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  • 101
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    London: Taylor and Francis | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: We introduce progressive consumption taxation into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of of progressive taxation of consumption expenditures for the stabilization of cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. We find the quantitative effect of such a tax to be very small, and thus not important for either business cycle stabilization, or public finance issues.
    Keywords: E24 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; business cycles ; progressive consumption taxation ; Bulgaria
    Language: English
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  • 102
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    Freiburg i. Br.: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Allgemeine Wirtschaftsforschung, Abteilung für Wirtschaftspolitik und Ordnungsökonomik
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: [Einleitende Bemerkungen] Eine Reform der Grundsteuer ist unabweisbar geworden. Dies ist nicht dem politischen Willen von Bund oder Ländern geschuldet, sondern geht auf das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts vom 10. April 2018 zurück, wonach die Einheitsbewertung zur Ermittlung der Bemessungsgrundlage der Grundsteuer jedenfalls seit dem 1. Januar 2002 unvereinbar mit Art. 3 Abs. 1 Grundgesetz und somit verfassungswidrig ist. Diese Entscheidung war spätestens seit dem Jahr 2010 absehbar, als der Bundesfinanzhof feststellte, dass „[…] das weitere Unterbleiben einer allgemeinen Neubewertung des Grundvermögens […]“ für Stichtage nach dem 1.1.2007 mit der Verfassung nicht vereinbar ist (Pressemitteilung BFH vom 11. August 2010). Der Wissenschaftliche Beirat beim Bundesfinanzministerium legte im Dezember 2010 eine Stellungnahme zur Grundsteuerreform vor, die Möglichkeiten zu einer Neubewertung der Immobilien in Deutschland mit einigermaßen vertretbarem administrativem Aufwand aufzeigte. Gleichwohl haben Bund und Länder die vergangenen acht Jahre nicht für eine Reform nutzen können. Insbesondere unter den Ländern bestand keine Einigkeit, ob ein wertbasiertes Modell oder ein reines Flächenmodell zur Ermittlung der Bemessungsgrundlage der Grundsteuer herangezogen werden sollte. Diese Frontstellung besteht zwischen den beiden Lagern fort. Nur bleibt nun leider wenig Zeit, eine Reform der Grundsteuer auf den Weg zu bringen. Bis zum Ende des Jahres 2019 muss der Gesetzgeber die Grundsteuer reformiert haben und ein neues Bewertungsgesetz verabschiedet haben. Danach hat der Gesetzgeber fünf Jahre Zeit, also bis zum 31. Dezember 2024, die neuen Bewertungsregeln anzuwenden. Diese Frist ist für eine Bewertung aller Immobilien in Deutschland relativ kurz. Das Bundesfinanzministerium hat mittlerweile seine Vorschläge für eine Grundsteuerreform unterbreitet. Darin sind zwei Modelle enthalten, ein wertunabhängiges, flächenbasiertes Modell und ein wertabhängiges Modell, in das Boden- und Gebäudewertcharakteristika einfließen. Das Bundesfinanzministerium favorisiert sein wertabhängiges Grundsteuermodell. Vor diesem Hintergrund, und weil die Zeit drängt, spitzt sich die Debatte derzeit weiter zu. In diesem Beitrag soll daher das Für und Wider der unterschiedlichen Modelle beleuchtet werden. Zudem werden Weiterungen der Reform, insbesondere die Möglichkeit der formalen Überwälzung der Grundsteuer auf den Mieter diskutiert.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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  • 103
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    Leiden: Brill | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: Recognizing that identities are not static but instead forged in social interactions, this article explores how interplays of similarity and difference can stimulate identity development in organizations. Artistic interventions in organizations are conceived as opening spaces for interactions in which intercultural contention can stimulate identity development at the individual and organizational levels. The contribution draws on data generated from Webbased surveys of employees, managers, and artists who participated in artistic interventions in small and medium sized companies in Spain. Several tensions between their culturally distinct worlds emerge as drivers of a process in which the participants engage in identity development characterized by double-mirroring, coevolution, and resonance.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; artistic interventions ; identity development ; intercultural interactions ; creative processes ; discursive perspective ; lexical analysis
    Language: English
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  • 104
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    Cham: Springer Open
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book looks at how a democracy can devolve into a post-factual state. The media is being flooded by populist narratives, fake news, conspiracy theories and make-believe. Misinformation is turning into a challenge for all of us, whether politicians, journalists, or citizens. In the age of information, attention is a prime asset and may be converted into money, power, and influence - sometimes at the cost of facts. The point is to obtain exposure on the air and in print media, and to generate traffic on social media platforms. With information in abundance and attention scarce, the competition is ever fiercer with truth all too often becoming the first victim. Reality Lost: Markets of Attention, Misinformation and Manipulation is an analysis by philosophers Vincent F. Hendricks and Mads Vestergaard of the nuts and bolts of the information market, the attention economy and media eco-system which may pave way to postfactual democracy. Here misleading narratives become the basis for political opinion formation, debate, and legislation. To curb this development and the threat it poses to democratic deliberation, political self-determination and freedom, it is necessary that we first grasp the mechanisms and structural conditions that cause it.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 105
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    Cham: Palgrave Macmillan
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book discusses how Norwegian shipping companies played a crucial role in global shipping markets in the 20th century, at times transporting more than ten per cent of world seaborne trade. Chapters explore how Norway managed to remain competitive, despite being a high labour-cost country in an industry with global competition. Among the features that are emphasised are market developments, business strategies and political decisions The Norwegian experience was shaped by the main breaking points in 20th century world history, such as the two world wars, and by long-term trends, such as globalization and liberalization. The shipping companies introduced technological and organizational innovations to build or maintain a competitive advantage in a rapidly changing world. The growing importance of offshore petroleum exploration in the North Sea from the 1970s was both a threat and an opportunity to the shipping companies. By adapting both business strategies and the political regime to the new circumstances, the Norwegian shipping sector managed to maintain a leading position internationally.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 106
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    Cham: Springer Open
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book brings together works by specialists from different disciplines and continents to reflect on the nexus between leadership, spirituality and discernment, particularly with regard to a world that is increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA). The book spells out, first of all, what our VUCA world entails, and how it affects businesses, organizations, and societies as a whole. Secondly, the book develops new perspectives on the processes of leadership, spirituality, and discernment, particularly in this VUCA context. These perspectives are interdisciplinary in nature, and are informed by e.g. management studies, leadership theory, philosophy, and theology.
    Keywords: ddc:650 ; Spirituality and leadership ; Spirituality in the workplace ; Discernment in organizations ; VUCA and leadership strategies ; Interdisciplinary approaches to leadership ; Corporate social responsibility and spirituality
    Language: English
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  • 107
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: Innovation is considered as a main driver of economic growth. Promoting the development of innovation through STI (science, technology and innovation) policies requires accurate indicators of innovation. Traditional indicators often lack coverage, granularity as well as timeliness and involve high data collection costs, especially when conducted at a large scale. In this paper, we propose a novel approach on how to create firm-level innovation indicators at the scale of millions of firms. We use traditional firm-level innovation indicators from the questionnaire-based Community Innovation Survey (CIS) survey to train an artificial neural network classification model on labelled (innovative/non-innovative) web texts of surveyed firms. Subsequently, we apply this classification model to the web texts of hundreds of thousands of firms in Germany to predict their innovation status. Our results show that this approach produces credible predictions and has the potential to be a valuable and highly cost-efficient addition to the existing set of innovation indicators, especially due to its coverage and regional granularity. The predicted firm-level probabilities can also directly be interpreted as a continuous measure of innovativeness, opening up additional advantages over traditional binary innovation indicators.
    Keywords: O30 ; C81 ; C83 ; ddc:330 ; Web Mining ; Web Scraping ; R&D ; R&I ; STI ; Innovation ; Indicators ; Text Mining ; Natural Language Processing ; NLP ; Deep Learning
    Language: English
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  • 108
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: The proportion of women on executive boards of the 100 largest banks stagnated at almost nine percent in 2018. In the 60 largest insurance companies, the proportion increased by a good percentage point to almost ten percent. While growth on executive boards has been weakening in past years, it is now slowing down on supervisory boards in the financial sector as well. In 2018, the proportion of women on financial sector supervisory boards remained at around 23 percent. If the current linear development were to continue, it would now take longer-almost until the beginning of the next century- for the top bodies to be composed of equal numbers of men and women. Compared to men, women in the financial sector are less likely to be promoted to senior management positions than in any other sector. This is due to, among other things, particularly inflexible working structures for managers, which ensure that women are hardly represented in middle management although they make up the majority of employees.
    Keywords: G2 ; J16 ; J78 ; L32 ; M14 ; M51 ; ddc:330 ; board composition ; board diversity ; boards of directors ; central banks ; corporate boards ; Europe ; finance industry ; financial sector ; female directors ; Gender gap ; gender equality ; gender quota ; Germany ; insurance companies ; management ; public and private banks ; supervisory boards ; women CEOs
    Language: English
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  • 109
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: The gender quota for supervisory boards is continuing to show its impact: the proportion of women on the supervisory boards of the 200 highest-performing companies in Germany increased by over two percentage points to 27 percent the past year. In the 100 largest companies, it increased by over three percentage points to 28 percent. However, there are now indications that the companies are only doing the bare minimum, as the proportion of women in the group of the 30 largest DAX companies-many of which have already reached the minimum of 30 percent women-has stagnated at one-third. Additionally, it is becoming more and more apparent that the gender quota does not have the impact hoped for on executive boards, at least not in the short term. Even though the ten percent mark was reached for the first time in the top 100 companies, most development is still taking place at a snail's pace. It is still up to companies to stymie demands for binding board member quotas. To do this, however, they must act as quickly as possible and consistently fill all hierarchical levels, especially beneath the board, with more women in order to increase the pool of potential female board members.
    Keywords: D22 ; J16 ; J59 ; J78 ; L32 ; M14 ; M51 ; ddc:330 ; corporate boards ; board composition ; boards of directors ; board diversity ; Europe ; women directors ; gender equality ; gender quota ; Germany ; management ; private companies ; public companies ; supervisory boards ; executive boards ; CEOs ; women
    Language: English
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  • 110
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: Theoretically, bank's loan monitoring activity hinges critically on its capitalisation. To proxy for monitoring intensity, we use changes in borrowers' investment following loan covenant violations, when creditors can intervene in the governance of the firm. Exploiting granular bank-firm relationships observed in the syndicated loan market, we document substantial heterogeneity in monitoring across banks and through time. Better capitalised banks are more lenient monitors that intervene less with covenant violators. Importantly, this hands-off approach is associated with improved borrowers' performance. Beyond enhancing financial resilience, regulation that requires banks to hold more capital may thus also mitigate the tightening of credit terms when firms experience shocks.
    Keywords: G21 ; G32 ; G33 ; G34 ; ddc:330 ; bank monitoring ; covenant violations ; syndicated loans ; business cycle
    Language: English
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  • 111
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: This article examines how trade shocks shape labour market imperfections that create market power in labour markets and prevent an efficient allocation of labour. I develop a framework for measuring such labor market distortions in monetary terms and document large degrees of those distortions in Germany's manufacturing sector. Import competition can only exert labor market disciplining effects when firms rather than workers have labour market power. Otherwise, export demand and import competition shocks tend to fortify existing distortions by amplifying labour market power structures. This diminishes the gains from trade compared to a model with perfectly competitive labour markets.
    Keywords: D24 ; F14 ; F16 ; J50 ; L13 ; L60 ; ddc:330 ; international trade ; market power ; labor markets ; allocative efficiency
    Language: English
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  • 112
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Im vergangenen Jahr verhinderte die Bundesregierung zwei Transaktionen chinesischer Investoren und verschärfte nach 2017 im zweiten Jahr in Folge die Außenwirtschaftsverordnung. Dennoch waren Investoren aus China weiterhin sehr aktiv.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 113
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Ausschlaggebend für den starken Anstieg der Kinderzahlen waren eine steigende Zahl an potenziellen Müttern, mehr Geburten je potenzieller Mütter und eine substanzielle Zuwanderung von Kindern. Dadurch werden in den nächsten Jahren zusätzliche Kapazitäten in den Kitas und Grundschulen notwendig, auch wenn sich die Entwicklungen nicht fortsetzen sollten.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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  • 114
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Das Urheberrecht soll allgemein einen Anreiz zur Schöpfung von Werken der Literatur, Kunst und Wissenschaft schaffen. Was aber, wenn der Künstler oder Autor eine Maschine ist? Im Zeitalter der Künstlichen Intelligenz (KI) schon lange keine Utopie mehr. Aus ökonomischer Sicht gibt es gute Gründe, warum keine Maschine Urheber sein kann und sollte. Nichtsdestotrotz stellt sich die Frage, ob es im KI-Kontext Handlungsbedarf in Form eines digitalen Updates des Urheberrechts oder ergänzender Rechtsnormen gibt.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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  • 115
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: This review summarizes the empirical literature on the effects of natural disasters and weather variations on international trade flows. A first result is that the body of literature is actually not as small as previously suggested. In total, I summarize 19 studies of 18 independent research teams and show that there is a large diversity in terms of motivations, data sets used, methodologies, and results. Still, some overarching conclusions can be drawn. Increases in average temperature seem to have a detrimental effect on export values (less on imports), mainly for manufactured and agricultural products. Given climate change, this is an important finding for projecting long-term developments of trade volumes. Imports seem to be less affected by temperature changes in the importing country. Findings on the effects of natural disasters are more ambiguous, but at least it can be said that exports seem to be affected negatively by occurrence and severity of disasters in the exporting country. Imports may decrease, increase, or remain unaffected by natural disasters. Regarding heterogeneous effects, small, poor, and hot countries with low degrees of institutional quality and political freedom seem to face the most detrimental effects on their trade flows. Possible directions of future research include analyzing spillover effects in-depth (in terms of time, space, and trade networks), considering adaptation, and using more granular data.
    Keywords: Q17 ; Q54 ; Q56 ; F14 ; F18 ; ddc:330 ; International Trade ; Climate Change ; Natural Disasters
    Language: English
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  • 116
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    Freiburg: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Wilfried-Guth-Stiftungsprofessur für Ordnungs- und Wettbewerbspolitik
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: In recent years, a number of major terrorist attacks in EU member states has put the fight against homegrown and international terrorism at the top of the agenda of European policy-makers. This paper analyzes the costs of terrorism in the European Union from both a theoretical and empirical perspective in order to evaluate counter-terrorism policies by comparing their costs and benefits. Two important policy implications can be derived from our exercise. First, individuals' behavioral predispositions typically result in a biased perception of the risk of terrorism leading to too high a demand for counter-terrorism measures relative to what the objective probability of terrorist events suggests. This results in a tendency to favor repressive over preventive measures against terrorism. Second, uncoordinated European policies against terrorism have the potential to undermine the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. If there is a justification for the existence of the European Union (which an increasing number of populist parties in Europe seems to doubt), then it is to provide supranational answers to coordination failure in European counter-terrorism policies.
    Keywords: D74 ; H56 ; N44 ; ddc:330 ; terrorism ; home-grown terrorism ; European Union ; counter-terrorism policies ; coordination failure ; behavioral responses to terrorism
    Language: English
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  • 117
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    Hannover: Verlag der ARL - Akademie für Raumforschung und Landesplanung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: For four years, a group of experts from public administration, academia and practice has collaborated to highlight the important aspects of corridor development, to provide a first integrated assessment for the entire corridor system and to prepare a draft of an integrated strategy. Of course, this is just a beginning and should be followed up by additional initiatives to produce an organisational framework that will allow intensified collaboration on the corridors, which are so important for the cohesion of Europe. Moreover, we hope that our insights will also stimulate the development of the OEM Corridor and similar investigations into other European corridors. Due to the international nature of the project topic, the working group comprises prominent experts of spatial development and infrastructural engineering from both academia and from planning practice, and from various countries along the corridor [...].
    Keywords: ddc:710
    Language: English
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  • 118
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: In the shadow of homeownership and public housing, social policy through the regulation of private rental markets is a neglected and underestimated field of social policy. This paper, therefore, presents unique new data on the development of private tenancy legislation through the binary coding of rent control, the protection of tenants from eviction, and rental housing rationing laws across more than 25 countries and 100 years. This long-run perspective reveals the dynamic effects of rent control on the rise of homeownership as the dominant tenure during the 20th century. We find that both rent regulation and rationing legislation effectively increased homeownership, but only up to a certain threshold. We suggest that the short-term lure of an inexpensive social policy for tenants has led to the long-term marginalization of rental markets in many countries.
    Keywords: C23 ; O18 ; R38 ; ddc:330 ; homeownership ; rent control ; tenure security ; housing rationing ; dynamic panel data model
    Language: English
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  • 119
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: With Germany's nuclear phase-out, 23 reactors need to be dismantled in the near future. Initiated by the dire financial situation of the affected utilities in 2014, a major discourse on ensuring financial liability led to a redistribution of liabilities and finances, with the utilities remaining in charge of dismantling, while liability for interim and final storage now transferred to the public. This paper assesses whether the new regulation will ultimately be to the benefit of the public. It introduces a two-stage stochastic optimization framework which encompasses the different dismantling phases and resulting waste flows and storage levels of low- and intermediate-level waste (LLW and ILW) as well as the associated costs. Results show that storage risk - proclaimed as a major barrier to efficient decommissioning - is not a major driver for the optimal decommissioning schedule. However, a delay of ten years might now increase interim storage costs borne by the public by over 20%. By contrast, lacking knowledge and limited machinery is a major unaccounted cost driver, which might quickly eat-up the buffer currently included in utility funds in order to deal with dismantling uncertainties. Our analysis reveals the storage gate as the new crucial interface between utilities and the public storage provider.
    Keywords: C61 ; H44 ; L51 ; ddc:330 ; nuclear decommissioning ; nuclear dismantling ; financial liability ; nuclear logistics ; stochastic modeling ; regulation
    Language: English
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  • 120
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-01
    Description: We show that local banks provide corporate recovery lending to firms affected by adverse regional macro shocks. Banks that reside in counties unaffected by the natural disaster that we specify as macro shock increase lending to firms inside affected counties by 3%. Firms domiciled in flooded counties, in turn, increase corporate borrowing by 16% if they are connected to banks in unaffected counties. We find no indication that recovery lending entails excessive risk-taking or rent-seeking. However, within the group of shock-exposed banks, those without access to geographically more diversified interbank markets exhibit more credit risk and less equity capital.
    Description: First Draft: November 24, 2016. This Draft: January 29, 2019
    Keywords: G21 ; G29 ; O16 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; disaster risk ; credit demand ; natural disaster ; relationship lenders
    Language: English
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  • 121
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: The reflections which follow build on two interrelated questions, namely, first, whether we are witnessing another “industrial revolution”, and second, what is the impact of technological transformations upon the current dynamics of the socio-economic fabric, especially with respect to employment, income distribution, working conditions and labour relations. We argue that the processes of innovation and diffusion of what we could call “intelligent automation” are likely to change, or more likely reinforce, the patterns of distribution of income and power, which have been there well before the arrival of the technologies we are concerned about: some are indeed intrinsic features of capitalism since its inception, while others are features of the last thirtyforty years. First, we shall offer a fresco of such tendencies which certainly preceded any potential “Fourth Industrial Revolution” but are going to be amplified by the latter. Second, we discuss the features of such possible new techno-economic paradigms. Third, we examine the relationships between technology, productivity and growth, and the ensuing impact on jobs, division of labour, distribution of knowledge, power, and control. Finally, we address some policy implications.
    Keywords: O10 ; E6 ; D63 ; F6 ; ddc:330 ; Social fabric ; technology ; macroeconomic development ; division of labour ; knowledge ; inequality
    Language: English
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  • 122
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: Union density in Mexico has been in decline since the 1980s. This paper provides ev- idence on the worker compensation gains (losses) made by males upon joining (leaving) a union. These are estimated using a nationally representative labour market survey covering 2005q1-2016q1. The transitions between non-union and union status are investigated using a difference-in-difference estimator. The findings suggest that joining a union is associated with modest wage gains, contrary to what the literature has shown for most industrialised nations. However, in contrast to this some union leavers are found to experience a decrease in wages. This paper also contributes to the wider literature by providing the first estimates of the longitudinal gain (loss) associated with joining (leaving) a union with respect to non-wage benefits. The findings show joining (leaving) a union increases (decreases) the probability of being in receipt of legally guaranteed benefits such as bonuses and paid holidays. This sug- gests that although union density may be in decline, unions still have an important role to play in voicing worker's preferences with respect to compensation and ensuring that employers comply with the law.
    Keywords: J31 ; J33 ; J51 ; ddc:330 ; unions ; wages ; Mexico ; non-wage benefits
    Language: English
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  • 123
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    Cologne: University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: Firms’ competitive advantages are unsustainable when competitors poach their employees away to study and recreate those advantages. We document inter-firm knowledge spillovers through labor mobility in the mutual fund industry. About one quarter of the competitive advantage of the originating fund family spills over to the recipient family. These knowledge spillovers intensify when switching managers had better access to the organization processes of the originating family and frictions hampering knowledge absorption are weaker. Ease of knowledge integration, greater organizational similarity, and lower information barriers at the recipient family—acting as mitigants for the aforementioned frictions—also magnify these knowledge spillovers.
    Description: January 31, 2019
    Keywords: D86 ; G23 ; K12 ; K31 ; M5 ; ddc:330 ; organization capital ; knowledge spillovers ; mutual funds ; learning-by-hiring
    Language: English
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  • 124
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    Berlin: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: Confidence is often seen as the key to success. Empirical evidence about how such beliefs about one’s abilities causally map into actions is, however, sparse. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the causal effect of an increase in confi-dence about one’s own ability on two central choices made by workers in the la-bor market: choosing between jobs with different incentive schemes, and the sub-sequent choice of how much effort to exert within the job. An exogenous increase in confidence leads to an increase in subjects’ propensity to choose payment schemes that depend heavily on ability. This is detrimental for low ability workers. Policy implications are discussed.
    Description: January 2018 (revised January 2019)
    Keywords: C91 ; D03 ; M50 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; overconfidence ; experiment ; beliefs ; real-effort ; grade inflation
    Language: English
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  • 125
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: House-purchasing decisions and the possibility of existing homeowners to tap into their housing equity depend decisively on prevailing loan-to-value (LTV) ratios in mortgage markets with borrowing constrained households. Utilizing a smooth transition local projection (STLP) approach, I show that monetary policy shocks in the U.S. evoke stronger reactions in the housing sector in times of high LTV ratios, which, through changes in mortgage lending and mortgage equity withdrawals (MEWs), translate into larger effects of consumption. This result is more pronounced for contractionary shocks, in line with occasionally binding constraints. The strong procyclicality of LTV ratios reconciles these findings with past evidence on a less powerful transmission of monetary policy during recessions.
    Keywords: E21 ; E52 ; G21 ; R31 ; ddc:330 ; monetary policy ; LTV ratio ; mortgage equity withdrawals ; collateral constraints ; local projections ; non-linear impulse responses
    Language: English
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: While there seems to be a well-established consensus about the underlying causes to the Greek crisis, less is known about internal and external transmission mechanisms that ultimately caused unemployment to increase rapidly over this period. Motivated by the structural slumps theory in Phelps (Structural slumps, 1994), the paper attempts, therefore, to uncover the dynamic mechanisms behind prices, interest rates, and external imbalances that contributed to the severity and the length of the crisis. The authors find that the strongly increasing real bond rate and unemployment rate together with an persistently appreciating real exchange rate and a deterioration of competitiveness in the eurozone have contributed to persistently growing structural imbalances in the Greek economy. As the lack of confidence in the Greek economy grew steadily, the scene was set for a monumental structural slump. Over the crisis period, all variables exhibited self-reinforcing feedback adjustment somewhere in the system except for inflation rate. Unemployment took the burden of adjustment when the bond rate sky rocketed, competitiveness deteriorated, and confidence fell.
    Keywords: C32 ; E24 ; E31 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Greek crisis ; unemployment ; CVAR analysis ; structural slumps ; nonconstant natural rate ; self-reinforcing adjustment
    Language: English
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  • 127
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: We use a New Keynesian DSGE model with a rental housing market to evaluate how financing a labor tax wedge reduction through higher property taxation affects the real economy and welfare. We find that a labor tax wedge reduction generates favorable macroeconomic effects and improves international competitiveness, independent of the financing instrument used. Even though it negatively affects the housing market, property acquisition taxation outperforms all other instruments as the financing instrument in terms of welfare. This finding is the result of allowing households to decide whether to buy or to rent housing services and of the fact that, in this situation, they shift from purchasing to renting more housing services. Abandoning tax credit on mortgage interest payments effectively harms borrowers.
    Keywords: E51 ; E6 ; R31 ; K34 ; ddc:330 ; Housing and Rental Markets ; Property Taxation ; Labor Tax Wedge ; General Equilibrium
    Language: English
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  • 128
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    Frankfurt a. M.: Deutsche Bundesbank
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: We estimate the "unhedged interest rate exposure" (URE) of euro area households. The URE is a welfare metric that captures the extent to which households are exposed to changes in real interest rates, and reflects the direct gains and losses in interest income flows incurred by households after such a change. It is defined as the difference between maturing assets and maturing liabilities at a given point in time (Auclert 2019). We examine the distribution of the UREs along the net wealth, income, age and housing status distributions for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries, and document substantial heterogeneity across these dimensions. The median household in the euro area has a positive interest rate exposure, indicating that it would gain, in the first instance, from an increase in the interest rate, all other things remaining constant. Households in the lower end of the net wealth and income distribution, younger households and mortgagors, have negative interest rate exposure and would lose from an increase in interest rates. The heterogeneity across countries is largely attributed to the differences in the prevalence of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). Countries with a high prevalence of ARMs have interest rate exposure distributions skewed to the left, with negative mean interest rate exposure. Interest gains/losses after a monetary policy shock can be substantial for households with negative interest rate exposure, particularly for mortgagors, and of a similar (absolute) magnitude to capital gains/losses from associated changes in house prices. Besides the direct distributional consequences and the implications for monetary policy, the distribution of the interest rate exposures may help explain the general public's views with the respect to the prevailing monetary policy regime or the central bank.
    Keywords: D31 ; E21 ; E52 ; E58 ; ddc:330 ; interest rate exposure ; URE ; monetary policy ; distributional effects ; adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) ; Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS)
    Language: English
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  • 129
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    Bremen: Institut Arbeit und Wirtschaft (IAW), Universität Bremen und Arbeitnehmerkammer Bremen
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: Zentrale Voraussetzung für die Integration der Geflüchteten, die mittel- und längerfristig in Deutschland bleiben werden, ist eine erfolgreiche Integration in Arbeit. Vor diesem Hintergrund wurde im Rahmen eines von der Arbeitnehmerkammer Bremen geförderten Forschungsprojekts der Übergang von Geflüchteten in Beschäftigung bzw. Arbeitslosigkeit im Land Bremen vergleichend analysiert. Diese quantitativen Ergebnisse wurden mit einem qualitativen Forschungsansatz ergänzt. Die Befunde zeigen, dass zwar bisher die Arbeitsmarktintegrationsquoten Geflüchteter über den Werten vorangegangener Kohorten liegen, dennoch aber die Integration von Geflüchteten in den Arbeitsmarkt noch einen längeren Zeitraum in Anspruch nehmen wird. Strukturelle Herausforderungen bestehen dabei v. a. hinsichtlich der Anerkennung ausländischer Qualifikationen, der Qualität und Koordination der Integrationskurse, der Schließung von Förderlücken, des Angebots stärker individualisierter Maßnahmen, der projekthaften Unterstützung des Berufseinstiegs sowie der Möglichkeiten zur Nachqualifizierung. Erschwerend wirkt sich zudem die aktuelle Verteilung von Geflüchteten aus, da Mittel- und Großstädte mit überdurchschnittlicher Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit im Mittel mehr Geflüchtete integrieren müssen als Großstädte mit niedrigerer Arbeitslosigkeit.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 130
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    Luxembourg: European Investment Bank (EIB)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-07
    Description: The purpose of this working paper is to provide a primer on financial technology and on Blockchain, while shading light on the impact they may have on the financial industry. FinTechs, the financial technology and innovation that competes with traditional financial methods in the delivery of financial services, has the potential to improve the reach of financial services to the broader public and facilitate the creation of a credit record, especially in the developing world. Some Blockchain applications like cryptocurrencies, could be problematic as cryptocurrencies cannot substitute traditional money due to the high risk of debasement, luck of trust and high inefficiencies relating to the high cost in electricity and human effort required to clear cryptocurrency transactions. Cryptocurrencies' high volatility renders it a poor means of payment and store of value, while resembling a fraudulent investment operation. Yet, other Blockchain applications, like Blockchain securities, could facilitate the functioning of an International Financial Institutions (IFI) due to the volume of securities they issue as Blockchain securities enable an almost instantaneous trade confirmation, affirmation, allocation and settlement and reconciliations are superfluous releasing collateral to be used for other purposes in the market. IFIs could promote awareness and understanding about Blockchain technology among different IFI services and launch Blockchain labs in order to pilot projects that can improve governance and social outcomes in the developing world. Financial inclusion, at the core of IFI's mandate, could be enhanced by investing into FinTechs who facilitate access to payment systems. IFIs could also ponder the development of Blockchain software aimed at improving transparency and efficiency in public resources that finance development projects. IFIs could promote Blockchain applications in several sectors like agricultural lending where Blockchain technology is used in the supply chain in order to improve transparency and efficiency in agricultural and commodity production. Other sectors include transport and logistics and even energy distribution. IFIs could benefit by utilizing FinTechs' knowhow in the analysis of big data in order to understand better the investment gaps and the financing needs of prospective clients. Finally, FinTechs' knowhow could be used by IFIs in order to streamline their internal processes concerning credit underwriting and risk management.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: [Einleitung und Lernziele] Die Faktormobilität ist eine bestimmende Kraft des Strukturwandels in allen Wirtschaftsbereichen. In der Landwirtschaft spielt der immobile Faktor Boden eine besondere Rolle. Vergleichbare Konstellationen gibt es nur in einigen anderen Sektoren, die z. B. von seltenen Bodenschätzen oder Fanggebieten abhängig sind. Da der Boden im Raum verteilt ist, kommt eine Betrachtung des Bodenmarkts als Punktmarkt nicht in Frage: Wir müssen uns daher im folgenden Kapitel zunächst mit Aspekten der räumlichen Preisbildung auseinandersetzen. Landwirtschaftliche Betriebe können Boden pachten und /oder kaufen. Die Entscheidung, Flächen zu pachten, wird in der Regel aufgrund von kurz- bis mittelfristigen Überlegungen getroffen. Der Flächenkauf hingegen beruht im Normalfall auf langfristigen Überlegungen. Die Kaufpreise für Boden spiegeln daher die langfristigen Erwartungen der im Sektor Tätigen wider, und die Beziehung zwischen Kauf- und Pachtpreisen lässt Rückschlüsse über die Erwartungen der Bodennachfrager und -anbieter über die zukünftige Entwicklung in der Landwirtschaft zu. In diesem Kapitel wird: * das Konzept der Grundrente erläutert und die Grundrente in ihre wichtigsten Komponenten zerlegt, * der Zusammenhang zwischen Grundrente und Bodenpacht erläutert, * der Zusammenhang zwischen Bodenpacht- und Kaufpreisen diskutiert, * die Bedeutung der Erwartungen für die Bodenpreisbildung dargestellt und * die Bedeutung der Institutionen und Transaktionskosten aufgezeigt werden.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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    Durham, NC: Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: In this paper, we build on data on Fed officials, oral history repositories, and hitherto under-researched archival sources to unpack the torturous path toward crafting an institutional and intellectual space for postwar economic analysis within the Federal Reserve. We show that growing attention to new macroeconomic research was a reaction to both mounting external criticisms against the Fed's decision making process and a process internal to the discipline whereby institutionalism was displaced by neoclassical theory and econometrics. We argue that the rise of the number of PhD economists working at the Fed is a symptom rather than a cause of this transformation. Key to our story are a handful of economists from the Board of Governors' Division of Research and Statistics (DRS) who paradoxically did not always held a PhD but envisioned their role as going beyond mere data accumulation and got involved in large-scale macroeconometric model building. We conclude that the divide between PhD and non-PhD economists may not be fully relevant to understand both the shift in the type of economics practiced at the Fed and the uses of this knowledge in the decision making-process. Equally important was the rift between different styles of economic analysis.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 133
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    Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Der ökologische Landbau gilt als ein nachhaltiges Landnutzungssystem und wird deshalb in besonderer Weise politisch unterstützt. Obwohl die Zusammenhänge zwischen der ökologischen Wirtschaftsweise und der Erbringung gesellschaftlich relevanter Umweltleistungen auf eine zunehmend breitere Anerkennung stoßen, werden die Potenziale des ökologischen Landbaus zur Bewältigung der umwelt- und ressourcenpolitischen Herausforderungen unserer Zeit in Politik und Wissenschaft weiterhin unterschiedlich bewertet. Vor diesem Hintergrund war es das Ziel dieser Arbeit, die gesellschaftlichen Leistungen des ökologischen Landbaus in den Bereichen Wasserschutz, Bodenfruchtbarkeit, Biodiversität, Klimaschutz, Klimaanpassung, Ressourceneffizienz und Tierwohl auf der Grundlage einer umfassenden Analyse wissenschaftlicher Veröffentlichungen zu bewerten. Im Rahmen einer Literaturrecherche wurden insgesamt 528 Studien mit 2.816 Vergleichspaaren für die Auswertung ausgewählt, die folgende Kriterien erfüllten: (a) Erscheinungszeitraum: Januar 1990 bis März 2018, (b) Region: temperierte Klimazonen, (c) Studiendesign: mindestens ein Vergleichspaar mit einer ökologischen und konventionellen Variante und (d) Sprache: Studien in deutscher oder englischer Sprache. Die Ergebnisse der Paarvergleiche wurden deskriptiv statistisch ausgewertet (Min-Werte, Max-Werte, Mittelwerte, Median) und mithilfe von Boxplot-Diagrammen graphisch veranschaulicht. Ferner wurden die Ergebnisse der ökologischen Variante der einzelnen Paarvergleiche hinsichtlich ihrer relativen Merkmalsausprägung im Vergleich zur konventionellen Variante auf der Basis quantitativer Kriterien klassifiziert (Öko +, Öko =, Öko -). Die Auswertung der wissenschaftlichen Literatur ergab über alle Indikatoren hinweg, dass die ökologische Bewirtschaftung gegenüber der konventionellen Variante im Bereich des Umwelt und Ressourcenschutzes bei 58 % der analysierten Vergleichspaare Vorteile aufwies. Bei 28 % konnten keine Unterschiede festgestellt werden, bei 14 % der Vergleichspaare war die konventionelle Variante vorteilhafter. Kein klares Bild zeigte sich beim Tierwohl. Bei 46 % der Vergleichspaare wurden über alle Tierarten und Produktionsrichtungen hinweg keine eindeutigen Unterschiede zwischen der ökologischen und konventionellen Tierhaltung festgestellt. Die ökologische Wirtschaftsweise wies bei 35 % der Vergleichspaare Vorteile auf, wohingegen die konventionelle Variante bei 19 % der Vergleichspaare besser abschnitt. Allerdings wurden nur sehr wenige Studien gefunden, die Tierwohl im umfassenden Sinne berücksichtigten. [...]
    Description: Organic farming is considered to be a sustainable land use system and is therefore specifically supported. Although the interactions between organic farming and the resulting socially relevant environmental benefits have received widespread recognition in science and politics, the potential of organic farming to solve the environmental and resource challenges of our time are still assessed differently. Against this background, the aim of this study was to conduct a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of scientific studies on public goods provided by organic farming in the following areas: water protection, soil fertility, biodiversity, climate protection, climate adaptation, resource efficiency, and animal welfare. As part of a literature review, a total of 528 studies with 2,816 pairs (organic vs. conventional farming) were selected for the analysis. These studies had to meet the following criteria: (a) publication period: January 1990 to March 2018; (b) region: temperate climates; (c) study design: at least one organic / conventional pair, and (d) language: studies in German or English. The results of the comparisons between organic and conventional farming were statistically evaluated (min values, max values, mean values, median) and graphically illustrated using box plot diagrams. In addition, the results of the organic variant of the individual pairs were classified on the basis of quantitative criteria with regard to their relative characteristics compared to the conventional variant (Organic +, Organic =, Organic -). Across all indicators for the fields of environmental protection and resource conservation, organic management showed advantages over conventional management in 58 % of the pairs analysed. No differences were found for 28 %, and in 14 % of the comparison pairs, the conventional management was more advantageous. No clear picture was drawn regarding animal welfare. No substantial differences were found between organic and conventional livestock across all animal species and production forms in 46 % of the comparison pairs. The organic management showed advantages in 35 % of the pairs, whereas the conventional version performed better in 19 % of the pairs. However, very few studies have been found considering animal welfare in a comprehensive sense. [...]
    Keywords: ddc:630
    Language: German
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  • 134
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Unrealistic assumptions underlying neo-classical economic theory have been challenged by both behavioral economics and studies of moral economy. But both challengers share certain features with neo-classical theory. Complementing them, recent work in the anthropology of ethics shows that economic behavior is not reducible to either individual psychology or collective norms. This approach is illustrated with studies of transactions taking place at the borders between market rationality and relationships among persons - organ donation and sex work. The paper argues that the inherent value accorded to social relations tends to resist instrumentalization and that the biases that dealing with other people introduce into reasoning are not flaws but part of the core functions of rationality.
    Keywords: A10 ; D01 ; D63 ; D91 ; E71 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; ethics ; moral economy ; behavioral economics ; organ donation ; sex work ; gifts ; social interaction ; rationality
    Language: English
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  • 135
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    Bamberg: Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group (BERG)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: We analyze the effects of consumers' limited attention on welfare in a model of horizontal product differentiation. We present a novel approach of modeling limited attention: an attention radius. Each consumer only notices goods that are within her attention radius, i.e., goods that are sufficiently similar to her preferred version of the good. Limited attention induces firms to differentiate their products in a way that is beneficial to consumers. In addition, prices may be lower under limited than under full attention. Consumer surplus and welfare are not maximized under full attention but increase for some degree of limited attention.
    Keywords: D43 ; D91 ; L13 ; ddc:330 ; Attention ; Horizontal Product Differentiation ; Hotelling ; Price Discrimination
    Language: English
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  • 136
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: We examine the credit channel of monetary policy from 2000 to 2015 in the Euro Area using daily monetary policy shock and credit risk measures in an autoregressive distributed lag model. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a short-run increase in the credit risk of non-financial corporations. This dysfunctionality of the credit channel is driven by the crisis-dominated post-2009 period. During this period, market participants may have interpreted expansionary monetary policy shocks as a signal of worsening economic prospects. We further distinguish policy shocks aiming at short- and long-run expectations of market participants, i.e. target and path shocks. The adverse effect disappears for crisis countries when the European Central Bank targets long-run rather than short-run expectations.
    Keywords: C22 ; E44 ; E52 ; G12 ; ddc:330 ; Credit Channel ; Credit Spreads ; Euro Area Financial Markets ; Forward Guidance ; Monetary Policy ; Zero Lower Bound
    Language: English
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  • 137
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Fairtrade certification aims at transferring wealth from the consumer to the farmer; however, coffee passes through many hands before reaching final consumers. Bringing together retail, wholesale, and stock market data, this study estimates how much more consumers are paying for Fairtrade-certified coffee in US supermarkets and finds estimates around $1 per lb. I then assess how this price premium is split between the different stages of the value chain: most of the premium goes to the roaster's profit margin, while the retailer surprisingly makes smaller absolute profits on Fairtrade-certified coffee, compared to conventional coffee. The coffee farmer receives about a fifth of the price premium paid by the consumer, but it is unclear how much of this (quantity-dependent) benefit goes toward the payment of (quantity-independent) license fees.
    Keywords: L15 ; L31 ; L66 ; O13 ; Q01 ; ddc:330 ; Coffee ; Fairtrade ; Price premium ; Value chain ; Voluntary sustainability standards
    Language: English
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  • 138
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: This article studies the evolution of housing rents in St. Petersburg between 1880 and 1917, covering an eventful period of Russian and world history. We collect and digitize over 5,000 rental advertisements from a local newspaper, which we use together with geo-coded addresses and detailed structural characteristics to construct a quality-adjusted rent price index in continuous time. We provide the first pre-war and pre-Soviet index based on market data for any Russian housing market. In 1915, one of the world's earliest rent control and tenant protection policies was introduced in response to soaring prices following the outbreak of World War I. We analyze the impact of this policy: while before the regulation rents were increasing at a similar rapid pace as other consumer prices, the policy reversed this trend. We find evidence for official compliance with the policy, document a rise in tenure duration and strongly increased rent affordability among workers after the introduction of the policy. We conclude that the immediate prelude to the October Revolution was indeed characterized by economic turmoil, but rent affordability and rising rents were no longer the dominating problems.
    Keywords: C14 ; C43 ; N93 ; O18 ; ddc:330 ; Rental Market ; Rent Regulation ; Intra-Urban Rent Dynamics ; Hedonic Rent Price Index ; Economic History ; Pre-Soviet Russia ; October Revolution
    Language: English
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  • 139
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    Neubiberg: Universität der Bundeswehr München, Economic Research Group
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: In this paper, we intend so "re-construct" the famous Barone-curve, which goes back to Enrico Barone's contributions to economics in the 1930s. After discussing the comparative statics and the distribution of profits features of the model, we have explicitly introduced, for the first time, the demand side of the economy into the model. This is important when it comes to assess the relevance of major demand factors' elasticities. Thereafter, we have set up a dynamic version of the Barone curve model. Based on a heterogeneous second order differential equation, the stability and convergence properties of prices are identified under the conditions of an existing Barone curve. Finally, we have analyzed possible empirical investigations on the relevance of the Barone curve and evaluated policy implications.
    Keywords: B31 ; B22 ; E32 ; O31 ; O11 ; O47 ; ddc:330 ; Innovation ; imitation ; Barone curve ; Static and dynamic macro modeling
    Language: English
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  • 140
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    Durham, NC: Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: The following is a work in progress and will be Chapter 2 of a book entitled "The Rule of Law, Economic Development, & Corporate Governance." The first chapter will be an introduction to the major ideas and themes of the book. This chapter explains the Anglophile Rule of Law and its history. The next chapter will explain the civilian version, termed the Rule through Law and its history. The Rule of Law is part of the Anglo-American liberty narrative, while the Rule through Law is part of the equality narrative. Chapters that follow will focus on how the two different concepts effect Economic Development and Corporate Governance and what this means for developing effective policies in different cultural environments. The work will be aimed at a multi-disciplinary audience.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 141
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    Göttingen: Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Department für Agrarökonomie und Rurale Entwicklung (DARE)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Farmers' vulnerability to adverse weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude due to climate change, is a major impediment to a sufficient credit supply. Smallholder farmers' access to credit is, among other factors, crucial for productivity and out-put growth. Index insurance could help lenders to compensate for lacking installment payments in years with severe weather conditions and, thus, is considered to accelerate agricultural lending. Using a unique borrower dataset provided by a Microfinance Institution (MFI) in Madagascar, we analyze whether remotely-sensed vegetation health indices can explain the credit risk of the MFI's agricultural loan portfolio. Therefore, we utilize sequential logit models and quantile regressions. More specifically, we consider the remotely-sensed Vegetation Condition Index, Temperature Condition Index and the Vegetation Health Index as independent variables at the individual branch and the aggregated bank level. These indices are available globally and can potentially enhance the effectiveness of index insurance by reducing basis risk, a major drawback of index insurance. Moreover, we consider loan- and socio-demographic variables of the borrowers as additional independent variables. Our results show that the credit risk of the MFI is explained, to a large extent, by the vegetation health indices. Moreover, the results from quantile regressions show that the explanatory power of the vegetation health indices increases with increasing credit risk. Thus, utilizing remotely-sensed vegetation health indices for index insurance designs might be particularly valuable for MFIs to hedge the credit risk of their agricultural loan portfolio. Facing lower default rates, MFIs could reduce interest rates. Remotely-sensed index insurance could therefore enhance access to credit, contributing to sustainable development in the study region.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Remotely-sensed data ; Vegetation Health Indices ; Credit risk ; Microcredit ; Index insurance
    Language: English
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  • 142
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    s.l.: Forum on Capital As Power - Toward a New Cosmology of Capitalism
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: This paper clarifies a common misrepresentation of our theory of capital as power, or CasP. Many observers tend to box CasP as an ‘institutionalist’ theory, tracing its central process of ‘differential accumulation’ to Thorstein Veblen’s notion of ‘differential advantage’. This view, we argue, betrays a misunderstanding of CasP, Veblen or both. First, we are not Veblenians and certainly not institutionalists: Veblen’s theory was evolutionary, while CasP is deeply dialectical, and institutionalism, particularly its ‘new’ varieties, emphasizes and often promotes what holds capitalism together, whereas CasP critically examines both the underpinnings of capitalized power as well as the forces that threaten and undermine it. Second, CasP’s notion of differential accumulation is not only different from, but also diametrically opposed to Veblen’s differential advantage. Veblen, who wrote at the turn of the twentieth century, before the appearance of business indices and financial benchmarks, emphasized the absolute drive for ‘maximum profit’ and saw strategic sabotage merely as a power means to an economic end. By contrast, CasP, which was developed at the end of the twentieth century, sees power not only as a means of accumulation, but also – and perhaps more importantly – as its ultimate purpose. Accumulators, it argues, are conditioned and driven to augment not their profits and assets as such, but their relative power, and this means that, as symbolic bearers of power, these profits and assets should be measured not absolutely, but relatively to those of others – hence the imperative of differential accumulation.
    Keywords: P16 ; B15 ; B25 ; B52 ; L ; P22 ; E23 ; D3 ; ddc:330 ; capital as power ; differential accumulation ; differential advantage ; evolutionary economics ; institutionalism ; power ; Thorstein Veblen
    Language: English
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  • 143
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    Braunschweig: Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Diese Studie zeigt für insgesamt 13 Indikatoren aus den Bereichen Wirtschaftskraft, soziale Lage sowie Daseinsvorsorge und Infrastruktur, wie sich die regionalen Disparitäten in Deutschland seit dem Jahr 2000 entwickelt haben. Im Ergebnis lässt sich auf der räumlichen Analyseebene der Kreisregionen weder ein grundsätzliches Auseinanderdriften der Regionen in Deutschland noch eine pauschale Abkopplung ländlicher Räume von der gesamtgesellschaftlichen Entwicklung feststellen. Für 11 der 13 Indikatoren waren die ermittelten Disparitäten im Untersuchungszeitraum relativ konstant oder haben abgenommen, bei zwei Indikatoren haben sie zugenommen. Unterschiede zwischen der Gesamtheit der ländlichen und der der nichtländlichen Räume sind ebenfalls bei 11 der 13 Indikatoren über den gesamten Beobachtungszeitraum nahezu nicht vorhanden, konstant geblieben oder haben sich zugunsten der ländlichen Räume entwickelt. Zum Teil dürfte vor allem letzteres auf eine passive Sanierung zurückzuführen sein, da insbesondere viele ländliche Regionen von einem Bevölkerungsrückgang gekennzeichnet sind. Am Ende des Beobachtungszeitraums stehen die ländlichen Räume in ihrer Gesamtheit bei drei der betrachteten 13 Indikatoren besser da als die Gesamtheit der nicht-ländlichen Räume, bei vier schlechter und bei sechs ist kein nennenswerter Niveauunterschied (mehr) vorhanden. Über alle Indikatoren hinweg lassen sich keine einheitlichen räumlichen Muster identifizieren. Inwiefern bestehende regionale Unterschiede und deren Entwicklung im Zeitablauf einen politischen Handlungsbedarf begründen, ist in erster Linie eine normative und keine wissenschaftliche Frage, sodass sie von den gesellschaftlich dazu legitimierten Entscheidungsträgern zu beantworten ist. Die Ergebnisse dieser Studie können dazu beitragen, die Entscheidungsgrundlage für die politisch Verantwortlichen zu verbessern.
    Description: In this study, we investigate the development of regional disparities with regard to economic, social, and infrastructural indicators for Germany. We analyse a total of 13 indicators on the scale of county regions and review particularly the period from 2000 until the most recent year for which data are available. As a result, we neither observe that regions in Germany are generally diverging nor that rural areas are lagging behind the socio-economic development of the whole society. Eleven out of 13 indicators show rather stable or decreasing disparities and we observe increasing disparities in terms of two indicators. Territorial inequalities between rural and nonrural areas do almost not exist over the whole period under study, remained virtually stable or developed in favour of rural regions with regard to again eleven of the 13 indicators. However, the decreasing disparities could result at least partly from an effect called 'passive regeneration'. This means that the convergence is not driven by real improvements, but only by a decline of the relation group in the denominator, for instance in the course of outmigration which many rural regions were affected by. At the end of the observation period, rural areas in total outperform non-rural areas concerning three indicators, they lack behind in respect of four indicators, and there is no significant difference (anymore) between both spatial types regarding six indicators. Altogether, the 13 indicators build no consistent pattern in space. Whether existing disparities and their developments from the year 2000 on call for political action, remains first and foremost a normative and no scientific question. Therefore, democratically legitimated decision makers have to answer this question. Our study results may contribute to this discussion by improving the basis for decision-making for the people in power.
    Keywords: R12 ; R23 ; ddc:630 ; Ländliche Regionen ; Sozioökonomische Entwicklung ; Sozialräumliche Ungleichheiten ; Territoriale Disparitäten ; Konvergenz und Divergenz ; rural regions ; socio-economic development ; socio-spatial inequalities ; territorial disparities ; convergence and divergence
    Language: German
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  • 144
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Youth unemployment, and unemployment, in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) countries are among the highest in the world. The tendency to generalize, however, is inappropriate as different groups of countries exhibit vastly different labor market outcomes and causes vary. The standard way of thinking about youth unemployment - i.e. demand for labor driven by economic growth and supply driven by demographics - is of limited use in the MENA countries. Other factors, including sectoral composition of growth, the oil and gas endowment, a large pool of underutilized workers, cultural factors, and mismatch appear to play a more important role, as the case study of Morocco illustrates. The prospects for reducing youth unemployment over the next few years are not good. Policy-makers need to pay more attention to the growth of services, especially those that are, and that tend to remain, labor intensive.
    Keywords: J23 ; J48 ; J61 ; J71 ; ddc:330 ; unemployment ; youth bulge ; labor demand ; labor productivity ; Middle East ; North Africa ; oil states
    Language: English
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  • 145
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Fluctuations of exchange rates, like any other economic variables, are very common in financial markets. However, sometimes because of political and economic tensions, exchange rates exhibit abrupt crashes that lead to structural break. In this paper, the author answers the question whether a catastrophe model can be used for modeling the collapse of exchange rates caused by economic sanctions. For this goal, he uses a cusp catastrophe model for fitting the dynamics of fluctuations of the Iranian Rial against the US Dollar. Using two sentiment variables, i.e. trading volume and ratio of institutional to individual trades of gold futures contracts, the author has shown that the collapse of Iranian currency can be best explained by cusp catastrophe theory.
    Keywords: C13 ; C53 ; ddc:330 ; cusp catastrophe theory ; exchange rate ; fluctuations
    Language: English
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  • 146
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: This vision brief may be summarized by the following points. First, the crisis of the liberal world order arises from a misalignment of our social, economic and political domains of activity, along with a resulting destabilization of our physical environment. The integration of the global economy has generated problems that extend beyond our current bounds of social and political cooperation. Second, extending our social cooperation - on which basis our political cooperation can be extended as well - requires the creation of the appropriate moral narratives. These narratives must guide business strategies, public policies and civic activities. Third, these narratives must be supplemented by multilevel governance structures that address challenges at the scale - micro, meso and macro - at which these chal-lenges arise. Finally, past human experience in developing moral narratives, supported by multilevel governance structures, suggests guidelines for a future form of multilateralism that enables us to meet this challenge.
    Keywords: A12 ; A13 ; A14 ; B55 ; F02 ; H11 ; ddc:330 ; economy ; polity ; society ; environment ; liberal world order ; social cooperation ; multilevel governance ; narratives
    Language: English
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  • 147
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: In July 2017, issued a call for papers for a special issue on "The Practice of Replication." In that call, the journal explained that there was no generally accepted procedure for how to do a replication. Likewise, there was no generally accepted standard for determining whether a replication "confirms" or "disconfirms" an original study. Accordingly, the journal called for papers to identify principles for how to do a replication and how to interpret its results; and to apply those principles in crafting a replication plan for a study of the author's choosing. The hope was that this exercise would produce some progress on "the practice of replication". The special issue is now complete with a total of eight journal articles. This commentary places the respective articles within a common framework and identifies observations and lessons learned from the respective studies.
    Keywords: C10 ; C18 ; C50 ; ddc:330 ; replication ; pre-analysis plan ; reproduction ; repetition ; extension ; robustness
    Language: English
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  • 148
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: The one-child policy was implemented in September 1980 and abolished in late 2015. With this change in the demographic policy, the fertility decision of families also changed. Such decisions can result in an increase in the number of siblings in a family. Individuals' educational outcomes may be affected by a change in their parents' fertility decision. The objective of this paper is to provide evidence of the difference of educational outcomes between the only child and the first born. The authors try to estimate the change of educational outcomes when the only child of a family turns to the first born of a family. Moreover, they estimate different channels to interpret these effects. They employ the dataset of China Education Panel data in this paper. In the part of mechanism check, the Sobel-Good test is used for checking the mediation effects of different channels. They found the only child has significant higher educational outcomes comparing to a child who has siblings. Furthermore, the middle child has the lowest educational outcomes of a family. The last born has higher educational outcomes than his or her siblings. To explain these effects, the authors use three channels to interpret: (1) money resource, (2) parenting time, and (3) closeness of parent-child relationships. The policy implication is to help the policymaker estimate and predict the impact of the new demographic policy.
    Keywords: I20 ; J13 ; ddc:330 ; only child ; birth orders ; educational outcomes
    Language: English
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  • 149
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Case and Deaton (2015) document that, since 1998, midlife mortality rates are increasing for white non-Hispanics in the US. This trend is driven by deaths from drug overdoses, suicides, and alcohol-related diseases, termed as deaths of despair, and by the subgroup of low-educated individuals. In contrast, average mortality for middle-aged men and women continued to decrease in several other high-income countries including Germany. However, average mortality rates can disguise important differences between subgroups and the phenomenon of increasing mortality rates might also be present for subpopulations in these countries. Hence, we analyze how mortality in midlife is changing for several important demographic subgroups in Germany over the 1990 to 2015 period with a focus on deaths of despair. Our results show a very clear pattern: We find that mortality rates declined between 1990 and 2015, with no increases in deaths of despair for any of the subgroups. Thus, our findings starkly contrast with those for the US.
    Keywords: I10 ; I14 ; J11 ; ddc:330 ; mortality ; lifetime inequality ; causes of death ; deaths of despair ; Germany
    Language: English
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  • 150
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: German
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  • 151
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: The authors propose an explanation of why Europeans choose to work fewer hours than Americans and also suffer higher rates of unemployment. Labor market regulations, unemployment benefits, and high levels of public consumption in many European countries reduce, ceteris paribus, the gains from being employed, which makes employed workers ask for higher wages relative to productivity. The higher wages make firms offer fewer vacancies, as well as raising the level of consumption enjoyed by workers, which makes them want to enjoy more leisure because consumption and leisure are complements in the utility function.
    Keywords: J63 ; J64 ; J65 ; ddc:330 ; job search ; unemployment ; working hours
    Language: English
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  • 152
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Existing long-term energy and climate scenarios are typically a rather simple extrapolation of past trends. Both qualitative and quantitative outlooks co-exist, but they often focus narrowly on individual perspectives, which is opposed to the interlinked and complex nature of energy and climate. Therefore, this study presents a set of novel and multidisciplinary narratives that give insight into four distinct and extreme yet plausible worlds: base case 'Business-as-usual', worst case 'Survival of the Fittest', best case 'Green Cooperation', and surprise scenario 'ClimateTech'. Going beyond other outlooks, our narratives focus on changes in the geopolitical landscape and global order, social perspectives on climate issues, and technological progress. These holistic scenarios are designed to overcome previous barriers by an innovative bridging between both qualitative and quantitative methods. We start with the generation of qualitative scenario storylines using techniques of foresight analysis, including a facilitated expert workshop. Then, we calibrate the numerical energy systems model Multimod to reflect the different storylines. Finally, we unite and refine storylines and numerical model results into holistic narratives. In addition to the narratives (which include quantitative results on e.g. emissions, energy consumption, and the electricity mix), the study generates insights on the key uncertainties and drivers of different pathways of (more or less successful) climate change mitigation. Additionally, a set of transparent indicators serves as an early-warning system to identify which of the paths the world might enter. Lessons learnt include the dangers from increased isolationism and the importance of integrating economic and energy-related objectives as well as the large role of public opinion and social transition.
    Keywords: C61 ; C73 ; D78 ; F50 ; L13 ; Q40 ; Q47 ; Q54 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; energy and climate ; scenarios ; equilibrium model ; global order ; geopolitics
    Language: English
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  • 153
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    Berlin: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: This paper provides the first comprehensive review of the empirical and theoretical literature on the determinants of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Our focus is on the two-input constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. By example of the U.S., we highlight the distinctive heterogeneity in empirical estimates of σ at both the aggregate and industrial level and discuss potential methodological explanations for this variation. The main part of this survey then focuses on the determinants of σ. We first review several approaches to the microfoundation of production functions, especially the CES production function. Second, we outline the construction of an aggregate elasticity of substitution (AES) in a multi-sectoral framework and investigate its dependence on underlying sectoral elasticities. Third, we discuss the influence of the institutional framework on the determination of σ. The concluding section of this review identifies a number of potential empirical and theoretical avenues for future research. Overall, we demonstrate that the effective elasticity of substitution (EES), which is typically estimated in empirical studies, is generally not an immutable deep parameter but depends on a multitude of technological, non-technological and institutional determinants.
    Keywords: D24 ; E23 ; O14 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; elasticity of substitution ; aggregate elasticity ; capital ; labor ; economic growth ; microfoundation ; Cobb-Douglas and CES production function
    Language: English
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  • 154
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Two systems in the brain that are involved in emotional and economic decision-making are described. The first is an evolutionarily old emotion-based system that operates on rewards defined by the genes such as food, warmth, social reputation, and having children. Such decisions are often based on heuristics, such as being highly sensitive to losses, because a single loss might influence one's reproductive success. This is a multidimensional system with many rewards and punishers, all of which cannot be simultaneously optimized. The second route to decision-making involves reasoning, in which it is assumed that utility can be accurately assessed and logical reason can be applied, though the human brain is not naturally computationally good at logical assessment. When decisions are taken, all those factors apply, and in addition there is noise introduced into the system by the random firing times of neurons for a given mean firing rate. The implications for economic decision-making are described. In macroeconomics, it is assumed that the economy behaves like one "representative" agent who can take rational and logical decisions, and who can maximize utility over a constraint. Given the neuroscience of decision-making, the situation is more complex. The utility function may be multidimensional, the reward value along each dimension may fluctuate, the reasoning may be imperfect, and the decision-making process is subject to noise in the brain, making it somewhat random from occasion to occasion. Moreover, each individual has a different set of value functions along each dimension, with different sensitivities to different rewards and punishers, which are expressed in the different personalities of different individuals. These factors underlying the neuroscience of human decision-making need to be taken into account in building and utilizing macroeconomic theories.
    Keywords: D01 ; D87 ; D91 ; E71 ; G41 ; ddc:330 ; decision-making ; brain mechanisms ; probabilistic choice ; attractor network ; reward value ; economic value ; macroeconomics ; microeconomics ; orbitofrontal cortex
    Language: English
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  • 155
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    Bamberg: Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group (BERG)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: Based on a behavioral stock-flow housing market model in which the expectation formation behavior of boundedly rational and heterogeneous investors may generate endogenous boom-bust cycles, we explore whether central banks can stabilize housing markets via the interest rate. Using a mix of analytical and numerical tools, we find that the ability of central banks to tame housing markets by increasing the base (target) interest rate, thereby softening the demand pressure on house prices, is rather limited. However, central banks can greatly improve the stability of housing markets by following an interest rate rule that adjusts the interest rate with respect to mispricing in the housing market.
    Keywords: D91 ; E58 ; R31 ; ddc:330 ; housing markets ; heterogeneous expectations ; variance beliefs ; endogenous boom-bust cycles ; interest rates ; nonlinear dynamics
    Language: English
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  • 156
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-08
    Description: The authors analyze financial interactions between fundamentalists and chartists within a heterogeneous agent model, focusing on the role of fundamentalists stabilizing prices. In contrast to related studies, which are based on simulations and calculations, they analytically prove that the presence of fundamentalists is not sufficient to avoid asset price bubbles. The behavior of trend followers with bounded leverage can result in exploding prices irrespective of fundamentalists' investment decisions. They derive upper boundaries for positive feedback traders' initial investment necessary to avoid exploding prices. In order to stabilize stock/asset markets, intervention measures might be helpful.
    Keywords: D84 ; G01 ; G11 ; ddc:330 ; heterogeneous agents ; feedback trading ; fundamentalists ; chartists ; trend followers ; financial bubbles ; financial crisis
    Language: English
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  • 157
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    Publication Date: 2019-02-04
    Description: Recent developments in optical biosensors based on integrated photonic devices are reviewed with a special emphasis on silicon-on-insulator ring resonators. The review is mainly devoted to the following aspects: (1) Principles of sensing mechanism, (2) sensor design, (3) biofunctionalization procedures for specific molecule detection and (4) system integration and measurement set-ups. The inherent challenges of implementing photonics-based biosensors to meet specific requirements of applications in medicine, food analysis, and environmental monitoring are discussed.
    Keywords: ddc:570
    Language: English
    Type: article , doc-type:article
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  • 158
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    San Francisco, CA: Public Library of Science
    Publication Date: 2019-02-06
    Description: Most research on consumer attitudes does not consider that attitudes are likely influenced by people with whom we have some relationship even though socioeconomic, psychological and political theories recognize the importance of referent individuals’ opinions in attitude formation. Knowledge on the role of referent individuals’ opinions in attitude formation could improve the understanding of consumer acceptance of foods frequently associated with health or other concerns. This article examines the association of attitudes towards genetically modified (GM) crops and foods between young adults and their referent individuals using data collected in 2016 via surveys from the Czech Republic, Russia and Ukraine. Loglinear models of cell counts in contingency tables reveal a positive association of GM food attitudes between young adults and their referent individuals. This association was stronger in Russia and the Czech Republic than it was in Ukraine and stronger between female young adults and their referent individuals than between males and their referent individuals. Concordance in GM food attitudes with mothers is significantly stronger than concordance with best friends but not significantly different from concordance with fathers.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Language: English
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  • 159
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    Wien: Agenda Austria
    Publication Date: 2019-02-05
    Description: The rise of populist radical right parties represents one of the most dramatic shifts in European party systems of the past decades. Although it has been established that the populist radical right's core appeal centers around issues of immigration and multiculturalism rather than economic matters, there has been a debate in the literature about the role of socioeconomic factors as a driver of PRRP success. We focus on two strands of argument relating to the welfare state and its impact on PRRP support. On the one hand, generous social policy regimes may mitigate the adverse economic effects of globalization and thus make workers less vulnerable to the appeal of populist radical right parties (the inoculation hypothesis). On the other hand, generous welfare regimes may make voters more concerned about increased numbers of low-skilled immigrants entering a country and potentially claiming benefits paid for largely by the taxes and contributions of the native population (the welfare chauvinism hypothesis). Our results suggest several channels through which the welfare state affects votes for the PRRP. Firstly, social protection seems to moderate economic vulnerability: in countries with higher relative redistribution and/or poverty prevention, the economically vulnerable are less likely to vote for the PRRP. Secondly, the direct effect of social welfare measures on the populist vote is positive when considering individual voters' positions. Thirdly, a stronger welfare state contributes to increasing the salience of the immigration platform for voting decisions. As a result, voters in high-redistribution countries are more likely to vote for the PRRP if they have a more moderate view on migration.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Populism ; Right-Wing Populism ; Welfare State ; Party Systems ; Europe ; Social Protection
    Language: English
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  • 160
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    Wien: Agenda Austria
    Publication Date: 2019-02-05
    Description: The Austrian Beveridge curve shifted in 2014, leading to ongoing academic discussions about the reasons behind this shift. While some have argued that the shift was caused by a supply shock due to labour market liberalization, others have stated that matching efficiency decreased. Using a new decomposition method, combined with detailed labour market flow data, we are the first to disentangle supply-side, demand-side and matching factors, which could potentially cause a shift in the Beveridge curve in Austria. We find empirical evidence to confirm that the increase in the unemployment rate in Austria after 2011 can indeed be attributed to a supply-side shock. But, contrary to other research, our analysis shows that the shift in the Beveridge curve after 2014 was mainly caused by a decrease in matching efficiency, indicating a rising mismatch problem in the Austrian labour market.
    Keywords: J62 ; J63 ; E24 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; Beveridge curve ; crisis ; mismatch ; unemployment ; structural unemployment ; vacancies
    Language: English
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  • 161
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-02-05
    Description: Der vorliegende Report berichtet über die Tarifverhandlungen im 2. Halbjahr 2018. Im 1. Halbjahr hatte es bereits Tarifverhandlungen in wichtigen Branchen gegeben, beispielsweise in der Metall- und Elektro-Industrie, im Öffentlichen Dienst (Bund und Kommunen) und im Bauhauptgewerbe. Im 2. Halbjahr 2018 stand vor allem der Verkehrssektor im Fokus der Tarifauseinandersetzungen. Dabei gab es bei der Deutschen Bahn und in der Luftfahrt eine Reihe von Warnstreiks, die erhebliche Auswirkungen auf Drittbetroffene hatten. In der Luftfahrt schwelten verschiedene Tarifkonflikte bei der irischen Fluggesellschaft Ryanair, die sich nach der Insolvenz von AirBerlin zu einem zentralen Akteur im deutschen Flugverkehr entwickelt hat. Die Verhandlungen mit den Piloten eskalierten dabei ebenso wie die Verhandlungen mit dem Kabinenpersonal. Es gab mehrfach Warn- oder Tagesstreiks. Im November 2018 konnten für beide Berufsgruppen Eckpunkte vereinbart werden, auf deren Basis nun erstmals für das Unternehmen Tarifverträge für das in Deutschland stationierte Personal entwickelt werden. Auch bei Eurowings kam es im Streit um einen neuen Manteltarifvertrag für das Kabinenpersonal zu Warnstreiks. Dieser Konflikt wurde noch nicht beigelegt. Bei der Deutschen Bahn kam es ebenfalls zu einem Warnstreik, der bundesweit fast den gesamten Zugverkehr zum Erliegen brachte. Zum Ausstand hatte nicht die Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokführer (GDL), sondern die konkurrierende Eisenbahn- und Verkehrsgewerkschaft (EVG) aufgerufen. Nach diesem Warnstreik einigten sich EVG und Deutsche Bahn auf einen neuen Tarifabschluss, der auch half, die zwischenzeitlich abgebrochenen Verhandlungen zwischen Bahn und GDL wieder aufzunehmen und zum Abschluss zu bringen. Auch in anderen Wirtschaftszweigen verliefen die Verhandlungen eher stockend. In der Druckindustrie schwelt ein Grundsatzkonflikt. Dort hatten die Arbeitgeber den Manteltarifvertrag gekündigt. Die Vereinte Dienstleistungsgewerkschaft (ver.di) lehnt aber jedwede Verschlechterung von Arbeitsbedingungen ab. Für die Gebäudereinigung fordert die IG Bauen-Agrar-Umwelt (IG BAU) ein 13. Monatsgehalt. Dies lehnen wiederum die Arbeitgeber strikt ab. In keiner der beiden Branchen deutet sich trotz monatelanger Verhandlungen derzeit eine Kompromisslinie an. Schwierig waren auch die Verhandlungen bei T-Systems, einer Tochter der Deutschen Telekom. Hier wurden die Verhandlungen dadurch belastet, dass das Management angekündigt hatte, massiv Stellen abbauen zu wollen. Im Durchschnitt von insgesamt 22 analysierten Tarifverhandlungen, die entweder im Jahr 2018 beendet wurden oder 2018 begannen, lag die Konfliktintensität bei 10,5 Punkten. Die Auseinandersetzung zwischen Ryanair und den Piloten führte zu 53 Konfliktpunkten, der Tarifkonflikt in der Metall- und Elektro-Industrie zu 35 Punkten und der in der Druckindustrie zu 31 Punkten. Harmonisch ging es hingegen in der Chemischen Industrie zu. Dort einigten sich die Sozialpartner konfliktfrei. Aufgrund der guten Arbeitsmarktlage könnte auch das Jahr 2019 konfliktreich werden. Nach wie vor liegen die Forderungen der Gewerkschaften bei 5,5 bis 6 Prozent, obwohl sich die Konjunktur abgekühlt hat. Allerdings wird 2019 eher ein kleines Tarifjahr. In vielen Branchen wird es Entgeltsteigerungen geben, die bereits 2018 ausgehandelt wurden.
    Keywords: J50 ; J52