auction formats.
    Keywords: D03 ; D44 ; ddc:330 ; Vickrey auction ; English auction ; expectation-based loss aversion ; revenue equivalence ; dynamic loss aversion ; personal equilibrium
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Pessimism determines the experts' predictions for the first and second quarter of 2019 which can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. Although the experts still expect the yield curve to become steeper, they expect long-term interest rates to increase less compared to the last survey. The lower interest rate forecasts are consistent with the experts' lower inflation and growth expectations. The experts expect 1.7 percent inflation in the Eurozone and a growth rate of real gross domestic product of 1.6 percent for 2019, which indicates a slowdown of economic growth and a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its inflation target. Given that, the experts expect the long-term interest rate to be 0.51 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2019, which is 0.24 percentage points lower than their prediction in the last survey. For the short rate the experts expect no change, since they expect the ECB's main refinancing rate to stay at 0.0 percent in the first half of 2019. But the experts expect the yield of US Treasury bonds to increase from 2.86 percent to 3.31 percent by the end of the first half of 2019 and thereby a growing interest rate differential between the US and Europe. Given the less accommodative monetary policy by the ECB in 2019 the experts forecast of a mild appreciation of the Euro from 1.138 US-Dollar to 1.143 US-Dollar in the first quarter and to 1.162 US-Dollar in the second quarter of 2019. Although the experts revised their stock market forecasts downwards, they expect the DAX and the Stoxx index to recover in the first half of 2019. On average, the experts predict the Stoxx index to increase from 2.807 points at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018 to 2.951 points at the end of the first quarter of 2019 and to 3.072 points at the end of the second quarter of 2019. This would correspond to increases of 5.1 percent and 9.4 percent since December 2018. Moreover, the experts expect the DAX to increase from 10.788 to 11.396 in the first quarter of 2019 and to 11.919 in the second quarter of 2019, which corresponds to increases by 5.6 and 10.5 percent since end of December 2018. Interesting is that the experts expect the Stoxx and the DAX to grow faster than the S&P 500, which we surveyed for the first time. For the S&P 500 the experts only expect increases by 0.7 and 5.3 percent. In the long-term ranking, which covers the last 16 quarters, National-Bank could defend rank one, while Commerzbank and Nord/LB could defend rank two and rank three.
    Keywords: G12 ; G17 ; ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We study the impact of changes in regulations and policy interventions on systemic risk among European sovereigns measured as volatility spillovers in respective credit risk markets. Our unique intraday CDS dataset allows for precise measurement of the effectiveness of these events in a network setting. In particular, it allows discerning interventions which entail significant changes in network cross-effects with appropriate bootstrap confidence intervals. We show that it was mainly regulatory changes with the ban of trading naked sovereign CDS in 2012 as well as the new ISDA regulations in 2014 which were most effective in reducing systemic risk. In comparison, we find that the effect of policy interventions was minor and generally not sustainable. In particular, they only had a significant impact when implemented for the first time and when targeting more than one country. For the volatility spillover channels, we generally find balanced networks with no fragmentation over time.
    Keywords: G20 ; G01 ; G17 ; C32 ; C55 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; Financial Crises ; Policy and Regulation ; Financial Stability and Systemic Risk in the Eurozone ; High-Frequency CDS ; Bootstrap Spillover-Measures
    Language: English
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median IQ (high-IQ men) display 50% lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. The inflation expectations and perceptions of high-IQ men, but not others, are positively correlated over time. High-IQ men are also less likely to round and to forecast implausible values. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their propensity to consume when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. High-IQ men are also forward-looking - they are more likely to save for retirement conditional on saving. Education levels, income, socio-economic status, and employment status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of household consumption, saving, and investment.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Behavioral Macroeconomics ; Heterogeneous Beliefs ; Limited Cognition ; Expectations Formation ; Household Finance
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Das MIP-Erhebungsdesign sieht vor, abwechselnd Kurz- und Langerhebungen durchzuführen. Die Erhebung des Jahres 2018 war eine Kurzerhebung. Das bedeutet unter anderem, dass sich das Fragenspektrum vorrangig auf Fragen zu den Kernindikatoren des Innovationsverhaltens beschränkt. Die Haupterhebungsergebnisse zu diesen Kernindikatoren sind in einem Indikatorenbericht (vgl. Rammer et al., 2019) sowie in 47 Branchenberichten1 veröffentlicht. Zusätzlich zu den Fragen zu Kernindikatoren des Innovationsverhaltens wurden in die Erhebung 2018 auch zwei Schwerpunktfragen aufgenommen: - Eine Schwerpunktfrage widmete sich der Zusammenarbeit mit der Wissenschaft. Gefragt wurde, ob Unternehmen mit Wissenschaftseinrichtungen (Hochschulen, Forschungseinrichtungen) im Zeitraum 2015-2017 zusammengearbeitet haben. Für den aus Sicht des Unternehmens wichtigsten Kooperationspartner auf Wissenschaftsseite wurde die Form der Zusammenarbeit und deren Effektivität für den Zugang zum Knowhow der Wissenschaftseinrichtung sowie die Nutzung von Förderung für diese Zusammenarbeit erhoben. - Eine zweite Schwerpunktfrage betraf das Thema Fachkräftebedarf. Erhoben wurde, wie viele offene Stellen Unternehmen im Jahr 2017 hatten, welchen Qualifikationsniveau diese offenen Stellen vorausgesetzt haben, und wie viele dieser Stellen wie geplant, nur verspätet oder nicht mit dem gewünschten Personal oder gar nicht besetzt werden konnten. Außerdem wurde erfasst, wie viele Auszubildende im Unternehmen im Jahr 2017 beschäftigt waren. Der vorliegende Bericht fasst zentrale deskriptive Ergebnisse zu diesen Schwerpunktfragen zusammen. Die vollständigen Ergebnisse differenziert nach Branchen und Größenklassen sind in Tabellenform online verfügbar. Außerdem werden methodische Aspekte der Befragung (Grundgesamtheit, Stichprobe, Datenaufbereitungs- und Hochrechnungsverfahren) dargestellt.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We consider the problem of testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH-type models. Under the alternative there is a two-component model with a short-term GARCH component that fluctuates around a smoothly time-varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of an explanatory variable. We suggest a Lagrange Multiplier statistic for testing the null hypothesis that the variable has no explanatory power. We derive the asymptotic theory for our test statistic and investigate its finite sample properties by Monte-Carlo simulation. Our test also covers the mixed-frequency case in which the returns are observed at a higher frequency than the explanatory variable. The usefulness of our procedure is illustrated by empirical applications to S&P 500 return data.
    Keywords: C53 ; C58 ; E32 ; G12 ; ddc:330 ; GARCH-MIDAS ; LM test ; Long-Term Volatility ; Mixed-Frequency Data ; Volatility Component Models
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We introduce a method for measuring default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than common in-sample techniques. We determine sovereign default risk connectedness with both CDS and bond data for a more comprehensive picture of the system. We find evidence that several observable factors drive the difference of CDS and bonds, but both data sources still contain specific information for connectedness spill-overs. Generally, we can identify countries that impose risk on the system and the respective spill-over channels. In our empirical analysis we cover the years 2009-2014, such that recovery paths of countries exiting EU and IMF financial assistance schemes and responses to the ECB's unconventional policy measures can be analyzed.
    Keywords: C58 ; G01 ; G15 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; Variance decomposition ; Sovereign risk ; Connectedness ; Credit default swaps ; Bonds ; Eurozone crisis
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: An accurate assessment of tail inequalities and tail asymmetries of financial returns is key for risk management and portfolio allocation. We propose a new test procedure for detecting the full extent of such structural differences in the dependence of bivariate extreme returns. We decompose the testing problem into piecewise multiple comparisons of Cramér-von Mises distances of tail copulas. In this way, tail regions that cause differences in extreme dependence can be located and consequently be targeted by financial strategies. We derive the asymptotic properties of the test and provide a bootstrap approximation for finite samples. Moreover, we account for the multiplicity of the piecewise tail copula comparisons by adjusting individual p-values according to multiple testing techniques. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the test's superior finite-sample properties for common financial tail risk models, both in the i.i.d. and the sequentially dependent case. During the last 90 years in US stock markets, our test detects up to 20% more tail asymmetries than competing tests. This can be attributed to the presence of non-standard tail dependence structures. We also find evidence for diminishing tail asymmetries during every major financial crisis - except for the 2007-09 crisis - reflecting a risk-return trade-off for extreme returns.
    Keywords: C12 ; C53 ; C58 ; ddc:330 ; tail dependence ; tail copulas ; tail asymmetry ; tail inequality ; extreme values ; multiple testing
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    London: Routledge
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This book serves as a guide for local governments and private enterprises as they navigate the unchartered waters of investing in climate change adaptation and resilience. This book serves not only as a resource guide for identifying potential funding sources but also as a roadmap for asset management and public finance processes. It highlights practical synergies between funding mechanisms, as well as the conflicts that may arise between varying interests and strategies. While the main focus of this work is on the State of California, this book offers broader insights for how states, local governments and private enterprises can take those critical first steps in investing in society's collective adaptation to climate change.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Climate change ; local governments ; private enterprises
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Singapore: Springer Open
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This volume analyzes the economic, social, and political challenges that emerging states confront today. Notwithstanding the growing importance of the 'emerging states' in global affairs and governance, many problems requiring immediate solutions have emerged at home largely as a consequence of the rapid economic development and associated sociopolitical changes. The middle-income trap is a major economic challenge faced by emerging states. This volume regards interest coordination for technological upgrading as crucial to avoid the trap and examines how various emerging states are grappling with this challenge by fostering public-private cooperation, voluntary associations of market players, and/or social networks. Social disparity is another serious problem. It is deeply rooted in history in the emerging states such as South Africa and many Latin American countries. However, income distribution is recently deteriorating even in East Asia that was once praised for its high economic growth with equity. Increasing pressure for political opening is another challenge for emerging states. This volume argues that the economic, social, and political problems are interwoven in the sense that the emerging states need to build political consensus in order to tackle the economic and social difficulties. Democratic institutions have not always been successful in this respect.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Middle-income trap ; Emerging economies ; Emerging states ; Global production networks ; Global value chains ; Globalization ; Technological upgrading ; Developmental state ; Embedded autonomy ; Globalization paradox ; Populism ; Social disparity ; Asia ; China ; India ; Brazil ; South Africa ; Turkey
    Language: English
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  • 28
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    Cham: Springer Open
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies' implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; robust policy making ; adaptive policy making ; multiple criteria decision making ; energy and climate policy ; decision making under uncertainty ; collaborative uncertainty modeling
    Language: English
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    Wiesbaden: Springer VS
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: Dieses Open-Access-Buch erläutert ein Handlungsmodell zur Gestaltung sozialer Versorgung. Das Modell beinhaltet 16 Gestaltungsaufgaben, die sich an den wesentlichen Planungs- und Steuerungsaufgaben sozialer Versorgung und den vier Phasen eines Managementkreislaufes (Analyse, Strategieentwicklung, Umsetzung, Weiterentwicklung) orientieren. Dem Handlungsmodell liegt ein prozessorientiertes, reflexives und an der Sozialen Arbeit ausgerichtetes Handlungsverständnis zugrunde, das über "lineare" Planungsansätze hinausreicht. Das Lehrbuch möchte Impulse für eine systematische und zugleich innovative Gestaltung sozialer Versorgung geben.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Sozialplanung ; Sozialmanagement ; Management sozialer Dienstleistungen ; Management sozialer Organisationen ; Sozialpolitische Steuerung ; Methoden der Sozialen Arbeit
    Language: German
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  • 30
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    Cham: Palgrave Macmillan
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access Pivot demonstrates how a variety of technologies act as innovation catalysts within the banking and financial services sector. Traditional banks and financial services are under increasing competition from global IT companies such as Google, Apple, Amazon and PayPal whilst facing pressure from investors to reduce costs, increase agility and improve customer retention. Technologies such as blockchain, cloud computing, mobile technologies, big data analytics and social media therefore have perhaps more potential in this industry and area of business than any other. This book defines a fintech ecosystem for the 21st century, providing a state-of-the art review of current literature, suggesting avenues for new research and offering perspectives from business, technology and industry.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; fintech ecosystem ; crowdfunding ; entrepreneurship ; regulation ; technology innovation ; digital currencies ; blockchain ; artificial intelligence ; big data ; social media ; insurtech ; machine learning
    Language: English
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    Cham: Palgrave Macmillan
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book analyses the development problems of sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) from the eyes of a Korean diplomat with knowledge of the economic growth Korea has experienced in recent decades. The author argues that Africa's development challenges are not due to a lack of resources but a lack of management, presenting an alternative to the traditional view that Africa's problems are caused by a lack of leadership. In exploring an approach based on mind-set and nation-building, rather than unity - which tends to promote individual or party interests rather than the broader country or national interests - the author suggests new solutions for SSA's economic growth, inspired by Korea's successful economic growth model much of which is focused on industrialisation. This book will be of interest to researchers, policymakers, NGOs and governmental bodies in economics, development and politics studying Africa's economic development, and Korea's economic growth model
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Economic Discrimination ; Korean economic growth ; Saemaul Undong ; Nation-building ; Economics and Industrialisation ; Korean development model ; Sub-Saharan African development economics ; Human and social capital
    Language: English
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  • 32
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: We investigate how adopting the euro affects exports using firm-level data from Slovakia and Estonia. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on countries that adopted the euro individually and had different exchange rate regimes prior to doing so. Following the New Trade Theory we consider three types of adjustment: firm selection, changes in product varieties and changes in the average value of the exports that compose the exports of individual firms. The euro effect is identified by a difference in differences analysis comparing exports by firms to the euro area countries with exports to the EU countries that are not members of the euro area. The results highlight the importance of the transaction costs channel related to exchange rate volatility. We find the euro has a strong pro-trade effect in Slovakia, which switched to the euro from a floating exchange rate, while it has almost no effect in Estonia, which had a fixed exchange rate to the euro prior to the euro changeover. Our findings indicate that the euro effect manifested itself mainly through the intensive margin and that the gains from trade were heterogeneous across firm characteristics.
    Keywords: F14 ; F15 ; ddc:330 ; international trade ; common currency areas ; euro adoption ; transaction costs ; Slovakia ; Estonia ; firm-level data
    Language: English
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    Amsterdam: Elsevier
    Publication Date: 2018-11-14
    Description: This study contributes to the understanding of long- and short-term determinants of cooperation among water users. We experimentally investigate the potential of water users’ self-governance in enhancing their contributions to a common pool as opposed to external regulation. Our focus is on the irrigated areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Due to their Soviet past, these countries have a reputation for low bottom-up cooperation potential. Based on the different pre-Soviet irrigation traditions of the two study sites, we assess the effectiveness of short-term incentives compared to long term cultural factors of cooperation. History might matter, but we find it does not predetermine the success of current water decentralization in ancient as compared to relatively recently established irrigation sites. Our study reveals that external regulation, in fact, decreases farmers’ cooperation, whereas face-to-face communication increases it. This finding calls into question the top-down approach prevalent in current water policies of the region. Moreover, it suggests the viability of endogenous cooperation and hence encourages the implementation of truly self-governed water management policies in Central Asia. However, the substantial heterogeneity in individual contributions apparent at the village level also signals a warning that one-size-fits-all approaches to local cooperation are unlikely to succeed.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Water-management ; Self-governance ; Field experiment ; Cultural determinants ; Central Asia
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-05
    Description: Paper models lender’s decision based on project riskiness, trust from borrower’s socioeconomic network, and social cost of default for the borrower. The paper suggests a methodology to estimate aggregate level of trustworthiness of borrower in socio-economic network. Our model links the social cost of default to credit default. A relatively safer project executed by a borrower with lower social cost of default is likely to be a willful defaulter. Similarly, relatively safer project executed by a borrower with high social cost of default is likely to pay-back the loan.
    Keywords: D85 ; G21 ; L14 ; ddc:330 ; Social Economic Network ; Trust ; Credit Risk
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: The influence of politics on economic policy is not fully understood. The challenge to ensure political inclusiveness and economic prosperity remains. Perhaps, one way to attain this objective is by increasing political competition. This paper gathers empirical evidence from Pakistan, a country with a checkered political history characterized by episodes of representative, non-representative, and indirectly elected governments. In recent years, the country has witnessed a gradual strengthening of democratic rules with economic progress. Focusing on nine elections held over 1970 to 2015 the authors measure political competition and estimate its impact on economic policy. Contrary to popular conceptions about Pakistan's economy, they find a positive association between lack of political competition and poor economic policy. This finding holds at national as well as subnational levels in Pakistan and withstands a number of robustness tests.
    Keywords: H21 ; H24 ; H31 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; political competition ; Pakistan ; economic policy ; economic performance ; subnational
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: Menschen mit einem hohen Vertrauen in ihre eigenen Fähigkeiten und Fertigkeiten sind beruflich erfolgreicher, zufriedener und zeigen ein höheres allgemeines Wohlbefinden. Erfolgserlebnisse stärken diese Selbstwirksamkeitsüberzeugung, doch gerade in den boomenden Berufsfeldern mit komplexen geistigen Tätigkeiten fehlt oft die unmittelbare Bestätigung des eigenen Könnens.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: Die Unternehmen in Ost- und Westdeutschland gehen mit nahezu identischen Produktionserwartungen in das Jahr 2019. Die Wachstumsperspektiven sind derzeit in beiden Regionen jedoch spürbar moderater als im Frühjahr 2018 - die Abwärtskorrektur fällt im Westen erheblich stärker aus. Bei den Exporten, Investitionen und bei der Beschäftigung bleiben die ostdeutschen Erwartungen deutlich hinter jenen im Westen zurück.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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  • 38
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: Women in developing countries face challenges in terms of managing their menstrual hygiene. Oftentimes they do not possess the right means nor materials nor have access to the right facilities. Using a newly released dataset for Burkina Faso and propensity score matching, we provide for the first time evidence of a strong causal impact of advanced menstrual hygiene management on work attendance. Access to advanced menstrual hygiene management materials (disposable sanitary pads) reduces work absenteeism of women by about 21 percentage points. When we stratify the sample by religious affiliation, we find the treatment effect to be insignificant for Christian women and strong and significant for Muslim women.
    Keywords: D10 ; I12 ; I14 ; J16 ; O12 ; ddc:330 ; Menstrual Hygiene Management ; Work Attendance ; Period Poverty ; Propensity Score Matching ; Gender Inequality
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  • 39
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    Durham, NC: Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: A popular view of models among economists and philosophers alike is that all models are false, but some are useful. Models are frequently treated as convenient fictions, idealizations, stories about credible worlds, or "near enough" to the truth. But such a understandings pose serious questions, among them: if models are false, how is it that they are so useful? how can they have any bearing on what is actually the case in the world? how can we evaluate them empirically? How can we develop them for greater precision? for understanding how models related to the world, how they can successfully support scientific investigation? The paper argues that these and related questions reflect a fundamental confusion: models are, in fact, useful only to the degree that they are instruments for stating truth. The confusion arises from a failure to understand how models relate to the world analogically. Analogies are fundamentally incomplete and perspectival, so that the truths that state are necessarily piecemeal But models may nonetheless be apt. A critical distinction is drawn between accuracy and precision in modeling. Modeling is related to Charles Peirce's analytical inference. And the application of analytical inference in economics is illustrated with a historical case-study of Lawrence Klein's early econometric models of the U.S. economy.
    Keywords: B40 ; B41 ; B22 ; B23 ; ddc:330 ; model ; factionalism ; idealization ; truth ; perspectival realism ; Charles S. Peirce ; Lawrence R. Klein ; macroeconometric models
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  • 40
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: I study the effect of reference pricing on competition by parallel imports, in particular the market share of parallel imports and the number of parallel traders. First, I analyze the effect of reference pricing on competition by parallel imports in a vertical differentiation model with a locally sourced version and a parallel import offered by n identical parallel traders. Second, I explore the effect of reference pricing on competition by parallel imports using a dataset with prescription drugs with competition from parallel imports. Both model and estimation results suggest that the introduction of reference pricing inreases the market share of the parallel import and the number of parallel traders, while a decrease in the reference price decreases the market share of the parallel import and the number of parallel traders.
    Keywords: F12 ; I11 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; reference pricing ; parallel imports ; pharmaceutical regulation
    Language: English
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  • 41
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: Im Rahmen des vorliegenden IW-Reports werden die Konsequenzen der aktuellen handelspolitischen Herausforderungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft geschätzt und die Größenordnung ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte quantifiziert. Die Simulationen mit dem Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (OEGEM) zeigen, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft erheblich unter einer Eskalation des Handelskonflikts mit den USA leiden würde. In einem Worst-Case-Szenario, bei dem die USA das Zollniveau gegenüber der Europäischen Union (EU) und fünf weiteren wichtigen Handelspartnern um 25 Prozent erhöhen und die betroffenen Länder mit entsprechenden Ver-geltungsmaßnahmen reagieren, dürfte die globale Wirtschaftsleistung um fast 3 Prozent schrumpfen. Etwas stärker fällt der Effekt auf Deutschland mit 3,8 Prozent aus, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) der USA könnte sogar um 4,1 Prozent zurückgehen. Des Weiteren werden die Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) in Kooperation mit der IW Consult aufgezeigt. Befragt wurden mehr als 1.100 Unternehmen in Deutschland nach ihren Erwartungen im Fall einer Zuspitzung des Handelskonflikts. Die Ergebnisse zeigen unter anderem, dass über 40 Prozent der befragten Unternehmen von negativen Effekten auf die Produktion und Beschäftigung in Deutschland ausgehen, sollte der Handelsstreit weiter eskalieren. Bei den US-Exporten gehen sogar über 81 Prozent der bereits in die USA exportierenden Firmen von Einbußen aus. Selbst auf die Investitionen und die bestehende Wertschöpfung deutscher Unternehmen in den USA dürfte die Zuspitzung des Handelskonflikts gemäß der Umfrage negative Effekte auslösen.
    Description: The present IW report estimates the consequences of the current trade policy challenges for the German economy and quantifies the magnitude of their macroeconomic effects. Simula-tions with the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (OEGEM) show that the German economy would suffer significantly from an escalation of the trade conflict with the US. In a worst-case scenario, where the US raises tariff levels by 25 per cent against the EU and five other major trading partners and they implement corresponding retaliatory measures, global economic output is likely to shrink by nearly 3 per cent. The effect on Germany is more pronounced at 3.8 per cent, while US GDP could even decline by 4.1 per cent. Furthermore, the results of a company survey of the German Economic Institute in cooperation with IW Consult are presented. More than 1,100 companies in Germany were asked what they expect in the event of an escalation of the trade conflict. The results show, among other things, that more than 40 per cent of the companies surveyed expect negative effects on production and employment in Germany, should the trade dispute continue to escalate. In terms of US exports, even more than 81 per cent of companies already exporting to the USA expect losses. According to the survey, the escalation of the trade conflict is likely to trigger negative effects, even on investments and the existing engagement of German companies in the USA.
    Keywords: E17 ; F13 ; F47 ; ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: In this paper, I study the effect of a change in the mandatory manufacturer rebate on wholesale prices for pharmaceuticals on competition by parallel imports. First, I analyze the effect of a manufacturer rebate on competition by parallel imports in a two-country model. An increase in the manufacturer rebate increases the market share of parallel imports. Second, I exploit a policy reform in Germany in 2010 that increased the manufacturer rebate by 10 percentage points. Using a data set with prescription drugs with competition from parallel imports, I estimate the effect of the change in the manufacturer rebate on competition by parallel imports. Estimation results suggest that an increase in the manufacturer rebate has increased the market share of parallel imports.
    Keywords: F12 ; I11 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; parallel imports ; manufacturer rebate ; pharmaceuticals ; regulation
    Language: English
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    Toronto: The Bichler & Nitzan Archives
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: A new, capitalism-denying book is on the shelves, and it makes a stunning discovery: ‘Capitalism without competition is not capitalism’! Capitalist crisis, like climate change, tends to breed ‘capitalism deniers’. The problem, argue the deniers, lies not in capitalism but in its ‘distortions’. In its pure form, they maintain, capitalism is the best of all possible worlds. But to the deniers’ chagrin, contemporary capitalism is no longer pristine. Unlike its original, once-upon-a-time version, its current one is subject to distorting ‘imperfections’, ‘shocks’ and ‘exogenous’ events. And it is these aberrations – rather than capitalism itself – that should be blamed for the system’s misfortunes.
    Keywords: L ; L1 ; P ; ddc:330 ; capitalism ; competition ; fundamentalism ; ideology ; neoclassical economics
    Language: English
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    Basel: Springer Nature | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: This article discusses the aggregation problem and its implications for ecological economics. The aggregation problem consists of a simple dilemma: when adding heterogeneous phenomena together, the observer must choose the unit of analysis. The dilemma is that this choice affects the resulting measurement. This means that aggregate measurements are dependent on one’s goals, and on the underlying theory. Using simple examples, this article shows how the aggregation problem complicates tasks such as calculating indexes of aggregate quantity, and how it undermines attempts to find a singular metric for complex issues such as sustainability. [Data and analysis for this paper are available at the Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/3smra/]
    Keywords: P16 ; P48 ; E01 ; C43 ; Q56 ; Q01 ; ddc:330 ; aggregation ; capital stock ; GDP ; natural capital ; sustainability indices
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-09
    Description: Tying in with a small number of studies on green norms, identity and subjective well-being, this paper studies the relationship between holding a green self-image and life satisfaction in the UK. Focusing on (sub-national) regions as the unit of reference, we investigate if and how the individual-level greenness-satisfaction relationship varies with measures of the prevalence and distribution (disparity) of greenness at the regional level, taking these measures as indicators of a green social norm. Two key findings emerge from our analysis. First, life satisfaction is negatively related to the regional-level mean (prevalence) and positively related to the regional-level diversity of greenness, while being unrelated to the degree of polarization of greenness. Taking the prevalence as a direct and diversity as an inverse measure of the validity of a greenness norm, these results are consistent with the idea that the norm is experienced (by greens) as a standard of reference in the process of green status competition or (by non-greens) as a source of social pressure. Second, the well-being benefits from holding a greener self-image are unrelated to the prevalence and diversity of greenness, but positively related to the polarization of greenness for those either very green or not green at all. This is consistent with the idea that green self-image yields well-being benefits through identity, that is, by identifying with the own group and differentiating oneself from other groups - a possibility that relies on sufficiently large differentiation/polarization of groups. We discuss differences between these results and previous findings based on measures of nation-wide prevalence and disparity of greenness.
    Keywords: I31 ; Q51 ; Q58 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; subjective well-being ; norms ; green behavior ; green self-image ; fractionalization ; polarization
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-09
    Description: The Austrian Beveridge curve shifted in 2014, leading to ongoing academic discussions about the reasons behind this shift. While some have argued that the shift was caused by a supply shock due to labour market liberalization, others have stated that matching efficiency decreased. Using a new decomposition method, combined with detailed labour market flow data, we are the first to disentangle supply-side, demand-side and matching factors, which could potentially cause a shift in the Beveridge curve in Austria. We find empirical evidence to confirm that the increase in the unemployment rate in Austria after 2011 can indeed be attributed to a supplyside shock. But, contrary to other research, our analysis shows that the shift in the Beveridge curve after 2014 was mainly caused by a decrease in matching efficiency, indicating a rising mismatch problem in the Austrian labour market.
    Keywords: J62 ; J63 ; E24 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; Beveridge curve ; crisis ; mismatch ; unemployment ; structural unemployment ; vacancies
    Language: English
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  • 47
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: This article provides an overview of key economic concepts in water services with a focus on price-based strategies for demand management in the face of resource scarcity using the case of Nairobi city water services. The paper starts by first presenting key issues and concepts in water economics then looks into detail issues of water pricing and concludes by providing recommendations to the city utility on a novel approach for price-based demand management of scarce water resources. Three key messages emerge from this brief review. First is that water pricing has been used more as an instrument for achieving financial sustainability of the supplier rather than an economic allocation instrument. The message is that if the service provider is not able to maintain the system adequately because of charging the wrong price, the quality of services will deteriorate. Eventually the system collapses leaving people more vulnerable to water-related diseases. Second is that the quality of water governance depends on two factors-the public value that citizens place on water and what they are willing to pay for it and the quality of the relationship between citizens, the state and the managing entity of the service. The Third message is that contrary to conventional economic theory, an increase in price of water doesn’t always signal the consumer to reduce consumption and demand. Research shows that most urban households don’t know the price they pay for water since it makes a very small portion of their budget, so prices don’t affect them much especially when the billing structure is complicated and information not available to users. This calls for urban utilities to increase awareness on the value and cost of water through proper structuring and presentation of water bills to consumers.
    Keywords: A13 ; ddc:330 ; Valuing water ; Economics of Water ; Demand Management
    Language: English
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  • 48
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    Göttingen: Universität Göttingen, Research Training Group (RTG) 1666 - GlobalFood
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: Productivity and efficiency are key performance indicators of improved seeds. Efficiency differences explain part of the variation in productivity. Improved seeds may affect efficiency because farmers often do not apply inputs at optimum. Improved seeds therefore not only directly affect productivity but also indirectly through efficiency. If productivity and efficiency are not estimated jointly, it creates specification problems and it may (over)underestimate benefits of crop improvement research. Previous studies however estimate the productivity and efficiency impacts of improved seeds independently. In this paper, we estimate the joint impact of improved maize seeds on productivity and efficiency using panel data from maize farmers in Ethiopia. Selection biases associated with seeds choice are addressed by estimating production functions using endogenous switching regressions. Our findings show that improved seeds bring productivity and efficiency gains relative to recycled seeds suggesting that the benefits of improved seeds are underestimated by the amount of productivity (efficiency) gains if either of the two are ignored. Unsurprisingly, improved seeds are more productive than traditional seeds, but tradeoffs between productivity and efficiency exist because farmers are less efficient when they use improved seeds than traditional seeds. Our results may inform policy makers to design strategies that could increase productivity at most efficiency.
    Keywords: D22 ; D24 ; Q12 ; Q15 ; Q16 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; productivity ; efficiency ; fresh improved seeds ; recycled seeds ; traditional seeds ; maize ; random effects ; endogenous switching regression ; Ethiopia
    Language: English
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  • 49
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: The unstoppable progress of the demographic transition is determining a progressive decline of the rates of growth of the total population and working age population of the planet, two phenomena that could have a very positive global socioeconomic and environmental impact. Unfortunately, it is also determining a growing demographic polarization between an increasing number of countries, the most developed ones, where working age population will drop, and a decreasing number, the poorest ones, in which it will explode. The former will be affected by a dramatic structural shortage of labour that will make immigration unavoidable, the latter by a dramatic structural excess of labour that will make emigration necessary to avoid political and socioeconomic havoc. This phenomenon will have extremely disruptive effects not only at the country level but also at the planet level unless both groups of countries will understand that the disease provides its own medicine in the form of well planned and organized migration flows that, while responding to the quantitative and qualitative needs of potential arrival countries, will relieve the poorest countries from their structural excess of labour. Obviously there is a problem: this rational solution is in stark contrast with the myopic and xenophobic vision of an emerging political class that funds its success on the fear of immigrants and fuels xenophobic feelings talking advantage of ignorance and fake news. The incoming demographic polarization does also signal the passage from a situation in which labour markets were affected by economic cyclical disequilibrium to a situation in which they will be affected by a demo-economic structural disequilibrium. This new situation calls for an integrated demo-economic modeling and the use of coordinated sets of demographic and economic measures.
    Keywords: J11 ; J2 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; migration, labour market ; demographic transition ; demographic polarization ; structural shortage of labour ; structural excess of labour
    Language: English
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  • 50
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: According to the National Household Survey (ENAHO), approximately three out of four employment relationships within the formal sector of the Peruvian economy are based on temporary contracts. This percentage is larger than that of any OECD country and also considerably larger to that of any other country of the Latin American region. This study aims to elucidate the role that the 2001 labor reform played on these results and the effect this has had on variables associated to Peruvian workers’ well-being. To this end, we exploit the information on contract type and start date (identified by the employment duration), which are reported on the household surveys, to analyze the decision between using fixed-term contracts or indefinite-term contracts. The average impact obtained from a differences-in-differences estimation with matching, having workers with contract but with no health insurance as a control group, is a reduction of 41 percent in the probability of having contracts of indefinite duration in the short term (up to five years after the reform), whereas the long-term impact has been a drop by 70 percent. These results are consistent, and similarly large, as those found in a model of simple differences controlling for workers’ characteristics, firms and economic context. The results are robust to placebo tests and estimations by activity sectors and firm size. These results mean that, due to the reform, by 2015 over 900,000 jobs that could have been of indefinite-term were fixed-term contracts instead. Estimates based on Mincer equations suggest that this meant a loss of around 1.5 billion dollars in workers' labor income in 2015. Also, 36,000 workers would have affiliated to a union, had such reform not been implemented. These figures suggest than, instead of increasing workers’ protection, the reform implemented by the Constitutional Court left a large portion of them unprotected.
    Keywords: K31 ; J63 ; C52 ; ddc:330 ; employment protection ; labor reform ; impact evaluation
    Language: English
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  • 51
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: A brief analysis of the different demographic tendencies that will affect the 65 countries of the Belt and Road Initiative allows to point out that they are largely spread along the path of the demographic transition so that in some working age population will dramatically decline, in others will dramatically increase. The implication is that the first group of countries (epitomized by China, Russia, Thailand, but also by Singapore) will be affected by a structural shortage of labour, the second (well represented by India, but also by Pakistan, Egypt and Philippines) by a structural excess of labour. Therefore, for the countries of the first group immigration will not be an option but a necessity, while for the countries of the second group emigration will not be an option but a necessity. The situation suggests that it would be in the interest of all BRI countries to design, develop and implement a policy framework that would allow them to jointly manage migration flows in the amount and with the educational stricture coherent with their needs. However, such a process is extremely difficult and complex and to succeed needs to be properly directed and orchestrated. The paper argues that given its size, the dimension of its need of foreign labour, and its role in the Belt and Road Initiative it is China that should take the lead of a rational approach that falls well inside the strategies of the Initiative.
    Keywords: J11 ; J2 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; Belt and Road Initiative ; China ; migration ; labour market ; demographic transition ; demographic polarization
    Language: English
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  • 52
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: Russia offers the unique example of a leading centrally planned economy swiftly transforming itself into a market-oriented economy. We offer a comprehensive study of inequality and mobility patterns for Russia, using multiple rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys over the past two decades spanning this transition. We find rising income levels and decreasing inequality, with the latter being mostly caused by pro-poor growth rather than redistribution. The poorest tercile experienced a growth rate that was more than 10 times that of the richest tercile, leading to less long-term inequality than short-term inequality. We also find that switching from a part-time job to a full-time job, from a lower-skill job to a higher-skill job, or staying in the formal sector is statistically significantly associated with reduced downward mobility and increased income growth. However, a similar transition from the private sector to the public sector is negatively associated with income growth.
    Keywords: C15 ; D31 ; I31 ; O10 ; O57 ; ddc:330 ; welfare dynamics ; poverty ; inequality ; pro-poor growth ; panel data ; household surveys ; Russia
    Language: English
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  • 53
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: The international development community has used the World Bank’s Statistical Capacity Index since its inception in 2004. The Sustainable Development Goals create new challenges for national statistical systems to produce high-quality and internationally comparable data. This paper reviews measurement methodologies, posits desired attributes, and presents theoretical and empirical frameworks for the new, improved index to monitor progress in the statistical capacity of nations. The paper illustrates the properties of the updated index with global data from 2016.
    Keywords: C8 ; H00 ; I00 ; O1 ; ddc:330 ; statistical capacity ; statistical indicators ; statistical index ; national statistical system ; data ; measurement
    Language: English
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  • 54
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    Düsseldorf: Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: I evaluate how the probability of substitution of a prescribed drug in a pharmacy depends on the pharmacists' profits and patients' out of pocket costs. I use Finnish population-wide data covering all prescriptions of three popular antidepressants. I find that one euro increase in the total markup difference between the prescribed drug and its cheapest available substitute is associated with 1.7 percentage points decrease in the probability of substitution. This result is driven by brand-name drugs. An increase in the patients' out of pocket cost differential yields a 0.6 percentage points increase in the probability of accepting the substitution. My findings offer novel evidence that pharmacists' incentives are instrumental for prescription drug cost savings and overall cost effectiveness of the health care system.
    Keywords: D78 ; I11 ; I18 ; L11 ; L65 ; ddc:330 ; Generic substitution ; Pharmacies ; Prescription drugs
    Language: English
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  • 55
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: In this study, the prevalent methodology for design of the industrial policy in developing countries was critically assessed, and it was shown that the mechanism and content of classical method is fundamentally contradictory to the goals and components of the endogenous growth theories. This study, by proposing a new approach, along settling Schumpeter's economic growth theory as a policy framework, designed the process of entering, analyzing and processing data as the mechanism of the industrial policy in order to provide "theoretical consistency" and "technical and Statistical requirements" for targeting the growth stimulant factor effectively.
    Description: در این مقاله با استدلال منطقی و علمی ضرورت دو رویکرد "تعمیق آماری و فنی" و "تعمیق تئوریک" برای تدوین و اجرای یک خط مشی صنعتی مورد تاکید قرار گرفت.در این راستا، به سبب بیشترین تطابق تئوری رشد اقتصادی شومپیتر با آنچه که اساسا هدف یک خط مشی صنعتی برای یافتن عامل محرک درونزای سیستم اقتصادی و تقویت و کانالیزه کردن آن در مسیر رشد اقتصادی است، و همچنین با چرخش از متد کلاسیک به سوی متد جدیدی که داده های ورودی به مکانیزم تدوین و اجرای خط مشی صنعتی «طرح تولید محصول» باشد، بستر لازم برای اجرایی شدن این دو رویکرد فراهم شد.
    Keywords: O00 ; O20 ; O25 ; O38 ; E61 ; L52 ; ddc:330 ; industrial policy ; Schumpeter ; endogenous economic growth ; new combinations ; technology ; stimulant factor
    Language: English
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  • 56
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-15
    Description: How do near-zero deposit rates affect (optimal) bank capital regulation and risk taking? I study these questions in a tractable, dynamic equilibrium model, in which forward-looking banks compete imperfectly for deposit funding, subject to a (zero) lower bound constraint on deposit rates (ZLB). At the ZLB, capital requirements become less effective in curbing excessive risk-taking incentives, as they disproportionately hurt franchise values. As a consequence, optimal dynamic capital requirements vary with the level of interest rates if the ZLB binds occasionally. Subsidizing bank funding costs at the ZLB dampens risk-taking, but may reduce overall welfare.
    Keywords: G21 ; G28 ; E43 ; ddc:330 ; Zero lower bound ; Search for yield ; Capital regulation ; Bank competition ; Franchise value
    Language: English
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  • 57
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-15
    Description: The rising cost of old-age dependency in Europe and elsewhere invariably leads to reforms aimed at raising the effective age or retirement. But do older individuals have the health/cognitive capacity to work longer? Following Cutler et al. (2012), this paper asks how much older individuals could work if they worked as much as their younger (50-54) counterparts in similar health/with equal cognitive performance. Contrary to existing papers, this one uses international, European, comparable panel evidence available in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). It considers both physical health and cognition; and health consists of subjective and objective measures. Also, it examines the extensive and intensive margins of work (employment and hours): existing papers only consider the former. Results are essentially fivefold. First, declines in health significantly affect employment. Second, the impact on hours is statistical significant but of much smaller magnitude. People suffering from ill health rarely adjust hours; they rather stop working altogether. Third, cognition is not fundamentally affected by ageing, and it adds little to our capacity to predict how work capacity evolves with age. Fourth, identification issues exist and must be addressed. They comprise unobserved heterogeneity across respondents, justification bias or proxying/measurement errors regarding health. Finally, declining health/cognition explain at most 31% of the actual labour supply reduction between 50 and 70. This confirms the existence of a, currently largely underused, work capacity among older individuals.
    Keywords: J22 ; I10 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; Ageing ; Health ; Cognition ; Labour Supply ; Work Capacity
    Language: English
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  • 58
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-15
    Description: This paper proposes a model of optimal tax-induced transfer pricing with a fuzzy arm's length parameter. Fuzzy numbers provide a suitable structure for modelling the ambiguity that is intrinsic to the arm's length parameter. For the usual conditions regarding the anti-shifting mechanisms, the optimal transfer price becomes a maximising a-cut of the fuzzy arm's length parameter. Nonetheless, we show that it is profitable for firms to choose any maximising transfer price if the probability of tax audit is sufficiently low, even if the chosen price is considered a completely non-arm's length price by tax authorities. In this case, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions to prevent this extreme shifting strategy.
    Description: Ongoing unpublished resarch. The usual disclaimer applies.
    Keywords: F23 ; H26 ; K34 ; ddc:330 ; fuzzy profit shifting ; transfer pricing ; tax evasion ; tax enforcement ; tax penalty
    Language: English
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  • 59
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-18
    Description: In this paper we investigate the quantitative importance of collective agreements in explaining uctuations in Bulgarian labor markets. Following Maffezzoli (2001), we introduce a monopoly union in a real-business-cycle model with government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016), and compare and contrast it to a model with indivisible labor and no unions as in Rogerson and Wright (1988). We find that the sequential bargaining between unions and firms produces an important internal propagation mechanism, which fits data much better that the alternative framework with indivisible labor.
    Keywords: E32 ; E24 ; J23 ; J51 ; ddc:330 ; business cycles ; general equilibrium ; labor unions ; indivisible labor ; involuntary unemployment
    Language: English
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  • 60
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-18
    Description: Distributed ledger technology especially in the form of publicly coordinated validation networks such as Ethereum and Bitcoin with their own monetary circles provide for a revealing litmus test for current financial regulatory schemes. The paper highlights the interrelation between distributed coordination and the emission of virtual currency to make sense of the function of the new monetary phenomenon. It then argues for the regulation of financial services on the ground of the technology to ensure integrity standards. In this respect, it is useful to gear the development of a regulatory scheme towards the existing financial regulatory principles. However, future measures of the regulators must take the distributed nature of the platforms into account by relying on a "regulated self-regulation" of the community. Finally, the article focuses on the shortcomings of the current EU regulatory regimes, especially the regulation frameworks regarding financial services, payment services and electronic money.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 61
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    Dresden: Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and In