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  • 101
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: The present study - descriptive - aimed to investigate federal funds through the management block of the National Health Fund (FNS). The analysis was conducted for all Brazilian municipalities, at the most disaggregated level: Action/Strategy/Service, but also at the Component level. The analysis contemplated the years 2013 to 2016, period or the term of the mayors elected in the 2012. The authors also developed a brief analysis of selected indicators of the budget cycle, for the year 2014. The analysis of the sublevels of the management block of the FNS indicates that there is a great number of actions related to psychosocial care. However, the action that is most geographically widespread is the Program for financing actions of feeding and nutrition. Among the other supported actions, there are many that have a small number of benefited municipalities and/or small values involved. The spatial analysis indicates that there is no concentration in richer regions. On the contrary, many municipalities from the North Region and from Maranhão - one of the poorest states - obtained transfers through the block. This geographical spread is due more because of the component of Implementation of health actions and services, than because of the component of Qualification of SUS's management.
    Keywords: H51 ; I18 ; H11 ; H41 ; ddc:330 ; National Health Fund ; financing ; Unified Health System ; federalism ; basic health care
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 102
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: This paper analyzes the relationship between social mobilization (of public and private actors) and the agenda of official participatory institutions in the field of solidarity economy. More specifically, it was sought to analyze, through participatory observation and documentary analysis, how this relationship occurred during the process of social-state interface promoted by the national conferences, especially the 3rd Conaes, which occurred in 2014 and triggered the elaboration of the National Plan of Solidarity Economy. In the end, it can be said that the conference process was appropriate for the part of the civil society involved in its theme as a link between its traditional mobilization repertoires and the opening of an official channel of contact with a representation of the public power.
    Keywords: H19 ; ddc:330 ; social participation ; public policies ; solidarity economy ; national conferences ; governmental agenda
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 103
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: This paper was based on some previously delimited categories to guide a reflexive debate about the production on the institutionalized social participation in the scope of the public administration in Brazil. To that end, the analytical course was organized and developed around a new concept for a generic definition of these innovations in the field of democratic practice in the country, here called "participatory deliberation institutions" (PDI), each with its particular functional characteristics. For a better operationalization of this concept, the text is ordered from three analytical pairs: i) institutionalization and structural insertion of these innovations; ii) participation and representativeness; and iii) deliberation and effectiveness. On these pairs some arguments in the literature have been embedded and problematized in order to shed light on different issues that fall within this highly complex field, aiming also for a more precise detailing of the central characteristics in terms of the democratic advances and intrinsic contradictions found dispersed in the area debate. With this, it is believed that this text makes a relevant contribution to the mapping of the "master lines" of analysis on a field of practices that, despite the rich production already existing, still makes possible and even lacks other exploratory investigations, given the dynamism inherent in the very process of democratic consolidation.
    Keywords: Z18 ; ddc:330 ; participatory deliberation institutions ; social participation ; participatory democracy ; socio-state interfaces ; political project
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 104
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: In the wake of the debates on Digitalized Finance, and updating some of its main findings regarding the prognoses of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, this paper presents an overview of recent developments, as well as the main tendencies of the process of digitalization of the Brazilian capital markets in the last decades. With this, it aims to shed light on an emerging phenomenon in the sector, presenting data and information that contribute to reflections on the consequences of such process for the Brazilian economy, within the framework of globally interconnected financial markets.
    Keywords: G15 ; G28 ; N26 ; O33 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; digitalization ; capital markets ; Brazil ; financialization ; ICT
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 105
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of the One Computer Per Student Program (Prouca), from the National Education Development Fund (FNDE), performance in the Brazil Test (Prova Brasil) and the National High School Examination (ENEM), both at school level, using the differences-in-differences method combined with the propensity score matching (PSM), and at the student level, using the PSM. The results showed that the program had a positive impact on students' performance in the final years of the Brazil Test (Portuguese and mathematics) and in the Enem language and codes and writing tests in 2010, as well as in all tests in 2011 - including the average of the exams - except in writing. At the school level, the program had a positive impact on the writing test and the average of the Enem assessments, the analysis between 2009 and 2010, and the natural science and writing tests as well as in the total average, in the research between 2009 and 2011.
    Keywords: C32 ; D04 ; ddc:330 ; One Computer Per Student Program ; Enem ; Brazil Test ; differences in differences ; propensity score matching
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 106
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: Although there is agreement that the effect of broadband expansion on the economy, from an general overview, is positive; not an unanimous voice arguments that this impact be positive on all sectors. By applying a multivariate two way panel data model and estimated by bayesian methodology, this study aims to determine the effect of broadband expansion on the sectors of the economy. In order to take into account the geographical, social and economic differences among municipalities cluster analysis was employed in order to isolate groups of municipalities with approximate characteristics. The results illustrate that the impact of broadband is not positive for all sectors, being positive in the most dynamic and technology-intensive sectors such as the industrial and service sectors; and negative where this does not happen as in agricultural sector.
    Keywords: O57 ; O47 ; L69 ; ddc:330 ; broadband ; multivariate model ; panel data ; clustering ; Gibbs sampler
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 107
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
    Description: In the last decades, in an attempt to promote a model of agriculture of high productivity in the semiarid, successive governments have invested in the water infrastructure for the creation of several irrigation districts in the region. The purpose of this work is to analyze historically the evolution of irrigated agriculture and the policy options of the Federal Government in relation to its development in the Brazilian semiarid. From this portrait, the objective is to discuss the potential of irrigated agriculture as an inducer of agricultural development in the region and about different policy options for irrigation in the semiarid region. The success of these ventures in relation to the income and jobs generated, number of farmers settled, companies installed, among other factors, is diverse. There are those perimeters installed at the Petrolina and Juazeiro poles, which have developed over the decades until they reached the current stage, in which a modern and profitable agricultural production is turned to export. Otherwise, there are those that have not been completed and are partially operative.
    Keywords: Q1 ; Q18 ; ddc:330 ; semiarid ; irrigated agriculture ; national irrigation policy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 108
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The word Matopiba refers to the region that is formed by municipalities in the frontier of the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, which in the last two decades has been rapid transformations in its dynamics of land occupation due to expansion of the agricultural activity, a production of grains, mainly of soybean. Although studies show the accelerated expansion of soy, on the other hand, studies show that the disparities resulting from the prosperity of production, such as the concentration of income. Thus, the goal of this article is to provide information on social issues for Matopiba region. This article has information in municipal terms, about living conditions of the resident population in the region. According to data, an improvement of the Municipal Human Development Index (HDI) and Social Vulnerability Index (IVS) in the region as a whole to improve the social conditions and economic dynamism of the region. While the improvement, highlighting that the Matopiba region still presents low and medium Municipal Human Development Index (HDI) in most municipalities, and low and medium Social Vulnerability Index (IVS). Therefore, while the prominence in the production and commercialization of soybeans in the agribusiness sector, the region presents persistence with regard to expressive regional inequality if we compare with the rest of the country.
    Keywords: R1 ; R10 ; ddc:330 ; Matopiba ; social aspects ; human development ; social vulnerability
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 109
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Every 20 years, the United Nations Organization (UN) promotes the Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (Habitat) to discuss the problems of housing and urban development and to sign international commitments that favor the existence and production of settlements Human resources. In preparation for the third edition of Habitat, the UN proposed the production of national reports from Member States to guide negotiations on the new global urban agenda. At the invitation of the National Council of Cities (ConCidades), Ipea was responsible for drafting the Brazilian Report for Habitat III. In this context, the following text discusses the main themes incorporated in this process of discussion / construction of the New Brazilian Urban Agenda.
    Keywords: O38 ; R28 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; New Urban Agenda ; Conference Habitat III ; right to the city ; sustainable urban development
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 110
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The aim of this paper is to evaluate from 2008 on the effects of Brazilian government strategy of R&D tax incentives increase. We used the synthetic control method to estimate its causal impacts from 2010 to 2015. We demonstrated that this strategy had no relevant effect on research and development (R&D) private investment. Despite the substantial increases in tax reductions, it did not leveraged private expenditures. Actually, it helped to produce a policy mix (direct versus indirect support) not effective, which slightly decreased private spending, in comparison to what would have happened without the escalating fiscal incentives.
    Keywords: O310 ; ddc:330 ; innovation ; R&D ; tax incentives ; synthetic control method
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 111
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper aims to analyze the history of Rural Social Security, as well as the structural imbalance of the social security system. The influence of social security spending was studied considering the national agricultural scenario and its complexity. In 2017, the rural pension balance closed in debit of R$ 110.7 billion, the highest value since 2003. With the aging of the Brazilian population, retirement rules may become progressively incompatible with the new demographic reality. In addition, in Brazil, most of the rural beneficiary population is defined as a special insured, which means receiving retirement without having contributed compulsorily. Unlike the urban population, most of the rural benefits were granted through legal proceedings, which expresses the fragility of the system. It is believed that there was an expansion of social security expenditures without the direct link with the performance of activities in the field. When regionalized the study, it is noticed that a great part of the rural benefits were concentrated in the Northeast, region that comprises 60% of the extreme poverty in the rural environment. Thus, the article reinforces the need to separate what is welfare policy from what is social security planning of a contributory nature.
    Keywords: Q1 ; E24 ; I38 ; ddc:330 ; agricultural economy ; rural worker ; social security ; social welfare
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 112
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The issue of fiscal imbalance has become central to the current economic debate. A diagnostic Brazilian fiscal problem emphasizes that the rise in primary expenditure stems from "structural" factors, due to the growth of social security spending and social programs, resulting from the 1988 Constitution. The projected growth of these primary expenditures would make the trajectory untenable of the public debt / GDP indicator. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt policies that limit the growth of primary expenditures of the federal public sector, especially social security expenditures and social programs. The objective of this study is to critically discuss this diagnosis, emphasizing that the high expenditure on federal public debt interest services is an important factor that hinders the achievement of fiscal balance, as well as the country's economic growth. The evidence presented in the paper suggests that the achievement of a sustainable fiscal balance requires alteration of the current institutionality of public debt management, inherited from the period of high inflation, which, because of several rules of operation of the primary and secondary public debt markets discussed in the paper, interest rates converge to international standards. The fiscal cost of the institutional arrangement of the management of the brazilian public debt sums up the costs of the institutional complementarities built in the last decades with the monetary and exchange rate policy. These complementarities create a network of institutional arrangements with the attribute of path dependence, which makes it difficult to change in order to reduce these fiscal costs.
    Keywords: B52 ; E43 ; E63 ; H62 ; H63 ; ddc:330 ; fiscal imbalance ; primary expenditure ; public debt ; interest service
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 113
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Financial constraints on Brazilian firms are very high compared to advanced economies. In Brazil, 59% of firms have access to a bank loan or a credit line. In developed countries, the average percentage is 95%. Loan collateral requirements are much higher in Brazil (95% of the loan value) than the developed country average (50% of the loan value). The interest rate spread in Brazil is very high in relation to the average of developed countries (12% in Brazil and 3% in developed countries). In this context, the objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of reductions in three different financial constraints on the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Brazil. In more specific terms, our main goal is to assess which of the three financial frictions (cost of participation in the credit market, borrowing limit or cost of monitoring) is the most important to affect per capita GDP in Brazil. To reach our goal, we used the theoretical framework developed in Dabla-Norris et al. (2015). This structure consists of a version of the neoclassical growth model with heterogeneous agents and three financial frictions. The model is calibrated for the Brazilian economy in 2009 and we perform simulation exercises in which we evaluate the impacts of reductions in financial frictions. In this text, we perform three exercises. In the first one, the reduction in the cost of participation in the credit market (which increases financial access to the level of developed countries) generates an increase in per capita GDP of 3.6%. In the second, the reduction in the cost of monitoring (which raises system efficiency to the level of developed countries) generates a rise in GDP per capita of 1.7%. Finally, in the third, we evaluated a relaxation in the indebtedness constraints that would be obtained if the collaterals as a proportion of the loans in Brazil were equal to the average of the developed countries. The results show that the reduction of collaterals in Brazil would raise GDP per capita by 12%. In this context, the financial constraint with the greatest impact on GDP per capita, in the Brazilian case, is the borrowing limit. In this sense, policies aimed at reducing borrowing constraints will have a greater impact on GDP than policies aimed at reducing the spread or increasing participation in the credit market.
    Keywords: E44 ; O11 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; financial frictions ; GDP per capita ; financial constraints ; heterogeneous agents ; occupational choice
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 114
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The growing demand for urban infrastructure and public services provided in decentralized way in Brazil, combined with the recent fiscal crisis caused by the economic recession and governmental transfers reduction, has increased the debate about the own municipal taxes strengthening, where the urban property tax would be the first point in the agenda, which causes low economic distortions and can be progressive. Therefore, this study aims to identify the causes of the recent low and heterogeneous level of property tax revenues amongst Brazilian municipalities based on a sample of 53 municipalities (clustered in six groups) to estimate a feasible revenue potential to be achieved, identifying the main barriers of this aim, and proposing legal and administrative reforms. Based on a property tax performance model, the study verified that the sampled property revenues could increase from 0.5% to 0.9% of municipal GDP, which would represent an average increase in total municipal revenues of 12%. This could be reached if the fiscal cadaster coverage increased from 80% to 90%, the taxation on property market values from 0.34% to 0.48%, and the collection rate from 67% to 80%. The study highlights that the main legal and administrative policies to be adopted to reach this potential would include: a) Modernizing and updating the physical and personal database of the fiscal cadasters; b) Implementing technical valuations that reach market values; c) minimizing exemptions and reviewing tax rates level, rather applying selective and progressive tax rates when the intention is to protect the poorer; d) restructuring tax rates in according to budgetary needs and the results of administrative reforms; and e) facilitating voluntary taxpayers' compliance by financial facilities while enforcing delinquency using the "notice of dishonor" of tax arrears under the public notaries. At national level, the proposals of legal reforms would include: a) changing the Fiscal Responsibility Law to include a mandatory 4-years revaluations cycle, and the preparation of administrative municipal tax reports to improve transparency; b) under a comprehensive national tax reform, merging the municipal urban property tax and the federal rural property tax, into a single, locally legislate and administrate broad property tax with fiscal and environmental purposes; and c) expanding and relaxing rules of the national "Program of Modernization of Tax Administrations" (PMAT) to better qualify human resources, incentivizing the creation of intermunicipal corporations that include tax administration purposes, and limiting the program collaterals to the own municipal revenues generated, in order to minimize the budgetary risks and attract more small municipalities.
    Keywords: H2 ; H24 ; H7 ; H71 ; ddc:330 ; Brazil's property tax ; real estate taxation ; fiscal federalism ; local public finances ; tax administration
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 115
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: J10 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; Bevölkerungsentwicklung ; Bevölkerungsprognose ; Regionalentwicklung ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 116
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: How the Executive builds its own legislative agenda and which role does the Presidency play? This article partially answers the two questions and specifies how the formulation and the division of labor among its members - parties, bureaucracies, the Presidency and the President - are structured. Even when the President is strong, a coalition government needs to consider other partner's policy and office demands. We identify and translate how and when this process occurs. We collected data from detailed interviews with those who held key positions inside the Presidency or ministries and made documental analyses. The Executive has a dual agenda. The Presidency proposes and conducts a relevant and clearly identifiable part of the policies formulated in the government and, in any case, it is a mediator of the dialogue among cabinet members, before giving the approval for sending the bills to the Congress. The presidential legislative agenda is continuously monitored by Casa Civil while inside the Executive, and has its own timing - faster - and protocols; the "ministerial" agenda follows another one. In both agendas the Presidency gives the last word, building or imposing consensus.
    Keywords: Z19 ; ddc:330 ; Executive Branch ; Presidency of the Republic ; Casa Civil ; government coordination ; coalition presidentialism
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 117
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The recent financial crisis shed a new light on issues that, previously, were not perceived as serious or important. It highlighted the close ties between fiat money and government bonds denominated in it that imply a strong relationship between Treasury and Central Bank. Two ill-conceived views of the "new consensus" on money that had turned into taboos were also put in evidence. The first, derived from the quantitative theory of money, concerns the rejection of unsterilized monetary expansion; the second, directly related to the neoliberal ideology, prohibits or imposes strict limits on the role of central banks in the financing of public debts.
    Keywords: E580 ; ddc:330 ; financial crisis ; monetary policy ; quantitative easing ; debt monetization ; financial markets
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 118
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The discussion around the possible impacts of the recently proposed pension reform (Constitutional Amendment Bill No. 287/2016) on poverty and inequality has been largely impressionistic to date. The present study tries to bridge this gap by using counterfactual microsimulations based on the 2015 National Household Survey (PNAD). These simulations allow for the comparison of poverty and inequality indicators observed in 2015 with estimates for the full implementation of two different versions of the pension reform (the proposed by the Executive and the proposed by the Chamber of Deputies). The effects of implementing the reform are computed both for the overall proposals and for each of their components. Finally, these effects are also estimated on the age structure expected for 2040. The simulations suggest that the pension reform would produce only modest distributive effects. The Executive version would have a larger impact (reaching, directly or indirectly, almost 20 per cent of the Brazilian population). It would increase the poverty rate (based on the ¼-of-the-minimum-wage poverty line) from the current 9.4 per cent to 11.1 per cent. Inequality would increase marginally. The Legislative version would marginally increase the poverty rate (in 0.4 percentage point) and decrease inequality marginally. The results do not support excessively optimistic or pessimistic perceptions about the possible effects of the pension reform on poverty and inequality. ¼-of-the-minimum-wage
    Keywords: D31 ; H31 ; H55 ; ddc:330 ; pension reform ; poverty ; inequality
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 119
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In this study we document trends in the allocation of time by gender in Brazil. In particular, we analyze trends in market work hours, home work hours (household chores), commute and leisure times in Brazil along 2001-2015. Analysis is made by gender and is based on the National Household Survey (PNAD). Results show that men enjoy more time of leisure than women, although this difference is reducing over time. For both men and women, there is an increase in leisure time. Specifically, we show that leisure for men increased by 4 hours per week (driven by a decline in market work hours) and for women by 7 hours per week (driven by a decline in home production work hours).
    Keywords: D12 ; D13 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; time use ; leisure ; labor supply ; gender
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 120
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper aims to apprehend the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games, measuring their effects on the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of both Rio de Janeiro city and its metropolitan area, from 2012 to 2015. By using the synthetic control method, we found out that the games delayed and mitigated the effects of the national intense macroeconomic crisis on the Rio's GDP per capita. The results point out that there were substantial increasing positive effects during those years, for both municipal and metropolitan levels. In the first case, the GDP per capita would have been almost 7.5% smaller if the games hadn't happened-which means it was approximately R$ 3,694.76/year higher than it would have been in a no games scenario. Regarding the metropolitan area, the GDP per capita would have been nearly 5.1% lesser. It improved about R$ 1,912.38/year due to the intervention. Furthermore, we verified that, if the games had not taken place, Rio's real GDP per capita would have gone back to 2007 levels. Because of the games, its least level equaled that of 2012.
    Keywords: Z20 ; ddc:330 ; Olympics ; Olympic Games ; Rio 2016 ; sinthetic control method
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 121
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This study analyzes the most relevant political and economic factors that conditioned the institutionalization trajectory of the brazilian Public Employment, Labor and Income System (SPETR). For this, the analytical focus was the financing mechanisms of the Fund of Support to the Worker. Based on a broad analysis of legal instruments and accounting for FAT's annual exercises since its implementation, it has been noted that, as current expenditures have increased in relation to revenues, especially in view of the mandatory constitutional programs (unemployment insurance and salary bonuses), such financing arrangement began to show signs of fragility, since the space to cover discretionary current expenses that make up the other operational dimensions of SPETR has been reduced. However, the main vector of depletion of FAT's financial capacity comes from economic policy decisions within the federal government that have transcended even the decision-making sphere created for this purpose, the Codefat. Decisions with the greatest impact on the system came unilaterally and without any compensation from the economic policy summit of the different governments since the mid-1990s, mainly affecting their revenue stream, particularly revenue earmarking and tax relief.
    Keywords: E22 ; E62 ; E65 ; H53 ; I38 ; J38 ; J68 ; ddc:330 ; public employment system ; Fund of Support to the Worker ; social policy ; institutional change ; job market
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 122
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper aims to subsidize the current debate on tax reform, showing how the theoretical assumptions that supported the current model of income taxation in Brazil are undergoing a significant international revision, both as a consequence of the increasing inequality and the maturation of the theory of optimal taxation. This review indicates that both the progressivity and the taxation of capital income can be made compatible in a neoclassical framework that seeks to balance the search for equity and economic efficiency. In this sense, it is concluded that at least the exemption of excess return of capital (in the form of the total exemption of distributed dividends, as in Brazil) should be removed from the Brazilian tax system, suggesting the Nordic dual income tax as a reference for a proposed reform.
    Keywords: A14 ; B20 ; D63 ; H21 ; H24 ; ddc:330 ; theory of optimal taxation ; dual income tax ; dividends
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 123
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The Social Security Reform Bill (PEC) no 287/2016, along with its subsequent modifications, attempts to promote important and necessary parametric adjustments in the Brazilian Social Security system, with clear focus on its social insurance pillar. Put it simply, regarding the General Social Insurance System (RGPS), the original proposal stablished the stiffening of the eligibility requirements for claming benefits, mainly (but not only) old-age pensions, for which the insured would be required to meet newly established or increased minimum access criteria (mostly in terms of age and waiting periods), common to all types of insured workers (65 years of age and 25 years of contributions). The sole modality for voluntary retirement remaining in the post-reform RGPS (when the unavoidable transitional rules are no longer applicable), would demand, for the urban clientele, a minimum age of 65 (men) or 62 years (women) and a minimum waiting period of 25 years of effective financial contributions; as for the rural clientele, the minimum age would be of 60 (men) or 57 years (women), with the minimum waiting period maintained at the current level of 15 years (although, unlike the ongoing prevailing rules, there would be a requirement for actual financial contributions, not only for proof of rural activity). The current version of the reform bill preserved the minimum waiting period of 15 years in force at RGPS (for both clienteles, urban and rural, with the latter maintaining the sufficiency of the proof of rural activity as condition for retirement) and the rural minimum retirement age for women (55 years), in addition to maintaining the substitutive proposal for the urban minimum retirement ages (65 (H), 62 (M)). The analyzed data, extracted from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) and administrative records of the RGPS, indicate substantive improvements on social security coverage in the last decades (considering employed workers and the elderly) and in the contribution density measured for retirees (estimated in terms of the evolution on the average number of years of contribution or activity registered up until the time of retirement). Still, there seem to be evidence of possible limits for the continuous enhancement of these indicators, at least to the extent necessary to face this aspect of the reform proposal, perhaps too strict when taken into consideration the Brazilian socioeconomic reality and perspectives and in the light of what is internationally considered to be the more appropriate approach in this matter. The PEC no 287/2016 has important merits and conceives a more sustainable social insurance system, but some of its aspects, such as the recently proposed adjustments to the minimum waiting period for retirement, were properly reformulated.
    Keywords: I38 ; H55 ; ddc:330 ; social insurance ; social insurance reform ; minimum waiting period to entitlement of benefits ; social insurance coverage
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 124
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Brazilian exports of industrialized products in the period 2005-2016, with approaches that allow identifying some factors that characterize this process, not only at the level of industrial activity as a whole, but also in terms of the sectors of according to the National Classification of Economic Activity (CNAE) of IBGE. It is important to emphasize that it is not intended to identify the determinants of poor export performance, but to contribute to a better understanding of what happened with the country's industrial exports. In order to do this, we use disaggregated databases of Brazilian exports and world imports, for which we have carried out some exercises of dismembering exports in different ways, in order to analyze and measure the magnitude and relevance of issues such as the loss of competitiveness of the sector, the effect of relative prices and the effect of the composition of sales in terms of products and countries of destination.
    Keywords: F13 ; F14 ; O25 ; ddc:330 ; international trade ; competitiveness ; industrial policy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 125
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This study had the objective of evaluating the impact of the Broadband Program in Schools (PBLE) on the educational quality of schools. For this, two indicators were used: Basic Education Development Index (Ideb) and the average of the National High School Exam (Enem). Adopting differences-in-differences method (DiD) and Panel Data, with and without pairing, it was possible to demonstrate that: i) with data from Ideb referring to the initial years of elementar education, the impact of the program in schools was negative; and ii) in relation to the final years of elementary education, there were improvements in schools in the Southeast and Central West. In addition, the Enem data confirmed which schools in the Southeast region showed improvement in math test (MT), with a significant increase varying between 3% and 4% in performance, but worsened test scores for languages and codes (LC). For the Northeast region, the program had positive effects on the natural science test (NC), but negative on the MT test.
    Keywords: D04 ; I28 ; C21 ; ddc:330 ; educational quality ; Broadband Program in Schools (PBLE) ; differences in differences method (DiD) ; evaluation of public policies
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 126
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: C21 ; C53 ; E22 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Investitionspolitik ; Wirkungsanalyse ; Investition ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 127
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: R590 ; ddc:330 ; Regionalpolitik ; Föderalismus ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 128
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In order to prepare and employ naval power and contribute to national defense, the Brazilian Navy, through its programs and projects, seeks to develop means of implementation of naval war operations and actions suitable for its main tasks - sea denial and control, and power projection. A significant portion of these efforts is the Submarine Development Program (PROSUB), which the ultimate purpose is to develop the first Brazilian nuclear-powered submarine. This paper aims to emphasize the importance of PROSUB (especially regarding the nuclear submarine) to the accomplishment of the Brazilian Navy constitutional mission and to the country's development and security, notably stressing its positive externalities (in technological, human resources and social terms) and the importance of its continuity and enhancement.
    Keywords: F5 ; H56 ; L64 ; ddc:330 ; Submarine Development Program (PROSUB) ; Brazilian nuclear submarine ; national defense ; geopolitics ; defense industry ; Defense Industrial Base (DIB) ; Blue Amazon ; maritime power ; public policies ; Brazilian Navy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 129
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The aim of this article is to describe the new stage of development of the banking system whose dynamics led to the global financial crisis of 2008. The main feature of this stage, which emerged on the threshold of the 21st century, is the inextricable interpenetration between the balance sheets of the banking system and the so-called Shadow Banking System (SBS), which was made possible by a set of financial innovations traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) markets. Such configuration, by multiplying and globally redistributing the risks present in the system to a variety of financial institutions, was responsible for the transformation of a classic credit crunch - wherein the sum of potential losses corresponding to loans with low collateral is known -, into a systemic financial crisis in the international arena.
    Keywords: F30 ; G20 ; ddc:330 ; banking system ; Shadow Banking System ; financial innovations ; global financial crisis
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 130
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper calculates effective tariffs by industrial sector for Brazil from 2000 to 2015. Effective tariff differs from nominal tariff in that it takes into consideration the protection given to industrial inputs so that a sector whose products are protected by high tariffs may also be burdened by high tariffs on its inputs, leading to a lower effective tariff. Two series are calculated: 2000 to 2009 and 2010 to 2015. The reason for this is that the National Accounts changed their classification of economic sectors in 2010. Results indicate that: i) effective rates of protection are highly varied in Brazil, according to sector; ii) effective rates of protection have fallen slightly in the 15 years from 2000 to 2015; and iii) some sectors have seen their rates of protection vary considerably over this fifteen-year period, but in most sectors the ERP did not vary much.
    Keywords: F13 ; ddc:330 ; trade policy ; effective rates of protection ; nominal rates of protection
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 131
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text aims to analyze the dynamics of the budget cycle (planning and execution process) of the solidarity economy policy in the federal government. For this purpose, a more general analysis was carried out on the strategic design of implementation and the operational evolution of the programs inserted in this theme, with the main focus being the budget execution potential of the respective administrative unit. The temporality of the analyzes covers all the recent experience of solidarity economy in the agenda of the federal government from the different Pluriannual Plans (PPAs) carried out during this period: 2004-2007, 2008-2011, 2012-2015 and 2016-2019. The results show that the programs developed for the implementation of the policy have undergone several problems that influenced the capacity to execute the actions and activities planned. Despite the maintenance of the thematic in the government agenda during all these years, everything indicates that the National Secretariat of Solidarity Economy (SENAES), an institutional locus of solidarity economy policy in the federal government, faces a moment of crisis as a paradigm of public policy in the field of work, which creates serious uncertainties about its continuity.
    Keywords: H83 ; J23 ; ddc:330 ; solidarity economy ; social policies ; budget cycle ; state capabilities ; government agenda
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 132
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Rural workers in Brazil can access old-age pensions five years earlier than urban workers. The objective of this study is to evaluate whether unifying the ages of eligibility among these groups (a measure proposed in the last failed pension reform) makes sense from a comparative perspective, and considering the social risks faced by these two groups. This study is based on administrative records from the National Institute of Social Security (Instituto Nacional do Seguro Social - INSS), and data from the 2015 wave of the National Household Sample Survey (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios - PNAD) and from the 2013 wave of the National Health Survey (Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde - PNS), both conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística - IBGE). International experience suggests that having different ages of eligibility for old-age pensions for rural and urban workers is, at best, an unusual practice. Survival analysis (using both the Kaplan-Meier procedure and the Cox model) performed on INSS administrative records reveals that rural pensioners do not live less than urban ones. Whereas rural workers are disproportionately affected by social and health risks, they comprise a minority of the people living under vulnerable social and health conditions in absolute terms. The conclusion is that there seems to be no solid rationale for having a lower (and arbitrary) retirement age for rural workers.
    Keywords: D78 ; H55 ; J26 ; ddc:330 ; rural pensions ; pension reform ; survival analysis
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 133
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: As emerging economies experience a boom in capital inflows after the global financial crisis, governments were increasingly concerned about the downsides of these inflows. Even the IMF (International Monetary Fund), long a stalwart proponent of financial liberalization, has engaged in a new debate on capital flow management. Drawing lessons from empirical case studies on Brazil and South Korea, this paper finds that the new IMF framework remains insufficient in two main aspects. First, by defining "capital flow management measures" (CFMs) as a temporary instrument embedded in an overall strategy of financial opening, the organization insists in the general advantages of financial liberalization, which poses serious limits to emerging economies' policy space. Second, the Fund insists in in a separation of prudential financial regulation, which should be permanent, and only temporary CFMs. Yet, the case studies of Brazil and Korea presented in this paper show that especially for emerging markets with rather diversified domestic financial markets, both types of measures are interdependent and overlapping. Additionally, we demonstrate in our case studies the relevance of a third type of regulation, lying on foreign exchange (FX) derivatives instruments, which may also be required to effectively manage foreign investors' portfolio reallocations and their impact.
    Keywords: F3 ; F4 ; ddc:330 ; capital flows ; currency derivatives ; global financial crisis ; regulation ; emerging economies
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 134
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper estimates the effect of non-Iberian immigration to Brazil based on historical and contemporary microdata. The historical base encompasses over 1.7 million immigrant records; the contemporary has more than 165 million records. The estimation of immigrant numeracy suggest that Stolz, Baten e Botelho (2013) underestimated their skills and, therefore, their impact on Brazil. An algorithm classified the surnames of contemporary Brazilians according to their ancestral origins. Two counterfactual estimates are constructed in order to estimate the income per capita if there had never been any non-Iberian immigration. The first counterfactual is built upon the regression of income on the percentages of each ancestral group in municipalities. The second, results from the regression of individual wages on the surname ancestry workers. The coefficients are used to estimate income in couterfactuals Brazils with no descendants of immigrants. It was estimated that in the absence of non-Iberian immigrants today's income would be from 12.6 % to 17 % lower.
    Keywords: F22 ; O54 ; ddc:330 ; immigration ; human capital ; numeracy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 135
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The purpose of this work is to identify the institutional network of the National Road System (SNV) to illustrate and discuss its complexity. A qualitative-quantitative analysis of legislation permitted to circumscribe objectives and limits and to identify key members and interactions. This showed that there is a limitation and mismatch of information that may hinder its understanding and compromise the synergy of a complex institutional network, allowing recent legal changes purged important players to the SNV interact in a macro context, for example. Furthermore, it was possible to identify the high involvement of actors that are not very evident in the processes of public policy making but important for the results in a macro context. In a timely manner, the work presents a map with the institutional network of the SNV, which contributes to a greater understanding of a broader and more complete scenario of the Brazilian transport system.
    Keywords: H41 ; L78 ; O17 ; O18 ; ddc:330 ; National Road System ; system approach ; infrastructure ; transport
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 136
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text is part of the project Radiografia do Brasil Contemporâneo, developed by the Ipea between 2015 and 2016. Particularly, by a qualitative approach, the research analyzes the trajectories of individuals living in the city of Salvador, capital of Bahia, noting the experiences of family socialization, the routes in educative institutions, and the occupational insertion, as well as the broader access to monetary resources. As a result, by focusing on the popular classes, the research elaborates two types of family socialization: family socialization by deprivation and protective family socialization.
    Keywords: D10 ; J12 ; J13 ; M52 ; ddc:330 ; family ; class ; work ; education ; socialization
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 137
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Despite being home to about 1 billion people (UN-Habitat, 2010) worldwide slums have received little attention in the economic literature. Data on slums is scarce and few studies have investigated the emergence of these pockets of poverty and inadequate housing scattered between otherwise regular urban areas. We bring some empirical grounding to this debate, by combining Census, terrain topography and water bodies data for Brazil. Thus, we provide the first consistent estimates on location, growth and the socio-economic characteristics of their inhabitants for every slum in Brazil. We show that while there is a strong association between income and distance to the city center for formal housing agents, the same association is less clear for informal housing agents. Moreover, the spatial dispersion of slums varies significantly between metropolitan areas. We propose one explanation for this: the role of geography. In fact, topographic and environmental conditions of informal housing areas are worse. In some extent, risky life conditions are the cost of having access to the opportunities only found with the proximity to the central formal city.
    Keywords: O15 ; O18 ; R31 ; ddc:330 ; slums ; intra urban location ; topography ; hydrography
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 138
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The agricultural frontier known as Matopiba, has shown considerable growth in recent years. This dynamism results from the agricultural production of grains such as soybean, corn and cotton in large properties and with use of machinery and equipment. Thus, the work measures aspects of the economic dynamics of the region, with the characterization of agricultural, industrial and service activities and mapping the infrastructure and logistics. It was observed that even with strong growth, the region still has bottlenecks to be overcome to facilitate the storage and flow of production, such as ports, highways and railroads. In addition, it suffers from social inequality, which demands public policies to balance the best use of resources and the fair distribution of income. Thus, it is possible to affirm that it is an enclave region of difficult coalition due to the different forces existing in the region, such as business agriculture, preservation areas, family agriculture, quilombolas and indigenous.
    Keywords: Q1 ; R1 ; R11 ; ddc:330 ; Matopiba ; economics development ; infrastructure ; logistics
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 139
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper intents to empirically verify whether some of the confidence indexes more popular in Brazil have effectively been useful in recent years to build reliable forecasts on the evolution of key indicators of economic activity, as well as evaluate the impact of the rapid reversion of the indexes in May 2016 on the reliability of those forecasts. With this aim a series of simple econometric models was estimated, including and excluding the period after that reversion, relating the evolution of activity indicators to that of the confidence indexes alone and, afterwards, also to a set of traditional macroeconomic indicators, assessing the joint significance of the parameters and the adjusted adjusted ² coefficient. The results showed the analyzed indexes are indeed able to contribute to the building of forecasts on the evolution of industrial production and retail sales. However, this contribution is very heterogeneous variating depending on the index being considered and, generally, relatively low, what, associated to the reduced size of the samples, recommends caution in the interpretation of the forecasts built on them. Such a caution is even more needful in moments like 2016, when the change in the indexes with no similar movement in the activity indicators reduced its predictive power in most of cases.
    Keywords: D84 ; E27 ; ddc:330 ; confidence indexes ; macroeconomic forecasting
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 140
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Family farms - whether small, medium-sized or large - remain as the largely predominant unit of production in agriculture throughout the world. This work examines the succession process in such entrepreneurships, through which the accumulated knowledge in management and the business assets are transmitted from generation to generation. The interlacing between family and business objectives is discussed, as well as the processual feature of the intergenerational transition. Critical aspects pertaining to its unfolding are pointed out, such as the importance of an analysis of the business financial and economical viability and the communication over themes like the fairness or equanimity in the distribution of assets.
    Keywords: Q1 ; D1 ; D23 ; ddc:330 ; family farms ; succession ; management ; agribusiness
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 141
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: I21 ; I28 ; ddc:330 ; Schulpolitik ; Weiterführende Schule ; Lehrplan ; Philosophie ; Soziologie ; Bewertung ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 142
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The text discusses possibilities of public policies for the development of biopharmaceuticals in Brazil, with emphasis on monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). First section discusses the basic concepts about biotechnology, biopharmaceuticals and monoclonal antibodies in order to sustain the later development of the work. Next, it discusses the evolution of the global pharmaceutical industry, emphasizing biopharmaceuticals, its value chain and general industry challenges. Then, it discusses the Brazilian scenario, emphasizing industry structure, demand, mainly of SUS (Brazilian Health System), regulation and actors involved in the chain or value network. Finalizing the text, a discussion on possibilities and alternatives for the development of public policies that help to leverage the development of this relevant industry.
    Keywords: O38 ; L65 ; ddc:330 ; biopharmaceuticals ; drug innovation ; public policy
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 143
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The objective of this study is to analyze the determinants of private investment, especially private participation in infrastructure, focusing on the institutional quality of emerging economies. The emerging economies analyzed (Argentina, Brazil, China, Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, Ukraine, Uruguay and Venezuela) accounted for approximately 80% of the EMBIPLUS index and 60% of the EMBIGLOBAL index, reference indexes of the J.P. Morgan bank correspond in August 2016. The results show that most of the institutional variables analyzed, in particular, economic freedom and regulatory quality, actually explain the number of projects and the investment figure with private participation in infrastructure for the group of emerging economies analyzed in the period 1990-2015 even controlling for liquidity and global risk shocks.
    Keywords: G18 ; F3 ; G1 ; ddc:330 ; infrastructure investments ; emerging economies ; institutional governance
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 144
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Keywords: H51 ; H77 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; Soziale Sicherheit ; Sozialversicherung ; Sozialreform ; Brasilien
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 145
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text for discussion addresses the implications of the new tax regimes - Union and states - in the financing of public education. It adopts the disaffection of taxation as the northern implications, and concludes that the changes generated a less cooperative, more restrictive in terms of resources, and seemingly divergent federal principles. The changes also imposed an overload on municipalities that extrapolate their tax capacity.
    Keywords: H68 ; H52 ; I22 ; ddc:330 ; new tax regimes ; financing ; public education
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 146
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper verified the predictive performance of probabilistic record linkage algorithms for the integration big sized real databases, evaluating the effects of the blocking key definition, as well as string metric functions and phonetic code pairing algorithms with respect to the prediction's quality and computational complexity. A bibliographical survey of the main deterministic and probabilistic record linkage methods was carried out, as well as of recent advances combining machine learning techniques and main packages and implementations available in open-source R language. The results can provide heuristics for problems of administrative records integration at national level and have potential value for the formulation and evaluation of public policies
    Keywords: C52 ; C55 ; C65 ; C80 ; C88 ; ddc:330 ; pairs linking ; blocking ; administrative records ; Big Data ; R
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 147
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This text describes the structure of federal funding of culture, its dynamism and composition. It analyzes the expenses of the Ministry of Culture, its evolution and changes of composition. It also looks at the incentive resources, part of the federal funding system, which are deployed in new corporate resources and in the Union's fiscal waiver. Financing is considered part of the public policy instruments having an ideational dimension, pluralization of sources, direct support for the arts and culture, encouragement of private mentoring through incentives, conservation and strengthening of the State to carry out public policies etc. Financing is considered part of the public policy instruments, having a symbolic dimension where ideas and justifications appear as a pluralization of sources, direct support for the arts and culture, encouragemente of private mentoring through incentives, conservation and strengthening of the State to carry out public policies etc. Associated with these ideas are innumerable controversies, among them the senses of relations State/market, disreponsibilization of the State by cultural public policies, predominance of the interests of big corporations etc. However, the policy instruments can be seen by their results, in the effective and material actions that are mirrored in the structure of the expenditures, in the concrete and selective support to groups and in the distribution of resources in the territory. Thus, the discussions that follow link the idea and materialities present in the financing, following some of the controversies about the instruments and results of the federal funding system of culture
    Keywords: Z18 ; ddc:330 ; cultural financing system ; direct expenses ; tax breaks ; cultural budget
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 148
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The agricultural frontier expanded through the Brazilian Cerrado, mainly due to the intensive use of knowledge and technology. Livestock production growth is shown in the regions of the Midwest, Matopiba (in the northeastern Cerrado) and Amazon border. It aims to present a diagnosis of this expansion, an analysis of the land sparing effect and a comparison between production and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Although the agricultural sector is largely responsible for emissions of GHG, due to enteric fermentation and soil fertilization, the potential of livestock production to mitigate climate change problems is also major compared to other economic activities. Finally, a methodology for calculating total factor productivity with GHG emissions in livestock production is proposed, an indicator to classify the importance of productive activities in terms of environmental sustainability, in order to assist design of public financing policies and sustainable development programs.
    Keywords: O13 ; O44 ; Q10 ; ddc:330 ; agricultural frontier ; mitigation ; technology ; land sparing effect ; emissions
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 149
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The agricultural sector is central to achieving internationally agreed commitments in terms of mitigating the effects of climate change. Although future scenarios indicate the possibility of reducing areas suitable for various crops, for specific regions or for Brazil as a whole, it is possible both to develop new knowledge and technologies that allow sustainable production as well as to reduce the environmental impact of Brazilian agriculture. Thus, the objectives of this text are: i) to present briefly a review of the literature and the main results of regional impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture; ii) highlight public policies that can mitigate climate change problems; and iii) discuss how Brazilian agriculture can adapt to the impacts of climate change, mainly through the adoption of new technologies, including management. Productive integration, besides generating economies of scale and scope, can contribute to increase the system's efficiency, increasing production per unit of input. However, it should be emphasized that in order to foster integrated production, it will be needed to invest in the training and education of productive agents. Knowledge is the basis of transformation.
    Keywords: Q01 ; ddc:330 ; agriculture ; productivity ; climate change ; environmental sustainability
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 150
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impacts derived from the recognition of previously unreported fiscal liabilities during 2015 in Brazil. This is done within a DSGE model with a detailed public sector developed and calibrated for the Brazilian economy. The gradual recognition of these fiscal liabilities is interpreted as a series of "news shocks" in response to which private agents may have updated their expectations regarding the sustainability of the public debt and the implementation of fiscal adjustment measures, thus generating potentially significant macroeconomic effects. The paper's main results are: i) the shocks related to the recognition of previously unreported fiscal liabilities may have caused significant output loss and inflationary pressure; ii) a fiscal reaction function based on the reduction of public employment and the increase in income tax rates would have generated smaller macroeconomic costs relative to the rule actually adopted (based on the reduction of public consumption and investment); iii) delaying or downsizing the required fiscal adjustment in the short run would have led to the worsening of fiscal indicators and generated much larger costs in terms of output loss and higher inflation.
    Keywords: E17 ; E37 ; E62 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; DSGE models ; fiscal policy ; fiscal transparency
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 151
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: We investigate the effects of the Profrota Pesqueira Program, created in 2004, on the performance of labor market indicators of municipalities with port fishing terminals. Specifically, we measure the effects on the formal employment and earnings. To do so, we combine employment information from Rais between 2000 and 2015, with data from other sources for obtaining a panel of municipalities. We used Difference in Differences Estimator. The results show that the program did not have positive effects on the indicators evaluated in the fisheries sector. Some of the estimates are robust to analyzes of falsification. Econometric analysis of the effects of the program on the labor market as a whole, with data from the population census, editions 2000 and 2010, reveals that the program seems to have influenced the engagement of workers in paid labor market activities and to reduce labor in own consumption or in the non paid labor market activities.
    Keywords: C21 ; J21 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; Profrota Pesqueira ; impact evaluation ; diference in differences ; labor market
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 152
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This work discusses the economic viability of photovoltaic systems usage in distributed generation of electricity and its possible impacts on electrical network. We present the current situation and perspectives of distributed generation in Brazil. Besides that, we developed a financial analysis of grid-tie photovoltaic systems, considering factors such as local solar radiation and conventional energy cost, using data from the National Agency of Electrical Energy (ANEEL). Overall, the usage of photovoltaic systems in Brazil is economically attractive. Despite this, we have to discuss the impacts on the electrical network that might happen due to energy supply variability and economic losses of electric companies and users. However, we show that there is still a lot of room for development of photovoltaic systems in Brazil, especially within regions with high solar radiation.
    Keywords: Q42 ; Q48 ; ddc:330 ; photovoltaic solar energy ; tariff policy
    Language: Portuguese
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 153
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The purpose of this article is explore the potentialities and challenges faced by the management structure adopted by the Brazil without Poverty Plan (2011-2014) considering theoretical debates over the role of cores of government (CoG) in public policies coordination and monitoring. The expectation is that understanding the limits of state perfomance and the positive outcomes observed in Brazil Without Poverty's management structure could contribute to discuss the sucess possibilities of arrangements directed to reduce poverty in high inequality countries such as Brazil.
    Keywords: H11 ; ddc:330 ; core of government ; public policies ; Brazil without Poverty Plan
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 154
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The design of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) provides for the possibility of integrating state and municipal conditional cash transfers, based on the establishment of terms of cooperation with the Federal Government (or "pacts", as these instruments became known). The work systematizes the history of the PBF state pacts, implemented in the context of the Brasil sem Miséria Plan (BSM) - from 2011 - examining how much the changes in the program design, especially the creation of the Benefício para Superação da Extrema Pobreza (BSP), affected the use of this instrument of federative coordination, highlighting its limits and potentialities as a national strategy for coping with poverty. The advent of the BSP contributed to the decline of the pacts agenda, as it changed the federal government's strategy of financial support to overcome the extreme poverty gap on the part of the states for its resolution by the Union itself: that is, the The Union has, on its own, ensure that extreme poverty is overcome according to the national line defined for the BFP. This decision also equated the lack of effectiveness of the instrument of agreement in the induction of the state governments for that purpose. Regarding the limits of the agreements, it was identified difficulties of states with greater proportion of poverty to make financial contributions more robust; the volatility of political interests and the fluctuation of the theme in the state agenda; the low state capacity to act in a countercyclical manner and the fragility of the legal instrument mobilized to manage the pacts between federative entities. On the other hand, it was also possible to find in the pacts an experimental space for adjustments in the design of the programs, which in turn lead to the improvement of the PBF itself, since it has a unique design for the whole country and should be adapted to the different local realities so that it is better able to reach its objectives.
    Keywords: I38 ; ddc:330 ; Bolsa Família ; Brasil sem Miséria ; conditional cash transfers ; federative coordination
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 155
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: In this work, we will analyze the routines and protocols, as well as the agents and the organizations, that are decisive in the agenda-setting and in the formulation of government policies at the Executive Branch. The analysis is based on two cases: the Ministry of National Integration (MI) and the Ministry of Social Development (MDS). We use documents and data collected in 28 semi-directive interviews with members of top-level positions in each Ministry and in the Presidency of the Republic. We argue that the agenda-setting is divided into two parts: the President's priority agenda and ministers' agenda. However, the policy formulation - including the priority - almost always takes place at the ministerial level. The bureaucracy of experts is indispensable to formulate any policy but acts through political delegation, not by their own. Ministers play a pivotal role in setting the agenda, but the ideological intra-coalition conflict - manifested by parties with heterogeneous preferences - is no obstacle to the President, who can push ahead with the agenda of his interest.
    Keywords: H1 ; H19 ; ddc:330 ; federal Executive Branch ; Presidency of the Republic ; coalitional presidentialism ; public policy ; government process in Brazil
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 156
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper provides a survey of the methodologies for estimating the structural budget balance and the fiscal impulse, which highlights the recent international literature spread by European Commission studies (Havik et al., 2014; Carnot e Castro, 2015). From this theoretical background, the paper presents new estimates for the output gap and tax elasticities, as well as an analysis of the determinants that lie behind Brazilian fiscal deterioration - estimated at 3.3 percentage points of the GDP during 2008-2016 according to the below the line method (or 4.2 percentage points above the line). The paper also offers an original contribution by measuring how potential GDP's measurement errors (or their growth rates changes) influence the stability of the benchmark used by the conventional methodology in order to estimate the fiscal impulse. This, in turn, puts a question mark over the robustness of the main model used nowadays to assess the stance of fiscal policy.
    Keywords: E30 ; E62 ; H60 ; ddc:330 ; structural budget balance ; fiscal impulse ; business cycle
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 157
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This discussion paper analyzes the impacts of Pronaf on agriculture and livestock for the 26 Federative Units and the Federal District of Brazil in the period between 2007 and 2016. The Panel Auto Regressive Vector method was used to measure the effects of credit shocks offered by Pronaf, through the quantity and value added of the agriculture and livestock contracts, over the planted area; gross value of agricultural and livestock production and land productivity. By means of information from the Central Bank (BCB) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the results indicate that the impulse response of the planted area, the production value and the productivity of the land, to a credit shock generated a positive response over a period until they changed direction and converged to zero after the sixth period. However, there are conflicting results when the shock occurs in the number of Pronaf contracts for agriculture. It is concluded that Pronaf imposes selection bias and does not encourage the farmer to diversify his production, thus, promoting development and reducing rural poverty will be compromised and therefore needs to be restructured.
    Keywords: J30 ; J38 ; Q19 ; ddc:330 ; rural credit ; farming ; VAR in panel
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 158
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The share of the income inequality explained by the 10% richest members of the Brazilian population is higher than 50%. This percentage is higher in Brazil than what is found for the United States (45%), Germany (44%) and Great Britain (41%). Inequality was measured using an index which is still not much used in the socioeconomic literature, the J-divergence. It can be defined as the sum of Theil's T and L indices, but unlike these and the Gini index, the J-divergence of a population and its corresponding sample estimates can be easily decomposed as the sum of the individual contributions to the total inequality. Publicly available microdata on equivalised and per capita household total monthly income from the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD) were used to estimate the J-divergence for each year from 1981 to 2015, and the corresponding shares of the inequality explained by each twentieth of the income distribution. In the period 2001-2014 of reduction of inequality in PNAD, the central group of the distribution reduces its share in J-divergence.
    Keywords: D31 ; D63 ; ddc:330 ; income inequality ; decomposition ; household sample survey
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 159
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Based on the principles of universality and equality and the guideline of integrality, the Brazilian Public Healthcare System, called Unified Health System (SUS), was constituted as a regionalized and hierarchical services network. There is the recognizing of interdependence between municipalities and between levels of government to guarantee the provision of services. The Union and the states share with the municipalities the responsibility for guaranteeing the constitutional right of access to health goods and services in the country, increasing the requirement for actions cooperation and coordination between the three levels of government. To respond to these questions, intergovernmental relations have undergone progressive transformations since the creation of the system. Recently, in a context of reducing federal social spending, the demand for lesser Union regulation has increased, with changes in federal funds allocation. In the light of the institutional trajectory of the last three decades, as well as the literature on decentralization in health and federalism and social policies, the text has the aim of analyzing the change occurred in 2017 in the form of federal transfers in the SUS. Considering these contributions, the study stresses that the results of decentralization may be negative for efficiency in management and for equity in access to health services. It also emphasizes the relevance of coordination arrangements and mechanisms to improve the health policy outcome and effectiveness in system management. Analyzing the worsening of the financing of the SUS, with a probable reduction of the participation of the Union in the allocation of health resources due to the freezing of its minimum application by EC 95, the study points to the risk of transferring greater responsibilities to states and municipalities, already undermined by underfunding in the health area. Consequently, this changing can cause a reduction in the coordination capacity of the system, a loss of effectiveness, an increase in competition and fragmentation, and an increase in the inequality of access to health goods and services in the country.
    Keywords: H51 ; H77 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; health expenditure ; public health ; decentralization ; federalism ; intergovernmental relations ; healthcare financing
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 160
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper aims to investigate structural transformations in Brazilian regional disparities. It puts focus on concentration/deconcentration movements presented in the industrial activities. It examines reasons why industrial sector has been moving from the state of São Paulo to other regions in Brazil, particularly, to the South. Special results were shown and they say that deconcentration continues to occur in the 1996-2015 period. However, the most prominent industrial activities related to higher aggregate values and productivity levels remain located in high-developed areas.
    Keywords: O14 ; O33 ; R11 ; R12 ; ddc:330 ; industrial restructuring ; regional development ; deindustrialization
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 161
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This article uses recently released data from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua), Brazilian household survey to calculate changes in inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient from 2016 to 2017. A Shorrocks decomposition by factor components is also undertaken, as well as a limited analysis of the wage inequality and the labor market contribution to household inequality. The main results are: i) the Gini coefficient fell 0.18 point from 2016 to 2017, going from 54.1 to 53.8, which is a very small reduction in inequality; ii) this reduction is due to the interplay between labor and social protection incomes; and iii) the labor market by itself is playing against reductions in inequality, which shows the relevance of the (still limited and not very progressive) Brazilian social protection system.
    Keywords: D31 ; D33 ; ddc:330 ; inequality in Brazil ; Gini coefficient ; Shorrocks decomposition ; concentration coefficient
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 162
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This work focuses on two very particular elements: the technical standard and standardization that permeate the three determinants of the great changes in the international scenario in the last decades: the impact of new technologies on the commercial economic environment, the proliferation of preferential agreements between countries and the emergence of China as a major commercial economic power. Seen from this perspective, the global scenario for the brazilian insertion presents changes that mean transition to new paradigm and new challenges.
    Keywords: F02 ; ddc:330 ; technical standard ; standardization ; preferential agreements ; innovation ; China ; economic development
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 163
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: This paper presents a tax reform proposal on consumption in Brazil. The basic idea is to add several taxes in a single Value Added Tax (VAT). Unlike the other proposals, which suggest a strategy automatically encompassing all federated entities, our study suggests a dual and modular reform based on the Canadian model. The main advantage of this strategy lies on its implementation because the approval in the National Congress initially does not require greater institutional arrangements but only changes in infraconstitutional laws. Moreover, contrary to the mandatory nature of the others proposals, our model implies a voluntary adhesion of the federated entities. This factor, besides facilitating the approval of the proposal, respects the federative principle of our country.
    Keywords: K34 ; H20 ; H25 ; ddc:330 ; tax reform ; taxes on consumption ; VAT
    Language: Portuguese
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  • 164
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    Brasília: Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: Policies aiming to increase participation of small business in government procurement are instruments used in several countries of the world and involve the allocation of resources equivalent to almost 18% of Gross World Product (GWP). However, few studies have verified how effective are the various procurement policy instruments in achieving goals such as growth of small firms and employment. This article studies these policies with the purpose of identifying good practices to support small businesses in public procurement programs. To achieve this objective, we use theoretical and empirical contributions on the potential effects resulting from the inclusion mechanisms of small companies in government procurement. The analysis of this literature suggests that giving preference to small businesses in government procurement does not penalize efficiency and has the potential to raise the growth rates of small firms. The recurring problem of liquidity constraint among small firms is mitigated by such policies and the division of contracts into smaller lots increases participation. Giving greater transparency to public procurement processes is essential to encourage small businesses to participate in public procurement auctions. In order to strengthen the role of smaller companies in economic growth, this work recommends that government procurement policies also stimulate innovation.