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  • 1
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: Despite significant economic reforms in many Southern Mediterranean EU neighbour countries, their growth performance has on average been subdued. This study analyses the differences in growth performance and macroeconomic stability across Mediterranean countries, to draw lessons for the future. The main findings are that Southern Mediterranean countries should benefit from closer ties with the EU that result in higher levels of trade and FDI inflows, once the turbulence of the 'Arab Spring' is resolved, and from the development of financial markets and infrastructure. They will also benefit in keeping inflation under control, which will depend in great part on their ability to maintain fiscal discipline and sustainable current accounts. One of the main challenges for the region will be to implement structural reforms that can help them absorb a large pool of unemployed without creating upward risks to inflation.
    Keywords: O40 ; F15 ; F43 ; E61 ; ddc:330 ; Growth ; EU neighborhood policy ; Trade ; FDI ; Financial Development ; Inflation ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Inflation ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration ; Westasien ; Nordafrika ; Mittelmeerraum ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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  • 2
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: The EU has been one of the largest trade partners for so called Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Commodity turnover of these countries with the EU vary between 30% and 50% of total, but their access to the EU market is less preferential than for many other neighboring countries. They trade with the EU on the basis of MFN regime, and five EaP countries, with exemption of Belarus, use privileges provided by Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) or the GSP+ or autonomous trade preferences (Moldova). With the launch of EaP initiative in 2009, relations between the EU and the Eastern European countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) have received new impetus for development. The EaP offers upgrade of relations within three major dimensions, namely (a) the Association Agreement (AA), (b) Agreement on a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), and (c) Visa Facilitation and Readmission agreements.The AA talks have been launched with all EaP countries expect for Belarus, and four of them have been involved in the DCFTA talks. Ukraine has progressed the most, as after five years of negotiations the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement with embedded DCFTA has been initialed in 2012.The aim of this study is to assess gains and losses that could arise from the DCFTA with the EU for the EaP countries, using information about EU-Ukraine DCFTA as model case for EaP regional trade cooperation.The focus of the paper is on non-tariff (regulatory) component of the EU DCFTA and potential implications of regulatory approximation. Also, current level of harmonization of EaP countries' regulatory framework with the EU acquis in the areas related to the DCFTA is analyzed.
    Keywords: F15 ; ddc:330 ; EaP ; DCFTA ; Regional Integration ; Ukraine ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Internationale Zusammenarbeit ; Freihandelszone ; Handelspräferenzen ; Assoziierung ; EU-Staaten ; Ukraine ; Osteuropa
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-05-13
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Politik ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; EU-Staaten ; Mittelmeerraum
    Language: Romanian
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 4
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: This paper analyzes the costs of (partial) institutional harmonization with the EU acquis which countries of the former USSR are expected to conduct under their Partnership and Cooperation Agreements with the EU and European Neighborhood Policy Action Plans. The public sector will have to take an effort of the transposition and adaptation of EU norms, as well as ensuring that they are complied with. Yet, the major part of the adjustment costs will fall on the private sector, as enterprises will have to make substantial investments to comply with new product requirements and business practices. In this study we used the method of extrapolation of average costs for CEE countries' harmonization with acquis to estimate the potential harmonization costs for the neighboring countries based on internationally comparative macroeconomic indicators like sectoral and total value added. This involved estimating the EU pre-accession support for the CEE countries by main areas as a percentage of the total or sectoral value added, determining the expected degree of limited harmonization in the ENP countries and estimating coefficients of limited harmonization”, which was subsequently used for adjustment of the estimated cost of full harmonization.
    Keywords: F15 ; P33 ; ddc:330 ; Institutional harmonization ; European integration ; European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) ; economic integration ; market access ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Institutioneller Wandel ; Europäische Integration ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Markteintritt ; Kosten ; Osteuropa ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: Institutional harmonization is an important part of European integration, and its effects are more far reaching than the effects of trade liberalization. In its policy towards neighbors (the European Neighborhood Policy, ENP), the EU puts a lot of stress on the desirability of institutional harmonization, at least in certain areas. In particular, the free trade agreements that the EU envisages concluding with its Eastern neighbors will involve substantial harmonization of product standards, competition policy and a range of other policies and processes. At the very least, the harmonization will have to focus on the areas that relate to improvement of market access, i.e. removing restrictions to trade, harmonizing product standards and the systems of quality control etc. But in order to implement the new standards and rules, the EU neighbors will have to reform many related areas, so that the harmonization will encompass the whole system of economic governance. Not only will such a revamp help attaining better access to the EU markets, but also (and probably more importantly) it will stimulate modernization of the neighbors economies and bring much needed efficiency gains. In measurement of benefits of harmonization we refer to two methods: one based on the computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling of welfare effects of better market access, and the other employing a growth model to estimate the wider effects of European institutions on growth. The estimation of costs of harmonization bases on extrapolation of the analogous costs in other countries, in particular CEE. These costs include expenses by a public sector on introduction of harmonization measures, as well as private sector expenses and investments related to their implementation.
    Keywords: B41 ; F15 ; P33 ; ddc:330 ; Institutional harmonization ; European integration ; European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) ; market access ; non-tariff barriers ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Institutioneller Wandel ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Europäische Integration ; Nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse ; Markteintritt ; EU-Staaten ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: This paper provides the quantitative estimate of the potential growth bonus for CIS countries, and in particular EU's Easter Neighbours, that can be a result of deeper institutional harmonisation with the EU. Econometric investigation involving instrumental variable, simultaneous equation and dynamic panel techniques documents the strong positive link between growth performance and reforms, as well as between reforms and European integration. The paper derives the range of possible values of growth bonus from the deepened neighbourhood cooperation between 1 and 3.8 with the median at 1.8 percentage points. The least growth bonus is expected through basic liberalization reforms, while countries with a considerable institutional gap are likely to gain the most.
    Keywords: F59 ; O19 ; O49 ; O57 ; P21 ; P26 ; P27 ; ddc:330 ; institutions ; reform ; growth ; transition ; integration ; neighbourhood ; dynamic panel ; Institutioneller Wandel ; Wirtschaftswachstum ; Europäische Integration ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; GUS-Staaten ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: The paper discusses the current and potential role of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in anchoring economic reforms in the countries of the EU's Eastern Neighbourhood. It claims that it is too early to assess the success of the ENP in this sphere especially given that the actual progress of the ENP agenda has been limited. A review of the empirical evidence on external reform anchors confirms that the ENP shares some features with the EU accession process that has proven to be an effective mechanism supporting major economic, political and social changes in the countries concerned. The eventual ENP economic offer is meaningful and integration with the EU is getting stronger public support in several CIS countries and among their political elites. On the other hand several factors limit the reform anchoring potential of the ENP. This paper offers recommendations on policies that could strengthen this potential.
    Keywords: P16 ; P48 ; Y80 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; ENP ; CIS ; EU ; political economy ; economic reforms ; reform anchoring ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Politische Reform ; Wirtschaftsreform ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Bucharest: European Institute of Romania
    Publication Date: 2016-05-13
    Description: Due to the enlargement of the European Union towards the Central and Eastern Europe, the EU's external policy priorities have changed. Its frontier moving further to the East, it was necessary to adapt, and even reshape the institutional framework and the policies addressing its new immediate neighbourhood. In this context, a European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was put in place. Later on, the ENP consolidation and reform aims led to the setting up and promotion of new initiatives such as the Union for Mediterranean, the Eastern Partnership, which, together with the Black Sea Synergy project, intend to focus more upon the regional and multilateral dimension of the neighbourhood policy, being complementary to the bilateral basics of ENP. Romania has endorsed and continues to support the goal of a secure and stable area in its Eastern neighbourhood, mostly given its increased responsibilities derived from the Member State status at the Eastern border of the Union. An active supporter of the European perspective of the Republic of Moldova, and also a promoter of the regional and cross-border cooperation, Romania has set off a series of cooperation initiatives for the Black Sea area. It will be important to follow to what extent these projects will prove their efficiency in practical terms, especially in the new framework, generous in instruments, work mechanisms and actions, proposed by the European Neighbourhood Policy.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Internationale Zusammenarbeit ; Rumänien
    Language: Romanian
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 9
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2014-11-17
    Description: The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, we employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. We conclude that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%).
    Keywords: F13 ; F14 ; F15 ; F17 ; ddc:330 ; Institutional harmonization ; European integration ; European Neighborhood Policy ; ENP ; non-tariff barriers ; NTBs ; Computable General Equilibrium ; CGE model ; Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Institutioneller Wandel ; Nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse ; Markteintritt ; EU-Staaten ; Russland ; Ukraine ; Georgien ; Armenien ; Aserbaidschan
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2014-11-17
    Description: Our mandate was to consider the economic feasibility and possible impact of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Armenia. The study has been conducted by a group of researchers from Poland, Ukraine, UK, US and Armenia. All have worked on this project in an independent capacity. The European Commission has also commissioned a similar study for Georgia. Even though the methodology of the two reports is the same, the two studies are independent and the economic feasibility and impact of a free trade agreement with each country is assessed on its own merits. [...]
    Keywords: F15 ; F12 ; O13 ; P48 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; European Neighborhood Policy ; free trade agreement ; institutional harmonization ; EU ; Armenia ; Freihandelszone ; Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Makroökonomischer Einfluss ; EU-Staaten ; Armenien
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: With the Eastern Enlargement successfully completed, the EU is searching for a proper balance between internal security and external stabilisation that is acceptable to all sides. This paper focuses on an EU foreign policy instrument that is a case in point for this struggle: EC visa facilitation and readmission agreements. By looking at the EU's strategy on visa facilitation and readmission, this paper aims to offer a first systematic analysis of the objectives, substance and political implications of these agreements as a means to implement a new EU security approach in the neighbourhood. In offering more relaxed travel conditions in exchange for the signing of an EC readmission agreement and reforming domestic justice and home affairs, the EU has found a new way to press for reforms in neighbouring countries while addressing a major source of discontent in these countries. The analysis concludes with the broader implications of these agreements and argues that even if the facilitated travel opportunities are beneficial for the citizens of the target countries, the positive achievements are undermined by the Schengen enlargement, which makes the new member states tie up their borders to those of their neighbours.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; EU ; EC visa facilitation ; readmission agreements ; European Neighbourhood Policy ; Stabilisation and Association Process ; Justice and Home Affairs ; Außenpolitik ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Visapolitik ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: The CIS region is of vital importance for the EU countries considering that both are interconnected through cooperation or membership in supranational political and economic institutions (OSCE, WTO, OECD, NATO, etc.), through transport and energy corridors, through investment, trade and migration trends. The interests of EU member states in the region are very diverse and are sometimes pursued in contradiction to one another. The overarching interest is of an economic nature, given the large reserves of natural resources (particularly gas and oil) and due to the size of the CIS market of 277 million consumers. Security and immigration issues also rank high on the list, whereas EU countries are less concerned with democratisation trends in the CIS. Russia is the most important CIS partner for a majority of EU countries. Energy plays a disproportionally high role in EU member states (MS) Russia relations and is also a strong determinant of the overall heterogeneity of EU MS policies towards Russia. The type of bilateral relations which the EU MS maintain with one sub-region of the CIS (particularly the EENP, but increasingly also Central Asia) also affects their relations with Russia. Cultural closeness and a common history still play a large part in the development of bilateral relations. The accession to the EU of Central and Eastern European states has altered the existing relations between them and their eastern CIS neighbours, thereby also modifying their interests in the region. Regrettably, the EU's policies towards Russia and the EENP region have not yet been able to provide a playing field able to compensate for this alteration. Thus, the present report studies the various interests (political, security, economic, cultural) which underpin relations between the EU member states and the CIS countries and also discusses the latest developments in EU policies towards a specific CIS sub-region (Russia, the Eastern ENP and Central Asia), thereby providing a broad picture of the type of interests, how they are pursued by the EU member states and where these intersect or clash.
    Keywords: P36 ; P45 ; P48 ; P51 ; P52 ; ddc:330 ; EU countries ; CIS ; ENP ; Internationale Beziehungen ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; EU-Staaten ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: This working document offers a conceptual framework for understanding the processes underpinning the external dimension of EU Justice and Home Affairs (ED-JHA). Practically, it defines how the export of JHA principles and norms inform the geopolitical ambitions of the EU, i.e. the use of space for political purposes, or the control and management of people, objects and movement. The author begins by investigating how the ENP reconfigures the ED-JHA, and then goes on to discuss various conceptual stances on governance, specifically institutionalism, constructivism, and policy instruments. To conclude he traces the evolution of this external dimension, emphasising, whenever possible, its continuities and bifurcations. Overall, the aim is to ascertain the extent to which conceptual designs clarify or advance our knowledge of the contents and rationales of the ED-JHA.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; neighbourhood policy ; international politics ; geopolitics ; migration ; immigration ; European security ; policy instruments ; governance ; Security and Justice ; Justice and Home Affairs ; EU-Politik ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Öffentliche Sicherheit ; EU-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: The CIS countries' EU-related interests are very heterogeneous. The countries themselves differ not only in terms of their geopolitical and geo-economic situations, and how those affect their relations with the EU, but also in their levels of ambition in relation to the Union, as well as their specific sectoral interests. Some Eastern Partners have set full EU membership as their strategic goal; others want to enjoy the benefits of the common free market, and the ambitions of others are limited to developing cooperation in selected areas. Similarly, the EU's policy towards its Eastern neighbourhood is multi-level and very diverse, considering as it must the different characters of mutual relations. The EU and most of its Eastern partners have a sufficient number of common or converging interests to expect reasonable cooperation between the two sides to develop and deepen. However, serious challenges and problems exist that may prevent this positive scenario from being realised.
    Keywords: P36 ; P45 ; P48 ; P51 ; P52 ; ddc:330 ; ENP ; CIS countries ; EU ; Internationale Beziehungen ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; EU-Staaten ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2014-11-17
    Description: Our mandate was to consider the economic feasibility and possible impact of a free trade agreement between the European Union and Georgia. The study has been conducted by a group of researchers from Poland, Ukraine, UK, US and Georgia. All have worked on this project in an independent capacity. The European Commission has also commissioned a similar study for Armenia. Even though the methodology of the two reports is the same, the two studies are independent and the economic feasibility and impact of a free trade agreement with each country is assessed on its own merits. [...]
    Keywords: F15 ; F12 ; O13 ; P48 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; European Neighborhood Policy ; free trade agreement ; institutional harmonization ; EU ; Georgia ; Freihandelszone ; Regionale Wirtschaftsintegration ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Makroökonomischer Einfluss ; EU-Staaten ; Georgien
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 16
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: This paper claims that the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) of the EU, and in particular the elements related to justice and home affairs (JHA), is a complex, multilayered initiative that incorporates different logics and instruments. To unravel the various layers of the policy, the paper proceeds in three steps: firstly, it lays out some facts pertaining to the origins of the ENP, as its 'origins' arguably account for a number of the core tensions. It then presents the underlying logic and objectives attributed to JHA cooperation, which can be derived from the viewpoints voiced during policy formulation. The paper goes on to argue that despite the existence of different logics, there is a unifying objective, which is to 'extra-territorialise' the management of 'threats' to the neighbouring countries. The core of the paper presents the various policy measures that have been put in place to achieve external 'threat management'. In this context it is argued that the 'conditionality-inspired policy instruments', namely monitoring and benchmarking of progress, transfer of legal and institutional models to non-member states and inter-governmental negotiations, contain socialization elements that rely on the common values approach. This mix of conditionality and socialisation instruments is illustrated in two case studies, one on the fight against terrorism and one on irregular migration. Finally, the paper recommends that the EU draft an Action-Oriented Paper (AOP) on JHA cooperation with the ENP countries that indicates how the EU intends to balance the conflicting objectives and instruments that are currently present in the JHA provisions of the ENP.
    Keywords: K40 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; European Neighbourhood Policy ; Justice and Home Affairs ; Neighbouring Policies ; ENP Action Plans ; Extra-territorialisation ; Security ; Borders ; Irregular Immigration ; EU-Politik ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Migrationspolitik ; Internationale Sicherheit ; Öffentliche Sicherheit ; EU-Staaten ; Marokko ; Moldawien ; Tunesien ; Ukraine
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: The purpose of this paper is to examine the economic aspects of EU policy towards its Eastern neighbors in the former Soviet Union. For a long period of time, this region was considered as less important for the EU, as compared to Central and Eastern Europe, which was the subject of a far-reaching economic and political integration offer materialized in two rounds of EU Eastern Enlargements (2004, 2007). However, moving the EU's geographical frontier further to the East and Southeast increased the importance of the CIS region as a potential partner of the enlarged EU. In 2004, East European and Caucasus countries were invited to participate in the European Neighborhood Policy a new EU external policy framework also addressed to the Southern Mediterranean countries. Russia has been attempting to build a strategic political and economic partnership with the EU outside the ENP framework but the content of this relationship is, in fact, very similar to the ENP. A general weakness of the ENP is that there is a lack of balance between farreaching expectations with respect to neighbors' policies and reforms, and limited and distant rewards that can potentially be offered. Thus, making this cooperation framework more effective requires a serious enhancement of the rewards using, to the extent possible, the positive experience of previous EU enlargements. The nature of contemporary economic relations in the globalized world calls for a more complex package-type approach to economic integration rather than just limiting cooperation to some narrow fields.
    Keywords: F15 ; F21 ; F22 ; ddc:330 ; EU-CIS relations ; EU-Russia relations ; EU and Central Asia ; European Neighborhood Policy ; Partnership and Cooperation Agreement ; Wider Europe ; EU-Politik ; Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; EU-Staaten ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Warsaw: Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE)
    Publication Date: 2014-11-17
    Description: This paper studies costs and benefits of institutional harmonisation in the context of EU relations with its neighbors. The purpose of this paper is to outline the likely forms of institutional harmonisation between the EU and its Eastern neighbors and provide an overview of the methodologies that can be used in measuring its effects (costs and benefits). This paper serves as a background for two measurement exercises - one on benefits and another on costs - that are to be undertaken during the second stage of research.
    Keywords: B41 ; F15 ; P33 ; ddc:330 ; Institutional harmonization ; European integration ; European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) ; market access ; non-tariff barriers (NTBs) ; EU-Nachbarstaaten ; Internationale Beziehungen ; Wirtschaftsintegration ; Institutionelle Infrastruktur ; Nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse ; Markteintritt ; EU-Staaten ; GUS-Staaten
    Language: English
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